Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016

Despite good nonfarm payrolls data, it wasn’t a week of strength for the US dollar: riskier currencies were more popular because of good risk sentiment. The greenback is supported by the fact that other major central banks are easing monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve still claims that it may raise interest rates this year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England and cut the benchmark interest rate to the record low. However, data on Friday showed that American core retail sales contracted by 0.3% in July, while producer price fell by 0.4%. This was a serious disappointment for the market.

Next week there will be more economic data from the US: building permits, consumer prices, housing starts and industrial production on Tuesday, FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday.

The minutes will be from July 27 meeting, when American central bank left interest rates unchanged and said risks to the US economy had declined. If the Fed officials try to persuade the market that September is a ‘live’ month when it may raise rates, the US dollar may strengthen a bit, though we don’t think that the market will put much faith into such statements. If the regulator sounds more cautious, the greenback will get under renewed bearish pressure. More sizeable hints on further US monetary policy are expected at the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 26. Until then traders are more likely to be bearish than bullish on the US currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10046

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Not a major catalyst for today
8/15/2016

Today should be a very flat day in the markets, as in most of the European and South American countries will have holidays. That's why we're seeing a very light economic calendar, but on the American's side, we'll have the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 12:30 GMT, where the markets are expecting an increase from 0.55 to 2.50. That should have the medium impact on US Dollar across the board.

Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still pointing to the downside, as the resistance zone of 1.1225, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the Brexit's decline, remains very strong. That should give further hints of possible strengthening on the greenback, but the weakness is still alive. The nearest support zone is located at the 1.1073 level and it should be key during this week. In the bullish scenario, a breakout above the 1.1225 level will expose the pre-Brexit high to be tested on a mid-term basis.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10053]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10053

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: цели покоряются упорным
8/15/2016

On the daily chart EUR/USD bulls made another attempt to conquer diagonal resistance at the upper border of the trend channel. Once again it was a failure, although the persistance of the buers may eventually bring fruits. As a result, risks are that the rally will continue to 1.1259 and 1.1343.

On H1 EUR/USD bears managed to repel an attack of their competitors. As a result, the pair formed resistance at 1.1209. The pair fell to 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave. Here, as well as at 1.1134 (lower border of the uptrend chanbel + 50% level) the bulls are ready to seize the initiative.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10054

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD found convergence
8/15/2016

On the daily GBP/USD chart the bears reached targets they set before. The pair met important convergence area at 1.2888-1.2946, and won't be able to continue declining until it falls below this region. Recoil will increase risks of the pair's return to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation in the 1.3075-1.3494 zone.

On H1 GBP/USD rwached 78.6% Gartley pattern target. Currently this level (1.2946) acts as resistance. Correction will increase probalility of selling from 1.3025, 1.3071 and higher. Successful test of support at 1.2888 will increase risks of continued decline to 1.2797 (224% target according to AB=CD).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10055

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Top" stood in the way of buyers
8/15/2016

The pair has faced resistance on the main downward trend, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current decline. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1130 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1222.

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which has stopped the last bullish rally. Also, we’ve got a support by the 34 Moving Average. So, it’s likely to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1196 during the day. Nevertheless, bears are still in the game, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.1136 – 1.1130 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10056

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: Moving Average waiting for bulls
8/15/2016

We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.2877. Also, here’s a new local low. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to move on towards a support at 1.2849 – 1.2795. If we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction.

The price found a support at 1.2906, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. In this case, it pair is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will try to deliver a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10057

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to move on
8/15/2016

There’s a possible “Triangle” in wave 4, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. It’s likely that wave [c] was ended last Friday, so it’s time for wave [d]. In this case, we should keep in mind 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250) as a target for wave [d] of 4.

We’ve got a pullback from 7/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which was the final point for wave (?) of [c]. Also, there’s a downward impulse in wave (a). So, bears are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [d] in the short term. If we see a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, there’ll be a sign that wave [d] is over.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10058

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, August 15th
8/15/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 271 015 ? - 374 592 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1189; 1.1213; 1.1229; 1.1248
Closest support levels 1.1142; 1.1126; 1.1105; 1.1079
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1142, with target points at 1.1126 and 1.1105
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1189 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1213 and 1.1229


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 491 ? + 1 795 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3020; 1.3042; 1.3067; 1.3095
Closest support levels 1.2918; 1.2888; 1.2864/48; 1.2829
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2918, with target points at 1.2888 and 1.2864
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3020 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3042 and 1.3067


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 868 ? + 492 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.81; 102.00; 102.20; 102.45
Closest support levels 100.93; 100.61; 100.43; 100.22
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.93, with target points at 100.61 and 100.43
Alternative scenario Moving above 101.81 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.00 and 102.20

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10059

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Doji" set up bullish correction
8/15/2016

There’s a “Harami” at the local high, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will try to deliver a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” at the last maximum, so there’s a opportunity to have another downward price movement.

]IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10066/1508eurusdh1.png[/IMG]

We’ve got a “Harami” and “Three Black Crows” at the last high. Also, there’s a strong support by the 21 Moving Average. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance. However, sellers will probably try to return into the market afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10066

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new low
8/15/2016

The main trend is still bearish. There’re a “Harami” and a “Tower” on the 34 Moving Average, so the bears are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible to see more seller’s pressure.

The price has been falling down since a “Shooting Star” arrives at the last high. Considering a local “Hammer”, there’s an opportunity to have an intraday correction. However, bears are likely going to deliver a new low soon.

More:
https://new.fxbaazooka.com/analytics/10067

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP broke resistance level 0.8620
8/15/2016

EUR/GBP broke resistance level 0.8620
Next buy target - 0.8800
EUR/GBP recently broke through the resistance level 0.8620, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.8620 accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which is a part of the longer-term upward impulse 5 of the intermediate impulse (3) from the end of May.

