Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for Feb. 20

Greece is the main topic for EUR/USD as it made a request for a 6-month credit which got rejected by Germany. The Eurogroup meeting will take place tomorrow. There are many levels to watch on the upside and the downside. Support for euro is at 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1270 and 1.1200. Resistance is in the 1.1440/50 area and at 1.1500. Volatility is going to increase as the fate of Greece will be determined in the hours to come. Most traders still expect a last-minute compromise. The euro area will release flash PMI data on Friday.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5480 (23.6% Fibo of July-January decline) before more resistance in the 1.5550/5600 area. Watch British retail sales figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is negative). Support is at 1.5400 and a fall below this level will jeopardize the ongoing positive tone making the pair vulnerable for a decline to 1.5350 and 1.5300.

USD/JPY is now caught between 119.40 and 118.40. The consolidation will likely continue. AUD/USD is capped by strong resistance at 0.7850. Support is at 0.7720 and 0.7625.

[video]

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3742

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 20

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1383, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1298

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5325, TAKE PROFIT 1.5541, STOP LOSS 1.5335

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 135.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 133.90

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7397, TAKE PROFIT 0.7574, STOP LOSS 0.7342

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.45

Trade ideas:

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2697, STOP LOSS 1.2416

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7475, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3747

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/JPY: trade opportunity
20 February 2015, 10:10

By Dima Chernovolov

• GBP/JPY reached buy targets 180.00 and 182.00

• Next buy target - 186.00

GBP/JPY recently rose sharply – breaking above the two resistance levels 180.00 and 182.00, which were set as the buy targets in our previous technical analysis report for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels continues the active primary Ⓒ-wave from the start of February. The price recently corrected shortly down inside the second intermediate correction (2) of this Ⓒ-wave toward the former resistance level 182.00 (acting as support now after it was broken by the previous impulse (1)).

The price then reversed up from 182.00 with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing (highlighted below). GBP/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at 186.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3757

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CHF: trade idea

20 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• NZD/CHF breaks resistance level 0.7090

• Next buy targets - 0.7200 and 0.7300

NZD/CHF has been rising steadily in the last couple weeks – in line with our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke above the resistance levels 0.6900 and 0.7000, which were set previously set as the buy targets for NZD/CHF. The breakout of these resistance levels accelerated the upward movement of this currency pair – helping NZD/CHF break above the next pivotal resistance level 0.7090 (former major support level which reversed the pair sharply in May of 2012 and in August of 2013, as you can see from the weekly NZD/CHF chart below).

NZD/CHF is likely to continue to rise strongly in the coming trading sessions toward the next buy targets 0.7200 and 0.7300. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the broken resistance level 0.7090.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3755

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD awaits Yellen's testimony
23 February 2015

By: Kira Iukhtenko

According to the Federal Reserve's minutes of Jan. 27-28 meeting, many FOMC members think that the interest rates should stay near 0 for a longer time period because of low inflation and other risks. The central bank wants to see signs of continuing economic growth and recovery in inflation before raising rates. Policy minutes became a negative surprise for the dollar bulls.

Does it mean that we have to drop our June rate hike expectations? I’d better not judge hastily. The labor market is showing an upbeat dynamics over the past moths. What’s more, a stronger oil price recovery in the coming months would support the US inflation.

On the new week the US currency is expected to strengthen ahead of the Janet Yellen’s testimony on Tuesday, Feb. 24. She could pay attention to the positive economic developments that took place over the past weeks. Yellen is unlikely to discuss hate hike terms, but “hawks” would be grateful for any optimistic comments. You should also pay attention to the consumer price index on Thursday and to the preliminary Q4 GDP on Friday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3758

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: another eventful week
23 February 2015, 10:34

Another eventful week is in store for the euro. On Monday Germany will release Ifo Business Climate index. On Tuesday the euro zone’s final inflation data for January will be published: according to the initial estimate, consumer prices contracted by 0.6%. This was the first decline since late 2009.

In addition, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak on Tuesday and Wednesday. Pay special attention to the second one as Draghi will testify to the European Parliament.

On Thursday the ECB will conduct the third round of TLTRO. Within this program the ECB will provide liquidity to commercial banks of the region so that they could lend to the real economy. Usually TLTRO leads to lower long-term interest rates and weakens euro. The higher is the demand for credit from commercial banks, the stronger is the bearish impact on euro. On Friday watch important economic data from Germany and France.

Despite risks associated with Greece, market players are rather calm and may remain so supporting the single currency. Temporary solution of the Greek problem will be positive for the euro. Resistance for EUR/USD lies at 1.1500 and 1.1650. Support is at 1.1200 and 1.1100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3760

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: expect further consolidation
23 February 2015

Last week USD/JPY consolidated: the pair was sold on approaches to 119.50 and bought in the 118.20/40 area. The sideways movement of the pair may continue. On the one hand, US dollar breached December-January triangle to the upside which is theoretically a medium term positive signal. Resistance is at 120.82 and 121.84. On the other hand, decline below the breached triangle in the 118.00 area will give the bears power to test 117.30/00.

