Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: calm before the storm
8/25/2016

On the daily chart USD/JPY is consolidating in the 99.8-100.8 area. The break of resistance at 100.83 will allow the correction to continue towards 102.25 and 102.69. If the pair renews August low, this will be a signal of the downtrend resumption and will send the pair to 98.96 and 97.84.

On H1 USD/JPY is finishing a triangle. If the pair rises above the upper border of the pattern and then gets to 100.83, its chances to reach 88.6% target (102) пof the "Bat" pattern will increase. On the other hand, break of support at 99.95 will mean resumption of the downtrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10192

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls are fighting back
8/25/2016

On the daily USD/CAD chart there was an unsuccessful attempt of bears to make the prices leave the rising triangle. Recoil from convergence area at 1.273-1.276 (88.6% of the Shark pattern + 61.8% Fibo of the last medium-term bullish wave) let the bulls take the lead. If the pair manages to settle above resistance at 1.2956-1.2977, risks of growth towards 1.3076 and 1.3306 will increase.

On H1 USD/CAD the downtrend changed to the uptrend. Break of resistance at 1.2956 will let the pair keep rising toewards convergence area of 1.303-1.3034 (161.8% target of AB=CD + 61.8% Fibo of the last bearish wave).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10193

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: back into the Cloud
8/25/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1270, 1.1230, 1.1200; resistance – 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1200; SL — 1.1180; TP1 — 1.1330; TP2 – 1.1360.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10194

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: rebounding from the Senkou Span B
8/25/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7680, 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7720.

Reason: a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bullish Ichimoku Cloud; strong support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10195

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to reach next support
8/25/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been formed under a resistance at 1.1381. However, the price faced a support by the 34 Moving Average afterwards, so there’s a local upward correction on the way. Considering a confirmation of the last “Double Top”, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.1235 – 1.1222. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

The price faced a support at 1.1253, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price is currently rising. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern here, so the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10196

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" stood in the way of bulls
8/25/2016

The price found a resistance at 1.3247, which led to the current consolidation. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3119 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.3247 – 1.3302.

We’ve got a consolidation along a resistance at 1.3247. Also, there’s a possible “Double Top” pattern, which hasn’t been finished yet. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.3183 – 1.3160 shortly. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this area arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.3271 – 1.3302.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10197

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish impulse in wave iii going to start soon
8/25/2016

We’ve got two pullbacks from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) in a row, which points to a possible ending of wave [y] of C. Moreover, there’s a downward impulse in wave i, so after a local correction, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (a). The nearest intraday target is 3/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave v of (c) was truncated. So, we’ve got a bearish impulse in wave i, which was formed yesterday. It’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave ii during the day. If we see a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward impulse.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10199

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, August 25th
8/25/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 64 984 ? + 47 692 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1289; 1.1308; 1.1324; 1.1343
Closest support levels 1.1251; 1.1225; 1.1205; 1.1180
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1289, with the target points at 1.1308 and 1.1324
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1251 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1225 and 1.1205

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 359 ? + 1 014 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3266; 1.3290; 1.3327; 1.3351
Closest support levels 1.3189; 1.3156; 1.3134; 1.3108
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3266, with the target points at 1.3290 and 1.3327
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3189 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3156 and 1.3134


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 643 ? + 900 ?
Closest resistance levels 100.63; 100.83(98?); 101.17; 101.41
Closest support levels 100.33; 100.13(03?); 99.71; 99.49
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.63, with the target points at 100.83 and 101.17
Alternative scenario Moving below 100.33 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.13 and 99.71


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 180 ? + 143 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2963; 1.2985; 1.3017; 1.3062
Closest support levels 1.2908; 1.2890; 1.2860; 1.2821
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy USD/CAD above 1.2963, with the target points at 1.2985 and 1.3017
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2908 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2890 and 1.2860

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10201

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test "Window" once again
8/25/2016

There’s a correction inside the main bullish trend. We’ve got a “Hammer” in the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the upper side of the nearest “Window”. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price found a lodgement under the “Window”, which could act as a resistance once again. So, after a local correction bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

We’ve got a bullish “Harami” and a “Three Methods” pattern at the last low. Under this circumstances, bulls are likely going to reach the nearest “Window’s” upper side.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10208

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls and bears fighting inside the "Window"
8/25/2016

There’s a strong resistance by the 21 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on this line. However, a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak, so the nearest “Window” is likely going to be tested once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price is consolidating under the closest resistance line, so bears will probably try to reach the lower “Window” in the short term.

