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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

USD/CAD: the bulls will need a rest
9/20/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart the "bulls" managed to reach the 1,324 target. The trend is rising, but if the "bears" manage to lower the quotes below their September 19 minimums of the doji bar, the risk of correction will rise.

Screenshot_2016_09_20_07_42_45.png


On the USD/CAD hourly chart the "bulls" failure to renew their maximum at the 1,3248 level, let us talk about the formation of the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. The breakout of the neckline at the 1,3145 level will be a signal for correction at the 1,305 level. Here we can see the 88,6% target of the "Shark" pattern.

Screenshot_2016_09_20_07_43_01.png


Recommendations: SELL 1,3145 SL 1,3205 TP 1,305.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10528
 
USD/JPY: yen weighs its options
9/20/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart quotes come close to the important support at the 101.3 level. Its successful test activates the Bat pattern. Its 88.6% target lies near the mark of 100. In contrast, breakout of the resistance at 103.2 level will clear the way to the 105.2 level (the 127.2% target of the pattern AB = CD).

Screenshot_2016_09_20_07_49_17.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, active traders can open long positions at the breakout of the 102,45 resistance line, while more patient traders will have to wait for the successful test of the 103,2 level.

Screenshot_2016_09_20_07_49_33.png


Recommendations:

SELL 101,3 SL 101,95 TP 100

BUY 102,45 SL 101,95 TP1 104,3 TP2 105,2

BUY 103,2 SL 102,5 TP1 104,3 TP2 105,2

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10529
 
GBP/USD: waiting for correction
9/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3030; resistance – 1.3060/70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3060/70; SL — 1.3090; TP1 — 1.3000; TP2 — 1.2940.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; falling Tenkan-sen and Senkou Span A.

02-gbpusdh4(20).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10530
 
AUD/USD: heavy trades near SSA
8/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7530; resistance – 0.7590.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7530; SL — 0.7510; TP1 — 0.7590; TP2 — 0.7620.

Reason: a support of Tenkan-sen; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

03-audusdh4(22).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10531
 
USD/JPY: the Bears on the attack
9/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.90; resistance – 101.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 101.80/90; SL — 102.10; TP1 — 101.10; TP2 — 100.60.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud will changed its character; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Kijun-sen.

04-usdjpyh4(28).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10532
 
EUR/USD: "V-Top" highlights chance to have new low
9/20/2016

20-9-2016-EUR-H4.png


There’s a “Double Bottom” pattern, which led to an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.1196. So, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1138 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement towards the 89 Moving Average.

20-9-2016-EUR-H1.png


We’ve got a consolidation on the one-hour chart, which brought a “V-Top” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.1145 – 1.1138 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels be on the table, then bulls will likely try to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10533
 
GBP/USD: bears going to break low because of "Flag"
9/20/2016

20-9-2016-GBP-H4.png


There’s a “V-Bottom” patterns, so the price is consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a local “V-Top” pattern, which points to an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2974. However, if bears be stopped on this level, there’ll be a chance to see another upward price movement.

20-9-2016-GBP-H1.png


A consolidation is taking place under the 34 Moving Average. Meanwhile, we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed by the last “Flag”. In this case, it’s likely that bears are going to reach a support at 1.2974 during the day. If a pullback from this levels happens later on, then bulls will have an opportunity to catch a resistance at 1.3115.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10534
 
Key option levels for Tuesday, September 20th
9/20/2016

EUR/USD

EURUSD(36).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 1 859 880 ? - 2 236 289 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1235; 1.1254/68; 1.1287; 1.1311
Closest support levels 1.1158; 1.1132; 1.1101; 1.1065
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1158, with target points at 1.1132 and 1.1101
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1235 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1254 and 1.1287


GBP/USD

GBPUSD(36).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 209 ? + 330 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3092; 1.3119; 1.3137; 1.3159
Closest support levels 1.3027; 1.3004; 1.2968; 1.2944
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3027, with target points at 1.3004 and 1.2968
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3092 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3119 and 1.3137


USD/JPY

USDJPY(35).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 555 ? - 377 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.09; 102.27; 102.47; 102.72
Closest support levels 101.24; 100.84; 100.47; 100.24
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.09, with target points at 102.27 and 102.47
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.24 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 100.84 and 100.47


