Daily market analysis by NordFX

[Julia NordFX]

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 8-12 DECEMBER 2014

Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- 8-12 December, the EUR/USD pair will fall further by approximately 100 points to 1.2200. However, it’s quite possible that this may take up to two weeks. Theresistance levelisexpectedtobe1.2375;

- GBP/USD is expected to have a sideways trend with a slight fall to 1.5550 approximately;

- as for the USD/JPY pair, experts continue to wait for the rebound downwards, although now to the level of 120.80. At the same time, the indicators point strictly upwards to the 122.00 mark. So, most probably the pair will be fluctuating in the range of 120.80-122.00;

- the USD/CHF pair is unanimously predicted to rise to the level of April 2013, i.e. from 0.9830 to 0.9850.

As for last week’s forecast:
- there was high probability that EUR/USDwould fall to 1.2350, which, in fact, happened already on Wednesday. The pair spent the rest of the week in a sideways trend, still demonstrating a downward tendency;

- the forecast for GBP/USD was a sideways trend in the corridor of 1.5580-1.5675 with quite strong bearish pressure. The outlook was fully confirmed, and the pair spent the last day of the week between 1.5570 and 1.5690;

- throughout the start of the week, the USD/JPY pair was fulfilling the forecast aiming for the 119.15 mark. Further on, however, instead of the predicted rebound, a sharp breakthrough upwards occurred, and the pair ended Friday at 121.45;

- finally, the USD/CHF pair fully justified the expectations by reaching the promised level of 0.9800. The support level of 0.9620 was also predicted correctly – by rebounding from this bottom level, the pair shot upwards.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Market Slump Continues

Yesterday world financial markets posted a slump again. In Europe, due to the remarks by Ewald Nowotny, an ECB Governing Council member, that he sees “a massive weakening in the euro zone economy,” the British FTSE 100 fell 1.05 percent closing at 6,672.15 points, the German DAX shed 0.72 percent down to 10,014.99 points, and the French CAC 40 dropped 1 percent down to 4,375.48 points.

The Russian equity market slumped following a drop in oil prices. The MICEX index fell 3.13 percent down 1,481.27 points, and the RTS index plummeted all the 4.22 percent down to 870.37 points.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.59 percent closing at 17,852.48 points, the S&P 500 BMI dropped 0.73 percent down to 2,060.31 points, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.84 percent finishing the trading session at 4,740.69 points.

On the NYMEX, WTI oil futures for January plunged by $3.06 reaching $62.78 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for January dropped by $3.14 and closed at $65.93 a barrel. The sharp fall in oil prices was, among other factors, linked to further discounts offered by the world’s biggest oil producers. As such, Iraq intends to supply oil to Asian countries at a price four times lower than the average on the Middle East market.

Thus, analysts take into account all these developments when predicting future oil prices. For instance, yesterday Morgan Stanley published a report that forecasts the price of oil at $43 a barrel in spring 2015 as the worst-case scenario.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is rolling upwards and creating a new corrective wave.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Still No Good News for Europe

Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed with a fall whereas oil price went up a little.

European indices finished the trading session in the red zone due to negative macroeconomic data. For instance, Greece’s ASE index lost 13 percent, which is the biggest slump since 1987. In Great Britain, in turn, the industrial output decreased by 0.1% in October while analysts predicted a 0.3% rise. The annual value of this indicator was also lower than expected.

In the euro zone, equity trading resulted in the British FTSE 100 dropping 2.14 percent down to 6,529.47 points, the German DAX falling 2.21 percent down to 9,793.71 points and the French CAC 40 shedding 2.55 percent closing at 4,263.94 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index fell 0.41 percent down to 1,475.22 points, and the RTS index dropped 1.48 percent finishing the trading session at 857.51 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.29 percent down to 17,801.20 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 shed 0.02 percent down to 2,059.82 points while the NASDAQ Composite grew 0.54 percent up to 4,766.47 points.

Yesterday oil prices posted a slight rise. On London’s ICE, the price of January Brent oil futures went up and settled at $66.73 a barrel. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for January also rose and reached $63.82 a barrel. However, this increase is most probably of a corrective nature. It’s become known that Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum is planning to step up oil production in the country, which would lead to increased supply and consequently put more pressure on global oil prices.

