Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

BCC: UK economy growth at fastest since 2007

FXBAZOOKA.com - Great Britain's economy will grow at its fastest pace since 2007 this year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said. BCC upgraded its 2014 UK GDP forecast from 3.1% to 3.2%. The 2015 forecast was also revised up from 2.7% to 2.8%. However, the body expects growth to slow in 2016 with economy growing by only 2.5%.

"Our forecast confirms that Britain has become one of the fastest-growing developed economies. We are leading, rather than following, other major economies when it comes to short-term growth," BCC says.

However, the assosiation warns: the economy is too reliant on consumer spending to accelerate GDP growth. The government has to support investment and exports.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1657

 

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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

Speculation about ECB’s QE cooled

By Mark Jensen

FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD has recovered from a 1-year low in the $1.3150 area to the levels above $1.3200 as the speculation about an imminent round of quantitative easing by the ECB cooled.

According to Reuters, which is citing some unnamed sources, the European Central Bank is unlikely to take new policy action next week unless inflation figures on Friday show the euro zone sinking significantly towards deflation.

Consumer prices in Spain fell in July by 0.5%. Traders are now waiting for German inflation data (forecast 0.0% vs. 0.3% previous) due later today and the reading for the entire euro area which is released on Friday (forecast 0.3% vs. 0.4% previous). But some say that if Friday’s numbers do show the euro zone getting even closer to deflationary territory, the ECB would necessarily act.

Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon point out that one “could have argued that QE should have come along when inflation was at 0.8 or 0.9%, so we can’t suddenly expect action just because inflation drops from 0.4% to 0.3%, or even if it were to drop unexpectedly to 0.2%.” Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Investments, said that bond purchases would be difficult to launch and slow to implement, and the effects of Mr. Draghi’s words could dissipate as the debate within the central bank drags on.

Taking into account big EUR shorts one has to be cautious ahead of the Sept. 4 ECB meeting.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1658

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

The 27th of August: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company

The American dollar was slightly flat today because of the absence of major macroeconomic indicators. At the opening of the session, the dollar fell down by 0.17%.

Stock markets opened oppositely directed. So, the DJIA currently adds about 0.07% and S & P500 is expected to decline, losing about 0.03%.

There is a weakening of the dollar on currency markets. Thus, EUR / USD pair has returned to the level of 1.3190, after today's low of 1.3150. GBP / USD has suddenly jumped to the figure of 1.6600; the support level of 1.6540 resisted. As for the currency pair USD / CHF, it has been corrected to the level of 0.9150 as the morning bulls failed to gain a foothold in new height of 0.9180. The declining tendency can be also found in the case of the pair USD / JPY, which is once again testing the support level of 103.80.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1660

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 28: American session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



GDP growth to 4.2% instead of the expected 4.0% significantly increased interest to American dollar. At the opening of session index added about 0.17% and reached 81.60, after declining to 81.35. Applications for unemployment benefits, the amount of which decreased to 298 thousand (forecast: growth of up to 300 thousand) also added positive mood. The data on the real estate market which can also support the dollar index is expected a bit later.

Dollar has also been increasing in currency markets. For example, EUR / USD pair fell again to the level of 1.3160. GBP / USD pair dropped to 1.6570 morning support. Currency pair USD / CHF grew to around 0.9160, and USD / JPY back to around 103.80.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1661

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 29: Asian session

FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks fell as the geopolitical risk flared again. The United States on Thursday openly accused Russia of sending combat forces into Ukraine and threatened to tighten economic sanctions.

USD/JPY rose to 103.85 as Japan released discouraging economic data. Japanese household spending fell more than expected, the jobless rate edged up and factory output remained weak in July after plunging last month.

EUR/USD edged down towards $1.3170. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6580 area.

