Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, September 16th
9/16/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 304 400 ? + 148 412 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1295; 1.1319; 1.1351; 1.1374
Closest support levels 1.1233; 1.1211; 1.1184; 1.1152
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.1233, with target points at 1.1211 and 1.1184
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1295 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1319 and 1.1351


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 659 ? + 261 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3283; 1.3314; 1.3346; 1.3367
Closest support levels 1.3228; 1.3204/88; 1.3167; 1.3143
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3228, with target points at 1.3204 and 1.3167
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3283 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3314 and 1.3346


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 572 ? + 453 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.21; 102.46; 102.82; 103.05
Closest support levels 101.68; 101.47; 101.26; 100.95
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 101.68, with target points at 101.47 and 101.26
Alternative scenario Moving above 102.21 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 102.46 and 102.82


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 420 ? + 738 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3167; 1.3198; 1.3228; 1.3268
Closest support levels 1.3135; 1.3101; 1.3075; 1.3040
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3167, with the target points at 1.3198 and 1.3228
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3135 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3101 and 1.3075

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10495

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation between "Thorn" and "Double Bottom"
9/16/2016

The price has been moving between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.1270. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1196 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of the next support at 1.1301.

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.1284, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern, so we’ve got a consolidation near the Moving Averages. Therefore, it’s likely that bears are going to achieve a support at 1.1213 – 1.1198 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to get a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1296.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10497

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new local high is coming[/B[
9/16/2016

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the levels 1.3277 – 1.3115. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support on the 89 Moving Average. If bears be stopped here, then there’ll be an opportunity to see an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3302.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat under the local downward trend. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.3209 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have an achievement of the next resistance at 1.3277 – 1.3302 later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10498

 

[riki143]

Why everybody should keep in focus the forthcoming BOJ meeting
9/16/2016

Upcoming BOJ’s decision on interest rate haunts investors and traders. Senior lenders urge Bank of Japan (BOJ) to weigh up its monetary policy of low interest rate saying that it grossly curtails their lending income. This policy is facing ferocious criticism since the negative rates neither reflect on the country’s economic growth nor help to achieve long-cherished inflation rate of 2%.

Despite all this pressure and apparent failure of the BOJ’s monetary policy, the bank officials seem to be unable to decide this brainteaser. On the one hand, they cannot give up on their program of financial stimulation of the country’s economy. On the other hand, they face with constant nagging of Japanese financial institutions, crying over their shrinking margins. Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda, a current Governor of BOJ, has recently admitted that monetary policy of low interest rates does harm the Japanese financial sector and puts additional pressure on pension funds. That’s why the BOJ might be opposed to negative interest rates at the forthcoming meeting scheduled for the 21st of September. The BOJ will have to question the credibility of its current financial tools and introduce the new ones. Some economists from proven printing editions believe that the BOJ might be willing to smooth financial losses of the banks by reducing its purchases of longer-term bonds and buy more short-term ones. This decision, in its turn, has caused a tremendous sell-off in JPBs and put even more pressure on investors stricken by the Friday’s stock market downfall.

Japan Generic Govt 10 Year

USDJPY Spot Exchange Rate

But we encourage you to be positive, since there is a scope for profits on financial markets, if you play on the high volatility of the USD/JPY currency pair next week.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10502

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" pushed price lower
9/16/2016

There’re a “Harami” and a “Doji” at the local high, which both have been confirmed. So, it’s likely to see another test of the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance. As we see on the Daily chart, the last candle have been closed under the middle of the previously formed huge white candle, which is a strong bullish sign. So, if we see a pullback from the closest support, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

We’ve got a consolidation, which brought a “Shooting Star” at the local high. Also, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10503

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY reversed form resistance zone
9/16/2016

USD/JPY reversed form resistance zone
Next sell target - 100.00
USD/JPY continues to decline inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started previously – wine the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 103.00 and the upper resistance trendline of the extended daily down channel from the end of January.

The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) of the primary downward impulse ③ from July. USD/JPY is expected to fall down further to the next strong support level 100.00 (which reversed four previous waves ①, (B), (1), B, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10504

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY falling inside impulse wave (iii)
9/16/2016

EUR/JPY falling inside impulse wave (iii)
Next sell target - 114.00
EUR/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 116.00 (which also earlier reversed the previous minor ABC correction (ii)), the upper daily Bollinger Band, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward impulse from April and the lower trendline of the wide weekly down channel from 2015 (acting as resistance now after it was broken).

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone started the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 from the middle of July). EUR/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 114.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10505

 

[riki143]

Oil prices: so, we fall again]
9/16/2016

Major oil producers are pulling in their belts as Nigeria and Libya whose supplies have been crushed by a range of domestic conflicts are preparing to add their share of barrels to a global oil glut within weeks. The belts will be pulled even tighter when another large producer – the Kashagan, dubbed as “cash-all-gone” due to series of expensive overruns, is going to pour more oil into the markets. OPEC low-cost producers (Kuwait and the UAE) are not ready to sacrifice their profits. Saudi Arabia and Iraq turned on the taps at their full capacity and raised their production since late 2014. Add to this Baker Hughes’ data announcement about the increase in number of oil rigs and you will get a full package to put oil prices down.

All this happens when refineries are going to freeze their production thereby reducing their appetites for crude oil. Gloomy reports from OPEC, International Energy Agency offer little room for optimism. The 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) scheduled for the 26-28th of September will unlikely make any difference to this sudden collapse of oil supple, even if two major producers (Saudi Arabia and Russia will manage to negotiate a production freeze.

The oil prices are already responding this competition between major producers. Crude oil prices fell by $4,7 from its September high $47,75 a barrel. We expect oil prices will fall further.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10506

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a support
9/16/2016

The last “Shooting Star” pattern led to the current bearish price movement. Also, we’ve got a pullback form the lower “Window”, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity for another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price achieved the important support levels, so bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.

