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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/USD: in the consolidation around the Cloud
9/15/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1240; resistance – 1.1260

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1260; SL — 1.1240; TP1 — 1.1320; TP2 – 1.1380.

2. Sell — 1.1230; SL — 1.1250; TP1 — 1.1150; TP2 – 1.1110.

Reason: the prices are located near the Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the Ichimoku Cloud had changed its character.

01-eurusdh4(37).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10471
 
GBP/USD: stayed inside a Cloud
9/15/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3235; resistance – 1.3260, 1.3360.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3230; SL — 1.3210; TP1 — 1.3320; TP2 — 1.3360.

Reason: a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the bullish mood of Ichimoku Cloud is keeping; a strong support of Senkou Span B.

02-gbpusdh4(19).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10472
 
GBP/USD: bears have set a trap
9/15/2016

On the daily GBP/USD chart the bulls made another attempt to return the prices inside the bullish trend channel. If it is successful, the risks of growth to 1.331 and 1.335 qill increase. Recoil from diagonal resistance and the following successful test of support at 1.3225 will make the pound decline towards 1.3155 and 1.3085.

Screenshot_2016_09_15_07_59_28.png


On H1 GBP/USD the break of the upper border of the descending trend will strengthen the case for the "Bat" pattern. When its 88.6% (1.3325) target is reached, there will be a sell signal.

Screenshot_2016_09_15_07_59_43.png


Recommendation: SELL 1,3225 TP1 1,3155 TP2 1,3085 SL 1,331 SELL 1,3325 TP1 1,3225 TP2 1,3155 SL 1,3395

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10473
 
AUD/USD: on the SSA support[/B}
9/15/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7450; resistance – 0.7520.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7450/60; SL — 0.7430; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7580.

Reason: a support of Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

03-audusdh4(19).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10474
 
EUR/USD: price going up and down like an yo-yo
9/15/2016

15-9-2016-EUR-H4.png


There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.1270. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1220 – 1.1196 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.1270 – 1.1282.

15-9-2016-EUR-H1.png


The price faced a resistance at 1.1270, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average shortly. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1270 – 1.1282.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10476
 
GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" set up bullish correction
9/15/2016

15-9-2016-GBP-H4.png


The pair found a support at 1.3115, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern here. Considering a resistance at 1.3277, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average during the day. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this line takes place, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3303 – 1.3345.

15-9-2016-GBP-H1.png


There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to a local upward price movement. So, there’s an opportunity to see a bearish correction towards a support at 1.3234 – 1.3209. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels be on the table, an achievement of the closest resistance at 1.3277 – 1.3302 becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10477
 
How to trade on SNB? Hints from major banks
9/15/2016

The Swiss National Bank will announce its policy decision at 07:30 GMT. The central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at -0.75%. Below you will find how the analysts recommend to trade on this event.

Morgan Stanley: Markets are pricing in the dovish SNB and a December rate cut, but this won’t happen. Sell CAD/CHF and AUD/CHF, buy CHF/JPY.

Barclays: The lack of volatility after Brexit and some improvement in Swiss economic figures removed the pressure on the SNB to act further easing monetary policy. The central bank’s meeting will be neutral for EUR/CHF.

Credit Agricole: Swiss franc is overvalued, so the SNB won’t be dovish. EUR/CHF will remain supported.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10478
 
GBP exchange rate forecast from some big stakeholders before the BoE meeting
9/15/2016

Today everybody’s attention will be focused on the meeting of the Bank of England.

The majority of economists believe that the BOE will keep its benchmark interest rate steady after cutting it to 0.25% last month and that will be a pretty good news for pound. A package of recent data on retail sales, manufacturing and the labor market shows us that the UK economy managed to shrug off the unexpected result of Brexit vote in June. The next cut in interest rates is expected in November.

Some big stakeholders like Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole are positive about the pound’s perspectives. There is a strong rationale behind their confidence in the pound’s uplift. There is no need for the Monetary Policy Committee to be any more dovish than the market is already pricing in for the last months of this year (strategy “sell the rumor, buy the fact” does work). Moreover, the BOE might be willing to save ammunition for rugged times – an actual “Brexit”. Therefore, the pound will unlikely face a considerable downfall from the current levels.

Barclays, as its aforementioned colleagues, doesn’t expect any changes in the MPC’s monetary policy settings today. The Barclays experts expect the Committee members vote in favor of the status quo of the current APF, but remains uncertain about the Gertjan Vlieghe’s vote saying that he is apt to vote for a cut. The Barclays officials have also mentioned that the minutes can make it evident for the Treasury Select Committee that some the MPC members are open towards further package of easing measures. This should make downside risks to the economy materialize and might be keeping GBP/USD under pressure. That’s why they chose to target GBP/USD at 1.27 by the end of this year.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10482
 
EUR/USD: "Harami" cause bullish movement
9/15/2016

1509eurusdh4.png


There’s a strong support by the Moving Averages, so we’ve got a “Doji” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have another decline. Also, there’s a new bullish candle on the Daily chart, so bulls are probably going to test the nearest resistance once again.