On the Forex market, yesterday EUR/USD tried to go up again but the level of 1.24 turned out to be serious resistance for the pair this time. The pair may have another go at breaking it today. Nonetheless, the upper long shadows of bull candles indicate that investors are unwilling to sell dollars actively.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

OPEC Lowers Oil Prices Further

In the middle of the trading week, the world’s financial markets closed mixed but the bears had an advantage. As such in Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.45 percent down to 6,500.04 points, the German DAX grew 0.06 percent up to 9,799.73 points while the French CAC 40 dropped 0.84 percent closing at 4,227.91 points.

On the Russian floor, the MICEX index gained 0.79 percent going up to 1,486.85 points whereas the RTS index shed 0.29 percent down to 855.05 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.51 percent down to 17,533.15 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 1.64 percent closing at 2,026.14 points, and the NASDAQ Composite slumped 1.73 percent down to 4,684.03 points.

The NYMEX price of the WTI oil future plunged by $2.88 making $60.94 a barrel. The ICE price of the Brent oil future went down by $2.60 and closed at $64.24 a barrel. Such a significant drop in prices was due to the announcement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) about lowering its outlook for oil demand in 2015. The organization estimates that in 2015 global demand of oil supplies by OPEC members will be 28.9 million barrels a day, which is 1.15 million less than their output as of November 2014. The oil demand forecast for 2015 is the lowest since 2003. According to OPEC, the reasons for such a decline are US shale oil supply growth and a general decrease in oil demand by the global community.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is on the rise. If it finishes the day above 1.2565, it may mean a trend reversal. Right now, this can be considered just as a correction.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Further Decline in Markets

Last Friday the world’s financial markets experienced a further slump. As such in Europe, the British FTSE 100 dropped 2.49 percent down to 6,300.63 points, the French CAC 40 fell 2.77 percent down to 4,108.93 points, and the German DAX 30 shed 2.72 percent finishing the trading session at 9,594.73 points.

Russian equity posted varied results – the MICEX index grew 0.32 percent up to 1,459.68 points whereas the RTS index plunged by 3.01 percent down to 799.18 points.

On the US stock market, the day finished with a drop in equity – the Dow Jones fell 1.3 percent down to 17,367.62 points, the S&P 500 BMI shed 1.04 percent down to 2,014.19 points, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.66 percent down to 4,677.20 points.

On the NYMEX, WTI oil futures for January went down by $2.14 and made $57.81 a barrel. On London’s ICE, January futures for oil of mark Brent slumped by $1.83 and reached the price of $61.85 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is on the rise. Nevertheless, the pair has been unable to get over 1.2510 so far, which is a recent strong level on the daily chart.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 15-19 DECEMBER 2014

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be concluded:
- at the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend may continue for a short while and the pair may reach 1.2515. After this, both experts and indicators almost unanimously predict a fall to at least 1.2375;

- GBP/USD is most likely to carry on with its sideways trend in the 1.5560 – 1.5830 range;

- after completing the rebound, the USD/JPY pair is predicted to return to its main (i.e. upward) trend and rise to 120.65;

- the USD/CHF pair may still go further down to the support level around 0.9600, after which it should strive upwards to the range of 0.9810 – 0.9830.

Comments for last week’s forecast:
- the figures for the EUR/USD pair diverge quite a lot, although the tendency was indicated correctly. The prediction for the pair included a fall to the level of 1.2200 (in reality it was to 1.2250) and then a rise to 1.2375 (in reality it was to 1.2485);

- after falling to the predicted level of 1.5550 already on Monday, GBP/USD returned to the average mark of the past three weeks and completely confirmed the forecast about its continuing sideways trend;

- as for predicting the future of the USD/JPY pair, in a fortnight contest between the indicators and the experts, the latter won. The long-awaited rebound downwards finally happened – first to the level of 120.80 and then to 117.60, which experts had already identified at the beginning of December;

- everyone predicted USD/CHF to go up to the level of April 2013 – 0.9830. On Monday, the pair tried to reach this height but, on getting to 0.9817, it turned around and went downwards to the pivot point of the past month and a half.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Russian Equity Market Spins Out of Control

Yesterday world financial markets closed with a slump. The Russian equity market posted the biggest drop. As such, the MICEX index fell 2.38 percent down to 1,424.99 points while the RTS index plummeted to 718.32 points losing 10.12 percent altogether. That was the way the equity market reacted to the swiftly declining ruble rate on Monday. In its turn, the ruble went down due to the Russian Central Bank’s forecast on Monday that Russia’s economy would contract by 4.8 percent in 2015.

