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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

What time frame is the best for trading Forex?
3/6/2017

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There is no clear-cut answer to this question. Every Forex trader has his/her own preferences, trading techniques, strategies. Some traders need an energy boost, excitement, special drive that comes from trading in and out of the market multiple times a day. Others prefer serenity, care about their nerves; well, let’s say they are mildly interested in trading as the source of getting money. They consider it more like a hobby, so, they prefer trading on weekly, daily timeframes, not obliging themselves to be glued to the screens all the time.

From our train of thought, it is easy to come to the following conclusion: there are no “best” timeframes, there are timeframes that suit you the best, that works best for you.

But I bet you’re unsatisfied with such response. Unfortunately, we don’t know the readers of our public in person. But even if we knew, we wouldn’t be able to identify your personality. Because you know yourself better than some strangers from Bazooka analytical department. Here what we do, we will list some advantages, specificities of trading on various timeframes.

Let’s start with the classic – daily and 4-hour timeframes.

Advantages Disadvantages
- these two timeframes work the best with the price action strategies. And we would highlight the following advantages of trading on these timeframes:

- act as natural news filter (price action normalizes throughout the day and creates a smoother market to trade, whereas on lower timeframes you’re exposed to significant swings and troughs);

- easier to develop a directional bias (because daily and 4-hour time frames allow you to obtain a general overview of the market situation; there’s a reason why even scalpers look at higher timeframes to identify their support and resistance levels);

- fundamental analysis becomes very handy; these timeframes help you to be more objective in choosing a direction of the prices since you make your decisions based on economic releases, political event and other factors that you can’t control;

- no need to spend lots of time in front of the screen.

-transaction costs can be really high;

- there is an overnight risk;

- you lose some trading opportunities that appear throughout the day (you earn less than you could while trading on lower timeframes);

- demands lots of patience and self-control from the trader.

Trading on 1-minute/15-minute/30-minute charts

Advantages Disadvantages
- there are lots of profitable trading opportunities, that you won’t miss trading on the lower timeframes;

- there is no overnight risk;

- you can prevent yourself from significant losses

- transaction costs are rather high;

- it is more difficult mentally and emotionally;

- you should keep a constant track of your trades.

Choose your best timeframe, earn lots of money and bon vivant, dear traders!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12746
 
USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" pushing correction lower
3/6/2017

0603usdjpyH4.png


The last “Shooting Star” has been confirmed. In this case, the price is likely going to test the closest support in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the nearest local resistance.

0603usdjpyH1.png


We’ve got a “High Wave” on the 89 Moving Average, but a confirmation of this pattern is quite weak. Therefore, we could have a local correction towards the last “Three Methods”, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12747
 
NZD/JPY broke support zone
3/6/2017

NZD/JPY broke support zone
Next sell target – 78.90
NZD/JPY recently broke below the support zone lying between the key support level 80.50 (which has been reversing this price from the start of December) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of November. The breakout of this support zone should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 1 from the end of January.

NZD/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 78.90 (intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned upward impulse from November).

NZDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-06_1650_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12748
 
AUD/NZD broke major resistance level 1.0740
3/6/2017

AUD/NZD broke major resistance level 1.0740
Next buy target - 1.0900
AUD/NZD continues to rise sharply after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 1.0740, which has reversed numerous sharp upward impulse waves from the end of July, as can be seen from the daily AUD/NZD chart below. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January.

AUD/NZD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0900. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 1.0740.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12749/AUDNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-06_1648_PM_(1_day).png[/IG]

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12749]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12749[/URL]
 
USD/JPY: the yen is at the crossroads
3/7/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a struggle for the important level of 114.03. If the "bulls" manage to break this level and test the resistance at 114.65, the risks of implementation of "Head and Shoulders" and "Bat" patterns will increase substantially. In contrast, the return of the pair to the borders of the downward trading channel will be a signal of the bears' strength.

Screenshot_2017_03_07_07_46_09.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "Shark" pattern transforms into 5-0. A successful test of the support at 113.65 will activate the AB = CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near the 112.9 level.

Screenshot_2017_03_07_07_46_23.png


Recommendations:

BUY 114,65 SL 114,1 TP1 115,65 TP2 116,8,

SELL 113,65 SL 114,2 TP 112,9.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12753
 
NZD/USD: kiwi sank to the bottom
3/7/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, the quotes moved beyond the 0.7135-0.724 consolidation range. This allowed to open shorts and lock in profits. If the "bears" manage to keep quotes below the 0.7 level, it can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern. In contrast, the bulls' win can lead to the development of the consolidation in the 0.7-0.713 range.

Screenshot_2017_03_07_07_46_37.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, if quotes move outside the downward trading channel, it will create prerequisites for correction in the direction of the 113% target in the "Shark" inverted pattern. But first, "bulls" need to test the resistance at 0.7045.

