Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 17

By Kira Iukhenko

US dollar index keeps on falling for a third day in a row. US economic data keeps on disappointing the market: on Thursday we’ve seen weak housing market figures. On Friday the market will focus on March CPI (April: +0.2%).

EUR/USD recovered to 1.0770, regaining almost 50% Fibonacci retracement from the early-April downtrend. Growth remains limited by the 1.1050 mark: Greek default fears keep on weighing the sentiment. Greece will have to pay more than 1 billion euros to IMF in early-May. We will see, is the euro strong enough to close above 1.0700 today. Watch the final euro zone’s CPI on Friday (no revision expected). Mario Draghi will speak to IMF on Saturday.

GBP/USD pushed to 1.4940, but stays below the major resistance at 1.5000. We’ll watch the UK labor data tomorrow. Jobless rate is expected to have lowered to 5.6%. Political risk for the pound will increase closer to May 7 election, so be ready to sell the cable higher.

AUD/USD jumped to 0.7800. Aside from the weak USD, Aussie was supported by upbeat Australia’s labor market data. Jobless rate declined to 6.1%, while employment increased above forecast. However, note that AUD/USD is forming trend continuation pattern these days. Watch the 0.7915/30 resistance area.

USD/CAD – “la vedette” of the past few days. The pair plummeted to 1.2250 as the BOC promised not to cut rates. Watch a bunch of Canadian data on Friday (13:30 GMT). Forecasts are mostly upbeat. Yesterday’s drop below the 1.2350mark was a strong bearish signal for the market. Next support – 1.2180 (bottom of the daily Cloud). USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. USD bears are much less aggressive here.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4631

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.3800
17 April 2015

-EUR/NZD reached sell targets 1.4120 and 1.4000
-Next sell target - 1.3800

EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions – reaching the support levels 1.4120 and 1.4000 – both of which were set as the sell targets in our recent forecast for this instrument. The price earlier corrected up to the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of April. The price reversed down from this resistance zone with the strong Japanese candlestick reversal pattern – Evening Star (highlighted below).

If EUR/NZD breaks the support level 1.4000, the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.3800. Strong resistance remains at 1.4200.

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4642

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy target - 180.00
17 April 2015

-GBP/JPY reversed from support level 176.00
-Next buy target - 180.00

GBP/JPY recently reversed sharply from the strong support level 176.00. This support level also previously reversed the price 3 times in January and February, as you can see below. The support zone near 176.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate upward impulse wave (1) from October. The upward reversal from 176.00 completed the previous medium-term ABC correction (2) from December.

GBP/JPY is likely to rise in the active intermediate impulse (3) toward the next buy target 180.00. Buy stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR below the support level 176.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4640

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Is the US dollar rally over?
17 April 2015

By Kira Iukhenko

US dollar was hurt by a range of negative news on the past week. As a result, possibility of the Fed’s rate hike in June has once again come under question. According to the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, 65% of surveyed economists expect the first hike to come in September. Such projections limit the bullish USD prospects in the coming weeks.

The most important question today is whether the first quarter economic slowdown is seasonal or will become a trend. We need to see the April data to get the answer. On the new week the US economic calendar is rather light. On Monday watch the existing home sales, on Thursday - April manufacturing PMI and on Friday – core durable goods orders.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4644

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 20

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9585

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7695

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 129.45

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0385

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.0740, TAKE PROFIT 1.0955, STOP LOSS 1.0680

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4669

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CFTC: speculators cut USD longs
20 April 2015

By Kira Iukhenko

According to the most recent СFTC report, released on April 17, investors keep on lowering long USD positions. Cost of net USD longs fell by 0.6 bln to $39.7 bln. Dollar longs are contracting for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since March 17.

The greenback is retracing lower versus all the major currencies. Even the EUR shorts corrected lower a little bit. Net speculative positions for CHF, NZD and MXN turned bullish. By the way, peso was one of the strongest drivers for the greenback last week.

GBP, JPY and CAD positions remained almost unchanged. The next report will likely reflect loonie’s upside in the second part of the past week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4674

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 21

US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday.

EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic.

GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected.

USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70.

AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4677

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
21 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0730 (EUR 338m), 1.0800/10 (922m), 1.0850 (462m);

GBP/USD: 1.4830-35 (GBP 350m);

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 504m), 118.50 (200m), 118.70 (200m), 121.00 (551m);

USD/CAD: 1.2200 (USD 295m), 1.2250 (657m), 1.2300 (350m);

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 261m), 0.7750 (290m), 0.7800/10 (280m), 0.7855/60 (280m);

NZD/USD: 0.7600 (NZD 441m), 0.7645 (389m), 0.7800 (813m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7225 (EUR 221m);

EUR/JPY: 129.00 (EUR 694m);

AUD/JPY: 92.85/90/93.00 (AUD 225m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2612

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 21

Open positions:*

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.65

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 128.85

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0331

Trade signals:

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4692

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 22

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar

The US currency is struggling to recover following the last week’s selloff with the USD index reaching 98.70 on Tuesday. The US corporate profits are coming out slightly better than expected – in comparison to reduced forecasts. This factor could render some support to the US financial markets in the near term. You should also watch the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday.

EUR/USD

ZEW economic activity indices came out mixed on Tuesday with the German figures missing expectations (53.3 vs. 55.6 expected). On the contrary, euro area index surprised to the upside (64.8 vs. 63.7 expected). Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light tomorrow, while on Thursday the market will focus on a block of PMI indices. Greek problem will remain on the table this week, pressuring the euro. Volatility could jump with every new headline, so watch the news flow.

