Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000
6 April 2015

-GBP/AUD rises inside minor impulse 3
-Next buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000

GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 1.9000 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair), the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from last September, 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse 1 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area completed the previous minor correction 2. The next upward impulse 3 recently broke the resistance levels 1.9200 and 1.9400.

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further toward the next buy targets at 1.9800 and 2.000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken former-resistance level 1.9400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4469

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CFTC: large players cut USD longs
6 April 2015

Ассоrding to the most recent CFTC report, released on Friday, large players decreased USD longs on the week ending March 31. However, these figures don't consider the greenback's selloff on the weak NFP on Friday. Net USD longs contracted by 46K contracts to 367K contracts and are now at their lowest level since December 2014.

Despite all that, large players don't trust in euro: net EUR short positions kept on rising for a fourth week in a row and increased to 225K contracts. Short JPY positions fell for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since 2013, while AUD shorts - at their lowest level since September 2014. NZD positions turned bullish for a first time since autumn 2014.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4481

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Apr. 7

Kira Iukhtenko, Elizaveta Belugina

US dollar remains under pressure against all the major currencies following the weak NFP figures released on Friday. The March reading came out twice below the forecast at 126K, lowering expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in June. It seems that we are now standing on the edge of a stronger bearish USD correction. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday added to market pessimism, coming slightly below the forecast. On Tuesday, the US agenda is light, while on Wednesday our attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting minutes release.

EUR/USD found support in the 1.0965 area and may test resistance at 1.1050 as traders are still digesting weak NFP released on Friday. The euro breached the uptrend resistance line last week adding strength to the bulls. Support is at 1.0950 (100-period MA at H4) and 1.0900. A break below this level will reduce powers of the buyers. Further resistance is at 1.1110/20.

GBP/USD pushed above 1.4950 on Monday, trying to recover above the January lows. This is where 38.2% Fibonacci from the Feb-March descent lies. The major strong resistance for the cable is 1.5000 – a daily close above here would confirm the bullish strength. Support lies at 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Services PMI on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat).

AUD/USD met resistance at 0.7700 on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 04:30 GMT. There’s a risk of a surprise rate cut. If RBA lowers key rate, Aussie will fall to 0.7500 and probably lower. Otherwise, the pair will recover to the 55-day MA at 0.7780. Our main scenario is AUD-negative.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4488

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
7 April 2015

Weekly. The market is currently developing a descending corrective wave [4] that is now close to its end. Let’s review the last part of the correction.

Daily. After building the IV triangle, we’ve seen a decline of the pair in a bearish impulse V. When the strong descending wave [3] of V was complete, the market reversed and entered a corrective growing wave [4]. In the coming days we expect this wave to end.

H4. Wave [4] takes a form of a simple rising zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). On the new week we expect the final part of the (C) of [4] impulse to be constructed. The decline will soon follow.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4495

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Apr. 8

By Elizaveta Belugina, Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US dollar started to recover on Tuesday with the USD index rebounding to 98 points. On Wednesday, the market attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes release at 18:00 GMT. It is important to find out, which factors guided the Fed’s fund rate forecasts revision – probably, the document will clarify the real sentiment within the Committee. Any indications that the Fed might still be considering a rate increase in June would pull the investors back into the USD.

EUR/USD is currency forming an ascending triangle. The euro is approaching the lower edge of the figure. Support is at 1.0800. The single currency declined despite better Spanish & Italian services PMIs. The pair slid below important MAs on H1 and H4 charts. Resistance is at 1.0876/78 and at 1.0935. On Wednesday the euro area will release retail sales data at 09:30 GMT, though data from America will be more important.

GBP/USD pulled down from the 1.5000 figure, confirming that the cable bulls still lack the power. Even the strong UK Services PMI failed to render support for GBP. Next bearish targets lie at 1.4730 and 1.4630. Tomorrow we’ll watch the BOE Credit Conditions Survey. On Thursday, do not miss the BOE policy meeting itself.

USD/JPY pushed back above 120 yen on Tuesday, opening the way for more upside. Next levels to watch are 120.40 and 120.80. The Bank of Japan will announce its policy meeting decision tonight – no additional easing is expected before the BOJ April 30 Inflation outlook. Renewed forecasts could justify more stimulus.

Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, supporting the Aussie for a while. However, AUD/USD still looks quite bearish for us. Break below 0.7520 would be a perfect selling signal.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4510

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

US dollar weaked versus other majors
8 April 2015

US dollar eased down versus its main counterparts on Wednesday. However, the greenback is still generally back at the levels where it traded before American weak Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday which reduced the odds of an earlier Federal Reserve’s rate hike.