Screenshot_2017_03_07_07_46_51.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12754
 
EUR/USD: euro supported by SSA
3/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0570, 1.0520; resistance – 1.0620, 1.0650.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0560; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0520; TP2 – 1.0450.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span B; a new weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud on the support of Senkou Span B.

01-eurusdh4(100).png


ore:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12755
 
USD/JPY: weakness of Bulls
3/7/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.50, 113.30; resistance – 114.00/20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 113.90; SL — 114.00; TP1 — 113.30; TP2 — 113.00.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the channel is narrow; the prices are Tenkan and Kijun; the correction may continue deeper.

04-usdjpyh4(82).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12756
 
Morning brief for March 7
3/7/2017

Many a mickle maks a muckle. That’s how I would describe the past sessions. A few geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula, investors’ jitters ahead of an imminent FOMC meeting next week, and traditional chit-chat about Trump’s upcoming administrative orders are more than enough to revive the market’s subdued movement.

EUR/USD spiked to 1.0635 overnight but failed to consolidate in that area after market participants knew that Alain Juppe had decided not to run for the presidency any longer. Evidently, this act was interpreted as increasing the chance of anti-EU Marin Le Pen’s win in the first round.

The major event of the day was the Reserve Bank of Australia rate announcement. Well, I hesitated to call it like this because it didn’t result in significant moves on the AUD/USD technical chart. The quotes traded higher to 0.7630 after the announcement. There might a pullback towards 0.7510 if prices fail to break the resistance at 1.7640.

Kiwi edged up to almost 0.7010 following the pattern of its Australian counterpart. Today’s focus will be on Global Dairy Trade price index that is believed to be a very important gauge for NZD value. BNZ officials note that recent indicators and fundamentals point out at the price dip. So, there might be some further retracements towards 0.6950 support level. If there is an upsurge to 0.7050, we may believe that the immediate pressure has eased.

The yen won back some earlier losses having slid to 113.80 from 114.70 against the greenback probably on the risk-averse sentiments of investors fearing ignition of the political conflict in the Asian region. On the economic front, there is nothing to report for the present moment.

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Samson's Fight with the Lion by Lucas Cranach the Elder

Loonie was Samson killing the USD growth. USD/CAD dipped to 1.3390 in the past session. The hero might lose his “hair” today if we get upbeat US economic releases are stronger than Canadian trade balance data which will be released at 15:30 MT time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12757
 
EUR/USD: bearish "Thorn"
3/7/2017

7-3-2017-EUR-H4.png


We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern near a resistance at 1.0640, so the market is likely going to test an area between the nearest support at 1.0552 and the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640.

[I>MG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12759/7-3-2017-EUR-H1.png[/IMG]

The price is consolidating along the Moving Averages. However, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0552 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try achieve the closest resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12759
 
GBP/USD: bears going to deliver a new low
3/7/2017

7-3-2017-GBP-H4.png


We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test a support at 1.2198 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2277 – 1.2315 afterwards.

7-3-2017-GBP-H1.png


The 34 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern. Also, there’s a “Flag”, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2213 – 1.2198 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2305 – 1.2315.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12760
 
Key option levels for Tuesday, March 7th
3/7/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(138).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 40 875 ? + 285 621 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0607; 1.0651; 1.0675; 1.0696; 1.0714
Closest support levels 1.0582; 1.0553; 1.0516; 1.0494
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0582 (or from 1.0607), with target points at 1.0553 and 1.0516
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0651 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0675 and 1.0696
GBP/USD

GBPUSD(109).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 86 ? + 105 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2271; 1.2341; 1.2372; 1.2398
Closest support levels 1.2233; 1.2206; 1.2188; 1.2166; 1.2139
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.2233, with target points at 1.2206 and 1.2188
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2271 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2341 and 1.2372
USD/CAD

USDCAD(119).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 304 ? + 195 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3403; 1.3426; 1.3448; 1.3481
Closest support levels 1.3371; 1.3330; 1.3296; 1.3250
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3403, with the target points at 1.3426 and 1.3448
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3371 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3330 and 1.3296
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12763
 
Nicolas Darvas: dancing trader
3/7/2017

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For the N-th time, we come to believe that successful witty traders are extraordinary and wickedly talented people. In this article, we are going to tell you about one young fella who having escaped from Hungary with forged visa and 50 pounds in the pocket, managed to become the highest paid dancer and real Wall Street legend. The guy, we are talking about is Nicolas Darvas. Yes, yes, that Darvas that was widely popular in 1950s, the one who danced with such amazing cinema stars such as Judy Garland (donno whether you watched The Wizard of Oz in your childhood or not, but if you did, you probably recognize her in the role of Dorothy Gale) and showman Bob Hope. But here we will focus on other Darvas’s talents – his trading techniques and penchant for business. In the 1950s- 1960s, Nicolas Darvas became one the most successful amateur investors who managed to earn $2.5 mln trading in the stock market while being full-time in-demand dancer.
During the travels with his dance troupe, Darvas didn’t lounge away his spare time. Being a rather quick-minded and brainy man, using his educational background (before the WWI he trained as an economist at the University of Budapest), he decided to dabble in the stock market in the early 1950s and made a fortune on his trades. You should keep in mind that at that time trading was not so easy. There were no stock charts, no computers. If you wanted to chart the price of a stock, you had to do it all by yourself. In addition, the stock trading demanded the trader’s full-time devotion.