Last night, Russia’s Central Bank decided to raise the key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% at once with the purpose of calming the panic on the currency market. As a result, the rate of the dollar to the ruble went down by 6 rubles but later the dollar started to go up again.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for January dropped by $1.90 reaching $55.91 a barrel. On London’s ICE, Brent oil futures for January went down by $1.10 and finished trading at $60.75 a barrel.

Both European and US indices are on the decline. Yesterday US Manufacturing Index data were released, according to which the index went into the red by 3.58 points instead of growing from 10.16 points in November to 12.10 points in December, as predicted. Besides, investors are waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Many analysts agree that the Federal Reserve will forego the long-term period when discussing plans for the current key interest rates which are close to zero.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.58 percent down to 17,180.84 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 0.63 percent down to 1,989.63 points, and the NASDAQ Composite slumped 1.04 percent finishing the trading session at 4,605.16 points.

European indices posted the following results – Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.87 percent down to 6,182.72 points, France’s CAC 40 shed 2.52 percent down to 4,005.38 points, and Germany’s DAX 30 dropped 2.72 percent closing at 9,334.01 points.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD is getting nearer 1.2510. Today the pair may reach 1.2565 and roll down from this level.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Take the Cue from the Federal Reserve

Yesterday world financial markets closed mainly in the red zone. Europe’s stock markets made an exception, though, and finished the trading session on the rise – the British FTSE 100 grew 2.41 percent up to 6,331.83 points, the French CAC 40 gained 2.19 percent making 4,093.20 points, and the German DAX advanced 2.46 percent up to 9,563.89 points.

Tuesday’s ruble crash on the currency market made the RTS index plummet – it plunged 12.41 percent and stopped at 629.15 points. The MICEX index, on the contrary, grew 1.36 percent up to 1,444.32 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65 percent down to 17,068.87 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 0.85 percent down to 1,972.74 points, and the NASDAQ Composite shed 1.25 percent going down to 4,547.83 points.

On the NYMEX, WTI oil futures for January rose by $0.02 and reached $55.93 a barrel. On London’s ICE, Brent oil futures for January went down by $1.20 and finished trading at $59.86 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD just pinpricked the 1.2565 mark on the daily chart. Nonetheless, it finished the day exactly at 1.2510. Thus, this level hasn’t been overcome yet. Today the Federal Reserve’s decision about the key interest rate and commentaries about the USA’s further monetary policy will be made public. The EUR/USD pair’s trend may change drastically in light of this news.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Rise on Markets as Fed Report Released

Most of the world’s financial markets finished mid-week trading in the black. As such in Europe, while awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.07 percent up to 6,336.48 points, the French CAC 40 advanced 0.46 percent up to 4,111.91 points but the German DAX fell 0.2 percent down to 9,544.43 points.

The Russian market is still going up and down – yesterday the MICEX index dropped 2.11 percent down to 1,413.79 points while the RTS index shot up by 14.16 percent closing at 718.26 points.

US stock indices were on the rise as reports on the Federal Reserve’s meeting results and Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s speech were being released. In its announcement about the key interest rate, the Federal Reserve didn’t use the usual ‘extended period’ any more. Instead, it called for patience. Besides, Yellen indirectly confirmed that the Federal Reserve would consider raising the interest rate already in the middle of 2015. All these factors were taken by market players as proof of economic growth in the USA.

As a result, the Dow Jones added 1.69 percent closing at 17,356.87 points, the S&P 500 dropped 2.04 percent down to 2,012.89 points while the NASDAQ grew 2.12 percent up to 4,644.31 points.

The NYMEX price of the WTI oil future for January rose by $0.54 and made $56.47 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for February delivery went up by $1.17 and reached $61.18 a barrel.

On the Forex market, the dollar gained quite a bit of ground against the euro. However, EUR/USD didn’t manage to break out of the current 1.2565 – 1.2245 correction range. Nothing drastic has happened there so far.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Buying Trend Continues

Yesterday world stock markets were on the up with one accord due to the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. In Europe, the British FTSE 100 grew 2.04 percent up to 6,466 points, the French CAC 40 advanced 3.35 percent up to 4,249.49 points, and the German DAX gained 2.79 percent going up to 9,811.06 points.

