Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: unending consolidation
8/26/2016

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Tweezers” at the local high, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to see one more test of the nearest “Window”. If it acts as a support, bulls are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance level, but bears are still free to achieve the lower “Window” in the short term.

The price is moving up and down in a range of the Monday’s “Window”. We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three Methods” patterns, so the market is likely going to reach the lower side of the range. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to push the market a little bit higher.

More:https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10221

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone
8/26/2016

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.7000
GBP/AUD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.7500, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous minor impulse wave 3 and the lower trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year (acting as resistance now after it was broken in July). This trendline earlier reversed waves 2 and (b), as can be seen from the daily GBP/AUD chart below.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall down further inside the active (b)-wave of the minor ABC correction 4 toward the next sell target 1.7000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.7500.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10222

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, August 29th
8/29/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 39 305 ? - 29 614 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1221; 1.1250; 1.1271; 1.1299
Closest support levels 1.1187; 1.1164/48; 1.1125; 1.1097
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1221, with the target points at 1.1250 and 1.1271
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1187 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1164 and 1.1125


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 062 ? + 943 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3156; 1.3178; 1.3215; 1.3239
Closest support levels 1.3105; 1.3082; 1.3064; 1.3042
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3105, with target points at 1.3082 and 1.3064
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3156 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3178 and 1.3215

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 768 ? + 1 446 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.41; 102.62; 102.88; 103.19
Closest support levels 101.66; 101.37; 100.99; 100.73
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 102.41, with the target points at 102.62 and 102.88
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.66 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.37 and 100.99


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 943 ? + 905 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3033; 1.3051; 1.3086; 1.3134
Closest support levels 1.2974; 1.2948; 1.2912; 1.2860
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3033, with the target points at 1.3051 and 1.3086
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2974 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2948 and 1.2912

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10228

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears celebrating trend breakdown
8/29/2016

We’ve got a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the current bearish price movement. Also, the last uptrend has been broken. So, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1130 in the short term.

The pair faced a support at 1.1176, so we’ve got a local consolidation. In this case, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1235 – 1.1244 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement towards the next support at 1.1176 – 1.1152.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10229

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to massive decline
8/29/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3056. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to see a local upward correction.

The last uptrend has been broken, which led to an achievement of a support at 1.3119. So, it’s likely to see a local correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.3160. However, bears are still strong, so the price is likely going to reach the next support at 1.3069 – 1.3032 in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10230

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave iii going to be extended
8/29/2016

Wave (c) of [y] was formed last week, so there’s a downward impulse in wave (a), which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Therefore, wave iii of (a) is likely going to be continued in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on 1/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as the next bearish target.

We’ve got a double zigzag in wave ii, which was ended last Friday. Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave [1]. In this case, wave [3] of iii is likely going to move on towards 0/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10234

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD reversed from resistance zone
8/29/2016

GBP/USD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.3000
GBP/USD continues to decline - following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3250 (which is the lower boundary of the powerful resistance area which reversed the pervious corrective waves (2) and 2, as can be seen below). The last downward reversal form this resistance zone created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.

GBP/USD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) (which belong to the primary downward impulse wave ? from June) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.3000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10235

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY rising inside primary impulse wave ?
8/29/2016

USD/JPY rising inside primary impulse wave ?
Next buy target - 104.00
USD/JPY continues to rise inside the primary impulse wave ? - which started in the middle of August – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 100.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair, which also reversed USD/JPY sharply in June and July) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The pair is currently approaching the resistance level 102.65 (top of the previous intermediate (B)-wave). If the price breaks above the resistance level 102.65 - USD/JPY can then be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 104.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10236

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
8/29/2016

EUR/USD declined last week closing below the July-August support line and 100-day MA at 1.1220. The decline was caused mainly by the strengthening of the US dollar.

The European fundamental factors don’t give the euro many reasons to rise either. There were some positive news from the region’s manufacturing sector, as German and euro zone’s manufacturing PMIs both pointed to expansion. However, German Ifo Business Climate dropped to 6-month low of 106.2 points in the August report. The nation’s economic growth slowed down from 0.7% in the 1st quarter to 0.4% in the 2nd quarter. Next week there will be more data releases from the euro area’s leading economy: retail sales, inflation and unemployment change. The euro area will publish inflation figures on Wednesday.

Technically it looks like after breaking support the euro may suffer further declines versus the greenback. Support is at 1.1140 and 1.1105 ahead of 1.1040. Strong resistance is in the 1.1250 area.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10239

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
8/29/2016

GBP/USD ended last week in the positive territory, but failed to stay at highs.

On the one hand, British pound was supported amid optimism that the consequences of the Brexit decision may not be as severe as first feared, after a report showed that UK consumer confidence rose the most in more than 3 years. On the other hand, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve made the US dollar strengthen - reminding about divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England.

Technically GBP/USD turned lower from resistance line, which has been in place since the end of June and has potential to test support at 1.3020 and, perhaps, even at 1.29 in case of strong US statistics. Resistance is at 1.3180 and 1.3260.

Important events in British economic calendar include net lending to individuals on Tuesday, manufacturing PMI on Thursday and Construction PMI on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10240

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
8/29/2016

Last week USD/JPY managed to hold above 100.00 support and rise to 101.80 on the hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve.

In addition, data showed that Japanese core consumer prices fell for a fifth month in a row and marked the biggest annual drop in more than three years in July. Such statistics will keep the Bank of Japan under pressure to ease monetary policy in September and represent a bullish factor for USD/JPY.

Technically USD/JPY has potential to strengthen to 103.00/50 and 104.00 before it faces downtrend resistance line of 2016. Only a big increase in market’s expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will make the pair reverse the overall bearish trend, so be careful with bullish targets and look for the signals that the bullish correction is over at the mentioned resistance levels. Support is located at 101.80, 101.00 and 100.00.

