Daily market analysis by NordFX

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 9-13 February 2015 ​

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

- the EUR/USD pair can expect fluctuations around the level of 1.1325 this week while at the beginning of the week it may fall to 1.1185-1.1200, then rise and move to 1.1550;

- a similar scenario is possible for GBP/USD. The pair will be aiming to secure itself around 1.5200 but at the start of the week a short-term fall to 1.5015 is not excluded, with a subsequent rise and transition to the range of 1.5200-1.5400;

- USD/JPY is very likely to reach 119.00 and advance towards the next target of 120.00, to be followed by a pullback to the support level of 117.00;

-the USD/CHF pair is predicted to continue its sideways trend, with prevailing bullish tendencies and a desire to win back its Black Thursday losses. The closest target is 0.9400.

Regarding last week’s forecast:
- EUR/USD almost fully met our expectations. To recap, the opinions of the analysts were evenly split 3 ways: a third was for a rise, a third – for a fall and a third – for a sideways trend. The EUR/USD chart actually shows that all week long the pair was either up or down, finishing at the level where it had started;

- at the start of the week, GBP/USD began to succumb to the predicted bearish pressure but then the strengthened bulls launched the pair way up, which resulted in GBP/USD breaking through the key level of this year – 1.5200;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was confirmed 100% – first, the pair was in a sideways trend and then surged upwards on Friday. As a result, on the news from the USA, the pair reached the coveted mark of 119.00;

-there were no surprises with the USD/CHF pair either. As predicted, it got to the level of last September and then took a break by going into a sideways trend.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Oil Prices Rise Due to OPEC Reports

On Monday the world’s financial markets closed with a decline. In Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.24 percent to 6,837.15 points, the French CAC 40 shed 0.85 percent down to 4,651.08 points, and the German DAX dropped 1.69 percent down to 10,663.51 points. The reason was the Greek government’s refusal to accept further bailout loans.

In Russia, the MICEX index fell 0.39 percent down to 1,748.55 points whereas the RTS index grew 1.7 percent up to 840.48 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.53 percent to 17,729.21 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.43 percent getting to 2,046.72 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.39 percent down to 4,726.01 points.

The NYMEX price of March futures for WTI oil rose by $1.17 and made $52.86 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for March went up by $0.54 and reached $58.34 a barrel. The rise of oil prices continued due to OPEC reports. The organization of oil producers revised its oil demand forecast for 2015. According to the released data, OPEC expects demand to go up by 1.17 million barrels a day (making it 92.32 million barrels a day) instead of a 1.15 million barrels as was set earlier.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is holding within the same range.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

EUR/USD Needs a New Impetus

Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results – there was a rise in Europe and the USA whereas Russia’s equity market experienced another fall making after oil prices.

On Tuesday, European stock indices went up due to the announcement by EU Commission spokeswoman Mina Andreeva that the European Commission was working on a plan to help Greece stay within the eurozone. Towards this end, Greece would most likely be offered a 6-month extension to pay its debts. Besides, the Eurogroup is to hold an emergency meeting today where it’s expected to hear out Greece’s bridge deal proposal to get more financing for the country.

These events led to the British FTSE 100 falling 0.12 percent down 6,829.12 points, the French CAC 40 growing 0.96 percent up to 4,695.65 points and the German DAX advancing 0.85 percent up to 10,753.83 points.

Against this very background, the US equity market was up – the Dow Jones grew 0.79 percent to 17,868.76 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.07 percent getting to 2,068.59 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 1.3 percent up to 4,787.64 points.

Russia’s stock market posted a drop following falling oil prices. As such, the MICEX index finished the trading session with a 0.35% decline to 1,742.35 points, and the RTS index lost 1.74 percent reaching 825.89 points.

On the MYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for March went down by $2.84 and made $50.02 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future for March delivery dropped by $1.91 and closed at $56.43 a barrel.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD hasn’t displayed much movement at all for two days in a row. Players are waiting for the news that could shed some more light on the macroeconomic situation in the euro region.


Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Eager for News

Yesterday world financial markets closed mainly with a slight fall in expectation of the results of the eurozone finance ministers regarding the situation in Greece. In Europe as such, the British FTSE 100 shed 0.16 percent down to 6,818.17 points, the French CAC 40 dropped 0.35 percent down to 4,679.38 points, and the German DAX was down by 0.02 percent closing at 10,752.11 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index advanced 1.22 percent up to 1,763.60 points, and the RTS index grew 0.78 percent up to 832.33 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent down to 17,861.95 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.01 percent down to 2,068.44 points while the NASDAQ grew 0.28 percent up to 4,801.18 points.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil for March went down by $1.18 and made $48.84 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for March dropped by $1.77 and reached $54.66 a barrel.

On the Forex market, there are no new developments with EUR/USD – it’s at a standstill as before.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Four Leaders Made Markets Rise

Yesterday world financial markets closed on the rise due to a peace deal reached by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in Minsk. The four heads of state agreed on a ceasefire in the east of Ukraine starting form 15 February.

In this light, in Europe the British FTSE 100 grew 0.15 percent up to 6,828.11 points, and the German DAX advanced 1.56 percent finishing the trading session at 10,919.56 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index grew 2.22 percent up to 1,802.80 points while the RTS index shot up by 3.56 percent and closed at 861.93 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones added 0.62 percent reaching 17,972.38 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.96 percent to 2,088.48 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 1.18 percent up to 4,857.61 points.

The NYMEX cost of WTI oil for March rose by $2.37 and made $51.21 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for March went up by $2.46 and reached $57.12 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is also going up in response to the news about the peace agreement for Ukraine. The pair’s target may once again be 1.1550.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16-20 February 2015​

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies plus forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, I’d like to point out that green and black colors prevail in the table this week. This means that all the pairs are expected to be in a sideways trend with an aspiration to move upwards:

- EUR/USD is very likely to carry on with its drive to reach the 1.1550 mark. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that in the first couple of days the pair will go down to 1.1340, bounce off it and then move upwards;

- the GBP/USD pair can be expected to fall to the level of 1.5300-1.5340 and then rebound to 1.5550;

- the USD/JPY pair’s strong support is118.40. After bouncing off it, the pair may charge up to around 121.00. However, this may not happen immediately but only in the last ten days of February;

- the forecast for USD/CHF remains as before – a further sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies, the nearest target being 0.9400. Bear mind though that in the medium term the pair may break through support at the level of 0.9200 and sharply go down to around 0.9000 where it was at the end of January.

Last week’s forecast was confirmed almost 100%:
- it was predicted that EUR/USD would be in a sideways trend with fluctuations around 1.1325, followed by a rise and a move towards 1.1550. The pair did just that – it finished the sideways trend on Friday and shot upwards. However, the level that the pair reached turned out to be a bit more modest – 1.1443;

- a similar scenario was suggested for the GBP/USD pair. The forecast was fully confirmed, and by the end of the week, the pair reached the target at the level of 1.5400;

- the USD/JPY pair also fully complied with our predictions. It got to 120.00 by the middle of the week and rolled down by 200 points;

- no surprises with the USD/CHF pair either – as predicted, it was in a sideways trend all week long, with prevailing bullish tendencies under whose influence the pair regained 100 points.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Down Due to Negative Political Events

Yesterday world financial markets closed with a decline despite a slight rise in oil prices. In Europe, all eyes were on the Eurogroup’s meeting about the situation in Greece. At the previous meeting 11 February, the Eurogroup wasn’t able to make any conclusive decisions.

As a result of Monday’s trading, indices closed in the red zone – the British FTSE 100 fell 0.24 percent down to 6,857.05 points, the French CAC 40 shed 0.16 percent down to 4,751.95 points, and the German DAX dropped 0.37 percent down to 10,923.23 points.

On the Russian equity market, the mood was also downbeat due to the conflict in Ukraine and noncompliance with the Minsk agreement from 12 February. On top of that, the European Union expanded its sanctions list. Trading resulted in the MICEX index falling 2.04 percent down to 1,800.59 points and the RTS index – 1.83 percent down to 897.35 points.