On the Russian equity market, the MICEX index grew 4.49 percent making 1,477.27 points while the RTS index hiked up by 6.5 percent getting to 764.96 points. Russia’s market got a boost from a 3-hour long annual press conference by Russian President Vladimir Putin as well.

US stock indices posted a noticeable rise – the Dow Jones added 2.43 percent closing at 17,778.15 points, the S&P 500 advanced 2.4 percent up to 2,061.23 points, and the NASDAQ grew 2.24 percent up to 4,748.40 points.

At the same time, oil prices went down yesterday. On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for January dropped by $2.36 making $54.11 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for February got lower by $1.91 and reached $59.27 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD continues to go down to the lower boundary of the correction range.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECASTFOR 22-26 DECEMBER 2014​

Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world top banks and broker companies and forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be concluded that… Christmas is round the corner, and so the main currency pairs are likely to stay in a lulling sideways trend before the holidays (unless, of course, something extraordinary happens):
- the EUR/USD pair will oscillate around 1.2270-1.2280, most likely gravitating downwards in an effort to break through the level of 1.2200;

- the same can be said about the GBP/USD pair, whose target will be 1.5530;

- USD/JPY will most probably try to reach the height of 120.00 after all, although in the first half of the week it may fall to 118.50 and even to 117.50;

- finally, USD/CHF will, with high probability, remain in a sideways trend, moving along the level of 0.9800.

As for last week’s forecast, it appears to have come true practically 100%:
- the EUR/USD pair completely followed the predicted trends – first it rose, breaking through the level of 1.2500, and then crashed downwards – first to 1.2375 and then even further down, finishing the week at 1.2225;

- the forecast for GBP/USD also turned out to be correct – the pair continued its sideways movement in the range, the boundaries of which had already been set in November;

- similarly,the behavior of theUSD/JPY pair was fully predictable – completing the rebound, it shot upwards, although it didn’t quite reach the set target of 120.65 and finished the week at 119.53;

- finally, the USD/CHF pair’s movements were also quite foreseeable – pushing off from the support level of 0.9575, it made a powerful surge upwards, breaking through the level of 0.9800.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

EUR/USD Moves Down Again

Last Friday the world’s financial markets closed mixed. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced 1.23 percent up to 6,545.27 points, the DAX 30 fell 0.25 percent closing at 9,778.90 points, and the CAC 40 shed 0.18 percent down to 4,241.65 points.

On the Russian equity market, the MICEX index dropped 1.9 percent down to 1,449.13 points whereas the RTS index grew 0.41 percent up to 768.06 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.15 percent closing at 17,804.80 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 grew 0.46 percent up to 2,070.65 points, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.36 percent going up to 4,765.38 points.

The MYMEX price of WTI oil futures for January rose by $2.41 and made $56.52 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for February went up by $2.11 and finished trading at $61.38 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is going down. Now it’s at the bottom boundary of the weekly triangle. As the scale is quite large, it’s hard to pinpoint the level at which the pair may break out of the triangle or rebound from the support. Thus, it would make sense just to watch the pair’s movements for some time.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Closed Mixed Before Holidays

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. European markets had a shorter trading session before the holidays and posted the following results – the British FTSE 100 grew 0.18 percent up to 6,609.93 points while the French CAC 40 fell 0.44 percent down to 4,295.85 points. There was no trading in Germany.

On the Russian equity market, the MICEX index gained 0.24 percent going up to 1,401.50 points, and the RTS index advanced 2.51 percent finishing the trading session at 814.97 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.03 percent getting to 18,030.21 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 shed 0.01 percent down to 2,081.88 points whereas the NASDAQ Composite grew 0.17 percent up to 4,773.47 points.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for February went down by $1.28 and closed at $55.84 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future dropped $1.45 and finished trading at $60.24 a barrel.

On the Forex market, the dollar continues to go up. In case of its further rise, EUR/USD will get to 1.2060.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER 2014 – 2 JANUARY 2015​

With the holidays obviously leaving their mark on trading results, nonetheless we’ll still try to generalize the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis:

- in the near future EUR/USD is most likely to be moving along the level of 1.2200, which is quite a strong level for the pair. Besides, EUR/USD will continue with its downward tendency, although at the beginning of the week a temporary rebound upwards to 1.2250 is possible;

- there are contradictory predictions for GBP/USD. pair are rather contradictory. A sideways corridor in the range of 1.5450-1.5575 has been identified while, in the long term, a rebound upwards to the level of 1.5760 is possible;

- the USD/JPY pair will most probably continue to move towards yet another height – this time it will be the 121.00 mark. The support level for the pair will be 118.90;

- USD/CHFwill most likely keep trying to reach the landmark level of 1.0000, after which a fairly serious rollback might follow.