USD/CAD

USDCAD(33).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 384 ? + 197 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3207; 1,3231; 1.3256; 1.3291
Closest support levels 1.3134; 1.3104; 1.3063; 1.3012
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3207, with the target points at 1.3231 and 1.3256
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3134 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3104 and 1.3063

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10535
 
How to trade USD/JPY on Bank of Japan? Tips from banks
9/20/2016

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: There are signs of potential bottom in the pair (bullish weekly MACD, horizontal 50-day MA), but there’s strong resistance at 103.46 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud). A very effective Bank of Japan’s meeting will bring USD/JPY to 106.05 (38.2% Fibo of 2011-2015 advance), while a very ineffective one will make the pair fall to 94.64 (61.8% Fibo).

Deutsche Bank: The risks are that the Bank of Japan disappoints and the yen will strengthen.

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ: It seems that opinions within the BOJ about the appropriate policy step differ, that’s why the regulator will keep its policy unchanged. The yen will rise in the short term. The target range for the pair is between 104.00 and 101.00.

Morgan Stanley: There are things that can may USD/JPY rise after the BOJ meeting. It will happen if the central bank manages to raise inflation expectations and reduces long-term bond purchases. However, if the overall policy remains unchanged, USD/JPY will then reverse to the downside.

Danske, Credit Suisse: BOJ won’t ease policy and USD/JPY will test support at 100.00.

Westpac: Any hints from the Bank of Japan that it has reached its QE limit will make USD/JPY slump below 100.00 moving towards 95.00/90.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10536
 
EUR/USD: another bearish impulse is about to start
9/20/2016

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10537/Image20160920103614001.png[/URL]

There’s a possible wave D, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave (y) of [y] in the short term, so we should keep an eye on 1/8 Murrey Math Level as an intraday target. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10537/Image20160920103614002.png

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (c) of [y] is likely going to form a zigzag. So, if wave b ends and the price finds a lodgement under 3/8 MM Level, then wave c of (c) is going to start. The main target here is -2/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10537
 
NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9650
9/20/2016

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9650
Next buy target - 0.9800
NZD/CAD today broke above the resistance level 0.9650 (which reversed the previous impulse wave (i) and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the pivotal support level 0.9550 (former major resistance level from July and August).

NZD/CAD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned price level 0.9650.

NZDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-20_1110_AM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10539
 
NZD/USD reversed from support zone
9/20/2016

NZD/USD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 0.7450
NZD/USD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level support 0.7240 (which has been reversing the pair from August), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from July.

NZD/USD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii) and 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7450 (which reversed the previous impulse wave (i) in September).

NZDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-20_1110_AM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10540
 
NZD/USD exchange rate expectations from some financial bigshots
9/20/2016

If you trust French “connoisseur” of financial markets - Crédit Agricole, be short NZD/USD. The bank has some weighty reasons behind this call. First, the NZD may rise due to the eagerness of the yield chasers to push NZD higher and at a faster pace than the AUD. According to CA’s positioning indicators, these guys remain long the NZD/USD. Second, the BOJ and its probable decision not to ease monetary policy further may result in a shortage of liquidity in the global financial markets which is unfavorable turn of events for carry traders. The third reason lead us to the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, the CA’s analysts don’t expect any policy move towards rate hikes from the Fed. And, the last rationale is that the RBNZ will likely to cut rates further this year.

The Swiss and German bankers (Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank accordingly) are more positive in relation to the NZD appreciation. Credit Suisse entered NZD/USD long and placed a limit order at 0,7260 with a target at 0,7395. The Swiss financial pundits, unlike their French colleagues, are less eloquent in their explanations about their bet. They trust technical analysis more than any news reports. So, they rely on their “gut feeling” supporting it with some graph observations: “NZD/USD has managed to hold above the support line from the late August lows. Trend line support and 55-day average at 0,7225 and followed its upward movement with a bounce.” This trend, according to Credit Suisse, will continue to rise for 0,7331 at first, and ahead of 0,7365 a bit later.