On London’s ICE, the price of the Brent oil future for April went down by $0.12 and reached $61.40 a barrel. US exchanges were closed yesterday as the country celebrated Presidents’ Day.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD is still holding within the same correction range.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

All Eyes on Greece Again

Yesterday world financial markets closed mainly with a drop. With that, in Europe the British FTSE 100 fell 0.07 percent to 6,893.44 points, the French CAC 40 grew 0.62 percent up to 4,828.95 points, and the German DAX 30 gained 0.34 percent going up to 10,997.72 points. Yesterday in Brussels, Greece submitted a request for a six-month extension to its loan agreement. However, the spokesman for German Finance Minister W. Schaeuble said that Greece might just try to buy time and wouldn’t follow through with the demands of the program. The Eurogroup will discuss this issue again today.

There was a steady negative trend on the Russian equity market due to falling oil prices. The MICEX index declined by 0.65 percent reaching 1,797.87 points while the RTS index plunged 2.46 percent down to 906.51 points. Investors reacted to a continuing drop in the price of oil as well as to the news about ceasefire violations in Ukraine.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.24 percent down to 17,985.77 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.11 percent down to 2,097.45 points whereas the NASDAQ grew 0.37 percent up to 4,924.70 points.

Oil prices went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for March dropped by $0.98 and made $51.16 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for April went down by $0.32 and reached $60.21 a barrel.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD is experiencing a further correction. The pair is traded within a very narrow range. It may break out of the range after the Eurogroup makes a decision regarding the Greek predicament.


Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 23-27 February 2015 ​

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be noted that this week major changes in the levels are not expected for any of the pairs and that all of them will be prone to sideways movements. However, here are some more specific trends:
- EUR/USD is likely to continue to move towards 1.1550 and even to 1.1600 but most probably will be able get there only in early March. The main level of support for the pair will be 1.1265, from which it will push off;

- the forecast for GBP/USD is a sideways movement in the range of 1.5340-1.5500. It’s noteworthy that indicators provide different readings here – some show a steady rise of the pair and others allow for its sharp fall to 1.5200 at the start of the week, followed by a rebound to 1.5400;

- the strong level of support for USD/JPY will still be around 118.15-118.40, and the pair will carry on with its upward tendency. However, this week the target will be quite modest – 120.50;

- the forecast for USD/CHF remains the same for a third week running – a further sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and the nearest target at 0.9555. However, it’s not excluded that after breaking through the support level of 0.9200, the pair will rapidly fall to around 0.9000 where it was a month ago.

Last week's forecast was fulfilled if not 100%, then around 90% for sure. We had predicted a sideways trend with striving upwards for all four pairs:
- as forecast, the EUR/USD pair fell just below the level of 1.1340 on Monday, bounced off it and rushed up to the desired heights. It didn’t reach the set target of 1.1550, though, and unable to pass the 1.1450 mark, it returned to the support level of 1.1340. The pair experienced such fluctuations several times and finished Friday at the level of the start of the week;

- the GBP/USD pair behaved in exactly the same way. At first, according to our forecast, it plunged to 1.5340, then reached the upper levels of the sideways corridor and returned to Monday’s levels;

- the USD/JPY pair was also really predictable, bouncing off the level of 118.40 and staying in its sideways trend. As expected, the assault of the level of 121.00 was postponed till later;

- USD/CHF was predicted to have a sideways trend with a smooth rise to 0.9400. However, the bears turned out to be slightly stronger than expected, and the pair got to 0.9530 step by step. However, it reversed (to stay true to our predictions) and quickly fell to 0.9400 Friday evening, thanks to Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ contribution among other things.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Mixed Start of the Week

On Monday, world financial markets posted mixed results while Russia’s markets were closed down for Defender of the Fatherland Day.

European indices were up due to good news about Greece. The European Commission extended the Greece’s bailout program for another four months. Today Greece is to send its list of reforms to the EC as well as report on the carried out crisis measures in the country.

As a result, the British FTSE 100 gained 0.04 percent getting to 6,918.24 points, the French CAC 40 grew 0.65 percent up to 4,862.30 points, and the German DAX 30 advanced 0.73 percent up to 11,130.92 points.