As for last week’s forecast:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to fluctuatearound1.2270-1.2280 and strive downwards trying to break through the level of 1.2200, which is what actually happened. After rising to 1.2270 early in the week, the pair went downwards and finished the session at 1.2180;

- the forecast regarding GBP/USD also turned out to be correct – the pair went down to the predicted level of 1.5530, broke through it on Wednesday and then returned to the setpoint values, finishing at the level of 1.5553;

- USD/JPY was predicted to be assailing the 120.00 height. The pair completed the task successfully – this level was reached by the middle of the week;

- USD/CHF, instead of following the sideways trend along the level of 0.9800, pushed off it and went up to 0.9870.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Prepare for New Year’s

Last Friday the world’s financial markets posted mixed trading results on the eve of New Year holidays. European markets were closed for Christmas holidays.

In Russia, the MICEX index grew 0.66 percent up to 1,417.80 points whereas the RTS index fell 1.84 percent down to 828.57 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.13 percent going up to 18,053.71 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.33 percent up to 2,088.77 points, and the NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.7 percent up to 4,806.86 points.

On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for February dropped by $1.11 and reached $54.73 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the February future for oil of mark Brent went down by $0.79 and made $59.45 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD has been unable to break through the level of 1.2170. The pair may never manage to do it this year.

Anna Gorenkova

NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Markets Are Undecided

Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed again. In Europe, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.30 percent up to 6,629.73 points, the French САС 40 advanced 0.49 percent up to 4,316.94 points, and the German DAX gained 0.04 percent getting to 9,925.63 points. Markets got a boost from Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann’s announcements. He said that GDP growth in 2015 would most likely exceed forecasts as they don’t fully reflect all positive economic consequences of the drop of oil prices.

All eyes are also on Greece at this time where the parliament wasn’t able to elect a new president for the third time yesterday. This means that the country will hold snap elections early in 2015. Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, has good chances of winning the elections.

On the Russian floor, the MICEX index grew 1.07 percent up to 1,432.94 points whereas the RTS index dropped 4.04 percent altogether and stopped at 795.09 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09 percent down to 18,032.23 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.09 percent closing at 2,090.57 points, and the NASDAQ Composite added 0.001% reaching 4,806.91 points.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for February shed $1.12 and made $53.61 a barrel. On London’s ICE, Brent oil futures for February went down by $1.57 and reached $57.88 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD isn't making any headway. It might be worth minimizing your trades before the New Year break.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 5-9 JANUARY 2015​

Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- despite most indicators showing a further fall of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, analysts are inclined towards a more probable sideways trend with a rebound upwards at the beginning of the week. Certain key indicators also point towards overselling and strong volatility;
- there’s rare unanimity regarding the USD/JPY pair – upwards and only upwards to the height of 121.00 and even further up;
- the USD/CHF pair is very likely to try and secure its position above the key mark of 1.0000, while strong fluctuations are not expected.

It is said that New Year is a time of surprises. It turns out that it’s not only Santa Claus who brings them but also… Forex. As for last week’s forecast:
- at the start of the week, EUR/USD tried to follow our forecast and, having risen slightly, it began a smooth descent. Then at midnight from 1st to 2nd January, the pair shot off like a high-board diver, demonstrating a spectacular price gap of 50 points, and then continued its rapid decline slowing down only at 1.2000;
- even more impressive was the fall of the British Pound – the GBP/USD pair tumbled downwards by 300 points altogether;
- in spite of a gap, USD/JPY confirmed our forecast almost 100% – first it fell to the level of 118.850 and then went upwards, reaching the height of 120.00 as expected;
- as for USD/CHF, it was sure to reach the symbolic mark of 1.0000 at some point but very few thought it would happen so soon. Indeed, New Year is a time of surprises!

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

The Year Started in the Red Zone

The world’s financial markets finished the first trading session of 2015 mainly with a drop. In Europe as such, due to weak macroeconomic data and ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, the British FTSE 100 shed 0.28 percent down to 6,547.80 points, the French САС 40 fell 0.48 percent down to 4,252.29 points while the German DAX grew 0.42 percent up to 9,764.73 points.