1509eurusdh1.png


We’ve got a consolidation, but there’s a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed strongly. In this case, it’s likely that the pair is going to achieve the nearest resistance once again during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the lower “Window”.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10483
 
USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a support once again
9/15/2016

1509usdjpyH4.png


There’s a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has a confirmation, so the price is likely going to test nearest “Window”. If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s another “Shooting Star”, so the price couldn’t close above the middle of the last huge black candle. In this case, there’s a chance to have a local decline.

1509usdjpyH1.png


We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Three White Soldiers” on the lower “Window”. However, there’s a bearish “Harami”, so the price is likely going to test the “Window” once again during the day. If we have the second pullback from this level, bulls will likely try to reach the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10484
 
EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
9/15/2016

EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next buy target - 1.5000
EUR/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from the end of April. The price earlier broke through the resistance level 1.4670 (which reversed the previous waves (i) and (b). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4670 accelerated the active impulse wave 3- which then broke above the next resistance level 1.4800 (top of impulse wave 1 from May).

EUR/CAD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.5000 (which stopped and reversed the previous sharp B-wave in April, as can be seen below).

EURCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-15_1245_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10485
 
AUD/CHF reversed from support zone
9/15/2016

AUD/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 0.7400
AUD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7270 (which reversed earlier waves (a) and 2, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CHF chart below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the earlier sharp upward impulse from the middle of June. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous minor ABC correction (ii).

Given the strength of the support level 0.7270 - AUD/CHF is expected to continue to rise toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7400. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned support level 0.7270.

AUDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-15_1230_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10486
 
EUR/USD: "triangle" is on the eve of completion[/URL]
9/15/2016

Image20160915144629001.png


There’s a possible triangle in wave [x], so if we see a pullback from the upper side of this pattern, bears are likely going to deliver wave [y] of D. Therefore, we should keep an eye on 1/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as a possible intraday target.

Image20160915144629002.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a zigzag in wave (d). In this case, wave (e) is likely going to end soon. If we have a pullback from 5/8 MM Level, then there’ll be an open door for wave (a).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10487
 
Key option levels for Thursday, September 15th
9/15/2016

EUR/USD

EURUSD(33).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 149 405 ? + 113 570 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1306; 1.1329/42; 1.1360; 1.1383
Closest support levels 1.1234; 1.1211; 1.1183; 1.1151
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1234, with target points at 1.1211 and 1.1183
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1306 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1329 and 1.1360

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(33).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 289 ? + 803 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3287; 1.3320; 1.3355; 1.3378
Closest support levels 1.3174; 1.3154; 1.3129; 1.3102
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3174, with target points at 1.3154 and 1.3129
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3287 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3320 and 1.3355


USD/CAD

USDCAD(30).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 1 036? + 1 255 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3210; 1.3238; 1.3264; 1.3300
Closest support levels 1.3173; 1.3125; 1.3094; 1.3053
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3210, with the target points at 1.3238 and 1.3264
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3173 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3125 and 1.3094


EUR GBP CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10488
 
Top 6 best candlestick reversal patterns
9/15/2016

Eastern wisdom gained iconic status in Western countries. Some people addressed to Eastern thinkers in order to purge themselves from sins and deepen their spirituality, while others learnt how to make money. That’s the case of Japanese candle chart analysis now used internationally by traders. One of the main advantages of using candle charts is that they provide you with early indications of market reversals. To be able to recognize these trading signals, you should memorize the main candlestick patterns.

Harami and Engulfing candlestick

Let’s refer to my favorite reversal pattern – Harami. From old Japanese “harami” means pregnant. The bigger candlestick is the mother, and the smaller one is the baby. The body of the baby must lie within the body of its mother.

BullishHaramiExample-354x396(1).png


Their position tells us that the market has come to a muted reversal. You may ask: “Ok, and how do we trade it?” In a bull trend, we should use the bullish Harami to define the end of the ascending trend. In a bear trend, you have to use the bearish Harami to designate the end of the bullish retracement.

The next popular trend is called engulfing candlestick. It is the opposite of Harami pattern flipped horizontally. The body of the second candle entirely engulfs the body of the first. The engulfing candlestick is a reversal of a downward trend; it demonstrates how the sellers were overpowered by the buyers.

Trading signals. In case of a bull trend, you should buy above the bullish engulfing pattern for bullish continuation. If there is bear trend, sell below the bearish engulfing pattern for bearish continuation.

Hammer and Hanging Man candlesticks

Well, let me put it bluntly, these two patterns look exactly the same. Their body is located near the top of the candlestick, and their shadow is much longer than their body. The difference between the hammer and the hanging man is following: the hammer pattern can be identified at the very end of the downward trend line (it is a strong bullish signal), while the hanging man appears at the end of a bull run (roughly speaking, the suffocation of the hanging man signifies the beginning of the bearish trend).

HammerandHangingManExample-354x396.png


HangingManTradingExample-705x396.png



Trading signals. If there is a downward trend, we should buy above the hammer pattern for a reversal play. In case of a bullish trend, we should sell below the Hanging Man pattern for a reversal play as soon as the bears consolidate their positions.