Japan will release household spending on Tuesday, preliminary industrial production on Wednesday and capital spending on Thursday. Also watch US economic calendar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10241

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
8/29/2016

AUD/USD formed a very bearish candle on Friday and fell below May-July support line. The decline of Australian dollar was caused by the general strength of the US dollar and a pause in advance of commodity prices.

This week Australia will release building approvals on Tuesday and private capital expenditure and retail sales on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Debelle will speak on Wednesday. The market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, the dynamics of Australian dollar will be also affected by China’s manufacturing and non0manufacturing indexes due on Thursday.

Support is at 0.7530, 0.7500 and 0.7455. Resistance is at 0.7600, 0.7650 and 0.7700. Selling Aussie on the pair’s attempts to recover seems like the best strategy.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10242

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for Aug. 29 - Sep. 4
8/29/2016

US dollar index made strong gains on Friday closing above July-August resistance line. US currency has potential to strengthen to 95.95 (May high) and 96.00. Support is in the 94.95 area.

Data confirmed that US GDP growth has slowed down in Q2 from 2.6% to 1.1%. However, the market’s attention was focused not on this figures, but on comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said in Jackson Hole that the case for an interest rate hike has strengthened in recent months as the labor market and economy have improved. As a result, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike rose from 21% to 33% for September and from 52% to 59% for December.

Although Yellen gave no hints on the timing of any hike, but Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer claimed that Yellen's speech was consistent with expectations for possible interest rate increases this year. Fisher’s words became the main bullish driver for the greenback. Fisher also noted that August nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday, September 2, will play a big role in the Fed’s decision. Other important events in the US economic calendar this week include CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report Chicago PMI and pending home sales on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

All in all, the dynamics of the US dollar will be data-dependent. Members of the Federal Reserve are divided about a rate hike, to the market’s expectations of a rate hike may swing in either direction and have an impact on the currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10243

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & CB Consumer Confidence: How long can be the correction in the US dollar?
8/30/2016

This week we'll have some major headlines in terms of macro data from the United States and today we'll start with the CB Consumer Confidence due to be released at 14:00 GMT. Last reading gave us a 97.3 number, but analysts are expecting a possible decrease at least to the 97.2 for August. During the last three data, CB showed a positive pattern, with only posting a decline from 94.7 to 92.6 in May.

Overall, in terms of technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart, following the Jackson Hole Symposium that strengthened to the US Dollar across the board, we're seeing a consolidation above the 50 and 200 SMA. The nearest support can be found at the 101.87 level, that should have a breakout to the downside in the negative scenario from CB Consumer Confidence, while a positive one should push the pair to test higher levels above the resistance zone of 102.33.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10244

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD is losing ground
8/30/2016

On the daily chart EUR/USD after reaching the targets of AB=CD pattern and leaving the bullish channel the euro reached support at 1.1175 (38.2% of the last descending wave). As a result, the pair formed a doji bar. If the pair falls below its minimum, risks of decline to 1.1072 will increase.

On H1 after the reversal of EUR/USD the combination of "Tree Indians" pattern and 1-2-3 made the pair reach 224% of AB=CD. The bears ran into support at 1.1169. Below this leve we'll see a decline to 1.1115 and lower. In line with the principle of the widening wedge, traders should sell the euro on attempts to rise to 1.1206 and 1.1233-1.1244.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10245

 

[riki143]

USD/jPY: bulls backed off
8/30/2016

On the daily chart the break of resistance at 100.83 made the pair go to the upper border of the previous consolidation range of 100.8-102.7. If the sellers manage to keep the pair below yesterday's high, pin bar after the 80-20 model will increase the risks of the bearish counterattack. On the contrary, if the pair renews yesterday's highs, the bulls will continue correction towards the upper border of the long-term descending channel.

On H1 USD/JPY emerged from the triangle and this let the bulls to reach 88.6% target of the Bat pattern. After that the pair formed descending triangle. Successful test of its lower border will increase risks of a pullback towards 101.3. On the other hand, if the pair rises above its upper border and then reaches ? 102.4 high, it will mean that the rally continues.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10246

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: on the Clouds support
8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1160, 1.1100; resistance – 1.1205, 1.1250.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1160; SL — 1.1140; TP1 — 1.1205; TP2 – 1.1250.

Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10247

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the Bulls have lost the positions above the Cloud
8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3020, 1.2965; resistance – 1.3120.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3080; SL — 1.3100; TP1 — 1.3020; TP2 — 1.2965.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10248

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: at the crossroads
8/30/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7540/60; resistance – 0.7590, 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680.

Reason: Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the Senkou Span B is going up; there is a strong support on the D1-timeframe.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10249

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, August 30th
8/30/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 216 532 ? + 70 035 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1216; 1.1243; 1.1265; 1.1293
Closest support levels 1.1153; 1.1130; 1.1102; 1.1068
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1216, with the target points at 1.1243 and 1.1265
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1153 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1130 and 1.1102


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 532 ? + 201 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3138; 1.3162; 1.3180; 1.3202
Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3035; 1.3011; 1.2983
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3055, with target points at 1.3035 and 1.3011
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3138 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3162 and 1.3180


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 720 ? + 611 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.39; 102.57; 102.83; 103.14
Closest support levels 101.78; 101.51(35?); 101.13; 100.87
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy USD/JPY above 102.39, with the target points at 102.57 and 102.83
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.78 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.13


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 289 ? + 488 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3058; 1.3089; 1.3135; 1.3196
Closest support levels 1.2982; 1.2955; 1.2917
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3058, with the target points at 1.3089 and 1.3135
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2955 and 1.2917

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10252