We’ve got one more bearish “Engulfing”, so the price reached the lower “Window”. Considering a “Harami” pattern, there’s a chance to have a bullish movement towards the Moving Averages, which could reverse the price movement into a downward direction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10507

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD & CB Leading Index/RBA Monetary Policy Minutes: Opportunity for buyers ahead?
9/18/2016

Today we'll have a light economic calendar in terms of macroeconomic events, but we'll be watching for the latest developments around the Australian Dollar, as we would be following the CB Leading Index at 14:30 GMT and latest numbers have been showing a pattern to stay in the range between 0.1% and 0.5% during the latest months. However, the key event will be at 01:30 GMT on Tuesday, when it will be released the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes.

Our technical picture for AUD/USD at H4 chart is calling for more weakness across the board, but in terms of price action, there is a zone very important for the buyers, as the 0.7515 – 0.7455 levels have been proven to be a strong demand zone and eventually, the Aussie may have a momentum to resume the bullish bias. If that happens, then a breakout above the 0.7515 level is expected towards the 0.7565 zone. By another hand, if the pair manages to break the 0.7455 support level, it's expected to fall towards the 0.7400 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10508

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the pound fell into a bear trap
9/18/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, due to the drop in quotes to their September lows, our targets of the short positions on the pound have been fulfilled. Break-point of rising short-term trend is very steady, therefore, traders should focus on the sales at 1,3072-1,3075 and 1,315 levels. Over time, the pair is expected to go down to 1,291-1,2925 levels

On the GBP/USD hourly chart 'bulls" can gather themselves up and attack the lower boundary of the descending trading channel. If their efforts fail, it will be a signal to open short positions. As for an initial target it makes sense to use the convergence zone of 1,295-1,2965.

Recommendations: SELL 1,307 SL 1,314 TP1 1,2965 TP2 1,291 SELL 1,3105 SL 1,3155 TP1 1,2965 TP2 1,291

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10509

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the euro chose its direction
9/18/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the quotes went beyond the 1,1205-1,127 trading channel and allowed traders to open short positions. If the "bears" manage to continue the initiated attack and break through the 1,113 support, the activation of the Bat pattern will increase the risk of euro falling to 1,104 and 1.1 marks.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the target at 88.6% in the Bat pattern has been fulfilled. Update of the newly formed low will allow the pair to continue its downward movement, at least down to the level of 1,111. Withdrawal from the convergence zone 1,12-1,1205 will be a signal to open short positions.

Recommendation: SELL 1,12 SL 1,125 TP1 1,111 TP2 1,104 TP3 1,1

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10510

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bears have won
9/18/2018

Technical levels: support – 1.1150; resistance – 1.1190, 1.1210

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1190; SL — 1.1210; TP1 — 1.1150; TP2 – 1.1110.

Reason: the prices are under the Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and oversold market.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10511/01-eurusdh4(38).png][/IMG]

Morrer:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10511

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: rising to Senkou Span A
9/18/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7500; resistance – 0.7590.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7530; TP2 — 0.7480.

2. Buy — 0.7530; SL — 0.7510; TP1 — 0.7590; TP2 — 0.7620.

Reason: a support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but SSA have a positive direction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10512

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the Bears can’t break the SSB
9/18/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.90; resistance – 102.50, 102.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 101.90; SL — 102.10; TP1 — 101.10; TP2 — 100.60.

2. Buy — 102.20; SL — 102.00; TP1 — 102.90; TP2 — 103.50.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and rising Kijun-sen; a strong support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10513

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triple Bottom" stopped bearish rally
9/18/2016

Bears faced a support at 1.1145, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.1138 – 1.1122.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10514

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to reach nearest resistance
9/18/2016

The price found a support at 1.2974, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern here. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.3115 shortly. Meanwhile, considering th previously formed “V-Top” pattern, there’s an opportunity to see an achievement of the next support at 1.2934.

The market plunged last Friday. Finally, bears were stopped by a support at 1.2974, so an upward correction is taking place. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.3058 – 1.3115. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to have a new local low.


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10515

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to form wave D
9/18/2016

There’s a possible wave D, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Previously, the price formed a pullback from 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, it’s likely that bears are going to reach 1/8 MM Level in the short term.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a double zigzag in wave (x). Also, a bearish impulse in wave a was formed last Friday. In this cast, it’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave b during the day. If a pullback from 3/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave c of (c).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10517

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
9/18/2016

We’ve got a wedge in wave , which led to form a zigzag in wave [ii]. Moreover, there’s an impulse in wave (i), so bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200).

There’s a quite small wedge in wave a of (ii) on the one-hour chart. In this case, it’s likely that wave c of (ii) is going to be continued. If a pullback from 4/8 MM Level be on the table, there’ll be a chance to see a bearish impulse in wave i.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10518

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD ahead of US Building Permits & BoC's Poloz speech: Looking to test the 1.3300 zone?
9/20/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US building permits for August and market's consensus is calling for an increase from 1.144M to 1.1700M and at 16:45 GMT, BoC's governor Poloz is expected to speak. Both events should produce some kind of volatility in the USD/CAD pair, ahead of interest rate decisions by the Fed and BoJ, but that should be limited, as the markets are pricing the event as for right now, before the “main event”.

The technical picture for USD/CAD at H4 chart is still bullish and the resistance zone of 1.3237 can be tested once again, especially during Poloz's speech and if the US data comes above the expectations. If the Loonie manages to break the 1.3237 handle, then it can reach the 1.3300 psychological level. However, if data disappoints, but Poloz is hawkish, then a breakout below the support level of 1.3144 is highly expected to reach the 200 SMA price zone in coming days.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10527