Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Mar. 23-29

By Kira Iukhtenko

Federal Reserve killed the US dollar rally on Wednesday, lowering economic forecasts and pointing to increased risks. Note that FOMC members’ forecasts for the Fed’s fund rate have been lowered significantly. They now expect rate to reach only 0,62% by the end of the year.

Currency market was strongly disappointed and sold the dollar at a fastest daily pace in 6 years. The long-term USd trend still remains bullish, but we see the short-term prospects worsened. USD will likely be trading sideways with a slight bullish tendency until we see a noticeable progress in economic data.

On the new week the market will pay attention to the inflation figures on Tuesday. Consumer prices kept on falling for 4 months in a row and are expected to stay in the red zone. On Wednesday watch durable goods orders, while on Friday US will publish its final Q4 GDP.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4195

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for March 23-29

By Elizaveta Belugina

The past week brought some correction to EUR/USD. The pair spiked from 1.06/1.07 to 1.1045. Such big move was the result of the fact that the euro is seriously oversold.

The force driving EUR/USD down has diminished on the US dollar part as the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike moved from June towards September. At the same time, the predominant point of view is still that the pair will continue its slide to the parity in the medium term as the ECB’s massive quantitative easing program pulls down European bond yields and the euro. It’s clear though that the pace of the decline won’t be as rapid as it was. Traders will be aware of the short covering risk and we’ll see more of the sideways trade in the coming weeks.

Next week there will be some news about the state of the euro area’s economy: pay attention to the region’s PMI indexes on Tuesday, German Ifo business climate on Wednesday and German GfK consumer climate on Thursday. Data from the US – inflation figures in particular – will be also very important, because traders will continue adjusting their expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike.

The price chart shows that right after EUR/USD tested the 3.5-month resistance line sellers rushed into new short positions and made the pair quickly retrace much of the advance. It suggests that all attempts of the single currency to push higher will likely be rather weak. The area of 1.0950/1.1000 will provide resistance. Support at 1.0500 may hold for a time being. A decisive break lower will send the pair towards 1.0200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4198

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 23

Open positions:

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2640, TAKE PROFIT 1.2900, STOP LOSS 1.2505

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.90, TAKE PROFIT 126.57, STOP LOSS 130.85

Trade signals:*

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0939, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.1040

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4785, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4685

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7710, TAKE PROFIT 0.7914, STOP LOSS 0.7640

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7275, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7330

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7515, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7445

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4212

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar. 24

By Kira Iukhtenko

US dollar opened the week under moderate bearish pressure following the last week's sharp selloff. On the past week USD index formed a strong bearish candle, but failed to form a "bearish engulfing". It confirms that the current USD decline is temporary. This week the market attention will be focused on the US inflation data on Tuesday (12:30 GMT). CPI is expected to come at 0.1% in February - better than in January, but not enough to inspire a fresh USD rally.

EUR/USD recovered above 1.0900 on Monday. Markets await a bunch of PMI indices to be released on Tuesday. The figures are expected to confirm increased optimism due to QE launch in March. If it happens, we'll see EUR/USD recovered up to 1.1500 in the coming days. GBP/USD spent the past week in an extened 1.4635/1.5160 range. Fed and BOE behaved in a similar way, pointing to increased economic risks and delaying rate hike expectations. However, the Fed is still expected to become the first one to raise rates. UK is also expected to release inflation figures tomorrow. Cable clearly remains offered below 1.5000. Break below 1.4800 would increased the pace of sales.

USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle on the past week, descending from 122.00 yen. We turned bearish for the pair following the Fed's meeting. Daily close below 119.80 would trigger a decline to 118.00. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have also gapped higher on Monday. Watch China's HSBC manufacturing PMI tonight - reading above 50 will push the commodity currencies higher from the current levels.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4223

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 24

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 180.20

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1063

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4820, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4715 (revised)

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: SELL at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3575, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3470

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7495 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4233

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
24 March 2015

Weekly. Global corrective wave [4] is now being developped. The final part is now being built.

Daily. The price is now descending in a bearish impulse V of (c) of [IV]. Let's see the markup of the wave V.

H4. The bullish corrective move is taking form of a simple zigzag [a]--[c]. In the coming days a small correction will likely be constructed. Afterwards we expect a final bullish move in a wave [c].

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4245

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 25

By Elizaveta Belugina

The strength of the US dollar has diminished after the Fed’s meeting last week and comments of the Deputy Governor Fisher. Yet, American inflation figures weren’t as bad as some feared. Core CPI, though low, was a bit above forecasts. On Wednesday the market’s attention will be focused on the durable goods orders release at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD has approached last week’s high in the 1.1045 area which coincides with the top Bollinger band on H4. The next resistance is at 1.1100. Data from the euro area was marginally better, so consolidation will continue with buyers around 1.0870, 1.0820 and 1.0750. Don’t miss German Ifo business climate index.