In his speech ECB Chief Mario Draghi said that at this time there’s a chance the central bank won’t be able to fulfil its mandate to keep prices stable. Overall, investors had a negative impression of Draghi’s remarks which conveyed the idea of fragile and inconsistent recovery of the eurozone economy.

In the USA, stock indices closed predominately with a fall due to slack statistics – the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 0.06 percent up to 17,832.99 points whereas the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent finishing trading at 2,058.20 points, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.2 percent down to 4,726.81 points.

Oil prices are on the decline as well. On the NYMEX, WTI oil futures for February went down by $0.58 making $52.69 a barrel. On London’s ICE, Brent oil futures for February dropped $0.91 and reached $56.42 a barrel.

Yesterday Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announced plans to increase oil exports in the new year. It would bring about a further drop in oil prices globally.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD started the new calendar year with a fall. A confident break out of the weekly triangle downwards means that the dollar will continue to get stronger in 2015. Currently EUR/USD is facing 1.1916, the support level of 2010. If the pair gets over it, its next hurdle will be just the 9-year-old support level of 1.1825. As this rate was the support in 2006, it’s very likely that the pair would form new reversal levels of support and resistance. With all this said, today’s gap should be taken notice of. The pair may first close the gap.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Decline Continues

Yesterday world financial markets closed with a crash. In Europe, for one, stock indices went down due to a drop in oil prices and concerns that the political crisis in Greece could lead to its exit from the euro zone and to a default afterwards. Trading resulted in the British FTSE 100 falling 2 percent down to 6,417.16 points, the French САС 40 dropping all the 3.31 percent down to 4,111.36 points and the German DAX shedding 2.99 percent down to 9,473.16 points.

On the Russian market, the dollar-based RTS index plunged 3.72 percent down to 761.30 points. At the same time, the MICEX index grew 2.8 percent up to 1,435.66 points. This was in response to the meeting of German, French, Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Berlin. The meeting focused on the resolution of the crisis in Ukraine, and one of its outcomes was the announcement of possible withdrawal of sanctions against Russia.

US markets also reacted to falling oil prices – the Dow Jones dropped 1.86 percent down to 17,501.65 points, the S&P 500 shed 1.83 percent down to 2,020.58 points, and the NASDAQ fell 1.57 percent down to 4,652.57 points.

Last Sunday, Iraq voiced its plans to increase oil production in 2015, and on Monday, the global oil market displayed quite a strong reaction to it. Thus, the NYMEX price of WTI oil futures went down by $2.65 and closed at $50.04 a barrel. In the course of trading, the price got below $50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures plunged by $3.31 and reached $53.11 a barrel.

On the global Forex market, EUR/USD is holding at the support level so far. If there are no fresh stimuli for the euro’s fall, the pair will start a correction at this rate.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst

 

[Julia NordFX]

Oil Prices Gave Markets a Glimmer of Hope for a Rise

On Thursday, world financial markets posted an overall rise. Investors were encouraged by a slight stabilization of oil prices. Thus, in Europe, the British FTSE 100 grew 2.44 percent up to 6,576.51 points, the French CAC 40 advanced 3.71 percent up to 4,265.18 points, and the German DAX added 3.47 percent making 9,848.28 points.

On the Russian floors, the RTS index shot up by 8.78 percent reaching 812.02 points, and the MICEX index advanced 4.5 percent up to 1,547.39 points. The indices increased not only due to more stable oil prices but also due to attempts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine taken at the meeting of Russian, German, French and Ukrainian representatives and talks about possibly cancelling sanctions against Russia.

In the USA, the Dow Jones gained 1.8 percent closing at 17,900.80 points, the S&P 500 grew 1.78 percent up to 2,062.01 points, and the NASDAQ advanced 1.84 percent finishing the trading session at 4,736.19 points.

On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for February rose by $0.14 and made $48.79 a barrel. On London’s ICE, February futures for oil of mark Brent went down by $0.19 and reached $50.96 a barrel. Nonetheless, experts believe that the current stabilization of oil prices is temporary as there haven’t been any radical changes in the world’s economy or oil demand.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD closed below the 9-year support level and never held at it even for a day, which shows that the ‘old’ daily levels can’t be considered as indicative of the pair’s reversal and targets. It would make more sense now to wait for EUR/USD to renew its lows. Besides, the pair hasn’t yet closed the gap formed at the beginning of the week.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst