Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: trade idea
5 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

GBP/USD completed primary ABC correction ②
Next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100
GBP/USD continues to fall after recently reversing down from the strong resistance level 1.5520 (former strong support which reversed the pair in December, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.5520 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from September, upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the narrow daily up channel which has enclosed the (C)-wave of the preceding primary ABC correction ②.

The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the aforementioned primary correction ②. GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active primary downward impulse ③ toward the next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 6

On Friday the main event of the day will surely be the release of the US labor market data at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, US Non-Farm Payrolls have increased in Feb. by 240K after gaining 257K in Jan. American unemployment rate is seen declining from 5.7% to 5.6%. The average hourly earnings’ growth is expected to slow down. NFP above 200K will confirm expectations of the Fed’s hike this summer and will be positive for USD.

EUR/USD remains to be sold. The bearish trend reinforced when the pair broke below the recent lows. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1150 and 1.1215. Thebearswillremaininchargebelow1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi has announced that the quantitative easing program (QE) will start on Monday, March 9. Although much of QE is already priced in EUR/USD and Draghi pointed out that the euro zone’s economy improved a bit, divergence between the ECB’s and the Fed’s monetary policies keeps the euro under pressure. In the first half of the day EUR/USD will likely be consolidating ahead of NFP.

The bulls were eager to buy USD/JPY. There’s still resistance in the 120.25/50 and then 120.80 areas to overcome, but the move up towards 124.00 is approaching. Support is at 118.85/70. Japanese authorities could try to discourage the buyers around 121.00, but is the USD rally is broad, the pair will continue going up. So, it all depends on the US data.

GBP/USD in on the downside and may test support at 1.5190/80. Failure to hold there will provoke decline to 1.5080. Resistance is in the1.5300/25 area. AUD/USD lacks strength to break above 0.7850. Support lies at 0.7720.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3957

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 6

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.0829, STOP LOSS 1.1247 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.86, STOP LOSS 119.33 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 0.9625 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.17, STOP LOSS 133.81 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5290, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5350 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3835, TAKE PROFIT 1.3650, STOP LOSS 1.3915

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.15, TAKE PROFIT 185.0, STOP LOSS 181.50

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7313, STOP LOSS 0.7570

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3962

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: how to trade NFP?
6 March 2015

Currency market will be focused on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, the US economy added 240K new jobs in February versus 257K in January. Unemployment rate is expected to have lowered from 5.7% to 5.6%.

What do large bank expect today?

Credit Agricole: We expect NFP at 245K, unemployment at 5.6%. Investors’ Fed rate expectations will continue to be supported to the benefit of the USD. Negative surprises in NFP can’t be excluded. However, downbeat figures won’t have any sustainable effect unless wage developments weaken considerably. SELL any larger than 25 pip EUR/USD rally following any negative NFP surprise with a stop of at least 100 pips. We target 1.0600 in a few weeks.

Standard Bank: The data could fall a bit short of expectations. The importance of NFP figures seems to be diminishing relative to wage numbers, so a reading above consensus here would send USD up.

Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.6%, while the average hourly earnings will rise by 0.2%.

RBS: NFP will rise by 260K. The unemployment rate will decline to 5.6%. A very strong NFP could push EUR/USD definitively below 1.10.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3963

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: what to expect on the new week?
6 March 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected, on the past week the US currency returned to growth. The US dollar index hit new 11-year highs. Even the dollar/Swiss franc pair pushed to the levels, unseen since Jan. 15. The US currency remains supported by the Fed’s rate hike expectations.

Visual illustration prepared by Wall Street Journal: more than 50% of economists surveyed expect a rate hike in Q2 2015, while another 40% - in Q3 2015.

Economic calendar for the new week is not so busy, but we expect the bullish trend in USD to persist. Watch the US retail sales data on Thursday. On Friday the market will focus on the Producer price index. In January the index fell at a fastest pace in 5 years (-0.8%). New negative reading would be the only threat for the current sustainable USD rally.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3969

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: outlook remains negative

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD has fallen to the new minimums. However, as the net short positions on the euro remain extremely big, the ever-present risk of correction up remains high.