GBP/USD so far has failed to settle above January low at 1.4950. Inflation data in the UK was lower than expected. The pair lacks momentum and may revisit levels just above 1.4700. Only BBA Mortgage Approvals are due in Britain on Wednesday, not much of a market mover.

USD/JPY is below support line of the 3-month uptrend. Daily MACD is declining. Further support is at 119.08/00 and 118.60. Resistance is in the 119.80 area ahead of 120.50. US data is the main driver of the pair.

AUD/USD is testing the 0.7900 handle. The pair has breached the downtrend resistance line and entered the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud. Resistance is at 0.8032 (Jan. 7 low) and 0.8105 (100-day MA). Support is at 0.7850 and 0.7750. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Financial Stability Review early on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4251

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
25 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 1.6bln), 1.0900 (EUR 2.3bln), 1.1000 (EUR 470m), 1.1050 (EUR 1.3bln);

USD/JPY: 118.50 (USD 400m), 120.00 (USD 1.5bln), 121.00 (USD 700m);

USD/CAD: 1.2440/55 (USD 440m), 1.2550 (USD 465m), 1.2570/75 (USD 270m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2485

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 25

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4750

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3700, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3605

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 180.20

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7490 (revised)

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4259

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: how to trade EUR/USD?

25 March 2015

Following the Fed's March 18 meeting many market players stay cautious in trading EUR/USD. That's how the bravest are trading these days:

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039 (entered on March 24)

Morgan Stanley holds LONG from 1.0710, TAKE PROFIT 1.1080, STOP LOSS 1.0710 (entered on March 19)

Credit Suisse holds a SELL LIMIT order from 1.1098, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1255 (entered on March 24)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4260

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar. 26

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index remains under pressure in the middle of the week, but holds above the Tuesday’s low. Watch the Fed’s member Dennis Lockhart speech on Thursday. In early March he made some hawkish comments. Also watch US unemployment claims on Thursday. Markets await the Friday’s final Q4 GDP – figures are expected to be revised up. That could revive USD demand on the market.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.1000 hurdle, trying to fix above the 4-month trend resistance. Market sentiment towards the euro remains quite positive amid better-than-expected figures we’ve seen this week (PMIs, German business climate). On Thursday watch the German consumer sentiment index by Gfk – more positive news could follow. Next bullish target - 1.1100. Break higher would open the way to a stronger resistance at 1.1500.

GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.4900. Market volatility remains high. Next resistance - 1.4950. Anyway, we remain bearish below the 1.5000 handle. On Thursday don’t miss UK retail sales at 9:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat). US will also release BOE Financial stability report tomorrow.

AUD/USD bulls weakened on Wednesday: the pair rolled back below 0.7900. A daily fix above 0.7915 could become a strong bullish signal, while a decisive pullback – a bearish one. We’re waiting for clear signals.

USD/JPY still holds above the 100-day MA at 119.20 as we write. We target 118 yen in the coming sessions. Japan will release a bunch of data on Friday night – don’t miss CPI and retail sales.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4278

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
26 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0820, 1.0850 (888m), 1.0900 (519m), 1.1025, 1.1040 1.1050;

USD/JPY: 118.50, 118.75, 118.80, 119.00, 119.15, 119.50, 120.00 (1.3bn);

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (631m), 0.7800, 0.7900 (1bn);

USD/CAD: 1.2300, 1.2435, 1.2550, 1.2850;

EUR/GBP: 0.7325;

EUR/JPY: 131.00, 131.75, 132.00;

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (524m), 0.7525 (400m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2491

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 26

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4750

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3700, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3605

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 179.30 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7595, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7495

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY, TAKE PROFIT 0.9692

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4284

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

How do large banks trade USD/JPY?
26 March 2015

This is how large banks are now trading USD/JPY these days:

BNP Paribas holds LONG from 120.50, TAKE PROFIT 125.00, STOP LOSS 118.50 (entered on March 19)

Citi Bank holds LONG from 120.79, TAKE PROFIT 125.75, STOP LOSS 118.00 (entered on March 6)

Danske Bank holds LONG from 119.20, TAKE PROFIT 127.50, STOP LOSS 114.00 (entered on December 3)

JP Morgan holds LONG from 113.99, TAKE PROFIT 126.00, STOP LOSS 116.65 (entered on November 2)

Morgan Stanley: SELL LIMIT from 120.00, TAKE PROFIT 115.50, STOP LOSS 121.20 (entered on March 24)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4287

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 27

US dollar was under pressure on Thursday as oil price went up. The decline in American unemployment claims helped the greenback to stabilize. On Friday the spotlight will be on the US final Q4 GDP (12:30 GMT). According to the consensus forecast, the reading will raised from the second reading of 2.2% to 2.4%. Later there will be speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 19:45 GMT.

