Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for July 14

US dollar index rose to June highs this week, but so far hasn’t managed to overcome resistance at 97.00. The Fed’s Cleveland head Loretta Mester said that gradual rate hikes are still appropriate in the US. On Thursday America will release two key events– PPI and unemployment claims.

EUR/USD stays below the key level of 1.1100 (200-day MA). The euro is under pressure as traders expect dovishness form the European Central Bank’s meeting next week. Data from the euro area are weak: the region’s industrial production contracted by 1.2% in May. The 50-day MA went below 100-day MA – a bearish signal. Yet, the euro is still holding ground as traders don’t expect an interest rate hike in the US anytime soon. In the near term the picture looks neutral: the pair is consolidating in 1.1155/1.0970 range.

GBP/USD rose to nearly a 2-week high at 1.3336 as political uncertainty in the UK was set to decrease somewhat with Theresa May set to become prime minister on Wednesday. Note, however, that future of the relationship between the UK and the European Union is still uncertain. The market is pricing a rate cut by the Bank of England on Thursday. It will be Important how dovish the BOE Governor and how much monetary stimulus he will hint on besides the rate cut. Next resistance is at 1.3500/20, while support is at 1.3120/00.

USD/JPY recovered to 105.00. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered a new round of fiscal stimulus spending. On Tuesday Abe met with former Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke. This meeting fueled expectations that the Bank of Japan will take part in Abe’s stimulus plan and further ease its monetary policy. Above 105.00 the pair will have chance to rise to 106.00/50. Support is at 103.50.

AUD/USD breached resistance line connecting April and June highs and is trading above 0.7600. Aussie was helped by the decreased political uncertainty in Australia: Australia's ruling conservatives finally secured a parliamentary majority following a protracted election vote count. Yet, many experts still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rate in August: the higher Aussie goes, the stronger will be such expectations. Resistance is at 0.7680, support is at 0.7570.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP ahead BoE's interest rate decision post-Brexit
7/14/2016

Today will be a decisive day for current interest rates from the Bank of England, as Mark Carney hinted a few weeks ago about a possible rate cut scenario. This event is important by itself as its the first interest decision to be made by UK central bank after Brexit's referendum. Analysts expect a possible cut from 0.50% to 0.25%. By the way, during yesterday's session, Theresa May formally was named as new UK Prime Minister, after David Cameron's resignation.

The technical scenario for EUR/GBP at H1 chart, ahead the BoE's interest rate decision, is showing two interesting paths: one is calling for a continuation towards the 0.8503 level, which is above the 200 SMA and that can happen if BoE's officials decide to cut rates. The reaction may be strongly higher if the summary from monetary policy is dovish. The other path is giving a chance for a strengthening of GBP against EUR, so the pair can pullback at current stage to test the support zone of 0.8302 (near to yesterday's lows).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9588

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD is preparing for a break
7/14/2016

EUR/USD is consolidating on the daily chart. MACD is close to the zero line, EMA9 crossed EMA26, ADX<25. For now the bears are leading (–DMA>+DMI), so be ready to sellon the break of the trade channel.

On H1 EUR/USD the pair has spent most of July in the 1.1019/1.1123 range. Consolidation is confirmed by ADX (<25). Break of the uppoer border will be a reason to buy, successful test of the lower border will provide ground for selling.

Recommendation: BUY 1,1123 SL 1,1053 TP1 1,1223 TP2 1,1273; SELL 1,1019, SL 1,1089 TP1 1,0919 TP2 1,0869.

EUR

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9589

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi loosened the grip
7/14/2016

On the daily NZD/USD chart there's correction within an uptrend. MACD is showing mixed dynamics, EMA9 is partly crossing EMA26. The bulls retain control with ADX (>25) and +DMI above –DMA. In such situation prepare to trade on the resumption of the current trend.

On H1 Stochastics shows oversold condition. When the crab parrern reaches 161.8%, it will be a buy signal.