EUR/USD recovered from 1.0800. GBP/USD recovered from 1.4800 to 1.4860.

USD/JPY once again stepped into resistance on approach to 120.50 and slid to 119.70. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Still, as the central bank has failed to reach its 2% inflation target, there are still expectations of further monetary easing in Japan. According to nation’s finance ministry, Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign stocks and bonds for the third straight month in March.

AUD/USD rose once again approaching resistance at 0.7700.

The main event of the day is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2566

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 8

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0874, TAKE PROFIT 1.1115, STOP LOSS 1.0795

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.38

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4875, STOP LOSS 1.4805

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7715

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2597, TAKE PROFIT 1.2353, STOP LOSS 1.2580 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 130.30, TAKE PROFIT 132.13, STOP LOSS 129.40

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 178.45, TAKE PROFIT 180.15, STOP LOSS 177.60

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7485, TAKE PROFIT 0.7630, STOP LOSS 0.7440

Trade signals:

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9725, TAKE PROFIT 0.9501, STOP LOSS 0.9767

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3645, TAKE PROFIT 1.3390, STOP LOSS 1.3770

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4523

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7600
9 April 2015

-AUD/CHF rises inside minor C-wave
-Next buy target - 0.7600

AUD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the the support level 0.7200 (which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp corrective A-wave from January (belonging to the intermediate ABC correction (2)). The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous B-wave with the strong Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Double-Doji Morning Star (highlighted below).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4542

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000
9 April 2015

-EUR/NZD falls inside minor impulse 3
-Next sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000

EUR/NZD recently reversed down strongly from the resistance level 1.4500 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the middle of last month, as you can see from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The resistance zone near 1.4500 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from February. The downward reversal from 1.4500 completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 – starting the active minor impulse 3, which then broke the daily Triangle from March.

EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets - 1.4120 (low of the earlier impulse wave 1) and 1.4000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4544

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.3300
10 April 2015

-EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.3400
-Next sell target - 1.3300

EUR/CAD today reached the support level 1.3400, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down sharply – after the pair failed to break above the strong resistance zone lying between the former support trendline of the daily down channel from last August (acting as resistance now after it was broken in March), the resistance level 1.3800 and the upper daily Bollinger Band. This resistance zone has been reversing this currency pair from the middle of March.

If EUR/CAD breaks the support level 1.3400, the pair can be expected to fall further toward the next sell target at 1.3300 (intersecting with the support trendline of the weekly down channel from 2014).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4553

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/SGD: buy target - 1.3760
10 April 2015

-USD/SGD completed intermediate ABC correction (2)
-Next buy target - 1.3760

USD/SGD recently reversed up sharply from the strong combined support zone lying between the support level 1.3500 (which also previously reversed the minor correction 4 in February), 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) and the lower daily Bollinger Band – as you can see from the daily USD/SGD chart below. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – thereby completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (2).

USD/SGD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.3630. If the pair breaks this resistance level – it can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 1.3760 (top of earlier wave B).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4555

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
13 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0550 (EUR 308m), 1.0630 (EUR 230m), 1.0670/75 (EUR 825m), 1.0750 (EUR 1.1bln);

USD/JPY: 121.00 (USD 482m);

AUD/USD: 0.7600 (AUD 1.7bln);

NZD/USD: 0.7400 (NZD 337m) 0.7750 (NZD 552m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2578

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 13

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.38

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0279, STOP LOSS 1.0475

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0648, TAKE PROFIT 1.0457, STOP LOSS 1.0692

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4566, STOP LOSS 1.4745

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2350

EUR/JPY: SELL at 128.16, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 128.82

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.7154, STOP LOSS 0.7330

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9745, TAKE PROFIT 0.9882, STOP LOSS 0.9669

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4572

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 14

By Kira Iukhtenko

Demand on the US dollar keeps on rising on Monday with the DXY index approaching the 100 points figure. Poor China’s trade figures pulled the investors back from the commodity currencies into the safe USD – even despite the remaining uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike terms. On Tuesday the market will focus on the retail sales data and the producer price index (12:30 GMT). Upbeat forecasts create room for a broader USD strength: all the indicators promise to have snapped out of the red zone in March.

