Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

XAU/USD: ran into a triangle
8/18/2016

On the daily XAU/USD chart there's an uptrend channel, within which the pair formed "Spike and ledge" pattern on the pasis of 1-2-3. Successful test of the upper border of the ledge ($1365) will allow the bulls to continue rally at least to $1410 an ounce (200% according to AB=CD). On the contrary, a break of support at $1313 will strengthen the risks of corrective move towards the lower border of the trend channel ($1280).

On H1 decline in volatility led to formation of a triangle. If the pair leaves the triangle, it may lead to serious growth or decline in the pair. Resistance levels are at $1354, $1362 and $1366 an ounce. Look for support near $1345, $1339 and $1332.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10110

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, August 18
8/18/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 29 330 ? - 45 782 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1326; 1.1348; 1.1366; 1.1388
Closest support levels 1.1288; 1.1256; 1.1238; 1.1216
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1326, with the target points at 1.1348 and 1.1366
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1288 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1256 and 1.1238

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 424 ? + 968 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3116(33?); 1.3153; 1.3176; 1.3202
Closest support levels 1.3027; 1.3000; 1.2968; 1.2948
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3116, with the target points at 1.3153 and 1.3176
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3027 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3000 and 1.2968

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 1 676 ? + 1 913 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.00; 101.45; 101.74; 102.07
Closest support levels 99.70; 99.37; 99.16; 98.90
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 99.70, with target points at 99.37 and 99.16
Alternative scenario Moving above 101.00 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.45 and 101.74

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 190 ? + 975 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2868; 1.2883; 1.2908; 1.2943
Closest support levels 1.2809; 1.2789; 1.2763; 1.2726
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2809, with target points at 1.2789 and 1.2763
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2868 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.2883 and 1.2908

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10111

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: will the Indians stop the bulls?
8/19/2016

On the daily chart EUR/USD, as expected, managed to reach convergence area of 1.1343-1.1358 (61.8% Fibonacci of the last bullish wave + upper border of the bullish trend channel). Then the pair consolidated. Buyers keep gathering strength for a new attack. If it succeeds, the euro may rise to 1.1420 and 1.1462.

On H1 EUR/USD formed "Three Indians" pattern at 161.8% of the BC wave of AB=CD pattern. This increased risks of correction. The nearest support levels are near 1.1307 and 1.1259. On the contrary, increase to August high will make the pair rise to 1.1421 (200% of AB=CD) and higher.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10120

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears feel like home
8/19/2016

On the daily USD/CHF chart the pair teached 127.2% AB=CD target, after which it made a sizeable recoil to the downside. Inability of the bulls to hold above important support of 0.956 will increase risks of decline to 0.9485 (161.8%) and 0.94 (200%). The nearest resistance level is at 0.9595.

On H1 USD/CHF is trading within a descending trend channel. The pair for now failed to reach 161.8% AB=CD pattern target, although the bears don't stop attempts to do that. Sellers will act at 0.9575, 0.9595 and 0.965.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10121

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the inspired bulls
8/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1300, 1.1270; resistance – 1.1350, 1.1450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1300; SL — 1.1280; TP1 — 1.1350; TP2 – 1.1450.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is overbought.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10122

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: breaking out the resistance of the Cloud
8/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3120, 1.3080; resistance – 1.3160, 1.3230.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3120; SL — 1.3100; TP1 — 1.3230; TP2 — 1.3290.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the bulls are breaking out the Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10123

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: trades in the Cloud has continued
8/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7590; resistance – 0.7660.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7660; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: a dead cross, but Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10124/03-audusdh4(7).png[/IMG}

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10124]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10124[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the Bears get a strength
8/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.20/40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 100.20; SL — 100.40; TP1 — 99.00; TP2 — 98.50.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10125

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, August 19th
8/19/2016

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 145 ? + 583 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3190; 1.3214; 1.3230; 1.3250
Closest support levels 1.3116; 1.3092; 1.3075; 1.3055
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3190, with the target points at 1.3214 and 1.3230
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3116 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3092 and 1.3075

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 137 ? + 617 ?
Closest resistance levels 100.68; 100.87; 101.09; 101.36
Closest support levels 99.74; 99.48; 99.20; 99.00
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.68, with the target points at 100.87 and 101.09
Alternative scenario Moving below 99.74 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 99.48 and 99.20

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 979 ? + 148 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2825; 1.2858; 1.2903; 1.2958
Closest support levels 1.2757; 1.2736; 1.2715; 1.2687 (critical)
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy USD/CAD above 1.2825, with the target points at 1.2858 and 1.2903
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2757 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2736 and 1.2715

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10126

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls faced "V-Top" pattern
8/19/2016

The consolidation above the previously broken trend has been finally ended by the fast bullish rally, but the price faced a resistance at 1.1381. Also, we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1324 – 1.1349. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1381 – 1.1398.

We’ve got a “Flag” pattern on the one-hour chart, which led to the current upward price movement. Considering a “V-Top” pattern, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10127

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: Moving Averages waiting for bears
8/19/2016

The price found a resistance on the 89 Moving Average, so the market is likely going to achieve the 55 & 34 Moving Averages. However, there’s a “Double Bottom” as well, which makes possible the next bullish movement.

There’s a flat under the closest support at 1.3119. Therefore, it’s likely to see a decline towards the next support at 1.3092. At the same time, is a pullback from this level arrives, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.3183 – 1.3247.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10128

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Diagonal Triangle" has been formed
8/19/2016

The price faced a resistance on 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), so there’s a possible ending of wave ? in a form of a double zigzag. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in wave [a] of D. The main bearish target is 3/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an ended diagonal triangle in wave v of (c). Also, we’ve got a downward impulse in wave i, which could be the first bearish step into wave D. In this case, the price is likely going to reach 5/8 Murrey Math Level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10129

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" brought bearish correction into the market
8/19/2016

There’s a local correction, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Previously, a “Harami” pattern was formed at the local high. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a possible “Harami”, so there’s an opportunity to have a downward correction.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10130/1908eurusdh1.png[/UIMG]

We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which highlights bearish pressure on the ground. So, the pair is likely going to test the lower side of the nearest “Window”.