Recommendation: BUY 0,715 SL 0,708 TP1 0,725 TP2 0,732


More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9590

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" led to the local upward movement
7/14/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.1125 during the current flat. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1097 – 1.1057. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach the 89 Moving Average line.

We’ve got a flat between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.1120. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve an area between the 55 Moving Average and the level at 1.1066 in the short term. However, if a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on a resistance area at 1.1125 – 1.1145.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9591

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls
7/14/2016

The pair found a resistance on the 34 & 55 Moving Averages, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so the price finally reached a support at 1.3116. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.3015, which is near the main downtrend line. If we see a pullback from here, so we should keep an eye on the important resistance at 1.3471 – 1.3614, because bulls will probably try to close the previously formed “Breakaway Gap”.

The price was declining right after a “Triple Top” arrived at the last high. However, bears found a support on the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern here, which led to the local upward movement. Under this circumstances, sellers are likely going to test a support at 1.3045 – 1.3015 in the short term, but if a pullback from this area happens later on, there’ll be a chance to see a bullish correction in the direction of a resistance at 1.3226 – 1.3356.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9592[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Euro continues its consolidation
7/14/2016

During yesterday's session the Eurodollar has stayed above the support of 1.1060 which is formed by the Kijun-sen line. Its forced the prices to return to the lower bound of Ichimoku cloud. Today's trading takes place within the cloud, but we see the narrowing of the Tenkan-Kijun channel. This mean declining of buyers interest. Therefore we still expect a resumption of the downtrend.

Technical levels: support - 1.1060; resistance – 1.1110.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1100; SL — 1.1120; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9593

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Aussie gains a strength{/B]
7/14/2016

The Australian dollar stayed above the Tenkan-Sen on the H4-timeframe. Against the positive mood of the Ichimoku indicator (there is a bullish cloud and a golden cross), the bulls failed the uptrend resuming. The main reason for that - the market is overbought. Therefore today's trading is likely to be held inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. There is a high possibility of decreasing the prices up to the level of the Kijun-sen line.

Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7560; resistance – 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7660; TP2 — 0.7690.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9594

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: going to the new highs
7/14/2016

Yesterday's trading was a rather calm, in the consolidation to the Tenkan-Sen line. The currency pair has closely approached to the 103.90 support (which we mentioned yesterday) and has started growing again.

Ichimoku Cloud changed its character and now the situation on the market is fully bullish. But the Bulls can stopped by the 106th figure – there formed a powerful resistance.

Technical levels: support – 105.00; resistance – 106.00, 106.50.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 105.00; SL — 105.00; TP1 — 106.00; TP2 — 106.50.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9595

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reversed from resistance level 0.9530
7/14/2016

NZD/CAD reversed from resistance level 0.9530
Next sell target – 0.9200
NZD/CAD continues to fall after the price earlier revered down sharply from the major long-term resistance level 0.9530, which earlier stopped the sharp primary impulse wave ① at the end of December, as can be seen from the daily NZD/CAD chart below. The downward reversal from this resistance level stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (3) from March.

Given the strength of the resistance level 0.9530 and the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9200 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9604

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
7/14/2016

USD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.2830
USD/CAD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started earlier - when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.3120 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from February.

USD/CAD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.2830 (which stopped the previous minor (b)-wave at the start of July, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9605

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD before US CPI & Retail Sales: Can we see a weak greenback?
7/15/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the Eurozone's final CPI (y/y), which hopes to remain unchanged at 0.1%. However, at 12:30 GMT will be posted significant figures that could affect USD pairs, especially the EUR/USD, as the US CPI (0.2% vs. 0.2%) and retail sales figures (0.1% vs. 0.5%) can provide a better outlook on near-term national's economy. Retail sales can have a decline from 0.5% to 0.1%, and that could send the US Dollar to test new weekly lows.

