Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: April 1, 2016

The EUR/USD posted its highest rates in five months, a strong end to cap the first quarter of the year. Gaining more than 4.75 percent during the first three months, this is also Euro’s best quarter against the dollar in almost five years.

The pair is now trading at 1.1381 in a range between 1.1310 and 1.1412. The Euro is trying to break into the 1.14 level as traders wait for the upcoming economic data from the US side.

The US will release data on nonfarm payrolls later today. About 210,000 are expected to be added to the already strong labor market, but should it reveal more than the expected amount, the dollar may recover its losses since Tuesday.

It is also possible for the nonfarm payrolls to not pull the dollars up as

(The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.9% following a series of increases in labor force participation.)

Fears on Britain’s exit in the EU and a high inflation rate buoyed the Euro against bearish greenbacks.

The Eurostat revealed yesterday that March’s inflation rate dropped by 0.1 percent from a -0.2 percent in February, far from the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target inflation.

Meanwhile, core inflation (which strips off the most volatile industry such as food, and energy) increased to 1.0 percent from last month’s 0.8 percent, the highest in six months. However, the core inflation’s rise is only attributed to businesses’ seasonal price hike for the Easter holiday and not necessarily to the whole month.

Earlier in March, the ECB cut interest rates to the red, and if needed, they will do more in the future, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 1, 2016

The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s policy meeting in April comes nearer.

The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.

Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.

The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 5, 2016

In the midst of the Construction Sector increase, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK in Q4 was re-assessed upwards. The business activity index occurs at 54.2 contrary to the reported 54.0 which is more than expected. The increase of the pair was finite due to fears about Brexit and the market could not disregard the probable demand on the oil market. The activity of the GBP/USD pair was merely influenced by the oil price.

The first support of price occurs at 1.4240 and at 1.4160 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4320 and at 1.4400 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is revising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 6, 2016

After months of rally, the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.

Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.

During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”

Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.

Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.

After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.

The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 7, 2016

Initially, the main drivers for the pound/dollar pair firstly, is an escape from risks, second is decline in oil prices and lastly is the poor Service PMI in the country. In March the index increase to 53.7 from 52.7 when the market was expecting an increase to 54,0. Apparently, the descending movement was also in the Bonds Market which made the 10-year UK government bonds yield to diminish. The Sterling grew by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a descending movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is rectifying.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: April 8, 2016

A poor Industrial Production forecast was presented to the market wherein the index missed 0.5% while the report was 1.8%. Yellen's statement about the external risks and the decelerating rate hike were implied in the issued Fed minutes. The market was hoping for the Fed to lower their rate hike in September wherein they expected for 46.5%. There is also presumptions and the market gives 50% that the rate hike will take place in November and 52.5% that it will happen in December.

The main occurrence of Thursday were the declaration of the ECB minutes and Mario Draghi's statement. The Initial Jobless Claims was 267,000 while the report was 270,000. However, the Consumer Credit Change was $17,22B while the report was 14.74B.

The House Prices forecast for March was issued by the UK wherein the housing prices grew by 10.1%. However, the economists expected that the inflation rate would slow down a bit to 9.5%. In monthly terms, the housing prices increased by 2.6%. Nevertheless, analysts expected the prices to increase only by 0.7%.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 11, 2016

The UK investors were perturbed by the poor macroeconomic data. Because of the seasonal correction which came at 1.1%, The Manufacturing Production for February decreased wherein it was way farther than the reported 0.2%. Moreover, from 12.16 billion pounds in January to 11.96 billion pounds in February, the Britain Trade Balance Deficit lessened.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 11, 2016

The Euro recorded a yearly high of 1.1453 on Sunday after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that the board is leaning to another rate cut. The pair is now trading within a range of 1.1395 and 1.1427.

The exchange rate is hovering just above 1.14 level at 1.1411.