In the USA, equity mostly went down due to negative data for existing home sales. According to the released report, this January sales dropped by 4.9% (down to 4.82 million) in comparison with last December, which is the lowest in 9 months. Trading resulted in the Dow Jones falling 0.13 percent down to 18,116.84 points, the S&P 500 shedding 0.03 percent down to 2,109.66 points but the NASDAQ growing 0.1 percent up to 4,960.97 points.

Oil prices fell again. The NYMEX price of WTI futures for April went down by $1.36 and made $49.45 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for April delivery dropped by $1.32 and reached $58.90 a barrel.

On the Forex market, there are no new developments with EUR/USD – the pair displays very little movement.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

EUR/USD at a Standstill

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed again. European markets reacted positively to the news that the Eurogroup approved Greece’s reform plans. Thus, the German DAX grew 0.67 percent to 11,205.74 points, the French CAC 40 gained 0.5 percent getting to 4,886.44 points, and the British FTSE 100 advanced 0.54 percent up to 6,949.63 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index fell 1.15 percent down to 1,772.16 points, and the RTS index dropped 2.39 percent down to 888.69 points.

US indices were up to the comments by Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen that the regulator wasn’t going to raise the key interest rate before this June.

Yesterday oil prices closed with a slight drop. On the NYMEX, WTI oil futures for April went down by $0.17 and made $49.28 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future for April shed $0.24 and got down to $58.66 a barrel.

On the Forex market, the situation with EUR/USD remains unchanged.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

EUR/USD on the Decline

Yesterday world financial markets posted mixed results again. In Europe as such, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.21 percent up to 6,949.73 points, the German DAX advanced 1.04 percent up to 11,327.19 points, and the French CAC 40 gained 0.58 percent getting to 4,910.62 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index grew 0.83 percent up to 1,760.66 points, and the RTS index shot up by 3.18 percent reaching 911.98 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones shed 0.06 percent going down to 18,214.42 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.15 percent down to 2,110.74 points whereas the NASDAQ advanced 0.42 percent up to 4,987.89 points.

On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for April dropped by $2.82 and made $48.17 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for April delivery went down by $1.58 and reached $60.05 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD experienced a sharp fall. Nevertheless, it’s too early to speak about a downward tendency.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 March 2015​

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be noted that this week, just like last week, the sideways trend will be dominating for all four pairs:

- the corridor of 1.1170-1.1310 is most probable for the EUR/USD pair, although technical analysis indications are still contradictory. A number indicators point to bearish trends while some others show the opposite – the pair’s upward drive to 1.1450-1.1500;

- the GBP/USD pair is predicted to fall to the level of 1.5000 and then further to 1.4810 during March. Short-term, the pair may rise and make another attempt to break through the strong level of support around 1.5550;

- this week the target for USD/JPY remains the same – 120.50. Strong support is around 118.50, the second support being 117.50;

- the plan for USD/CHF is as follows: getting up to 0.9735 step by step, then a sharp rebound downwards to around 0.9375 and further to 0.9280. However, the realization of this scenario may stretch out over several weeks.

As for last week’s forecast:
- as predicted, in the first half of the week, EUR/USD stayed in a sideways trend. Then on Thursday, on the news from the USA, it fell sharply and so didn’t meet the expectations of many analysts (including ours);

- GBP/USD was also expected to move sideways in the range of 1.5340-1.5500. By mid-week, the pair tried to break through the top boundary, reached 1.5550 but the very same news from the USA quickly returned it to the center of the corridor specified by us;

- according to our “plan,” USD/JPY was supposed stay in a sideways trend all week long, demonstrating a consistent drive to reach 120.50, which happened, except that the target turned out to be even more modest – 119.80;

- finally the USD/CHF pair. The forecast of its attempts to reach the 0.9555 mark was confirmed 100%.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Went Up After Oil Prices

Yesterday world financial markets closed mainly on the rise due to the news from China. As of 1 March 2015, the People’s Bank of China lowered the key interest rate by 0.25%, down to 5.35%. The intention is to shore up economic growth and avert deflation. Markets reacted positively to this news as growth of the second world largest economy would lead to increased oil demand.