The Deutsche Bank trade in concert with its Swiss colleague and remains bullish towards the kiwi. The DB’s officials believe that carry traders should be really active now, as the net longs in the kiwi are still light. Deutsche Bank placed a limit order to long NZD/USD at 0,7300 with a target at 0,7500 and a stop at 0,7210.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10541
 
EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance
9/20/2016

2009eurusdh4.png


There’s a bullish “Tweezers” pattern at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Also, we’ve got a possible “Three Methods” pattern, but it hasn’t been finished yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 34 and 55 Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price reached the nearest resistance, but there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which means bears are free to push the market even lower.

2009eurusdh1.png


We’ve got an upward correction in progress. Previously, an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Tweezers” patterns have been formed. If the nearest “Window” acts as a resistance, then the price is likely going to test the closest support.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10542
 
USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a resistance one more time
9/20/2016

2009usdjpyH4.png


The price is consolidating near the “Window”. Also, there’s a possible “High Wave” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 21 and 34 Moving Averages. At the same time, if a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, the 13 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so the pair is going to reach the closest support line soon.

2009usdjpyH1.png


We’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, which has been strongly confirmed. However, there’s another “Harami” at the last low, so the price is likely going to test the nearest “Window” one more time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10543
 
Benefits and pitfalls of the Forex indicator analysis
9/20/2016

Members of traders’ community actively use the technical indicators in their intraday analysis of forex market. We may say, that indicators are their number one assistant in trading. Although nothing can outperform human beings with their gut feelings of financial lore and many years’ trading experience, the computer algorithms may accord invaluable help in unraveling the secrets of forex market operational modes.

Indicators(1).jpg


While trading people’s hearts sky rocket, their palms become sweaty and their brain is overloaded with the only thought how to become better off and not to get bankrupt. Do you recognize this agony yourself? Yes, trading is not for the faint-hearted, neither it is for emotionally overwhelmed. For the latter ones, smart people invented technical indicators which remain indifferent and conscious even if you trade highly volatile currency pairs. In other words, indicators help to exclude the influence of the irrational psychological factors on your trading decisions.

The next advantage of the indicators is that they give you a comprehensive picture of the market with help of the charts, graphs and bars. An indicator uses algorithms in order to analyze a trading instrument selected by you; so, they release you from the need to make sophisticated mathematical calculations in order to build an adequate trading strategy. Finally, indicators help you to recognize the main trade lines if you cannot find them on your own.

Once you learnt about the usefulness of the technical indicators in the forex market analysis, you might start filling your interface with loads of them. Don’t be greedy! Experienced traders advise to use only a limited number of technical indicators. It’s more than enough to define your trading strategy. If your screen is covered with crossings-out, numerous dots and figures, you won’t be able to notice all these trading trends at all, or, what’s even worse, you may just get in trap by following the false trading signals. Another drawback of the technical indicators is that they don’t respond to trading moves immediately; they show them with delay. Therefore, you should beware of these time lags, or forex market will play a low-down trick with you.

Everybody chooses his/her own set of technical indicators to filter against market chop and get into positions that go well into profit. You can try different ones and choose that suit you best.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10544
 
Ultimate guide to BOJ and Fed meetings
9/20/2016

There 2 events of extreme importance on Wednesday: meetings of the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve. Here’s what you need to know about them.

The BOJ meeting (around 03:00-05:00 GMT)

gettyimages-515664988.jpg


Japanese central bank already has very loose monetary policy: negative interest rates (-0.1% on some commercial-bank deposits) + 80-trillion-yen asset buying program. However, this policy fails to make inflation rise to 2% target level.

Opinions on what the Bank of Japan will do next differ among the economists. The main options are the following:

- Increase asset purchases (It will be difficult for the BOJ to buy more government bonds since it has already loads of them on balance and the supply is getting thin. Some analysts think that the BOJ will start buying assets with higher risk such as real-estate investment trusts).

- Cut interest rate further to negative territory (Not an easy step either as commercial banks won’t like it).

- Widen annual asset purchase target to 70-90 trillion yen (This step will make the BOJ more flexible).

- Reduce buying of long-term bonds in order to lift up long-term yields (Such step will improve banks’ profitability).

- Adopt forward guidance – set a date, when it will end negative rate policy.

- Change inflation target: instead of saying that inflation will reach target in 2 years, say that the target will be reached “at the earliest possible time”.