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10130]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10130[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver deeper correction
8/19/2016

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami” at the last lows, which both have been confirmed. So, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an “Inverted Hammer”, so an upward correction has a reason to be continued.

There’re an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers”. Also, we’ve got a strong resistance by the 34 Moving Average. Under this circumstances, the main intraday target is the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10133

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for August 22-28
8/19/2016

US dollar survived another week of declines. Despite hawkish comments of the Fed members Williams and Dudley, FOMC July meeting minutes showed that not all policymakers think that the central bank should raise rates in the near term.

Economic data released during the past week mixed. Monthly growth of American consumer prices has stalled and Empire State manufacturing index declined. However, industrial production growth accelerated and the number of unemployment claims dropped more than expected.

The lack of unity from the Fed and ambiguous economic figures didn’t make investors price in higher possibility of the Fed’s rate hike. According to CME, futures market is pricing in 15% possibility of a hike in September and less than 5% chance of increase in December. In other words, traders don’t believe that hawkish comments of the Fed members will be followed by action. Low expectations of a rate hike represent the main negative factor for USD.

The picture may change next week, when global central bankers will meet at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may follow Williams and Dudley hinting that the Fed will raise interest rates rather sooner than later. That would be reasonable as it makes more sense for the Fed to prepare traders for potential hike than not. The market should give more weight to Yellen’s words and this would be a reason for a bullish pullback in the greenback. However, if the head of US central bank sounds cautious, we’ll see another selloff of American currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10134

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for August 22-28
8/19/2016

The bears kept USD/JPY pinned to the 100.00 area. The pair was supported as some Japanese investors want to buy dollars on moves towards 99.00. Yet, the picture remains negative and it seems only a question of time before the pair slides down. Target is at 98.70. Resistance is located at 101.20, 101.60 and 102.00.

Trading next week will likely be more volatile as global central bankers meet in Jackson Hole amid low summer liquidity. Speech of the Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen will likely make USD/JPY leave consolidation range. As for Japanese economic calendar, the nation will release inflation data early on Friday.

A representative of Japanese financial authorities said that they were watching for speculative currency market moves and would respond if needed. Analysts think that Japanese interventions will be more likely not at current levels, but lower, around 96-95.00. As for the position of the Bank of Japan, traders don’t expect much from the central bank and this supports the yen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10135

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for August 22-28
8/19/2016

AUD/USD once again failed to get above 0.7755. Close below 100-day MA at 0.7625 will increase bearish pressure on the pair pulling it down to 0.7530/00.

Good Australian labor market data failed to trigger sustainable buying of Aussie. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on Australia’s banks to negative from stable, warning of sluggish profit growth.

Next week apart from Jackson Hole Symposium watch Australian construction work done on Wednesday. Aussie was supported in the past week by the rally in stocks and commodities. However, as markets price in a greater chance of Fed tightening at the September meeting, risk sentiment and equities may come under pressure which would be negative for Australian currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10136

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for August 22-28
8/19/2016

During the past week EUR/USD mounted from the bottom of the 4-week bullish channel to its top. Next week some correction to the downside may develop. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1235 and 1.1190. Resistance is at 1.1380, 1.1405 and 1.1450.

The euro has been holding its ground recently, despite the fact that its current levels are not supported by the yield differentials. Generally cheaper US dollar partly explains this phenomenon.

So far economic data from the euro area was mostly alright, pointing that the region is not hit hard by the Brexit. July inflation reading was positive, economic sentiment improved and current account surplus remains big. Next week the euro zone will release flash manufacturing PMIs on Monday. Germany will publish Ifo business climate index on Tuesday. All in all, for now traders don’t think that the European Central Bank will necessarily have to ease policy in September. This is a supporting factor for the single currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10137

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for August 22-28
8/19/2016

Hello dear traders! My name is Angela, this is FBS analytical portal FX Bazooka and you are watching the weekly outlook for the British Pound.

The British pound recovered on solid economic data released in the UK. A block of inflation figures showed that price growth accelerated in July, the number of unemployment claims declined and retail sales rose by 1.4% after declining by 0.9% in June. These statistics mean that for now British economy isn’t hit by Brexit as it was thought to be.

A close above 1.3070 will form a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. That would make possible recovery to 1.33. Note, however, that once investors get reminded about the divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, negative trend in GBP/USD will resume. Such a reminder may come from the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech next week. Support is at 1.3040, 1.2970 and 1.2840.

As for the UK economic calendar, the nation will release second estimate of Q2 GDP and business investment data on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10138

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US durable goods orders: Greenback ahead of Jackson Hole
8/25/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT we'll know the US durable goods orders on a monthly basis, where the analysts are looking for an increase from -3.9% to 3.3%. This data could be a market mover for today in US dollar, alongside with the Jackson Hole Symposium that will start today and Janet Yellen is due to speak on Friday. That rise from the durable goods orders is highly expected, following it had a dip on the last month's reading of 3.9%.

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair at H1 chart is showing us a triangle pattern in formation between the 100.87 and 99.63 levels, According to the recent price action, the pair may face some selling pressure around the 200 SMA on this timeframe, as for now, it didn't manage to consolidate above it. However, if the pair does a breakout with a big candlestick at that zone to the upside, our next target would be the 101.00 psychological level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10191