However, European equity was an exception to the general upward tendency – the British FTSE 100 fell 0.09 percent down to 6,940.64 points, the German DAX grew 0.08 percent up to 11,410.36 points while the French CAC 40 dropped 0.69 percent and finished the trading session at 4,917.32 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index advanced 1.39 percent up to 1,783.34 points, and the RTS index grew 0.77 percent up to 903.56 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.86 percent getting to 18,288.63 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.61 percent up to 2,117.39 points, and the NASDAQ gained 0.9 percent making 5,008.10 points.

The NYMEX cost of WTI oil futures for April went up by $0.39 and reached $49.98 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for April rose by $0.88 and made $60.42 a barrel. Oil prices were also influenced by a decreased number of oil rigs in the USA – last week the number went down by 43 units or 3.28%, which implies a drop in supply on the oil market.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is still making no headway.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Oil Prices on the Up

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed again. In Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.74 percent to 6,889.13 points, the DAX dropped 1.14 percent down to 11,280.36 points, and the French CAC 40 shed 0.98 percent going down to 4,869.25 points.

On the Russian floors, the MICEX index grew 1.37 percent up to 1,807.70 points while the RTS index advanced 1.49 percent up to 917.05 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 0.47 percent down to 18,203.37 points, the S&P 500 declined by 0.45 percent down to 2,107.78 points whereas the NASDAQ grew 0.56 percent up to 4,979.90 points.

The NYMEX cost of April futures for WTI oil went up by $0.93 and made $50.52 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for April rose by $1.48 and reached $61.02 a barrel. The price hike had to do with an attack on the biggest oil port in Libya.

On the Forex market, the situation with EUR/USD remains unchanged.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 9-13 March 2015 ​

Looking at what has been happening on the currency markets for the past few weeks, we get the impression that soon our screens will show EUR/USD/CHF = 1.0000. In the meantime, generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note that... analysts are simply perplexed: 25% support growth, 25% support a fall and 50% are just at a loss. Therefore, in our forecast for the coming week, we will primarily focus on the indicators and secondly on our own logic and intuition:
- for the EUR/USD pair, the corridor 1.0760-1.1225 is most probable,with prevailing bearish trends and the pair’s downward tendency to the level of 1.0700;

- GBP/USD may rebound to around 1.5225at the start of the week, followed by a fall all the way down to 1.4910;

- the USD/JPY pair is likely to rise to the last week’s high of 121.27 and further to the range of 121.80-122.50. Its support will be at 119.50-119.80;

- the previous plan for USD/CHF stands – moving step by step up towards the symbolic level of 1.0000. The only thing that we can predict is that the movement will be smoother than last week.

As for last week’s forecast, it turned out to be quite modest:
-as predicted, the EUR/USD pair spent the first half of the week in a sideways trend but then, thanks to the ECB’s actions and reports from the USA, the pair easily broke through the lower boundary of the range and went down sharply, proving that indicators could be much more accurate than the deliberations of highbrow analysts. (Remember that 83% of indicators pointed towards the fall of the pair while only 32% of analysts were of this opinion.);

- we predicted that GBP/USD would fall to 1.5000 and then further to 1.4810 during March. But over the past week, the pair completed a massive part of the set task at a record-breaking pace and was short of 1.5000 by a mere 30 points;

- last week, USD/JPY was predicted to go up to the level of 120.50. It did happen as a matter of fact – the pair completed the weekly session at 120.81. Yet, just a few hours before that the pair had reached 121.27 and only after that it returned to the specified level;

- the USD/CHF pair also easily beat the target. It was predicted to advance smoothly up to 0.9735 but actually it briskly rose at an angel of almost 45 degrees and made it to 0.9854, exceeding the set target by 120 points.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Euro Continues to Fall

Last Friday the world’s financial markets closed with a drop for the most part. Some European trading floors posted a rise, though – the German DAX grew 0.41 percent up to 11,550.97 points, the French САС 40 gained 0.02 percent going up to 4,964.35 points whereas the British FTSE 100 fell 0.71 percent to 6,911.80 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index dropped 1.82 percent down to 1,728.55 points, and the RTS index shed 0.98 percent getting to 903.45 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones fell 1.54 percent down to 17,856.78 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.42 percent down to 2,071.26 points, and the NASDAQ lost 1.11 percent reaching 4,927.37 points.