The central bank has slashed interest rates to -0.4 percent in early March as it struggles with a negative inflation rate of -0.1 percent, a far cry from the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

During his speech on Thursday, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that they are willing to do “whatever is needed” to lift inflation which is not expected to hit the target until 2018. The central bank will hold a policy meeting on April 21.

Meanwhile, the USD is still weak after Fed implied that a rate increase is unlikely in the upcoming policy meeting. Fed Dallas’ president Robert Kaplan will participate in a question-and-answer session later today and we are waiting for hints of the bank rate’s possible future.

This week is packed with many entities publishing economic reports. US retail sales will be revealed on Wednesday and the consumer price index of the US and Eurozone will be published on Thursday.

Germany, France, and Spain will also release data after data later this week.

The first support is at 1.1373 and 1.1316 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 1.1444 and 1.1501 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 11, 2016

We see a weakening Australian dollar against the USD as recently released data proved that the first quarter has been sluggish despite the overvalued currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the soft currency as board members have been saying that they prefer a lower exchange, although they did not cut interest rates in the latest policy meeting.

Australia’s home loans released on Monday showed a 1.5 percent rise against a 4.4 percent drop in February, failing to reach the 2.0 percent projection.

China, Australia’s largest partner in trade, also helped AUD’s price decline with an unchanged year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3 percent in March, missing a forecasted 2.5 percent. Wholesale prices contracted for the 49th consecutive month by 0.4 percent.

Investors will have a lot to look forward to as Australia’s consumer sentiment index will be published on Tuesday and data on the country’s labor market will be released on Wednesday. RBA’s first financial stability review will come on Thursday.

The AUD is trading 0.7535 against the USD. The first support occurred at 0.7527 and 0.7489 subsequently. The first resistance occurred at 0.7608 and 0.7649 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 12, 2016

The Aussie dollar rallied from a slight dip during earlier session and is now at 0.7617 against the US dollar. The improvement was due to the National Australia Bank’s solid business confidence report.

NAB revealed that the business confidence index grew to +6 in March from February's +3. According to survey results of more than 400 companies, business conditions increased to +12, the country’s best since 2008.

The services industry was the strongest, followed by manufacturing, construction, and transport. The mining sector was still the weakest.

Meanwhile, the USD still failed to recover after Fed’s decision to take a more cautious approach in tightening monetary policy.

AUD is now testing 0.77 levels. The upcoming release of Australia’s unemployment rate this week and China’s dataflow is expected to sway investor sentiment next.

The first support is at 0.7562 and 0.7524 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7666 and 0.7704 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 12, 2016

The NZD/USD extended gains to an intraday high of 0.6885 assisted by a soft USD and a pickup in global commodity prices.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed that the number of houses sold in March saw an 8.2 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the record set in March 2007. Property prices also grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been keeping a watchful eye on the real estate market amidst worries that lenders will be in trouble once the gains subside.

Apart from this, the bird is on a quiet flight until the release of the Food Price Index later today which will give a hint on the inflation rate.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 13, 2016

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment slid in April for the second consecutive month to 95.1 percent from March’s 99.1 percent. A level below 100 shows that pessimists outnumber the optimists for the short-term and long-term outlooks.

The consumers’ bias toward economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years were reduced by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Family finances compared to one year ago dropped by 3.8 percent, while family finances over the next 12 months waned by 6.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index softened by 1.8 percent, which means that consumer confidence on low unemployment rate is high.

The disappointing and a bit surprising figures squashed hopes that the public’s confidence will follow a considerably optimistic trend because of the previous four consecutive releases above 100.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that consumers are probably seeing the strong Australian dollar as detrimental for future growth. The media and RBA officials have openly said that the AUD may be overvalued.

The low consumer sentiment is offset by China’s hefty trade data which sent the AUD to bullish territory. After a 25.4 percent fall in March 2015, Chinese exports grew by an immense 11.5 percent, surpassing the forecasted 2.5 percent by leaps and bounds. However, it is important to note that the measured period included the Lunar New Year, a considerably lavish celebration by the Chinese.