EUR/USD has already given up 50% of the last week’s gains, falling below 1.0700. Continued USD recovery could put more pressure on the pair. Targets lie at 1.0660 (recent low) and 1.0620 (trend support).

GBP/USD

Cable follows the market trend, descending from the last week’s peak of 1.5050 (55-day MA). We expect the pair to reach 1.4810/00 area in the coming sessions. On Wednesday, the BOE is scheduled to release its meeting minutes. However, we doubt that many Committee members support a rate hike in the current environment.

AUD/USD

Watch Australia CPI on Wednesday – consumer prices are expected to have added only 0.1% in Q1 compared to 0.2% in Q4. We expect AUD/USD to stay under pressure: low inflation supports policy-easing expectations on a May 5 meeting. Technical support is seen in the 0.7700/0.7680 area these days. A break lower would open the way back to 0.7600 and 0.7550.

USD/JPY

The pair was in demand on Tuesday, testing the 55-day MA (119.60) to the upside. Watch the 120.50 resistance line that connects the March and April highs. Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance – deficit is expected to tighten.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4711

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
22 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 375m), 1.0700 (672m), 1.0740 (288m), 1.0800 (1bln);

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 525m), 121.00 (1bln);

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 295m);

USD/CAD: 1.2285 (USD 200m), 1.2375/80 (700m);

AUD/USD: 0.7655/60 (AUD 225m), 0.7800 (687m);

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 1bln), 0.7800 (686m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2615

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 22

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 118.95

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0331

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.15, TAKE PROFIT 129.75, STOP LOSS 127.35

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.7093, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

GBP/JPY: BUY at 178.35, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 177.45

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4719

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Societe Generale: forecasts for majors
22 April 2015

Here are the fresh forecasts by the largest French bank:

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4725

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 23

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0775/1.0800 area created by the line connecting December and April highs. This together with concerns about Greece lets us think that the euro remains a sell. Support is at 1.0682, 1.0660 and 1.0640. Don’t miss the release of the euro area’s key manufacturing & services PMIs at 07:00-08:00 GMT. Slightly better readings are expected.

GBP/USD rose above last week’s highs testing 1.5080 to meet resistance provided by the daily Ichimoku and 55-day MA. Support is at 1.4860. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday were regarded as a bit hawkish. Technically the pound looks good in the short term and may rise up to 1.5160. Be cautious with longs though: sterling is going to have hard times ahead of approaching elections. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY recovered this week from support at 118.50, but met resistance in the 119.75 area (55-day MA) ahead of 120.35/50. Traders start to speculate about the Bank of Japan’s meeting on April 30, and the pair may retest 120.00. On Thursday watch US new home sales and unemployment claims.

AUD/USD is above 20-day MA (0.7680), but below the recent highs (0.7840). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation figures reduced expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut in May. On Thursday China will release HSBC flash manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

USD/CHF jumped as the SNB announced that pension funds can be subject to negative rates. The pair’s consolidating in the descending triangle, so one may set buy stop and sell stop pending orders near its borders.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4737

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 23

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.073, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 119.29 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4930 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9862 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9559 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.42

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0508, STOP LOSS 1.0299

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4743

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Apr. 24

By Kira Iukhtenko

The greenback came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the bearish news flow from the US disappointed the market. Unemployment claims came out above the forecast (295K), while new home sales disappointed to the downside (only 481K). What is important, April manufacturing PMI disappointed to the downside (54.2), raising fears that slow growth is extending into Q2. We’ll watch US durable goods orders on Friday (forecast – upbeat).

EUR/USD trade remains volatile with the pair recovering to 1.0800 in the US opening despite the weaker-than-expected euro block’s PMIs. The pair is still unable to set a clear move. Next resistance lies at 1.0840 and 1.0890/0900, while strong support is seen at 1.0660. Watch April German Ifo business climate index on Friday. Euro group meeting also starts tomorrow – watch the headlines about Greece.

GBP/USD holds below the yesterday’s 1.5080 resistance as the March retail sales disappointed to the downside on Thursday (-0.5% vs. +0.4% expected). Cable is struggling to overcome the 55-day MA these days. We see the road open for a test of 1.5150 and 1.5200 in the coming sessions.

AUD/USD remains supported, but holds slightly below the 0.7800 mark. Resistance lies at 0.7820 and 0.7915/30. USD/JPY failed to overcome the 120.50 resistance on the wave of broad USD selloff. Support is seen at 119.00 and 118.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4753

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 24

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0910 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0659

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4955 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.85 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7755, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7675

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4757

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 521m), 1.0900 (1.1bln)

GBP/USD: 1.5080/90 (GBP 420m), 1.5200 (264m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 738m), 120.00 (1.8bln)

USD/CAD: 1.2000 (USD 700m), 1.2035/50 (700m), 1.2165 (804m), 1.2200 (807m)

AUD/USD: 0.7780/90 (AUD 560m)

NZD/USD: 0.7575 (NZD 283m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2626

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 27

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0988, STOP LOSS 1.0783 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7793, TAKE PROFIT 0.7939, STOP LOSS 0.7703

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 181.80, STOP LOSS 179.60

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.72, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.48

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5088, TAKE PROFIT 1.5317, STOP LOSS 1.5013

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9590, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9640

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.45, TAKE PROFIT 130.79, STOP LOSS 127.85

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4782

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Westpac: forecasts for FX majors
27 April 2015

Analysts at Westpac released their Forex forecasts:

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4783