Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 10, 2016

The AUD/USD has now settled at the 0.73 handle as data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, did little to boost the Australian dollar’s value against the greenback. The AUD bottomed at 0.7299 today and peaked at 0.7351.

The impact of China’s bearish consumer prices, which grew by 2.3 percent in April from the same period last year, was lukewarm. Markets were expecting a 2.4 percent rise. Its PPI fell by 3.4 percent, not as much as the forecasted 3.8 percent decline. Exports and imports, which stood at -1.8 percent and -10.9 percent y/y respectively, were also on the red.

Buying interest on the USD firmed slightly due to an increase in wages, which was up 0.3 percent m/m in April and 2.5 percent y/y. Only 160,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls opposed to a projected 202,000 additional positions.

The spot exchange is now at 0.7339 and the price is rising. However, we are yet to see the AUD breach 0.74 today.

The immediate support is at 0.7272 and 0.7236 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7364 and 0.7397 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative location.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2016

Tuesday, the dynamics of the market was enliven with the help of the calendar of economic events. Job Openings was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 5.757 million contrary to the report of 5.431 million.

The euro currency heightened a little in opposition with the dollar. The euro zone has made a report about Industrial Production in Germany for March which the data dropped low more than what was expected wherein it came at -1,3% contrary with the expectations of -0,2%. Meanwhile, exports displayed a fast growth showing 1,9% against expectations -0,1%.

The Trade Balance which has sustained the pound was showed by the United Kingdom. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney apprised the commercial banks and other financial institutions regarding a probable rate cut if ever the UK departs from the European Union.

The fall of the yen currency is an aftermath of the statement of the Minister of Finance on Monday. If it happens that the yen continues to grow, the regulator is ready to intercede, as stated by the ASO. The Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara stated that after the rally of the yen in the past week, he is nearly observing the financial markets.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 12, 2016

Yesterday, in opposition with the US dollar, the major pairs has been rectified. We haven't heard EU stating significant data and the market's volatility was weak. The market was not affected by the British data through the main cross-pair EUR/GBP and most of the trades were unperturbed and smooth.

The scarcity of drivers helped the UK market to stay still. But the forthcoming referendum can probably become one of the drivers in the future. As stated by Michael Sanders, Bank of England Monetary Committee representative, if Britain favors the exit from EU, the Central Bank will be obliged to heighten the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, because the exit out of the EU union will facilitate the slump of the pound and will probably strengthen the inflation.

Due to the profits taken by the investors, the dollar slumped in opposition with the yen on Wednesday. It was an aftermath of the recent rally gaining a two-week highs and the Japanese speech regarding its preparation for an intercession. Yet, Japan were expected by many investors to refrain from doing any activity to enfeeble the yen before the G7 meeting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 12, 2016

The increase of risk appetite caused a positive effect on investor's sentiment. As a funding currency, the yen were pressured by the optimism showed by the leading stock exchanges. However, the US and Japanese government bonds yield differential had been decreasing for many consecutive trading days. The dollar/yen pair decreased by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 13, 2016

The sturdiness of the world economy was left vague even though the dollar was sustained by the restored risk appetite. The Initial Jobless Claims volume was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 294,000 contrary with the expected 270,000. The political event of the day were the statements which came from Rosengren E. and Mester L, the Fed representatives. Mester stated that the risks which relative with the Fed reports should not affect the monetary policy management. While Rosengren proposed that the risks of leaving the rates unmodified seem too inferior for a long term of time.

The Germany issued the Wholesale Price Index wherein the data came in at 0,3% m/m in opposition with the expected 0,2% m/m while the Eurozone issued Industrial Production wherein the data came in at -0.8% m/m contrary with the expected 0.1% m/m.

The significant event of the day was the Bank of England meeting. The rate was remained unmodified by the regulator at 0.5%. At the same time, the inflation report of the Central Bank became the center of attraction. We hope that the growth in assessment of the inflation in the present year could help the pound to rise and counterbalance concerns about the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks anticipates the inflation to restore at 0.2%.