The new week in the euro area will be light on the economic data. On March 9 the Eurogroup meeting will take place. Greece will be on the agenda. A couple of weeks ago the euro zone finance ministers approved a 4-month extension of the Greek bailout program and the initial list of reform which the nation has to conduct in return. On Monday Greece is expected to present the details of these reforms. According to the head of the Eurogroup, Athens can get 7.2 billion euro remaining in its bailout as early as this month if the Greek government starts adopting necessary reforms. Greece is now in a very difficult position as it has to make large debt repayments in March and has practically no cash. If it looks like the nation will get money rather sooner than later, the impact on the euro will be bullish.

[video]

Also on Monday the ECB will start its large-scale quantitative easing program, so divergence in monetary policy between the US and the euro area will remain one of the main themes. The ECB will purchase bonds with negative yields, and this should dispel concerns that it won’t be able to achieve its balance sheet target.

At the same time, while the ECB lowered 2015 inflation forecast justifying QE, its president Mario Draghi predicted improvements in the euro area’s economy and said that the central bank’s actions do bring positive results. This should make the market feel a bit better about the euro.

Although EUR/USD is much oversold, it went below 1.1210 (61.8% Fibo of the advance in 2000-2008). Resistance in the 1.1260/70 area is expected to be strong. Support is at 1.08 and 1.05.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3974

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 9

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.44, STOP LOSS 119.55 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 0.9645 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7627, STOP LOSS 0.7805 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 130.16, STOP LOSS 132.05 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7290 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0888, TAKE PROFIT 1.0763/49

GBP/USD: SELL AT 1.5145, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952, STOP LOSS 1.5225 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3740, TAKE PROFIT 1.3505, STOP LOSS 1.3840

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7420, TAKE PROFIT 0.7215, STOP LOSS 0.7480

GBP/JPY: SELL on rallies

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3992

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: trade idea
9 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov


EUR/USD reached sell target 1.1000
Next sell target - 1.0800

EUR/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking below the support level 1.1000, which was set in our previous report as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on EUR/USD – leading to the sharp sell-off helping the price approach the next major support level 1.0800 (as you can see from the daily EUR/USD chart below).

Considering the strength of the support zone near 1.0800 and given that the daily RSI and the daily Stochastic indicators have both reached the oversold area, EUR/USD can be expected to correct up in the nearest time toward the former support level 1.1000. EUR/USD is likely to reverse down from 1.1000 toward the next sell target 1.0800.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3997

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: buy target
9 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reached buy target 120.500

• Next buy target - 121.70

USD/JPY last weekly broke above the resistance level 120.500 (which stopped previous minor impulse 1) that was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the 5th intermediate impulse (5) from the middle of December (as you can see from the daily USD/JPY chart below). This minor impulse started when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the support level 118.50.

Having recently closed above the resistance level 120.50, USD/JPY can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 121.70 (previous major resistance level which stopped the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) last December). Buys top-loss can be placed below 120.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3999

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CAD: waiting for a rate cut
9 March 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

Canada’s export-oriented economy suffered from the sharp fall in crude oil prices seen in 2014. Annualized Q4 economic growth was above the forecast (+2.4% versus 2% expected), but we have strong doubts that growth will remain so strong in Q1: the effect from lower oil prices hasn’t filtered through the economy yet. GDP growth was driven mostly by inventories. It means that production goes on, but demand for the goods is down. The country posted its largest trade deficit since 2012 in January.

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com

In this environment we expect another Bank of Canada rate cut to follow in the coming months. Regulator left interest rates unchanged in March at 0.75% after cutting by 0.25% in February. Clearly, the BOC monetary policy will depend on the energy markets. According to the most recent Goldman Sachs forecast, crude prices will remain under pressure in spring on the back increased supply. Dovish BOC expectations contrast with the hawkish Federal Reserve: the US central bank is likely to deliver a rate hike in summer 2015.