The minutes of the January Fed’s meeting turned out to be more dovish than expected. American data aren’t very sustainable. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, has improved its assessment of Japanese economy. In the last months of 2014 Japan has finally emerged from recession. Recently Abe’s government has announced a year of reforms.

On Monday Japan will release the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s meeting. On Friday don’t miss important statistics from Japan including inflation, retail sales and industrial production.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3761

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: trade idea
23 February 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/AUD reverses from support level 1.9600
Next buy target - 2.0000
GBP/AUD earlier reversed down from resistance level 2.0000, intersecting with the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from September of 2014. The latest downward correction from 2.0000 today reversed up from the support level 1.9600 (former resistance from the start of this month, which also reversed this currency pair last week, as you can see from the daily GBP/AUD chart below).

The pair is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target 2.000 inside the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of November. If the downward correction resumes - GBP/AUD will most likely fall to the nearby support level 1.9400 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse 3) – from where the price is expected to reverse up toward 2.0000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3774

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: target at 120.50
23 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reversed from support zone near 118.50

• Next buy target - 120.50

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the combined support zone lying between the following support levels: support level 118.50 (former resistance level which reversed the price multiple times in the second half of January), the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily Triangle from December (acting as support now after it was broken earlier) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the strong support level 116.00 (which reversed the pair with the daily Bullish Engulfing in January and in last December, as you can see below).

USD/JPY is expected to continue to rise in the coming trading sessions toward the next buy target 120.50 (which reversed the price strongly on the 12th of February).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 24

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2501

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7510, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7450

Trade signals:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5588, STOP LOSS 1.5328

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.10, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.50

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7385, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7465

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

_____________________________________________________

*Traders apply trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3793

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
24 February 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1285 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.1300 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.1315 (EUR 543m)

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 428m), 118.50/60 (USD 290m), 119.55 (USD 300m), 119.75 (USD 517m)

AUD/USD:0.7800/10 (AUD 325m)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2323

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: trade idea
24 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

EUR/GBP reached sell targets 0.7380 and 0.7340
Next sell targets - 0.7300 and 0.7200

EUR/GBP has been falling sharply in the last 2 weeks – reaching the two sell targets that were set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair (0.7380 and 0.7340). The price recently corrected shortly up to test the former support level 0.7430 (acting as resistance now after it was broken by the active minor impulse earlier this month) – from where it reversed down sharply and continues to fall at the time of the writing.

The pair is currently approaching the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from the middle of 2011 (as you can see from the weekly EUR/GBP chart below). If EUR/GBP breaks and closes below this support trendline, the pair can then fall to the next sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7200 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3801

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: next sell target
24 February 2015

by Dima Chernovolov

• AUD/USD reversed from resistance zone

• Next sell target - 0.7640

AUD/USD yesterday reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7860 (which also previously reversed the price at the start of February, as you can see below), the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the end of the earlier intermediate correction (4) (which stopped in the middle of January), and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal form this resistance zone created the Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Dark Cloud Cover.

With the daily RSI still trading in the neutral territory, AUD/USD will most likely continue to fall in the nearest time - in line with the strong downtrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next sell target 0.7640 (which reversed the price twice earlier this month).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3802

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD
24 February 2015

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.100, STOP LOSS 1.1451 (entered on Feb. 24)

Bank of America Merill Lynch is ready to SELL from 1.1290, TAKE PROFIT 1.0765, STOP LOSS 1.1451 (entered on Feb. 23)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.1370, TAKE PROFIT 1.0700, STOP LOSS 1.1470 (entered on Feb. 6)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on Feb. 6)

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 1.1390, TAKE PROFIT 1.1105, STOP LOSS 1.1505 (entered on Feb. 5)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.1450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0800, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on Feb. 3)

Crédit Agricole holds SHORT from 1.1340, TAKE PROFIT 1.0600, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on Feb. 3)

JPMorgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on Jan. 26)

Danske Bank holds from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.1940 (entered on Jan. 20)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3803

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Feb. 25

EUR/USD is leaning to the downside. Support is at 1.1260 and 1.1200. Greece has revealed the list of reforms. According to the European Commission, this is a valid starting point. However, investors see now that Greek question won’t be solved soon, so upside potential for the euro is limited. The ECB president Mario Draghi will make speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may comment on monetary policy.