The technical picture in EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing that a bullish trend line from June 8th low is playing as dynamic support, while the pair is consolidating above the 200 SMA. A better-than-expected US data could trigger the bears in EUR/USD, sending it below the 1.1050 price zone. However, the pair can test the resistance level of 1.1153 in coming hours.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9613

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Top" stopped bulls for a while
7/15/2016

The pair has been moving up and down in the flat’s range. Currently, bulls faced a resistance at 1.1168, which was strengthened by the 89 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1145 – 1.1032. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1168 – 1.1188.

The price found a resistance at 1.1168, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so we’ve got a local consolidation in progress. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average. However, if we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1168.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9617

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls having a rest
7/15/2016

The 55 Moving Average acted as a resistance twice. So, the price is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.3336 – 1.3226 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens later on, there’ll be a chance to have a local bullish movement.

The price faced a resistance at 1.3495, which brought a local “V-Top” pattern, so the price started to decline. Therefore, it’s likely that bears are going to get a support at 1.3356 – 1.3285. However, if a pullback from here arrives afterwards, buyers will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.3471 – 1.3614.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9618

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the Euro keeps inside the cloud
7/15/2016

During yesterday's session Eurodollar has stayed within the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The Bulls are quickly tested the strength of the upper bound of cloud and Senkou Span B had a strong resistance. Therefore the further trades were over the line Tenkan-Sen.

Note that the short-term trend have a bullish direction – there is a gold cross effect. The Bulls may once again make an attempt to break through the clouds upper boud.

Technical levels: support - 1.1110; resistance – 1.1170.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1170; SL — 1.1190; TP1 — 1.1050; TP2 — 1.1000.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9619

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Aussie tunes to throw
7/15/2016

The Australian dollar have stayed above the Tenkan-Sen on the H4-timeframe. Against the positive mood of the Ichimoku indicator (there is a bullish cloud and a golden cross), the bulls failed the uptrend resuming. The main reason for that, as we said earlier, - the market is overbought.

There is a high probability of decreasing the prices up to the level of the Kijun-sen line.

Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7690.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7660; TP2 — 0.7690.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9620

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the power of bulls
7/15/2016

On the daily USD/JPY chart the trend changed from bearish to bullish (EMA9 crossed EMA26, +DMI crossed and settled above –DMI) and there's currently a sustainable bullish trend (MACD is rising). In a situation like this the best strategy will be to buy on pullbacks down.

On H1 the signal will be Stochastics going to the oversold area with the following return to 20-80 channel. This should happen close to support at 105.75.

Recommendation: BUY 105,75 SL 105 TP1 106,75 TP2 107,25.

JPY

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9614

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD keeps rising
7/15/2016

AUD/USD is having a bullish trend on the daily chart. EMA9 is above EMA26, while +DMI is higher than –DMI, MACD is rising, and further growth will make ADX come from the area below 25. In such situations buy on the pullbacks down.

On H1 Stochastics going to the oversold area and then returning to 20-80 zone will be a signal to form long positions. We assume that it will be in 0.7611.

Recommendation: BUY 0,7611 SL 0,7561 TP1 0,7711 TP2 0,7761

AUD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9615

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the correction of prices to be expected
7/15/2016

As we expected, yesterday's trades keeps in a strictly bullish mode. The market has updated a 3W-high, growing up to 106th figure. The Bulls are supported by gold cross and the positive character of the cloud.

By the evening the prices has corrected to the Tenkan-sen, but the bullish mood does not leave the traders. And note – there is the strong overbought market. Therefore pay attention to the level of 106.40, which may start deeper correction.

Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 106.40; SL — 106.60; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9621

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a resistan
7/15/2016

The price has been rising inside the “Window” and reached its upper side. Because of we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “High Wave” at the local low, which has been confirmed. Moreover, there’s a possible “Three White Soldiers” pattern, which hasn’t been finished yet. On the other hand, the nearest resistance line could bring a bearish pattern. If so, a downward movement becomes possible.

Bulls found a lodgement above the 144 Moving Average. However, there’s a bearish “Shooting Star”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test nearest support line during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, buyers will probably try to deliver a new high shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9622