The base line is that if the BOJ doesn’t directly increase monetary stimulus (cut rates or increase asset purchases), there’s big risk that the market will feel that the central bank has run out of policy options. This will be negative for USD/JPY, and support at 100.70/00 will be endangered.

The Fed meeting (18:00 GMT with press conference around 18:30 GMT)

Federal-Reserve-DC(1).jpg


It’s a bit easier to understand what’s at stake at the Federal Reserve’s meeting – it’s all about the interest rate. The federal funds rate is currently in 0.25%-0.5% range. According to futures market, the possibility of a rate hike on Wednesday equals to 12%. In other words, the market doesn’t price in a rate hike and isn't ready for action from the Fed.

Arguments for the Fed to raise rate rather sooner than later are: good shape of American labor market, rather low financial market volatility, the necessity to continue policy normalization. Arguments against the rate hike include inflation sill below target, mixed economic picture, low pricing in of the hike by the market, division of opinions within the FOMC and fears of negative global consequences of a hike.

The base scenario is that the Fed will keep policy unchanged in September (US economy needs all support it can get ahead of presidential election in November), but Janet Yellen will try to persuade the market that a rate hike in December is very likely. The amount of support US dollar gets will depend on degree of the Fed’s hawkishness. Watch the forecasts made by the FOMC members for the level of the federal funds rate by the year-end. Forecasts of 0.50-0.75% and higher rate will be bullish for USD. Initial reaction of the greenback on the Fed’s decision may be negative. Expect strong volatility during the announcement time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10545
 
At what time it’s better to trade? Some hints from Deutsche Bank
9/20/2016

On its special report the DB shared with some tricks of the trade in forex market. It made a research on the intraday seasonality in forex spot market and found out a very efficient win-win strategy for trading different currency pairs. We’ve decided to bring you up to date.

Deutsche Bank made some calculations, skimmed through the significant intraday patterns and managed to find out that forex market moves during the common London-NY time zone are similar to overall spot moves on the day. And, in contrast, trading during the Asia and New York afternoon sessions is not so informative. Nice observation, isn’t it?

MarketHoursTable_TimeZones.png


DB has also managed to find out that some currencies possess a very strong intraday seasonality. As it turned out, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs are the most perceptive ones to these intraday market moves. They weaken significantly during the morning hours of London session, but strengthening during NY afternoons. So, there is a gospel truth about exchange rates of almost all currencies: the currencies tend to weaken during their domestic trading hours and strengthen outside of domestic hours. There is one exception from this rule, though – the JPY – it often strengthens during the Tokyo time zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10546
 
EUR/USD ahead of FOMC meeting: Hike or not hike?
9/21/2016

Hike rates or not? Traders will be waiting for an answer to be given during today's Fed interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT and press conference by its chairwoman, Janet Yellen. According to the recent odds by CME Watch, the chance to see an increase in the rates is 22% for today and 58.2% in December and it looks like the markets have been pricing it since several weeks ago. However, with that being said, high volatility is expected as the uncertainty is on the air and several analysts don't agree on timing for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing that the pair is supported by a bullish trend line draw from July 27th lows. Also, we're seeing a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA and eventually we may see a rebound towards the resistance zone of 1.1239 ahead of the Fed's meeting. With a hawkish scenario and a rate hike, EUR/USD may plummet towards the support zone of 1.1076 on a first degree, while a dovish stance by Yellen should drive the pair to the resistance level of 1.1297.

EURUSDH4(22).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10547
 
AUD/USD: Aussie's fate is in the hands of resistance forces
9/21/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, "bulls" managed to return quotes to their lower boundary of the rising trading channel. Breakout of the diagonal resistance can cause a further rise towards the 0.761 level. In contrast, the rebound with the ensuing successful test of the support at the 0,752 level will open the door for the return to the downtrend.

Screenshot_2016_09_21_07_46_17.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the short-term rising trading channel is formed. A successful attack on its lower boundary near the the 0.751 level will increase the risk of return to AUD/USD September lows, with the subsequent continuation of the decline in the direction of 0,734-0,736.

Screenshot_2016_09_21_07_46_33.png


Recommendation: SELL 0,751 SL 0,7565 TP 0,736

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10548
 
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