In the midst of short positions closing, the dollar still managed to increased in opposition to yen. However, the US currency was still under pressure caused by the vagueness of probable increase in the global market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016

The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 16, 2016

The Service Sector activity in Japan has reduced more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index seasonally corrected displayed -0,7% contrary with -0,1% in the recent month. The experts anticipated a decrease to -0,2%.

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen displays an ascending movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2016

Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected. But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.

The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.

Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.

The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 17, 2016

We have not heard any significant news last Monday. Since it was the Day of the Holy Spirit, most of the European markets were closed to celebrate the event. Meanwhile, in the Bonds Market, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased which also lessen the charm of the European assets.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 18, 2016

We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended.

As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.

Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 18, 2016

Bonds Market. The 10-year UK government bonds yield decreased which lessen the investments of the British assets. The UK presented Consumer Price index for April wherein the data came in at 0,3% y/y against the report of 0,5% y/y.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 19, 2016

As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 19, 2016

The primary Gross Domestic Product of the Japanese for Q1 stabilized as the data came in at +0,4% against the report 0,1%. On a yearly basis, the GDP has increased by 1,7% during the first quarter. In the midst of the upgraded data in Japan and the United states, the expectation that the Bank of Japan will weaken the monetary policy even more has been diminished.

The first support occurs at 109.80 and at 109.00 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 110.60 and at 111.40 subsequently.

An inveterate and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 20, 2016

Bonds Market. The interest in the European assets lessened due to the decline in the 10-year German government bonds yield. Protocols were presented by the ECB. The euro could not be sustained by the issued ECB minutes.

The primary support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1040 subsequently. While the primary resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: May 20, 2016

Though the macroeconomic calendar was empty, the investors of Switzerland put their interest to the United States' data. The USA presented the Initial Jobless Claims report wherein the data showed 278,000 against the expected 275,000 and also the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey wherein -1.8 againts the report 3.5.

The primary support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The primary resistance stands at 0.9940 and at 1.0020 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid buy signal. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen creates an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 23, 2016

The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.

After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.

On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.

The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 23, 2016

Fed’s hawkish sentiment evident in its FOMC meeting minutes released last week fairly strengthened the dollar against other currencies even the reasonably strong NZD. We can see that the buying interest in the NZD/USD will stay in the near term.

The pair is trading at 0.6797 in Wellington. Volatility is expected on Thursday as the New Zealand government announces the annual budget which include a possible revised inflation forecast. Data released last week showed that inflation was at 1.6 percent.

The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6594 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 24, 2016

A slew of hawkish statements from Fed officials weighed in on the EUR/USD, paired with the Germany’s disappointing manufacturing PMI.

Philadelphia Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a June rate hike is “appropriate” given the US’ strong economic data. An increase will also allow Fed enough space to lower it should financial instability hit the country. The two officials said that more rate hike is possible next year if favorable US data continue.

Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, reported a lower slower manufacturing PMI growth. The latest release grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, similar to the previous month’s 1.3 percent. Economists forecasted a 1.6 percent rise. The pair is now trading at 1.1185, topping at 1.1706 in earlier session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 25, 2016

NZD/USD is receiving downward pressure from rosy US data, shrouding a similarly upbeat trade data from the kiwi dollar.

New Zealand’s trade balance in April amounted to $292 million from the previous month’s $117 million, beating the forecast $60 million by leaps. This is due to exports of $4.30 billion, a 10 million increase from March’s $4.20 billion, while imports were down to $4.01 billion from $4.09 billion.

Home sales in the US is the highest in eight years, with 619,000 more houses sold from the previous month’s 531,000. Only 523,000 were expected in April. This is a 16.6 percent growth from a decline of -1.3 percent in March.

Increasing talks about a Fed rate hike in June is also boosting the buying interest around the USD, sending the bears toward the bird. As the market digests Fed officials’ hawkish statements on Monday, a bearish outlook on the NZD will remain.

The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6576 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054. The spot exchange is currently 0.6754.

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 25, 2016

The Bonds market visualized an increasing optimism as the 10-years German government bonds yield increased which also heightened the charm of the European assets. The center of the attraction was the Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute). The index aggressively decreased which weakened the euro wherein the data came in at 6.4 against the expected 12.0.

The first support occurs at 1.1130 and at 1.1070 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1200 and at 1.1250 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.