Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Large banks: sell NZD/USD
7/20/2016

Barclays: Sell Limit at 0.7182, Take Profit 0.7005, Stop Loss 0.7271

Credit Suisse: Sell Limit at 0.7140, Take Profit 0.7005, Stop Loss 0.7195

Analysts at Citigroup claim that NZD/USD may fall by 3%. The fall may be triggered by the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s economic assessment late on Thursday. Analysts at Credit Agricole, however, point out that the market has already priced in the RBNZ’s dovish comments, so the central bank needs to promise an August rate hike to maintain bearish trend in NZD/USD.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9693

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" & "Harami" highlight possibility of bullish correction
7/20/2016

The middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which led to the current decline. However, the price formed a pullback from the closest support line, which makes possible an achievement of the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed. Therefore, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. To sum up, there’s possibility to see a local upward correction, but bears are still in the game, so new lows are very likely.

There’re a “Hammer” and a “Harami” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to a local upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance level and the 34 Moving Averages line.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9695

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to climb ever higher
7/20/2016

The price has been rising since a “Hammer” formed at the last low. Also, the pair faced a support on the 144 Moving Average, which led to form a “Harami” pattern. Therefore, bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s the unconfirmed bearish “Harami”, so today’s candle will probably be a white one.

The main upward trend is still on the table, which was supported by the 13 & 34 Moving Averages. Moreover, the last bullish “Harami” has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to continue rising until any bearish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9696

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)[/B\
7/20/2016

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)
Next sell target – 0.6980
NZD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7300 (top of wave (iii) and the previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor correction (ii).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.6980 (which reversed the price twice in June) - intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9697

 

[riki143]

USD/TRY rising inside minor impulse wave 3
7/20/2016

USD/TRY rising inside minor impulse wave 3
Next buy targets - 3.0600 and 3.1000
USD/TRY has been rising in the last two weeks inside the minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from May. The active impulse wave (3) started when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 2.800 (which also previously reversed the earlier primary ABC correction ④ from September of 2015), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of 2015.

USD/TRY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 3.0600, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next strong resistance level 3.1000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9698

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)[/B\
7/20/2016

NZD/USD falling inside minor correction (ii)
Next sell target – 0.6980
NZD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7300 (top of wave (iii) and the previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor correction (ii).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.6980 (which reversed the price twice in June) - intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9697

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD before ECB's meeting: No major changes on current policy?
7/21/2016

Today at 11:45 GMT we'll know the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, which currently holds the numbers at zero. Analysts don't expect any major changes in the current economic policy's stance from the central bank, as we have been seeing the current post-Brexit developments in terms of economy. BoE didn't change their interest rates and most probably the ECB won't do it. One of the topic to be on discussion probably will be the situation on Italian banks.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still bearish and showing a consolidation below the 200 SMA. Currently, the pair is being supported by the 1.0987 level, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.0942 price zone. A dovish stance from ECB could send the pair towards the psychological level of 1.0900 approximately. In the another scenario, EUR/USD should break the 1.1041 level and that could push the pair towards the highs from July 15th.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9699

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears made a stop
7/21/2016

On the daily chart EUR/USD failed to break below support at 1.1 and formed "doji" as a result. As the high of this bar was retested, the bulls seized the initiative for a time being. The level of 1.1072 is acting as resistance. Here's 23,8% Fibo of the latest descending wave.

On H1 EUR/USD reached 161,8% target of AB=CD and resistance at 1.1038 I mentioned in the previous article. If the sellers manage to return the price to the short-term bearish channel, the risks of the downtrend resumption will increase. As long as EUR/USD is below 1,1127 (lower border of the uptrend channel, 78,6% Fibo of the latest descending wave, the market will remain bearish.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9700

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD looks for a growth driver
7/21/2016

AUD/USD tested the lower border of the short-term uptrend on the daily chart with the further recoil to the upside. If the bears find strength for another attack, and succeed, the pair may fall to convergence areas of 0.7405 and 0.7302-0.7342. The lower border of the medium-term bullish channel is nearby.

On H1 AUD/USD breached above the upper border of the current bullish channel and activated the "Shark" pattern. Its 161.8% target is at 0.7565. A bit higher is the lower border of the bullish channel. The failure at the convergence area will trigger selling.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9701

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Bears are cautious
7/21/2016

During yesterday's session the major pair of Forex updated the three-week lows. The prices dropped out to 1.0980, but the Bears are cautious, because there is a strong support on the 1.1000 figure.

The current downward trend is still valid: the Ichimoku cloud extends downward and there is a dead cross. At the end of the correction we expect the downtrends continuation.

Technical levels: support - 1.1000; resistance – 1.1050.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1050; SL — 1.1070; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9702

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: the Pound doesn’t hurry to lose its positions
7/21/2016

The Pound during yesterday's session was corrected along the bottom border of the Ichimoku cloud and rose up to 1.3270. But it met the horizontal Kijun-sen, which stopped the bullish movement. We note, in the area of 1.3300 formed a strong resistance from which possible the continuation of the downtrend.