EUR/USD remains under pressure for a 6th consecutive day in a row. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Tuesday is light, while on Wednesday we’ll watch the ECB meeting and press-conference. No changes in policy are expected, but it is curious to know how Mr. Draghi appraises the current QE effect. Greek question will remain unanswered at least until April 24. Next bearish target for EUR/USD lies at 1.0460, while the upside will likely stay limited by the 1.0700 mark in the current fundamental environment.

GBP/USD hit a fresh 5-year low of 1.4565 on Monday, testing the waters below the March minimums (1.4630). The market will be watching the UK inflation data tomorrow: according to the consensus, CPI stayed flat in March, supporting the deflationary concerns. We review the cable’s prospects as bearish with the May 7 election risk being a kettle bell. Daily close below 1.4630 would pave the ground to 1.4220 in the coming weeks.

Commodity currencies are expected to stay under pressure ahead of the China GDP release on Wednesday. According to forecasts, growth slowed from 7.3% to 7.0% in Q1. AUD/USD is trading on a brink of a precipice, tickling the 0.7550 support on Monday. Get ready to sell Aussie on a daily close below this level.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4584

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 14

Open positions:*

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.60

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4415, STOP LOSS 1.4745

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2575, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2490

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.0620/37

USD/CHF: BUY lower at 0.9710/00

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4590

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: what to expect from the ECB?
14 April 2015

By Elizaveta Belugina

On Wednesday don’t miss the European Central Bank’s meeting (11:45 GMT) & Mario Draghi’s press conference (12:30 GMT).

The ECB is expected to keep its policy unchanged: low rates + buying 60 billion euro of government bonds a month. The market’s attention will focus on what Mario Draghi will say.

As the recent economic data from the euro area showed improvement, Draghi is expected to observe that the quantitative easing program is already bringing positive results. At the same time, it’s clearly too early for him to sound too optimistic and give any comments about reducing the size of QE. Data released recently showed that the euro area’s Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in February after declining by 1.1% in January. The region’s manufacturing PMI also rose in March. This Friday don’t miss Europe’s final inflation figures for March.

Last week ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said that if inflation expectations rise faster than expected towards the ECB’s target of below-but-close-to 2%, the QE program could be stopped earlier than planned, which is September 2016. Draghi will probably try to smooth Mersch’s comments and press the point that tapering QE is for now out of question. This may add pressure on the euro.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4598

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 15

The strength of the US dollar was undermined by lower-than-expected retail sales and producer prices data. However, the weakness in American currency looks temporary and represents an opportunity for short-term longs.

EUR/USD is consolidating below 1.0600. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. As it’s too early for the regulator to give hints on QE tapering, the euro may find itself under pressure. We think of selling its attempts to recover targeting 1.0460 with stop loss at 1.0705.

GBP/USD is trading in the 1.4700 area after there was buying interest in the 1.4600 area. Inflation data came out weak, and this is a bearish factor for the pound. Taking into account uncertainty caused by approaching election, we’ll be selling British currency. On the downside the short-term target is at 1.4500. Main resistance is at 1.4850.

USD/JPY has so far been unable to settle above 120.50/80. However, support at 119.50 and 119.20/00 as well as at 118.70 looks pretty good as well. The pair slipped down this week as Shinzo Abe’s economic advised said that the exchange rate should be closer to 105 yen per dollar. All in all, we may see the test of support before the pair makes another go up.

AUD/USD is indecisive ahead of the release of China’s Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down from 7.3% to 7.0%. The target at 0.7500 is getting closer and closer. Resistance is at 0.7635 and 0.7738.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4599

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0788, STOP LOSS 1.0555

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.20

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2670

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9560, STOP LOSS 0.9802

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4613

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

ECB press-conference: key points
15 April 2015

-ECB left monetary policy unchanged at 0.05% in April;
-QE proceeding smoothly (60B euros per month) and proves to be effective; purchases intended to run until Sept. 2016;
-ECB stimulus needs to be fully implemented to work;
-Draghi sounds rather optimistic on the economy;
-Financial market conditions improved;
-Improved borrowing conditions lift borrowing activity of firms and households;
-Euro zone's exports are becoming more competitive due to the weak euro;
-Lower oil supports the domestic demand;
-Economic recovery to broaden and strengthen;
-Inflation is expected to pick up later in year;
-ECB won't expand QE in case if inflations unexpectedly dips. All the pullbacks will be seen as temporaly.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2593

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 16

Open positions:*

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0401 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT from 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9540, STOP LOSS 0.9745 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2440 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT from 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7663

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7483

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________
*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4629