The active impulse wave 5 started earlier from the support zone surrounding the support level 0.8300. EUR/GBP is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.8800. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 0.8620.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10068

 

[riki143]

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.6750
8/15/2016

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.6750
Next sell target - 1.6250
GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to impulse 5 of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of May. The price today broke the support level 1.6750, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.6750 is likely to intensify the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

GBP/CAD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6250 (target price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10069

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for August 16
8/15/2016

On Monday US dollar continued feeling the negative consequences of disappointing US macroeconomic data released on Friday. Although US dollar index managed to recover from the day’s lows on Friday, it started the new week under pressure. America will release inflation figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday: economists think that weak July retails sales reading may affect the nation’s CPI. Lower inflation means that the Fed will be in no hurry to raise rates – bearish factor for the greenback. The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December declined from 45% to 41%. As a result, we get an environment, in which dollar is weaker against both safe haven and commodity currencies. Other events in the US economic calendar on Tuesday include building permits, housing starts and industrial production.

EUR/USD is supported and has some limited potential for growth (20-day MA went above the 200-day MA, though longer-term moving averages remain almost horizontal that means the lack of directional pulls for the pair). Despite the euro area’s weak economic data, there’s demand for the euro’s because of the region’s current account surplus. Resistance is at 1.1190 and 1.1225 (100-day MA). Support is at 1.1135 and 1.1100. German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes will be released on Tuesday at 09:00 GMT.

USD/JPY is testing lower levels. The picture is negative, although the bearish momentum isn’t strong. Support is at 100.50 ahead of 100.00 and 99.77. Resistance lies at 101.60. Japan’s economy showed annual growth of 0.2% in Q2, well below expectations for 0.7 % growth. Yet, the news didn’t have any significant impact on the market – it seems that traders would be surprised if the nation’s economic growth accelerated. The key thing is that for now traders don’t expect much from the Bank of Japan, so the yen remains in demand.

GBP/USD fell below 1.30 last week and is vulnerable for decline to 1.2847 in the coming days. Pound started the new week consolidating in 1.2905/40 area. There are some rumors that Brexit may be delayed, but this may bring not a relief, but uncertainty to sterling. On Tuesday the UK will release a block of inflation figures at 08:30 GMT. In addition, the Bank of England will conduct another bond purchase auction. Last Tuesday the auction didn’t attract enough sellers, and the pound declined. This time volatility will likely increase as well.

Riskier assets were supported by big gains in Chinese stocks which rose to 8-month highs on the expectations that the nation’s authorities will increase stimulus because of weaker economic data. In addition, oil prices remained supported by comments about potential OPEC agreement, though production remains high and growing.

AUD/USD went a bit up on Monday after Friday’s selloff. Increase above 0.7676 (July 15 high) is needed to open the way up to the next resistance at 0.7740. Below 0.7650 Aussie will slide to 0.7600. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10070

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD ahead Tuesday's UK data: A decline towards post-Brexit low?
8/16/2016

Today in the United Kingdom we'll have a bunch of events' release that should help to add volatility during this week on GBP pairs. At 08:30 GMT, will be published the CPI, which is the consumer indicator inflation and that should see a change from 0.2% to -0.1% in the monthly basis reading. Also, PPI input is expected to post a decline during July's reading, with a 1.0% forecast from the 1.8%, and lastly, but not less: UK unemployment rate, that should see a slight increase from 4.9% to 5.0%, according to the market's consensus.

Our technical picture for GBP/USD at H1 chart is calling for more declines, as the pair is currently trading inside a bearish channel below the 200 SMA. The nearest support is located at the 1.2850 level and we should consider it as the last hurdle before to reach the lowest level post-Brexit, around the 1.2795 price zone. That scenario should happen if UK data comes worst-than-expected. By another hand, a recovery should be limited to the 1.2950 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10072

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears conquer new territory
8/16/2016

On the daily chart USD/JPY breached below the lower border of 100.83-102.69 consolidation range and the downtrend resumed. As its targets we can name 99.94 (88.6% Fibo of the last bullish wave), 98.96 (100%), 97.84 (113%) and 96.61 (127.2%). The former support at 100.83 acts as the main resistance.

On H1 the bears keep the situation under control. The pair's moving towards the lower border of the uptrend channel. The main strategies are to sell on growth and on break of importent support levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10075

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie is at the pause
8/16/2016

On the daily chart AUD/USD bears failed to keep the pair under resistance of 0.7688. The bulls are trying to return the initiative. If they succeed, the possibility of uptrend resumption will increase. On the othe rhand, decline of the pair below 0.763 will open the way down to 0.757.

On H1 trend was followed by consolidation in the 0.7641-0.7723 area. Successful test of its lower border will allow the pair to make a corrective move towards 0.7590 and 0.7550. The break of resistance at 0.7723 will open the way to 0.775 and give hope to the bulls.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10076

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound has renewed local minimums
8/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2860; resistance – 1.2950.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2950; SL — 1.2970; TP1 — 1.2860; TP2 — 1.2810.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is a local oversold of market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10077

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: supported by the Cloud
8/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7680/90, 0.7630; resistance – 0.7730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7700; SL — 0.7680; TP1 — 0.7760; TP2 — 0.7790.

Reason: a dead cross but Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10078

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY aims at July minimums
8/16/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.60/80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 100.60; SL — 100.80; TP1 — 100.00; TP2 — 99.00.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; falling down Ichimoku lines; the market has exit from the oversold area.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10079

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls try to deliver a new local high
8/16/2016

There’s a correction, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement towards a support at 1.1186 – 1.1164.

We’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so bulls are likely going to move on. The nearest target is a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. If buyers be stopped here, then bears will probably try to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10080