EUR/USD is trying to push above 1.1000. The US dollar’s weakness has provoked a covering of the massive bearish positions. 200-period MA at 1.1057 is providing resistance at H4 chart. Further obstacle for the bulls will be at 1.1100.

USD/JPY is trying to hang at the 100-day MA at 118.70. The pair declined as demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven increased after the news about Saudi Arabia’s military operation against rebels in Yemen. Japan will release inflation & retail sales data during Friday’s Asian session. The Bank of Japan has adopted a wait-and-see stance, so unless we see some surprising changes, the releases won’t have big impact on the yen.

GBP/USD approached the psychological 1.5000 mark on better-than-expected retail sales figures, but traders don’t think that the Bank of England will change its policy, so resistance held. In this sense, comments of the central bank’s officials on Friday, including Mark Carney, may be important. As long as 1.5000 holds, the picture will be bearish with the pair leaning on support at 1.4700.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4299

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 27

Open positions:*

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 131.70 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7595, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7540

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1025

USD/JPY: SELL at 119.76, TAKE PROFIT 118.11, STOP LOSS 120.21

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9692, STOP LOSS 0.9487

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7245

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4303

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: next sell target - 1.0600
27 March 2015

- EUR/USD reversed from resistance zone
- Next sell target - 1.0600

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 1.100 (which has been reversing the price in the last few trading sessions) and the resistance level 1.1125 (former strong support level which reversed the pair at the end of January, as you can see from the daily EUR/USD chart below). This resistance area was further strengthened by the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from December and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from February.

With the daily Stochastic indicator close to overbought levels, EUR/USD is likely to fall further inside the active minor corrective wave (b) toward the next sell target at 1.0600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.1125.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4304

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.90
27 March 2015

• EUR/JPY completed intermediate correction (2)

• Next sell target - 126.90

EUR/JPY recently reversed down after the pair failed to break above the resistance area lying between the resistance level 130.40 (former strong support level which reversed the sharp primary downward impulse ① in January), the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse (1) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from December. The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the preceding intermediate correction (2) and started the active intimidate impulse (3).

EUR/JPY is likely to fall further inside the active impulse (3) toward the next sell target at the strong support level 126.90 – which stopped the previous impulse (1). Sell stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR (average true range) above the resistance level 130.40.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4306

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: expect consolidation
27 March 2015

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1000, but failed to hold there. This confirms our assumption that bears are ready to sell the single currency on its attempts to recover as they believe that the euro will be declining in the medium term.

Data released in the euro area in the recent days were better than expected. Still, the region offers investors lower yields than the US and this is a serious reason to sell the European currency.

Next week don’t miss flash inflation figures for Germany and the euro area on Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday the European Central Bank will release the accounts of its March policy meeting. A quick reminder: in March the ECB has officially started buying the region’s bonds via quantitative easing program, lifted up 2015 GDP outlook, but cut inflation forecast.

Traders should also be aware of the developments in Greece. The nation is now preparing a list of economic reforms that satisfies its creditors and secures desperately need bailout money transfer. Greek government hopes that the euro area’s finance ministers can meet and approve its reform program as early as next Wednesday. However, the evaluation of Greece’s suggestions by an expert group may take longer, and European ministers may assemble only the week after next.

Technically EUR/USD looks poised for consolidation. Below 1.0800 the pair will likely go down for the retest of at least 1.06. A close above the 1.1050 resistance is needed to open the way to 1.1200. After the consolidation we expect the euro’s decline to resume.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4315

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for March 30 – April 5

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week yen was in demand as a safe haven currency. Although next week tensions may produce less reaction of the market, global growth concerns can make traders keep buying Japanese currency. In addition, don’t forget the repatriation flows of Japanese companies’ income back to the yen with will support this currency in the first half of the week.

At the same time, data released in Japan showed that without the effect of a sales-tax increase last April Japanese core inflation – the Bank of Japan’s key measure – was zero. Although Japanese central bank has stressed it will look through the effect of slumping oil prices, the soft data will keep it under pressure to expand stimulus to achieve the 2% inflation target. Still, though unexpected the inflation release isn’t regarded as a sign that the Bank of Japan will add monetary stimulus at the coming meetings and this may be another reason to expect that USD/JPY will lack bullish momentum.

The bias of the pair next week will also depend on the attitude to the US dollar and American economic statistics. In Japan there will be some data releases, but of medium importance.

USD/JPY spiked down as low as to 118.30. The pair managed to get some support from the 100-day MA at 118.78. However, there are many bearish developments at the chart. It looks like the recovery, if it happens, will be limited by 120.00/50. Below 118.33 support will be in the 117.30/00 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4316