Piercing Line and Dark Cloud Cover

The first candle of the Piercing line pattern is bearish, while the second one is bullish. It opens below the wick of the first candlestick and closes above the 50% of the first candle’s body. Both bodies are long enough.

PiercingLineCandlestickPatternExample-347x396.png


The Dark cloud cover is a bearish version of the Piercing line. The first candlestick is bullish. The second one opens above the higher ending of the wick of the first candlestick and closes below the mid-point of the first candlestick.

2. Inverted Hammer and Shooting star.

The Inverted hammer has the same shape as the Shooting star. But they designate the beginning of two different trends. When an Inverted Hammer is found at the end of a downtrend, a Shooting star is placed at the end of the uptrend.

InvertedHammerandShootingStarExample-354x396.png


Trading signals. In a downtrend, you should buy above the Inverted Hammer pattern for a reversal play once “bullies” win back their lost position and consolidate them. And in a bull trend, it’s better to sell below the Shooting star pattern for a reversal play.

Morning and Evening Stars
These ones have three bars. A Morning star consists of a long bearish candlestick, a candle below it (no matter which one, it could bearish or bullish one) and a bullish candlestick that closes within the body of the first candlestick of the same pattern.

MorningStarExample-354x396.png


MorningStarTradingExample-705x396.png


An evening star consists of a long bullish candlestick, a star above it (either bullish or bearish) and a bearish candlestick closing within the body of the first candlestick.

Trading signals are following: buy above the last candlestick of Morning star three-bar pattern and sell below the las bar of the Evening start formation.

Three White Soldiers and Three Black Crowns
It’s a sort of an ascending ladder, each candlestick embodies a staircase. All three part of this pattern have almost the same size with a little deviation. After we pass three staircases, we may be sure that the bullish trend is growing in strength.

ThreeWhiteSoldiersExample-354x396.png


Three-Black-Crows-Trading-Example-703x396(2).png


The Three Black Crows pattern reminds a descending ladder. Each of the three candlesticks in this pattern should open within the previous candle body and close near its ending. If three crows flew in the “window” (appear on the graph), the bearish trend is on the lookout.

Trading signals: you should buy above the Three White Soldiers pattern and sell below the Three Black Crowns.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10489
 
EUR/USD & US Core CPI: Further declines ahead of Fed meeting?
9/16/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US Core CPI for August and market's analysts are expecting a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2% and with that scenario, we shouldn't expect more volatility during the event, following the mixed data published yesterday in the United States, with retail sales more contracted than expected, while the industrial production declined. However, because it's Friday, we should pay attention to that data, as we may get surprises.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing an overall bullish structure above the 200 SMA, as it remains supported by that indicator. Also, the level of 1.1210 is providing a good pivot point for the pair and if we see fresh momentum in coming hours that favours the bulls, then it can rally to the 1.1339 level, only if EUR/USD manages to break the 1.1275 level.

EURUSDH4(21).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10490
 
USD/JPY: bears gather strenght for attack
9/16/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart the "bull" failure to break through the upper limit of the long-term downtrend trade channel and the level of 23.6% Fibonacci from the wave XA (103,18) shows us their weakness. Successful test of the 101.3 support line will create prerequisites for the further movement of the peak towards 100-100,7 (Target 88.6% on the pattern of the Bat).

Screenshot_2016_09_16_07_19_08.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart successful test of the 101.3 support activates pattern "Shark." Its target at 161.8% corresponds to the 100.1 level. The nearest significant resistance lies near the 102.85 level.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10491/Screenshot_2016_09_16_07_19_25.png[/MG]

Recommendation: SELL 101,3 TP100,1 SL 101,95.

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10491]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10491[/URL]
 
NZD/USD: QIWI found support from the big fish
9/16/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart heavy buyer showed his strength near the level of 0.7245. Successful "bear" attack on his position, followed by a break of the correction low at point B (0,7205) activates the pattern "Shark" with 0.7 (88.6%) target.

Screenshot_2016_09_16_07_28_53.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart a double bottom has been formed at the level of the lower border of the rising trade channel. Successful test of the 0.7245 support will create the prerequisites for the further upward movement in the peak towards 0.715 and 0,705-0,7065. The nearest significant resistance lies near 0.736 boundary.

Screenshot_2016_09_16_07_29_06.png


Recommendation: SELL 0,7245 TP1 0,715 TP2 0,7065 SL 0,73.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10492
 
AUD/USD: SSA had stopped the Bears
9/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7490, 0.7450; resistance – 0.7520.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7490; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7550; TP2 — 0.7580.

Reason: a support of Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

03-audusdh4(20).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10493
 
USD/JPY: welcome back to SSB
9/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.90; resistance – 102.40, 102.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 101.90; SL — 102.10; TP1 — 101.10; TP2 — 100.60.

2. Buy — 102.20; SL — 102.00; TP1 — 102.90; TP2 — 103.50.

Reason: a bullish, but the narrow Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen; a strong support of Senkou Span B.

04-usdjpyh4(26).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10494
 
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