NZD/USD dipped to $0.8350 before recovering to $0.8370. New Zealand building consents rose by only 0.1% in July versus 3.5% expected, while the ANZ Business Confidence index diminished from 39.7 to 24.4. AUD/USD consolidates in a narrow $0.9345/60 range following the yesterday’s quick spike to $0.9370.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1662

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 29)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200 (large), $1.3215, $1.3235/40 (large), $1.3250 (large)

GBP/USD: $1.6550, $1.6600, $1.6690;

USD/JPY: 102.50/102.90 (large), 103.00 (large), 103.20 (large), 103.25 (large), 103.35, 103.75/85 (large), 104.00 (large), 104.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9290/95, $0.9310/15, $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0800, 1.0870 (large), 1.0900, 1.0915/25 (large), 1.0940/50;

NZD/USD: $0.8350, $0.8400 (large), $0.8440/50;

EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000;

EUR/JPY: 136.50 (large), 136.75, 138.15 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1663

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

The 29th of August: American Session

At the opening session the index of the American dollar adds more than 0.05% against the background of positive statistics from the University of Michigan. However stock markets were opened oppositely directed. Thus, the DJIA fell by 0.10% and S & P500 grew up by 0.05%.



Currency markets are consolidated. The pair EUR / USD was trying to recover the 1.3200 figure, but it retuned to the support level of 1.3160 with the arrival of American players. Bulls are in a gail the figure 1.6600 on the pair GBP / USD. As for USD / CHF, it has resisted above level of 0.9140 and is recovering to 0.9160 now. USD / JPY fell back to 103.80 after testing the figure 104.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1665

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 1: Asian session

FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar reached the highest level in almost a year against the euro as signs of US economic growth and tensions in Ukraine boosted demand for the currency. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3127. GBP/USD edged a bit up, to the $1.6600.

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 104.17. Most Asian stocks rose, as investors weighed whether Chinese policy makers will add stimulus after reports showing slower manufacturing growth.

AUD/USD opened the week with a bearish gap, but recovered to $0.9340 in the Asian trade. NZD/USD tracked the Aussie, recovering into the $0.8375 area. Commodity currencies stayed in demand despite the weak Chinese figures and a contraction in Australian company operating profits.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1666

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 1)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3135, $1.3185/95, $1.3290/3300 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6635;

USD/JPY: 103.25 (large), 103.40, 104.20;

AUD/USD: $0.9320;

USD/CAD: 1.0800 (large), 1.1000 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1667

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
1 September 2014

CFTC report: week ending Aug. 26

FXBAZOOKA.com - According to the latest CFTC report, released on Aug. 29, large traders and speculators raised their USD bullish bets to the highest level since June 2013. The value of net USD longs increased from $30.4 billion as of Aug. 19 to $32.9 billion as of Aug. 26.

The aggregate long USD position was mainly supported by growing EUR and JPY net shorts.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1668

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 2: Asian session

Asian shares slipped on Tuesday as a US holiday robbed markets of momentum. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6% after rising on the previous day.

USD/JPY soared to 104.86. Yen weakened before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announces a new cabinet tomorrow.

AUD/USD fell to $0.9285. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at a record low to support growth and said an overvalued currency is hampering the economy’s transition away from mining investment. NZD/USD fell to $0.8340.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3130/20 area. Euro hit a fresh 1-year low on uncertainty over the ECB’s policy decision later this week. GBP/USD slid below $1.6600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1670

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 2)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100 (large), $1.3125, $1.3200 (large);

USD/JPY: 103.90, 104.00 (large), 104.30;

AUD/USD: $0.9250 (large), $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0870, 1.0900;

NZD/USD: $0.8400;

EUR/JPY: 137.75.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1671

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
2 September 2014

JPY is affected by Abe expectations

Japanese yen got under pressure because of the speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint tomorrow an ally – Yasuhisa Shiozaki – to head the health, labor and welfare ministry, which is in charge of reforming the nation’s pension fund.

Shiozaki has been actively putting forward suggestions on GPIF reform (Government Pension Investment Fund). Such expectations are lifting up Japanese stocks and keeping yen under pressure.

According to Bloomberg, Japan’s health ministry oversees the 127.3 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) GPIF, the world’s largest pool of retirement savings. It will probably announce its new asset allocations in autumn. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in May predict GPIF will raise its holdings of Japanese equities and trim its domestic bond assets.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1672

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

The 2d of September: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company

The index of the American dollar continues strengthening. During the day the index has tested the 83.00 figure and added more than 0.20% at the opening of the American session. Later on the data on manufacturing activity (ISM) for the last monthwas published. Analysts forecast a slight decline.

The Stock market trading was opened with a decrease. DJIA index dipped slightly to 0.13%, while the S & P 500 - 0.03%.