Technical levels: support – 1.3170; resistance – 1.3300.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.3300; SL — 1.3320; TP1 — 1.3170; TP2 — 1.3060.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9703

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Aussie feels insecure
7/21/2016

The Australian dollar stayed under bearish pressure. During yesterday's session, the Bears pushed the pair to the negative area, breaking down the support of a lower border of Ichimoku cloud to the 0.7450. Note that the short-term market sentiments influenced by dead cross.

At the same time, the Chinkou Span is in the oversold zone. And the Bulls can take advantages for the correction inside a cloud.

Technical levels: support – 0.7430; resistance – 0.7500.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7500; SL — 0.7520; TP1 — 0.7430; TP2 — 0.7400.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9704

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" set up bullish correction
7/21/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0970, which led to form a reversal “V-Bottom”, so we’ve got the current upward movement. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance between the 34 Moving Average and the level at 1.1083. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current bullish price movement. Also, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up towards the closest resistance area. However, if sellers form a pullback from the trend line, then another downward movement will be on the table.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9705

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" stopped bearish rally
7/21/2016

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward movement. Also, the price found a resistance at 1.3226, but bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3336. At the same time, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015.

There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which brought bulls into the market. The price faced a resistance at 1.3273, so the we’ve got a local consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.3273 – 1.3313 in the short term. If a pullback from here arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price lower, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3015 – 1.2970 as a possible next bearish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9706

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" triggered upward correction
7/21/2016

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “Harami” on the closest “Window”, so the pair is likely going to test the middle of the last huge black candle once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, which points to a possible upward correction. However, bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards.

There’s a “Harami” on the 55 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the next 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9716

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a resistance
7/21/2016

The nearest “Window” has acted as a resistance, which led to form a bearish “Harami” pattern. Therefore, we’ve got the current downward correction. If the price faces a support on the 34 & 89 Moving Averages, bulls are likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a probable “Engulfing”, which makes possible an achievement of the closest support line.

There’s a “Harami”, which had been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. If a pullback from here happens soon, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance on the 13 & 34 Moving Averages.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9717

 

[riki143]

Major banks: forecasts for EUR ahead of the ECB

Analysts of the major banks have different stake on what decision the European Central Bank will make at today’s meeting. The ECB minimum bid rate will be announced at 11:45 GMT. Mario Draghi’s press conference will start at 12:30 GMT.

Citi: Short on the euro. The currency will make an abrupt move and then calm down. The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB, so any move lower in EUR can be enough to break ranges.

IGN: The euro has potential to decline to 1.0850 versus the US dollar in the near term. Resistance is at 1.1050/80.

BNPP: The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB. The central bank’s comments will be dovish, so the euro is unlikely to strengthen even if the ECB’s policy remains unchanged.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: There’s a slight downside risk for the euro, although a big move is not expected.

UBS: The market is expecting dovish comments from the ECB, so the risks are for the euro’s increase after the central bank’s decision.

Scotiabank: Although the ECB won’t change policy at this meeting, it could signal a policy easing in September and this should hurt the euro.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

 

[riki143]

EUR/TRY approached strong resistance level 3.4000
7/21/2016

EUR/TRY approached strong resistance level 3.4000
Next buy target – 3.4700
EUR/TRY has been rising sharply in the last few trading days inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 3.1880 (which reversed the price multiple times in March), lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse form November and the support trendline of the daily up channel from May of 2015.

EUR/TRY is currently trading close to the strong resistance level 3.4000 (top of the previous impulse wave 1). If the pair breaks above 3.4000 - EUR/TRY can then rise to the next buy target at the major resistance level 3.4700.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9719

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD rising inside minor C-wave
7/21/2016

AUD/NZD rising inside minor C-wave
Next buy target - 1.0800
AUD/NZD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of July. The active C-wave earlier broke the resistance level 1.0540 (which stopped the previous A-wave). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor C-wave – which then broke the next resistance level 1.0700 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March).

AUD/NZD is likely to rise further in the active C-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0800. Long entries can be protected with the stop-loss placed below the aforementioned price level 1.0700.

More:
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[riki143]

GOLD probably make a rebound to the area of 1343.75
7/21/2016

The rebound from the level of 4/8 (1312.50) can be completed back to the area of STD1, which still has the bullish color. Nevertheless, we should not exclude the scenario of falling to the level of 3/8 (1296.88), for which requires the break of 4/8 at least one third of the level widths. It should be noted that 4/8 was already support, so the probability of re-bounce is high. The first target can be the level of 6/8 (1343.75).

Trade recommendation:

Buy – 1318.00; sl – 1311.00; tp – 1341.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9721