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So, you would probably ask how Nicolas Darvas managed to become so successful being on the move all the time and consistently behind on the financial headlines. Well, during his travel, he kept a special employee – experienced broker who sent Darvas copies of Barron’s so he could keep up with the recent news in the stock market. Nicolas was sending telegrams from the hotels when he wanted to buy or sell (not like today, when you can easily trade having logged onto FBS, eh?). As you probably guessed, Darvas’s information about the current state of affair wasn’t always up to date. But, strangely enough, the distance helped this talented man, because he could simple ignore the news, other specialists’ opinions and focus on his own trades. Having isolated himself from the Wall Street crowds, Nicolas Darvas managed to earn his $2 mln. Later on, he shared his trading experience in the book titled “How I made $2, 000 000 in the Stock Market’). Nice book for bedtime reading, by the way, in which Darvas described his trading techniques, decision-making process and trading actions in details. His way of trading was called “Box theory”. Nicolas believed that a stock price fluctuates in a number of imaginary boxes. When the price was confined in one of such boxes, he waited. If the price moved beyond the box, he started trading putting a stop-loss just under the trading prices. Nothing extraordinary, as you see. But somehow it worked for the character of our article.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12764
 
XAU/USD: short-term outlook
3/7/2017

The gold prices extended their losses on Tuesday having slid to $1220 from this year high at $1264. Bullion futures have been thrown into reverse after Fed officials expressed more willingness to raise interest rates this month. Upcoming US employment report will be watched closely ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for the next week. Strong prints will confirm market’s expectations for a rate hike. A disappointing report can be supportive for the gold as it would make the Fed’s meeting totally unpredictable.

Gold: another bearish fundamentals

Chinese official news agency Xinhua, the People’s Republic of China is going to increase its annual gold output to 500 tons by the end of the decade from the current 450 tons. In addition, economic growth concerns resurfaced after the China’s premier Li said that China will target 6.5% expansion in 2017 (the last-year growth rate was 6.7%). So, here we see a mismatch between the supply and demand of the metal.

Technical picture

A stronger USD tends to weigh on the gold futures. A selling pressure would turn the precious metal vulnerable sending its prices to test 100-day SMA support at $1212.45 (61.8% Fibo retracement level from January 27 low), $1200 (near 78.6% Fibo retracement level). In the reverse scenario, quotes may move higher towards the nearest resistances at $1231.75 (38.2 Fibo level), $1238 (100-H4 SMA). A breakout of the latter resistance would negate near-term bearish bias and clear the way for the further upsurge towards $1240, 1260 levels.

XAUUSDH4.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12765
 
EUR/USD: bearish "Three Methods"
3/7/2017

0703eurusdH4.png


There’s a bearish “Three Methods”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another decline.

0703eurusdH1.png


We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction towards the last “Engulfing” pattern. If a pullback from this level happens, bears are likely going to deliver a new low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12767
 
EUR/GBP broke resistance zone
3/7/2017

EUR/GBP broke resistance zone
Next buy target – 0.8800

EUR/GBP continues to rise after the price earlier broke through the resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 0.8630 (which stopped the (b)-wave of the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the middle of January) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned ABC correction 2. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.

EUR/GBP is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.8800 (which stopped and reversed the earlier sharp minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of January).

EURGBP_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-07_1506_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12768
 
USD/JPY: local bearish "Engulfing"
3/7/2017

0703usdjpyH4.png


There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an option to have a new local low.

0703usdjpyH1.png


We’ve got a confirmed “High Wave” on the 89 Moving Average, so the pair is likely going to test the last “Three Methods” pattern once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the lower “Window”.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12769
 
AUD/CHF reversed from support zone
3/7/2017

AUD/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 0.7760

AUD/CHF continues to rise strongly – following the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the key support level 0.7630 (former powerful resistance level which has been steadily reversing the price from last October, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CHF chart below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from January.

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – which marked the completion of the previous minor correction (iv). AUD/CHF is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7760.

AUDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-07_1502_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12770
 
EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to move on
3/7/2017

Image20170307172858001.png


Wave [ii] has been moving up after a pullback from 4/8 MM Level. Previously, we’ve got a wedge in wave . Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a new high. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline.

Image20170307172858002.png


There’s a possible zigzag in wave [ii]. In this case, wave (b) is likely going to be continued in the short term. If a pullback from 1/8 MM Level arrives later on, bulls are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [ii].

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12771
 
EUR/USD: euro going to negative area
3/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0520; resistance – 1.0620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0560; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0520; TP2 – 1.0450.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the prices are under the Cloud.

01-eurusdh4(101).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12774
 
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