The trading of EUR / USD pair is relatively quiet. At the beginning of the American session, this currency pair has returned to the level of 1.3125, after updating to 1.3110 lows. Bulls completely lost the Friday's attitude in the case of the pair GBP / USD,that lost about half of the figure during the day, and went down to 1.6510 level. New extremum was established by the pair USD / CHF recovering to 0.9211 today, but as for now it retuned to figure. The currency pair USD / JPY has greatly increased to maximum level of December of the last year - 105.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1675

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 3: Asian session

FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks rose as the yen fell to a January low and reports showed faster expansion in China’s service industries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%.

USD/JPY reached 105.30. US dollar strengthened on bets quickening U.S. growth will spur the Fed to increase interest rates sooner than traders anticipate. Yen weakened as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint Yasuhisa Shiozaki to head the ministry in charge of revamping the national pension fund. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3130 area. GBP/USD hit $1.6444.

AUD/USD remains relatively unchanged in the Asian session, despite the high volatility. The pair swung in the $0.9260/9300 range. Australian GDP growth slowed from 1.1% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2, but came a bit above the forecast (+0.4%). Anyway, this was the lowest quarterly GDP growth since the year 2012. China Services PMI had little impact to the Aussie. NZD/USD dipped to $0.8280 before returning back above the $0.8300 mark.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1676

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 3)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100, $1.3180, $1.3200;

USD/JPY: 104.25, 104.65, 105.00 (large), 105.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9225 (large), $0.9275/85 (large), $0.9310;

USD/CAD: 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.1000;

NZD/USD: $0.8370;

EUR/GBP: 0.7855, 0.7875, 0.7900, 0.7915.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1678

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

RBA will remain firmly on hold

FXBAZOOKA.com - Australian economic growth has slowed in Q2, but came a bit above expectations. The biggest contributor to growth remains the mining sector, accounting for around 1.2% of GDP. A rebound in inventories helped to support the overall figure.

The comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens made Aussie rise. Stevens said that further cuts in the interest rates are unlikely and that there are signs that growth continuing in the current quarter. While this is hardly news for the market, this may liquidate the remaining doves calling for lower interest rates.

RBC: “Q3 is looking slightly better but it’s not going to be enough to get back to above trend growth any time soon. We see the RBA for the foreseeable future.”

ANZ: “We don’t think the RBA will be swayed from its on-hold stance, with the gradual nature of the recovery unlikely to generate significant improvement in the unemployment rate for some time.”

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1679

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

Traders fear RBNZ intervention

NZD/USD fell to the lowest levels since the end of February in the $0.8285 area. Kiwi slipped after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s biggest dairy exporter, said the price of whole milk powder fell to the lowest since July 2012.

Moreover, the decline of New Zealand’s dollar since July was caused by comments of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler who said back then that NZD’s strength was “unjustified” and risked hurting the economy. The RBNZ put the further interest-rate increases on hold after it became in March the first major central banker to lift borrowing costs in 3 years.

Traders now think that the RBNZ may intervene at the currency market. Speculation that officials intervened intensified as the kiwi dropped on Aug. 25. Unlike last year, officials haven’t confirmed this time that they sought to weaken the currency.

Analysts at ANZ point out that in such situation traders will less likely try to buy NZD on the potential bottom for fear that there are some big sellers at the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1680

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

September, 3: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index, after updating its highs (83.06), has corrected to the 82.90 area today and is losing about 0.07% at the American session opening. Data on US factory orders for the past month are expected to be published a little later. Analysts are predicting a significant growth of the index.

Stock markets have opened on the positive. DJIA is adding about 0.43%, S & P500 - about 0.30%.

Currency markets are in consolidation today. Thus, the EUR/USD pair has fixed above 1.3120 and is trading within the range of 1.3120-1.3150. GBP/USD rate varies within the 1.6450-1.6490 channel. The USD/CHF pair has corrected to the 0.9175 support, but the downward movement is not yet over. The USD/JPY currency pair is back under the 105.00 figure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1684

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

Bank of Canada remained neutral

The Bank of Canada left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% in line with expectations.

The main message was that the central bank “remains neutral with respect to the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate, its timing will depend on how new information influences the outlook and assessment of risks.”

The BOC said that the increase in inflation was caused by temporary effects of higher energy prices. More important, though, is that the regulator sounded optimistic on US economic growth.

USD/CAD declined below 1.0900 as Canadian dollar strengthened.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1685