From the technical viewpoint, USD/CAD faced resistance at 1.2626 – this is the upper border of the medium-term bullish triangle. The current pullback is a good time to buy the pair on dips around 1.2550, targeting 1.2800 and 1.3000.

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4006

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Mar. 10

On Monday EUR/USD has retraced 38.2% of Friday’s decline, but met resistance around 1.0900. There’s bullish divergence on the daily chart and the euro looks oversold. However, the market’s sentiment about the euro is still negative, so corrections up will likely be shallow. Resistance is at 1.0925, 1.0950 and 1.1000 and the euro is to be sold on rallies. Support lies at 1.0800, 1.0760 (Sept. 2003 low) and 1.0558 (April 2003 low).

Markets are looking forwards to the news from Greece which so far isn’t inspiring. Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the nation could be forced into fresh elections or a referendum if euro zone finance ministers reject its plans to ease austerity. The head of European Commission Juncker and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet on Friday.

USD/JPY is now using previous resistance at 120.50 as support. Further support is at 119.80. Japanese economic growth was revised to the downside. On the upside the next target is at 121.85. Buying on the dips is the strategy.

AUD/USD hovers around its 6-year lows of 0.7720, testing the 200-month MA to the downside. The pair awaits another bearish impulse to speed the downside up. Next support will be seen at 0.7630/00. Tonight watch the NAB Business Confidence figures in Australia. What’s more, China will publish inflation figures tonight – producer prices will likely stay in their deep zero.

GBP/USD has recovered some ground on Monday, but holds below the 1.5100 mark following the sharp selloff on Friday. Technical picture turned clearly bearish as the pair closed the past week below 1.5200. Support lies at 1.5030/00 and 1.4950. On Tuesday the BOE Governor Carney will hold a speech at 14:35 GMT in London.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4010

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 10

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.23 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0042, STOP LOSS 0.9719 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7761 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2499 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 130.16, STOP LOSS 132.05 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7290

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5185, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952, STOP LOSS 1.5225 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3740, TAKE PROFIT 1.3505, STOP LOSS 1.3840

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.55, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.85

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7215, STOP LOSS 0.7435

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4015

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD
10 March 2015

Credit Suisse: SELL LIMIT from 1.0985, TAKE PROFIT 1.0620, STOP LOSS 1.1115 (entered on March 9)

BofA Merrill holds SHORT from 1.1290, TAKE PROFIT 1.0765, STOP LOSS 1.1275 (entered on February 24)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.1370, TAKE PROFIT 1.0700, STOP LOSS 1.1000 (entered on February 12)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on February 6)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (entered on February 3)

Crédit Agricole holds SHORT from 1.1340, TAKE PROFIT 1.0600, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on January 28)

JP Morgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on January 26)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0500, STOP LOSS 1.1540 (entered on January 20)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4019

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar. 11

By Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the greenback keeps on rising after the strong US labor market data released on Friday. However, we have to note that the US dollar longs contacted on a week that ended on March 3. Large players have some doubts about the USD rally sustainability. Watch the retail sales figures on Thursday – we could see growth after two months in the negative territory.

EUR/USD is trading at the 2003 lows (1.0720 as we write). The ECB’s QE program has finally been launched yesterday. The ECB Governor Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak tomorrow in Frankfurt.

GBP/USD attempted to recover after a sharp selloff on Friday, but faced resistance at 1.5130. Next levels to watch below the price are 1.5030, 1.5000 and 1.4950. Watch the UK manufacturing data (forecast: + 0.2%, prior: +0.1%) and the NIESR GDP estimate on Wednesday. EUR/GBP fell to its lowest level since December 2007.

