Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Engulfing"
3/9/2017

We’ve got a bullish “Engulfing”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver another decline.

There’s a “High Wave” on the Moving Averages. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the price is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12801

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as resistance
3/9/2017

The price reached the upper “Window”, so we’ve got a possible “Engulfing” pattern. So, the lower “Window” is likely going to act as a support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the last high.

There’s a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12802

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver new local high
3/9/2017

We’ve got a wedge in wave . Also, there’s a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so the price is rising in wave [ii]. In this case, we’re likely going to see another test of 6/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline.

There’s a zigzag in wave (b). Yesterday the price formed a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, so bulls are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [ii]. The main intraday target is 5/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12803

 

[riki143]

Review on Gareth Burgess's book
3/9/2017

In the past weeks, we were waxing poetic in our book review section and totally forgot about practical trading tips. We hasten to make reparation for our wrongs by presenting you the book covering essential elements of technical analysis – Trading and investing in the Forex market using chart techniques.

It was written by experienced trader – Gareth A. Burgess, who has been trading FX market over 10 years. The author bought his international fame with his witty recommendations and amazingly accurate predictions on the currency movements. According to him, the chart analysis as a very efficient way of finding great investment opportunities. The key purpose of technical analysis is to find the optimal point at which to enter the market to extract the maximum profits. One would think that nothing couldn’t be any easier. Here is the chart; there are technical indicators giving trading signals – trade and make money. But it is not that easy in practice; the simple knowledge of technical tools is not a recipe for success. What you need is to learn to interpret the price action correctly, and at this stage, numerous techniques and signals that are available today complicate the process of analysis and lead to trading failures. That’s why Mr. Burgess in his book suggests focusing on the classical trading tools such as candlestick analysis, support/resistance/trend lines identification, trading with basic technical indicators, ext. All of them are very straightforward and visually very well displayed on a technical chart. All you need is to master their operational modes, to learn their “language” in order to understand their trading signals. And I assure you with Burgess’s book you will have no trouble dealing with it.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12804

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.5200
3/9/2017

EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.5200
Next buy target - 1.5450
EUR/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.5200 (top of the previous corrective waves a and (ii)), which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.5200 accelerated the c-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from the start of February – which then broke the next resistance level 1.5260.

EUR/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.5450 (which stopped the previous upward correction (ii) from last October).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12805

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke round resistance level 1.4000
3/9/2017

EUR/AUD broke round resistance level 1.4000
Next buy target – 1.4280
EUR/AUD recently broke above the round resistance level 1.4000 (which also earlier reversed the price at the start of this month, as you can see from the daily EUR/AUD chart below). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4000 accelerated the c-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the end of February.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 1.4280 (which stopped the previous corrective waves A and (2) in January, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12806

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound took a rest
3/10/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern has been realized. If prices reach the convergence zone, there can be a pullback towards 38.2% and 50% levels of the CB wave (1.2355 and 1.243 respectively). A breakout of the support at 1.2135 can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern (1.206).

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the prices are trading in the range of 1.214-1.2195 levels. There is also a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A breakout of the upper limit of the trading range can lead to the development of correction. In contrast, a successful test of the support can lead to the continuation of the downward movement.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,2195 SL 1,214 TP 1,2355,

SELL 1,214 SL 1,2195 TP 1,206.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12808

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls caught the Crab
3/10/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, an intermediate 127.2% target in the Crab reversal pattern has been fulfilled. The "bulls" should break the March high and support at 1.3572 to continue their rally. If they fail to do, it will lead to the development of the correction.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a breakout of the support at 1.3485 can lead to the rollback towards 1.3425. At the same time, there is still an upward trend, so you can use corrective movements for the opening of long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3425 SL 1,3380 TP 1,3572.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12809

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: expected correction
3/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7490; resistance – 0.7560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7520; SL — 0.7500; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7590.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support of daily a daily Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12810

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar going to new highs
3/10/2017
Technical levels: support – 114.90; resistance – 116.30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 114.90; SL — 114.70; TP1 — 116.00; TP2 — 116.30.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed the new local highs.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12811

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: price going to consolidate
3/10/2017

The price faced a support at 1.0520, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Bulls reached a resistance at 1.0619 afterwards, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test an area between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0552. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640.

Bulls found a resistance at 1.0621, so there’s a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.0578 – 1.0569. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0621 – 1.0639.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12812

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears pushing the price lower
3/10/2017

The price is consolidating in a range of a support area between the levels 1.2179 – 1.2048. So, the pair is likely going to test a support at 1.2120 in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231.

The 34 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2138 – 1.2120 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12813

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 10
3/10/2017

Lull before the NFP data… The Asian session was light for news and data flow. We got upbeat Australian housing data and a bit disappointing Japan’s MoF Business outlook showing a slide in business sentiment and thereby highlighting the need for BoJ’s policy accommodation. USD/JPY spiked to 115.30. The current rebound may extend higher towards 115.60/116.00 if US labor market report is strong.

Aussie and kiwi both edged up against the US in the Asian session. They might erase these gains in the course of European and American sessions as there is a great probability that NFP will be in line with market expectation. Commodities remain under pressure this week with iron ore, copper, gold and oil prices sliding down. This has been the key driver of AUD underperformance. Technically, a move above 0.7560 level (50-day MA) could lead to a further upsurge. If prices fail to consolidate at present levels and return to 0.7510 area, there could be a drop towards the support at 0.7430.

