Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000
8/11/2016

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000
Next sell target - 1.2840
GBP/USD today broke below the round support level 1.3000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier – when the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance zone surrounding the pivotal resistance level 1.3400.

GBP/USD is expected to continue to fall in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.2840 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1 in July).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10030

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4500
8/11/2016

EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4500
Next sell targets - 1.4300
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the long-term support level 1.4500, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from December (as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.4500 is expected to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from February.

If the pair closes today below the support level 1.4500 - EUR/AUD can then be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4300 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave 5 and (C)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10031

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for August 12
8/11/2016

US dollar index hold its ground on Thursday after two previous days of decline. American unemployment claims came better than expected showing that the nation’s labor market is on good shape. We’ll find out more about American economy on Friday: the US will release retails sales, PPI (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence (14:00 GMT) figures. Also pay attention to China’s industrial production release during Friday’s Asian session: the reading will shape the market’s risk sentiment. Good reading will be positive for Australian dollar, while weak reading will increase demand for Japanese yen. Note that oil prices rose by about 1% on Thursday after the International Energy Agency forecasted crude markets would rebalance in the next few months following several years of heavy overproduction.

EUR/USD tested 1.1135, but the managed to return above the 50-day MA at 1.1150. Close above this point may give the bulls strength to attempt an increase to 1.1230 (100-day MA), but firstly they will need to clear resistance at 1.1180 (resistance line drawn through August highs). Technical developments at the daily chart favor the bullish outcome. Support is at 1.1120/00. Watch German preliminary GDP at 06:00 GMT. The euro area’s preliminary GDP will come out at 09:00 GMT.

GBP/USD declined on Thursday after it failed to sustain gains on Wednesday, However, indicators show that bearish momentum declined. Weekly pivot support at 1.2935 guards the downside. Next support is in the 1.2800 area. Resistance is at 1.3020. If the bulls manage to push the prices above this point, we will see deeper correction higher with targets at 1.3090/1.3100 and potentially even 1.3150.

USD/JPY remains under pressure. Break below support at 101.70 will open the way down to 100.70 and below that the target will be at 100.00. If the bulls somehow manage to change the situation – that doesn’t seem very likely – the pair will meet resistance at 101.80 and 101.75.

It seems that there are serious AUD/USD sellers in 0.7755 area. However, the bulls obviously don’t give up. As long as the pair remains above 0.7676 (July high, bottom of the upward trend channel), the outlook will remain bullish.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10032

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & U.S. Retail Sales: What will happen with the greenback?
8/12/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT we'll know the US retail sales numbers for July, where the markets are expecting a decrease from 0.6% to 0.4%, and the latest release suggested that the consumer force is a key factor for the economic growth during the second semester of the year in the United States. Bear in mind that the sales had a very poor start of the 2016 year, so the further data, in a positive manner, would help to boost the greenback.

The technical picture for USD/JPY at H4 chart is telling us that a bearish consolidation is still looking to add more downside momentum in order to break the lows post-Brexit. The support zone of 100.41 remains very solid and as long as the pair trades above it, then we can witness a breakout above the 102.55 level, in order to extend the bullish momentum.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10033

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD met Three Indians
8/12/2016

On the daily AUD/USD chart the pair formed "Three Indians" pattern. A pin bar appeared in the area of the third top, it's lower border is close to 78.6% Fibo of the last bullish wave. If the bears manage to hold the pair below 0.7688, risks of decline to 0.7570 will increase.

On H1 AUD/USD chart sellers are trying to pull the pair below support at 0.7676. It corresponds to the lower border of the uptrend channel. Successful test will make the pair decline to 0.7717-0.7627 (88.6% target of the "Shark" pattern + 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave) and 0.7587 (50%). The nearest resistance levels are at 0.7723 and 0.7750.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10036

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bouble bottom discouraged the bears
8/12/2016

On the daily USD/JPY chart the bulls keep aiming for resistance at 102.69. If the buyers manage to get here, risks of growth to 103.97 and 104.38 will increase. The latter corresponds to the upper border of an uptrend and 23.6% of the last long-term descending wave. On the contrary, if the pair renews August low, it will continue its way down to 98.

On H1 USD/JPY formed a double bottom. If the pair leaves 100.83-102.9 range, bearish trend will likely continue or we'll see development of correction to 103.97-104.08 and 104.89-105.06. The latter corresponds to 88.6% of the Bat pattern.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10037

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triple Top" stand in the way of bulls
8/12/2016

There’s a “Triple Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1120 – 1.1113 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1222.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “Triple Top” as well, which led to the current local consolidation between the 34 & 89 Moving Averages. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1120 – 1.1113. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1196.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10038

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlight possibility to have a new low
8/12/2016

We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed enough, so the price reached a support at 1.2954. Also, bears have delivered a new low. Under this circumstances, sellers are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2877 – 1.2849 as a possible bearish target. At the same time, if a pullback from this area arrives, there’ll be a chance to see a local upward correction.

There’s a consolidation in progress, so we’ve got a possible “Pennant” pattern on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2906 – 1.2875 soon. Nevertheless, if sellers be stopped on this area, bulls will have an opportunity to reach a resistance at 1.3017 – 1.3056.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10039

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [d] of 4 going to reach 3/8 MM Level
8/12/2016

There’s a possible “Triangle” in wave 4 on the four-hour chart. Yesterday wave [c] was ended on 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250), so bears are likely going to deliver wave [d] shortly. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has found a lodgement under 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). Also, we’ve got wave [c], which was ended in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards 3/8 MM Level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10040

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro supported by Kijun
8/12/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1120/30, 1.1090; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1190.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1150; SL — 1.1130; TP1 — 1.1190; TP2 – 1.1230.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10041

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the trades will continue inside a cloud
8/12/2016

Technical levels: support – 101.00, 101.50; resistance – 102.60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 102.60; SL — 102.80; TP1 — 101.50; TP2 — 101.00.

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10042

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, August 12th
8/12/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 13 229 ? + 45 219 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1208; 1.1225; 1.1246; 1.1272
Closest support levels 1.1121; 1.1106; 1.1087; 1.1063
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1121, with target points at 1.1106 and 1.1087
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1208 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1225 and 1.1246


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 645 ? + 1 188 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3055; 1.3096(74?); 1.3120; 1.3148
Closest support levels 1.2927; 1.2897; 1.2878; 1.2856
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2927, with target points at 1.2897 and 1.2878
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3055 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3096 and 1.3120


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 261 ? + 229 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.29/43; 102.59; 102.79; 103.03
Closest support levels 101.51; 101.25; 101.06; 100.83
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 101.51, with target points at 101.25 and 101.06
Alternative scenario Moving above 102.29 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.59 and 102.79


USD/CAD (Caution: Thin Market!)

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 528 ? + 768 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3026; 1.3057; 1.3098; 1.3151
Closest support levels 1.2932(15?); 1.2892; 1.2858; 1.2816
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2932, with target points at 1.2892 and 1.2858
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3026 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3057 and 1.3098
EUR JPY GBP CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10043

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Three Black Crows" points to further decline
8/12/2016

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There’s a support by the 144 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on this line, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could reverse the price movement into a downward direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” at the local high, but it haven’t got a confirmation. Therefore, bears will probably try to push the price lower in the short term.

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Three Black Crows” at the local highs. Also, there’s a strong support by the 55 Moving Average. Under this circumstances, if we see a pullback from the nearest resistance, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10044

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls found a lodgement above the “Window"
8/12/2016

The previously formed “Harami” and “Three Methods” have done a great job, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average. So, it’s likely to see a support by the nearest “Window”. If it happens, bulls are likely going to achieve 55 Moving Average shortly. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the last low, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance line, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement into a downward direction.

The price has been rising since a “Hammer” arrived at the local low. Moreover, bulls have found a lodgement above the nearest “Window”. In this case, the pair is likely going to rise until any reversal pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10045

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF rising inside minor correction
8/12/2016

CAD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2
Next buy target - 0.7600
CAD/CHF has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the second minor corrective wave 2, which stared earlier - when the pair reversed up with the daily Morning Star from the support zone lying between the support levels 0.7420 (previous sell target) and 0.7350. This support zone was strengthened by the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci correction levels of the two previous upward impulses from April and February respectively.

CAD/CHF is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7600 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) in July, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10047

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance 1.0090
8/12/2016

AUD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance 1.0090
Next sell target - 0.9900
AUD/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the powerful resistance level 1.0090 (which reversed the earlier primary impulse wave ① in December, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD chart below). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star – which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave 3.

Given the strength of the resistance level 1.0090 - AUD/CAD is expected to correct down further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9900 – from where the pair is likely to resume the upward movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10048

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016

EUR/USD held above 1.1100 (50-week MA). At the same time, the pair is still below 2016 resistance line in the 1.1260 area. Another obstacle is the declining 100-week MA at 1.1326. Daily moving averages remain horizontal hinting at the lack of big trend moves.

Euro area’s GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3%, while industrial production remained weak raising concerns about Q3 industrial performance. All in all, despite the fact that we may see EUR/USD test the mentioned resistance line, the single currency itself doesn’t have any reasons for sustainable growth versus the US dollar. The current advance pf the pair is provoked by America’s weakness. It means that we prefer selling its on attempts to get higher.

As for the European economic calendar, Monday will be a bank holiday in France and Italy, while on Tuesday Germany will release ZEW economic sentiment index. On Thursday we’ll find out the region’s current account and final consumer price index figure. The ECB will also release monetary policy meeting account.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10049

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016

GBP/USD continued slowly moving down. The pound made one attempt to recover, but it wasn’t very convincing.

It was the first week of the Bank of England’s extended bond buying program. The start wasn’t very good: British central bank failed to attract enough bond sellers to reach its purchase target. Investors agreed to sell only 1.1 billion pounds of bonds to the regulator versus the planned amount of 1.17 billion pounds despite the fact that the BOE was buying at higher price than the market. The problem is that longer-term government bonds offer higher yield and are held by British pension funds that need these securities to match their liabilities. On Tuesday, August 16, the Bank of England will have another go at meeting its QE target, and it may once again create some volatility at the market.

Next week Britain will release a block of inflation data for July on Tuesday and labor market data on Wednesday. Inflation figures will be the first major data piece after the Brexit vote. In addition, there will be a release of retail sales on Thursday and public sector net borrowing on Friday.

Technically, the pound is oversold, corrections up are likely, but only increase above 1.3150 will improve the medium-term picture. In this case further resistance will be at 1.3300. If GBP/USD slides below the recent lows, the downtrend may extend to 1.2840/00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10050

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016

USD/JPY spend the week in 102.50/101.00 range. The pair formed a slightly higher low this week. Demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven declined allowing the pair to hold ground. The overall downtrend remains in place. Weaker-than-expected US economic data on Friday represented a blow for the bulls. Decline below 101.00 will signal that the downtrend has resumed targeting 100.70 and 100.00. Resistance lies at 102.80, 103.90 and 105.00.

Japan will release Q2 preliminary GDP on Monday. Economists think that economic growth in Japan likely slowed in spring months due to weak private consumption. Also watch data from the US economic calendar while trading USD/JPY.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10051

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016

AUD/USD made two attempts to take out resistance in the 0.7755 area, but sellers didn’t allow the bulls to overcome this obstacle. However, the trend remains bullish. Above 0.7765 the next resistance will be at 0.7840 (resistance line from 2013). Support is at 0.7600.

Relatively higher yields make Australian dollar attractive for investors. As long as the market’s risk sentiment remains strong, it will be in demand. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens didn’t hint on further interest rate cuts – another supporting factor for AUD.

There’s however, one worrying spot: China’s imports fell 12.5% in US dollar terms in July. The nation’s industrial production and retail sales were also a bit weaker than expected. This creates a concerning background for Aussie, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. In Australia’s economic calendar pay attention to monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday and labor market figures on Thursday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10052