USD/JPY pushed to a new high of 122 yen on Tuesday – this is the lowest level since summer 2007. Japan is scheduled to release core machinery orders tonight (forecast – downbeat). Commodity currencies are also doomed for a decline. Aussie dollar holds around the 5-year lows below the 0.7700 mark, while NZD/USD dipped below 0.7250. Watch industrial production data in Chana tomorrow – growth is expected to have slowed from 7.9% to 7.7%. RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision tonight – some economists forecast a rate cut.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4032

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 11

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59 (revised)

GBP/USD: SHORT at 1.5100, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952; STOP LOSS 1.5205

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0042, STOP LOSS 0.9719

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7761

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2560 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.00, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 182.00

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look for the opportunities to SELL

EUR/JPY: Look for the opportunities to SELL in the 130.60/70 area

EUR/GBP: SELL on the rallies

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3705, TAKE PROFIT 1.3425, STOP LOSS 1.3840

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7320, TAKE PROFIT 0.7120, STOP LOSS 0.7365 (revised)

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4037

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: trade idea
11 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

- AUD/USD reached sell target 0.7640
- Next sell target - 0.7500

AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking the support level 0.7640, which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level was preceded by the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of February (which has enclosed the preceding intermediate ABC correction (4)). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from last month.

AUD/USD is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (5) to the next sell target 0.7500 (intersecting with the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last month). Sell stop-loss can be placed one daily ATR above the broken price level 0.7640.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4041

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CAD: sell targets
11 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/CAD reached sell targets 1.3900 and 1.3800

• Next sell targets - 1.3500 and 1.3400

EUR/CAD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the breakout of the support zone located between the support levels 1.3900 and 1.3800 (both of these levels were set as the sell targets in our previous report for this currency pair). The breakout of this support zone accelerated the downward momentum – helping the price break the support trendline of the daily down channel from March of 2014 – which further accelerated the downward movement (as you can see below).

EUR/CAD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse 3 (which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from the end of January) toward the next sell targets – 1.3500 and 1.3400 (target price for the termination of impulse wave 3).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4042

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 12

EUR/USD is hurt by the falling bond yields in the euro area because of the ECB’s QE. The 1.0560 area may offer some support. Corrections will face resistance at 1.0650. Further support is at 1.0500. Data from the US due on Thursday (retails sales, unemployment claims) is expected to improve. This could increase pressure on the euro.

USD/JPY has formed a doji with a long upper shadow on Tuesday unable to close above the psychological level of 122.00 which is now acting as resistance ahead of 124.00. Negative risk sentiment is holding the bulls. Decline below 120.80 will make the pair fall to 120.00 and probably to 119.40.

GBP/USD is affected by the news about the decline in the UK manufacturing & industrial production. Pound is vulnerable for decline to long-term support in the 1.4815 area. The level of 1.5030 will now form resistance. Watch for comments from the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney: in his recent speeches he tended to reassure the markets.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7500 – the bears would like to touch this level. Resistance is in the 0.7720/00 area. Watch Australian labor market data release during the Asian session.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4049

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0660, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0668 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7718

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5020, TAKE PROFIT 1.4814, STOP LOSS 1.5100

EUR/JPY: SELL

EUR/GBP: SELL

GBP/JPY: SELL

EUR/CAD: SELL on rallies

_____________________________________________________________
*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4055

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD: trade idea
12 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

- EUR/AUD reached sell targets 1.4200 and 1.4000
- Next sell target - 1.3700

EUR/AUD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking below two support levels 1.4200 and 1.4000 (low of previous A-wave) - both of which were set in our earlier report as the sell targets for this currency pair. Each of these breakouts added to the bearish pressure on this pair – accelerating the downward momentum and helping the price approach the next major support level 1.3800 – near which the pair is trading at the current moment. This support level earlier reversed the sharp downward impulse in September of 2014 (as you can see below).

If EUR/AUD breaks the support level 1.3800, the price can be expected to fall further to the next sell target 1.3700 (target price for the completion of the intermediate ABC wave (2) from the middle of last December).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4065