On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for April went down by $1.04 and made $49.72 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for April delivery rose by $0.66 and ended up at $59.82 a barrel.

On the Forex market, the euro posted a further fall against the dollar. EUR/USD may reach 1.0650.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Euro Drops Even Further

Monday saw mixed trading results on world financial markets. In Europe, namely, the FTSE 100 fell 0.51 percent to 6876.47 points, the German DAX grew 0.27 percent up to 11,582.11 points whereas the French CAC 40 dropped 0.55 percent getting down to 4,937.20 points. Market players were influenced by a rise of the investor confidence index. However, there were no considerable rate movements before EU finance ministers’ meeting concerning Greece this week.

In Russia, the MICEX index fell 0.9 percent down to 1,712.99 points, and the RTS index shed 1.1 percent down to 893.52 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones advanced 0.78 percent up to 17,995.72 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.39 percent up to 2,079.43 points, and the NASDAQ added 0.31 percent reaching 4,942.44 points.

The NYMEX price of April WTI oil futures rose by $0.39 and made $50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of April futures for oil of mark Brent went down by $1.20 and reached $58.53 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD continues to fall. In case of favorable macroeconomic data, the pair may get to 1.0650 already this week.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

EUR/USD Dropped Lower Than Expected

Yesterday world financial markets closed mainly on the rise. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.28 percent to 6,721.51 points, the German DAX advanced 2.66 percent up to 11,805.99 points, and the CAC 40 shot up by 2.37 percent to 4,997.75 points.

On the Russian floors, the MICEX index gained 0.37 percent going up to 1,671.47 points, and the RTS index added 0.31 percent reaching 847.98 points.

Amid concerns that the Federal Reserve may raise the key interest rate at the meeting 17 March, the US equity market was on the decline – the Dow Jones fell 0.16 percent to 17,635.39 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.19 percent down to 2,040.24 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.2 percent down to 4,849.94 points.

The NYMEX price of April futures for WTI oil went down by $0.12 and reached $48.17 a barrel. On London’s ICE, on the contrary, the price of Brent oil futures for April rose by $1.15 and made $57.54 a barrel.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD fell even below the expected level of 1.0650. Nonetheless, it’s not a good time to enter the market now as the pair may experience a correction after such a big drop.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16-20 March 2015​

Upon generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it appears that analysts are still at a complete loss, not quite sure what to expect from the market. Unlike the analysts, indicators and our own intuition send pretty clear signals regarding the upcoming week:

- EUR/USD is a very short distance away from the coveted mark of 1.0000, which the pair will try to reach in the nearest future. With this, considering the medium term perspective, analysts come out of their stupor and almost unanimously predict a rebound upwards to 1.1000-1.1200 over the next few weeks;
- as for the GBP/USD pair, the proud Brit can be expected to unwillingly follow the sinking “Titanic”, i.e. the Euro;
- the USD/JPY pair will try to break out of its sideways trend and rise from the range of 120.90-121.65 to the level of 121.50-122.50. The pair may actually reach its next target 123.00 rather quickly. The main support will be around 120.65-120.80;
- the plan for USD/CHFremains the same – upwards to 1.0250, in hopes to fully compensate for the losses of January’s “Black Thursday”.

As for last week’s forecast, my gut feeling was right. Seven days ago, EUR/USD and USD/CHF were predicted to level off around 1.0000. Here are the outcomes:
- EUR/USD fell by 400 points and made it halfway to the target. Just as much remains till the ultimate target;
- the USD/CHF pair actually exceeded expectations and reached 1.01250 on Thursday;
- sticking to the forecast overall, GBP/USD also exceeded the week’s plan. As predicted, it shot up by 100 points on Monday, then rolled downwards and by Thursday reached 1.4910, the mark forecast earlier. Further, the pair rebounded by another 100 points and fell to the level of 1.4750;
- USD/JPY was expected to rise to around 121.80-122.50, which is what happened – the pair got to the landmark of 122.00 and then entered a sideways trend in the corridor of 120.90-121.65.

Roman Butko, NordFX