EUR/USD extended its overnight gains haven risen to 1.0595. This happened thanks to optimistic Draghi (ECB President) who suggested that the ECB door could be opening to the possibility of a change in policy stance in the nearest future. He also noted that there is no urgency in taking additional easing measures as the threats to the recovery of the Eurozone economies have become less severe. For the present moment, the pair moved into a consolidation phase. Here it should be noted, though, that the euro will have to work up a sweat to move higher as investors would rather buy USD ahead of the Fed’s March meeting. Don’t miss Germany’s current account data that should be released before the NFP data.

USD/CAD peaked above 1.3530 overnight as Brent oil futures slid to their two-month low ($51.50). In the Asian session, Loonie regained its strength; USD/CAD fell to 1.3500.

GBP/USD dropped to 1.2160. Prime Minister Theresa May still has to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. The bill allowing her to do so has yet to pass through Parliament, bypassing the opposition in the upper house. Keep an eye on the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output data coming at 11:30 am MT time. All these readings are expected to fall short of market’s expectations. If this forecast is realized, GBP may swoop towards 1.2100.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12814

 

[riki143]

NFP forecasts from banks
3/10/2017

The US Labor department releases its February jobs report at 3:30 pm MT time. The market’s majority expects the following figures: NFP – 200K, unemployment rate – 4.7%.

Without further ado, there are some forecasts from banks and some comments from the WSJ analysts.

Bank’s forecasts

Perks from the Wall Street Journal analytical team

Average hourly earnings – a 0.3% monthly gain is expected

It was a raw spot in the January job report. This month many economists expect a modest increase in data. An uptick in the hourly earnings figures would certainly add to the Fed’s confidence that US inflation rate is headed higher.

Non-farm payrolls

In January, the pace of job creation has increased significantly (the last month headline – 227K). Market forecasters expect February’s reading to be in line with the recent trend, though there are some signs that hiring could decrease. It might happen because of the unusual winter weather in the US that could reduce hiring in such weather-vulnerable sectors as construction. Another factor that could potentially trim today’s figures – Donald Trump’s January order aiming at the reduction of hiring pace. The order came too late in the month, so it couldn’t affect last month payrolls data, but it might be reflected in today’s job report.

Unemployment

The previous month update was 4.8%. unemployment rates were stable despite the continued increase in the number of jobs created. It’s mainly because the workforce-participation rate has stabilized after a long decline.

Our chip in

After ultra-strong ADP report, the market is heavily positioned for a March hike. A headline in line with expectations will be met with a quite muted reaction. A weaker than expected print will probably result in a market’s backlash and a surge in volatility.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12817

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test "Window" once again
3/10/2017

The last “Engulfing” and “Three Methods” patterns pushed the market higher. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction.

There’s a bearish “High Wave”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. However, if we see a pullback from these lines, bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window”.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12818

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: broken "Window"
3/10/2017

Bulls went through the “Window”, so the price is rising. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to test this “Window” again. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

We’ve got a bearish “Doji” at the last high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed enough. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a new bullish price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12819

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00
3/10/2017

USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00
Next buy target – 117.00

USD/JPY recently broke above the resistance level 115.00 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 115.00 accelerated active minor impulse wave (iii) from the end of February. The price earlier broke above the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 117.00 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12820

 

[riki143]

CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70
3/10/2017

CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70
Next buy target - 115.40

CHF/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 113.70 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) in February, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 113.70 follows the earlier breakout of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern from January. The breakout of this Falling Wedge and of the resistance level 113.70 accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③.

CHF/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 115.40 (which stopped the previous long-term upward impulse ① in December).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12821

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, March 13th
3/11/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 89 456 ? + 44 668 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0691; 1.0715; 1.0741; 1.0770
Closest support levels 1.0651; 1.0615; 1.0593; 1.0569
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0651, with target points at 1.0615 and 1.0593
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0691 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0715 and 1.0741


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 631 ? - 84 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2206; 1.2275; 1.2295; 1.2331
Closest support levels 1.2139; 1.2100; 1.2075; 1.2047
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2139, with target points at 1.2100 and 1.2075
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2206 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2275 and 1.2295


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 152 ? - 20 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3479; 1.3503; 1.3537; 1.3589
Closest support levels 1.3443; 1.3423; 1.3374; 1.3335
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3443, with the target points at 1.3423 and 1.3374
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3479 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3503 and 1.3537


AUD/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 199 ? + 220 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7551; 0.7575; 0.7593; 0.7616
Closest support levels 0.7524; 0.7499; 0.7462; 0.7435
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7524, with the target points at 0.7499 and 0.7462
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7551 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7575 and 0.7593

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12822

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls are doubting in their strength
3/13/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, within the inverted "Head and shoulders" and "Bat" patterns, a pin bar was formed. It is a signal of the bulls' weakness. If the "bears" manage to keep quotes below the 114.65 level, the prices may fall towards the upper boundary of the downward trading channel (112.7).

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the breakout of the support at 114.65 will push the quotes lower towards 114 and 113.8. The nearest resistance is located near the 115.15 mark.

Recommendations:

SELL 114,65 SL 115,2 TP1 113,8 TP2 112,7,

BUY 115,15 SL 114,6 TP 116,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12824