GBP/USD remains capped by the 1.5480 resistance (23.6% Fibo). Next resistance lies at 1.5589 and 1.5800, support – at 1.5370. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney said today UK inflation turn negative in the nearest future, but it’s expected to recover quickly. BOE notes stable wage growth. Carney will also speak tomorrow at 10:00 GMT. On Thursday watch the second Q4 GDP estimate (no changes expected).

USD/JPY keeps trading sideways. The pair rose above 119.40. This opens the way up to 119.60 and 120.00/25. Support is located at 118.33/27 and buyers should become active in case of decline to this point. Below 118.27 a decline towards 117.30 is possible.

Aussie dollar keeps on consolidating above the 0.7700 mark. However, the pair was once again rejected by resistance at 0.7850 on Monday. On Wednesday watch the release of China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3809

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 25

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5588, STOP LOSS 1.5328

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7735

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 182.50

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7490, STOP LOSS 0.7540

Trade signals:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.17, TAKE PROFIT 135.94, STOP LOSS 133.50

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7380, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7435

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4230, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4345

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2545, TAKE PROFIT 1.2353, STOP LOSS 1.2620

USD/JPY: Look to BUY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3814

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Feb. 26

EUR/USD remains mostly flat. The pair’s waiting for fresh catalysts. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi is to speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may make some comments on monetary policy. On Thursday Germany releases a set of data on unemployment numbers, retail sales figures and Gfk consumer confidence data. The euro area will publish business climate and M3 money supply data. Meanwhile, the ECB releases the targeted LTRO amount at 10:15 GMT. The outlook is neutral/negative. Thepairmaystaystuckinthe1.1440/1.1260 area.

On Tuesday USD/JPY formed a long spike up reaching 119.80. Then cane a selloff which brought the pair down to the 100-meriod MA on the H4 chart. Resistance is at 119.60 and 120.00. Support is in the 118.30 area ahead of 117.30. Uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike points at sideways trading. There will be no news from Japan until Friday, so pay attention to the US economic figures, especially inflation data due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trading above the previous resistance at 1.5480. The Bank of England’s Martin Weale said that rates may need to rise earlier than markets expect. Although Weale has already said this recently, this time his words encouraged the bulls as the Fed’s comments were, on the contrary, very moderate. The UK will release revised Q4 GDP data at 09:30 GMT. According to the initial estimate, the nation’s economic growth has slowed down to 0.5%. Technically pound is trying to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud, although it seems that it lacks strength. The close above 1.5520 would be a positive signal. Next resistance is at 1.5580 (100-day MA) and 1.5620 (Dec. 31 high). Support is at 1.5400 and 1.5350.

AUD/USD pushed to 0.7900, gaining more than 70 pips on Wednesday. Aussie was supported by upbeat Chinese HSBC PMI that has finally overcome the 50 points waterline. The pair recovered above 38.2% Fibonacci from the late-January decline, confirming a local bottom at 0.7630. Next resistance to watch lies at 0.7960 and 0.8000. Focus on the Australian capital expenditure data on Thursday (-1.7% expected versus 0.2% prior) - they could spoil the bullish picture. All the other market drivers this week will refer to the US dollar.

USD/CAD extends the decline for a second day in a row, testing the 1.2400 support on Wednesday. Next support to watch lies at 1.2350. Canada (alongside with the United States) will release inflation data on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3830

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 26

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5621, STOP LOSS 1.5395

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7790

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 183.40

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.90

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2355, TAKE PROFIT 1.2697, STOP LOSS 1.2294

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7355, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4230, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4345

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7510, TAKE PROFIT 0.7690, STOP LOSS 0.7460

USD/JPY: BUY lower

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3833

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CAD/JPY: buy opportunity

26 February 2015

• CAD/JPY reached buy target 96.00

• Next buy targets - 98.00 and 99.00

CAD/JPY recently reversed down after the price reached the resistance level 96.00, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this instrument. The downward reversal from this resistance level completed the preceding intermediate impulse (1) from the end of January and started the latest intermediate correction (2). This downward correction then stopped near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the aforementioned impulse (1) (as you can see from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The pair is currently approaching the resistance level 96.00.

If CAD/JPY breaks the resistance level 96.00, the price can then rise in the active intermediate impulse (3) (belonging to the primary Ⓒ-wave from last month) to the next buy targets – 98.00 and 99.00 (forecast price for the termination of impulse (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3841

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: bulls keep pressuring
26 February 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The bulls have managed to steal the initiative. Despite the break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border, the currency pair has failed to consolidate in the negative zone. The bulls counterattack has ended up in an upward break through the cloud and, apparently, they are aiming to fix above the 78th figure.

They will be supported by the cloud upper border and the Tenkan and Kijun lines.

Oscillators have also turned upwards, indicating bullish sentiment of the market participants.

Technical levels: support – 0.7830; resistance – 0.7930.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7830; SL — 0.7810; TP1 — 0.7900; TP2 — 0.7930.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3836