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Doji” on the 89 Moving Average, which both have been confirmed enough. At the same time, there’s a bullish “Harami” as well, so the market is likely going to test the local highs again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10209

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead of Jackson Hole: Will Janet Yellen define us today the mid-term trend for US Dollar?
8/26/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT will be the main event of the week in financial markets, as the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium and all traders will be looking for hints of further rate hike by the central bank before the end of the year, or in the other scenario, in September's meeting. However, some experts aren't expecting major information to be delivered by Yellen during this event, which is also an academic symposium and likely it will bring some kind of information that goes on that line.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H1 chart ahead of that event is still calling for the upside, amid recent US dollar's strengthening. Currently, a bullish trend line from August 24th low can be seen on this timeframe and eventually it should act as dynamic support. EUR could rally towards the resistance zone of 1.1320, in case that Yellen didn't bring clear hints of further hikes on this year. In the hawkish scenario, a breakout below the support zone of 1.1272 can push the pair towards the 1.1209 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10210

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro met an inside bar
8/26/2016

On the daily EUR/USD chart the bulls managed to make the pair hold above support at 1.1269 and counterattacked. The pair formed an inside bar, which points at uncertainty. The break of yesterday's low at 1.124 will make the pair decline to 1.1175. Resistance is near 1.1345.

On H1 convergence area of 1.1233-1.1244 became a big obstacle for the bears. If the bulls manage to bring the pair above 1.1290, the pair will fight to overcome the lower border of the bullish channel. On the contrary, another test of support will increase the risks of decline to 1.1169.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10213

 

[riki143]

Gold: bears want to leave the ledge
8/26/2016

On the daily chart of XAU/USD the bears managed to bring the pair below the lower border of the short-term uptrend and pull it to support at $1313 an ounce. Successful test of the ledge's lower border ("Spike and ledge" pattern based on 1-2-3) will allow the pair to slide towards $1280 and lower.

On H1 after the pair reached target of the triangle and settled below $1345, so that the bears got control. Targets of senior and junior AB=CD patterns allowed to spot convergence area of $1312-1316. Its successful test will make the pair resume descent, recoil will allow the pair to rise towards $1332,5.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10214

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local upward movement going to move on
8/26/2016

Bulls faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, so the price is currently declining. Considering the last “Double Top” pattern, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards a resistance at 1.1365 – 1.1381.

We’ve got a consolidation along the Moving Averages. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324 during the day. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to catch the next support at 1.1244 – 1.1235.

More:
[UR:L=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10215]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10215[/URL]

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: price faced support by local uptrend
8/26/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the market achieved a support at 1.3160. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.3119 soon. At the same time, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.3271 – 1.3302 as a possible bullish intraday target.

The price faced a support by the local uptrend, which led to an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3214. So, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3247 shortly. However, if we see a pullback from here, there’ll be a chance to have another decline towards a support at 1.3183 – 1.3160.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10216

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bulls are trying to return the positions
8/26/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1270; resistance – 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1300; SL — 1.1280; TP1 — 1.1360; TP2 – 1.1450.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the prices breaking out the resistance of Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10217

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: under the Senkou Span A
8/26/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 100.40; SL — 100.60; TP1 — 99.00; TP2 — 98.50.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; a strong consolidation under resistance of Senkou Span A.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10218

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver wave iii
8/26/2016

There’s a possible ended zigzag in wave (c) of [y], which led to form a downward impulse in wave i. Also, we’ve got a double pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (a) shortly, so we should keep an eye on 3/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave i, which has been formed right after a diagonal triangle in wave v of (c). Also, there’s a probable zigzag in wave ii. So, if bears finds a lodgement under 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250), there’ll be an opportunity to have wave iii.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10219

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls supported by "Hammer"
8/26/2016

There’s a correction under the nearest “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer” on the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again. If we see a pullback from its upper side, there’ll be an opportunity to have an achievement of the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” under the closest “Window”, so bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Shooting Star” at the local high. In this case, it’s likely to see a support by the lower side of the “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls are likely going to deliver a local upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10220

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7300
8/26/2016

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7300
Next buy target - 0.7400
NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7300, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7300 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (v), which belongs to the C-wave from the middle of July (which began when the pair reversed up from the support zone near the round support level 0.7000).

NZD/USD is expected to continue the upward movement in the direction of the next resistance level 0.7400 (coinciding with the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from last year).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10223