Chinese imports contracted by 7.6 percent, positively missing the projected 10.2 percent decrease. This leaves the country’s trade balance at $29.86 billion, slimmer than the estimated $34.95 billion.

Mixed statements from Fed officials on Tuesday injected volatility into the US currency as Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that he is backing rate hikes this year due to inflation’s fast pace. Meanwhile, Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that an interest rate in April does not bode well for the weak economic growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percent, the third consecutive cuts it made since July last year. IMF estimated the US economy to grow by only 2.4 percent this year, lower than January’s 2.6 percent projection.

The AUD has broken into 77 cents in earlier session, but is now back to 0.7670.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 13, 2016

The Euro was clipped during Wednesday’s session after the International Monetary Fund commented, for the first time, about the enormous damage of the United Kingdom’s possible exit from the European Union.

Trading at a narrow range of 1.1342 to 1.1393, the Euro continues to drop against a slightly stronger USD which was lifted by higher crude oil prices. The US will release its retail sales and crude oil data later today.

The first support is at 1.1306 and 1.1249 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1426 and 1.1483 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position and the price is decreasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 14, 2016

There were two reasons which caused the yen to put under pressure. Firstly, it was because it cannot withstand the development of Nikkei and the last thing is, its fall is an aftermath of the statement of Japanese Ministry which regards to the probable action launching that is intended to restrict the inflation of the national currency.

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016

Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2016

The risk assets may be affected by the outcome of the summit in Doha, and beforehand, the volatility of the market already reduced. Moreover, the US currency had gone under pressure which is the aftermath of the Fed statements and the poor inflation data from the US. Dennis Lockhart, Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta, stated that he would not go for a rate hike in April as he supports a careful approach to the monetary policy tightening because of low consumer spending. The market volatility heightened by the end of the trades.

The US issued the Industrial Production volume for March. The index occur at the level of -0,6% m/m wherein the recent value was -0.50% m/m while the report was -0.60% m/m and the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April. The index have shown 89.7 wherein the previous value was 91.0 while the report was 92.3.

There was no important impact on EUR/USD the inflation data of the Euro area wherein the index came in the zero value after decreasing by 0.1% y/y. The Euro zone issued the Trade Balance for February wherein the index displayed 19.0 billion euro and the recent value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The Bank of England let the rate remained at the level of 0,5% and the Bank pointed to the risks relative to the Brexit. The pound stayed appeased to the regulator's speech. The GBP/USD pair aggressively grew by the end of the trades.

The investors were upset by the poor US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports. The US and Japanese government bond yields reduced which caused the US assets to lessen its charm. The USD/JPY pair diminished by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 18, 2016

The bird reached a high of 0.6939 in early trading after the Statistics New Zealand released the consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of the year on Sunday.

The CPI was on the upside at an increase of 0.2 percent as it surpassed analysts’ forecast of 0.1 percent, recovering from 0.5 percent fall in the last quarter of 2015. The index grew by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, which only rose by 0.1 percent.

Cigarettes and tobacco had the biggest contribution as prices surged by 9.4 percent, while oil prices dropped by 7.7 percent. The upbeat CPI will most likely relieve some pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to not rush the next rate cut in April.

Although the kiwi dollar has recovered its losses during the weekend, its gains against the USD are still inconsistent as we saw it hit an intraday low of 0.6883. The pair is now trading at a wide range of 0.6849 to 0.6940.

The first support is at 0.6881 and 0.6847 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6968 and 0.7003. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016

In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 20, 2016

The probability of a rate hike was lessened by the Bank of England which may cause the pound to stay unstable. The English regulator dwelt the risks for the country economy when Brexit takes place amidst decision-making regarding the interest rates last week. Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that the effect of Brexit would not be sustainable and it would cause a financing of the payment balance more pricey.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.