Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" points to a possible bearish correction
7/15/2016

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9623/1507usdjpyH4.png[/IG]

There’re a “Harami” and an “Engulfing” on the lower “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high, but is hasn’t been confirmed yet. If it has later on, a local correction becomes possible. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price reached the previously tested resistance level, which could bring any bearish pattern.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9623/1507usdjpyH1.png

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been already confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support on the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9623

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7600
7/15/2016

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7600
Next buy target – 0.7800
AUD/USD has been rising in the last few trading sessions – in line with our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The price today broke above the resistance level 0.7600, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for AUD/USD. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7600 is likely to further accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the sharp intermediate (C)-wave from May.

AUD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 0.7800 (which reversed the earlier wave (A) and which is the forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9624

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY rising inside minor C-wave
7/15/2016

USD/JPY rising inside minor C-wave
Next buy target - 108.00
USD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor C-wave, which belongs to the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of June. The active C-wave earlier broke through the resistance levels 103.25 (top of the previous A-wave) and 105.500 (former major support from May, which stopped the previous impulse wave ①, acting as resistance after it was broken recently). The breakout of these resistance levels intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 108.00 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction (2), intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9625

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016

The past week was mixed for the US dollar. The currency weakened versus the British pound, and commodity currencies, but strengthened against Japanese yen.

There were many positive data releases in the United States: producer prices, unemployment claims, retail sales, industrial production. The figures confirmed that the US economy isn’t in bad shape. However, traders still don’t expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates neither in July, nor later this year and it’s limiting US dollar bulls. All in all, Forex majors were driven mostly not by the American news, but by the expectations about the potential actions of other central banks. We expect this trend to continue the next week, especially as the US economic calendar will be rather lite: pay attention to building permits and housing starts on Tuesday, as well as Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and existing home sales on Thursday.

The market’s risk sentiment is an important factor for the greenback: with S&P index at the record highs the currency stayed under pressure. If stocks correct to the downside, US dollar will get a chance to recover. All in all, US dollar index keeps consolidating between 96.80 and 95.50, where it has spent already almost a month. The break of this range will shape the next big move, although we don’t see such drivers next week.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9626

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016
British pound strengthened by more than 3% during the past week. Sterling recovered because of 2 main reasons: return of political stability to the UK and the Bank of England’s decision not to ease monetary policy in July.

Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s Prime Minister. Although May was a supporter of the UK staying in the European Union, she underlined that “Brexit means Brexit” and the country will leave the EU. Still, it looks like the leaving will be a long process.

British central bank didn’t cut the benchmark interest on Thursday, although such move was already priced in GBP/USD. As a result, traders started closing massive GBP shorts pushing the currency higher. Only one member of the central bank voted for a rate cut. Governor Carney decided to wait for the post0referendum economic data, but gave a strong signal of easing next month.

Next week we may see more covering of GBP short positions, which should provide support for the pound. Note, though, that there are serious resistance levels lying ahead: 1.3500 and 1.3830. Taking into account the fact that more monetary stimulus will almost certainly come from the Bank of England in 3 weeks at the August meeting, investors will likely use the pound’s recovery to enter in new short positions. Support is at 1.3120 and 1.3000.

In British economic calendar next week pay attention to inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales and public sector net borrowing on Thursday. Only very week figures could drive sterling significantly lower.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9627

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016

During the past week EUR/USD remained within range of the 2 previous weeks. The pair got strength from higher EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY, but terror attack in Nice on Thursday together with good US statistics didn’t let the bulls to develop the move to the upside.

Euro area’s inflation figures were in line with forecasts. Headline CPI posted only the second gain in 2016 and the figures are still far below the European Central Bank’s target. Traders will look forward to more policy easing from the ECB that will meet on Thursday. However, the expectations declined after the Bank of England decided to keep policy unchanged during the past week. In addition, as the ECB’s policy is already very accommodative, new steps tend to have less and less impact on EUR/USD. So, any short positions should have conservative targets.

Other important events in the euro area’s economic calendar include Germany’s and region’s ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday and European flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Friday.

On the daily chart 50-day MA went below 100-day MA providing bearish signal. Resistance lies at 1.1160 and 1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0920.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9628

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016
British pound strengthened by more than 3% during the past week. Sterling recovered because of 2 main reasons: return of political stability to the UK and the Bank of England’s decision not to ease monetary policy in July.

Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s Prime Minister. Although May was a supporter of the UK staying in the European Union, she underlined that “Brexit means Brexit” and the country will leave the EU. Still, it looks like the leaving will be a long process.

British central bank didn’t cut the benchmark interest on Thursday, although such move was already priced in GBP/USD. As a result, traders started closing massive GBP shorts pushing the currency higher. Only one member of the central bank voted for a rate cut. Governor Carney decided to wait for the post0referendum economic data, but gave a strong signal of easing next month.

Next week we may see more covering of GBP short positions, which should provide support for the pound. Note, though, that there are serious resistance levels lying ahead: 1.3500 and 1.3830. Taking into account the fact that more monetary stimulus will almost certainly come from the Bank of England in 3 weeks at the August meeting, investors will likely use the pound’s recovery to enter in new short positions. Support is at 1.3120 and 1.3000.

In British economic calendar next week pay attention to inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales and public sector net borrowing on Thursday. Only very week figures could drive sterling significantly lower.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9627

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016
AUD/USD breached resistance at 0.7570 at the beginning of the past week and spent the rest days consolidating above this level. Australian dollar rose as the nation’s labor market data were rather well showing that employment numbers have risen in recent months. Moreover, political uncertainty in Australia finally ended as the ruling coalition managed to secure majority in the new parliament that will allow it’s to form a government. In addition, the overall market’s risk sentiment improved encouraging demand for Aussie. Data from China was especially helpful.

Technically the break above resistance line connecting April and June highs is a positive signal. Not, however, that pairs approaching resistance of the descending 200-week MA in the 0.7700 area. The recent move to the upside isn’t strongly supported by technical indicators. Good data from the United States and some expectations of the Reserve Bank pf Australia’s rate cut in August may put AUD/USD under renewed bearish pressure. The RBA will release July monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. Support is at 0.7600 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7475.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9630

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for July 18-24
7/18/2016

It was a week of a 5% correction to the upside in USD/JPY: the pair rose to 106.30 showing the biggest weekly gain since 1999. Yen weakened for 2 reasons. Firstly, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke met with Japanese authorities fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan might provide "helicopter money", which would involve the central bank directly financing government spending.

Secondly, the market’s risk sentiment improved, and demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven currency declined. Britain managed to restore political stability as Theresa May became new Prime Minister, while Chinese data eased some concerns about the nation’s economic slowdown: latest growth, industrial output and retail sales figures exceeded forecasts.

Next week there will be few economic data releases in both the US and Japan, so the fundamental picture probably won’t change much.

Above 106.60 (200-week MA, downtrend resistance line) resistance is at 107.60 (April 4 lows), 108.60 (100-day MA) ahead of 110.00 (psychological level). Support is at 103.80 and 102.70.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9629

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & MPC member's speech: Looking to resume the post-Brexit's bearish bias?
7/18/2016

Following a very volatile week for GBP/USD, we'll have today at 08:15 GMT a speech from London by MPC member Martin Weale, whom it's expected to talk about Brexit, and we'll see if he gives further hints about a rate hike or cut in August. It would be interesting to see if Weale can provide that because Cable was profoundly affected by recent positive US economic data that strengthened the US dollar, but bear in mind that the Bank of England noted about low inflation levels.

The technical scenario for the pair at H1 chart is giving a strong support located around the 1.3103 level, where we can found the 200 SMA. Above that zone, we can expect a rebound towards the 1.3317 level and a breakout above it will expose the 1.3458, which was a significant resistance during last week, and that will happen if Weale's speech is more hawkish than expected. In the dovish scenario, GBP/USD should consolidate before the 1.3103 to test the historical lows below the 1.2850 mark.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9632

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the trick of the bears
7/18/2016
EUR/USD is consolidating within 1.1000-1.1750 range on the daily chart. The bears are in control. This may be seen from the fact that the pair breached thw lower border of the medium-term uptrend and then retested it. We recommend selling the pair on its attempts to recover.

On H1 EUR/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. After that there was a correction. The pair's currently finishing to form 5-0 pattern. Recoil from 1.1079 (38.2%), 1.1095 (50%) and 1.1112 (61.8%) will provide a signal for opening short positions.

Recommendation: SELL 1,1079 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1095 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1,1112 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890

EUR

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9633

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the bulls got tired
7/18/2016

GBP/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. If the bulls fail to return above resistance at 1.3323 in the near term (23.6% Fibo of the last descending wave), the bears will be able to regain control. Trend remains bearish. It's target is at 1.26 (127.2% according to AB=CD). As long as the pair remains below 1.3323, sell pound versus the US dollar.

On H1 GBP/USD came to the lower border of the short-term bullish channel. Successful test of 1.3167 with the following return to 1.3093 will trigger the "Shark" pattern.Target is at 1.2920.

Recommendation: SELL 1,3167 SL 1,3267 TP1 1,3017 TP2 1,2920

GBP

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9634[/UIRL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" bring bears back into the market
7/18/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1168, which was strengthened by the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which brought bears into the market. Finally, sellers reached a support at 1.1015, which led to the current upward correction. Considering a local “V-Bottom” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1120. If a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see another downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears got a support at 1.1014, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance at 1.1074. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.1097 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9636

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Flag" points to a possible intraday upward movement
7/18/2016

The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849.

The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849.

There’s a support at 1.3104, which led to form a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating under between Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a possible local “Flag” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3399 during the day. Considering a probable pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3104 – 1.3015 as the next bearish target.


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9637

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro again under the cloud
7/18/2016

During Friday's session Eurodollar fell below H4 Ichimoku cloud. The bulls failed to test the upper boundary (Senkou Span B) and decided to give up the struggle. Therefore, trading is now carried under the cloud, in the negative zone.

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen cancelled the effect of the golden cross. A cloud still has a negative character. We expect the bears to become more active.

Technical levels: support - 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1080; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1030; TP2 — 1.1000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9642

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the bulls want to attack again
7/18/2016

On Friday the currency pair USD/JPY corrected into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. But the bullish sentiment doesn't leave the market. The prices reached the positive region supported by Kijun-sen and in the near future the uptrend may resume.

Note, that the golden cross is still actual and the Ichimoku cloud is expanding upward. It’s confirming the strength of the bulls.

Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 105.50; SL — 105.40; TP1 — 106.00; TP2 — 106.40.

2. Sell — 106.40; SL — 106.60; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9644

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" helped bears to get up speed
7/18/2016

[IG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9649/1807eurusdh4.png[/IMG]

The price has got a resistance on the upper “Window” and the 89 Moving Average. So, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been strongly confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on in the short term, but only when the current local correction ends. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles seem like an “Engulfing” pattern, so today’s candle is probably going to be black.

Bears have been pushing the market lower and lower. The last “Three Methods” pattern acted as a resistance for several times, so the price is likely going to test the local low once again. If we see a pullback later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the Moving Averages.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9649

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: unconfirmed “Harami” boosts bullish pressure
7/18/2016

The last bearish candles haven’t been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s unconfirmed “Harami”, which makes possible an achievement the nearest resistance line.

There’s a “Harami” at the local low, but its confirmations is a quite weak. Therefore, if the price gets a support in the 34 Moving Average, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9650

 

[riki143]

USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3)
7/18/2016

USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3)
Next buy target – 6.7450
USD/CNH continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) of the impulse 5 (which is a part of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from April). The active impulse wave (iii) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up from the upper trendline of the recently broken sharp daily up channel from April (acting as support now after it was broken).

USD/CNH is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the strong multi-month resistance level 6.7450 (top of the previous primary impulse wave ① and the forecast price for the completion of the active impulse waves 5 and (3)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9651

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & German ZEW indicator: Looking to trade below 1.1000?
7/19/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the German ZEW economic sentiment, a survey based on financial experts' assessment of Germany's economy for next six months, in terms of directions. Last reading was very positive, with a rising from 6.4 to 19.2, beating the expectations of 5.1 for June. However, July's forecast is seeing a decline to 8.2 and that could weigh on EUR against other currencies on the Forex market.

The H1 chart's view for EUR/USD is sideways, as the pair is still trading around the 200 SMA zone. A pullback can happen towards the 1.1042 level, which is very close to a bullish trend line projected from post-Brexit's low. If ZEW reading is weaker-than-expected, then we could see a decline to the support level of 1.1015. However, if July's release is better than analysts' forecast, we should see a rally beyond 1.1111 resistance zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9654