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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

MARKET NEWS
15 August 2014

BOJ: 2015 rate hike under question


The economic conditions in Japan keep on worsening. According to the unnamed Bank of Japan officials, the central bank may cut economic forecasts for the fiscal year 2014 as exports fail to support the economy, weakened by the sales tax hike in April. Economic growth for the 12 months through March 2015 will be below 1% forecasted earlier.

Another related piece of news: Japan finance minister Aso said early Friday they will closely watch economic data from Q3 before deciding whether to hike rates in Octover 2015.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1605
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 18: Asian session


Asia_eng.jpg


Asian stocks after last week’s gains stalled as another bout of tensions in the Ukrainian conflict sapped investor confidence. US dollar weakened versus its counterparts ahead of data forecast to show inflation slowed and before central bankers meet at an annual conference in Jackson Hole.

USD/JPY is trading at the 200-day MA in the 102.30 area. EUR/USD is just under $1.3400. GBP/USD opened with more than a 30-pip gap up at $1.6730. Pound rose on the comments from Bank of England’s Governor Carney who said that he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest rates.

Commodity currencies trade sideways on Monday. AUD/USD consolidates around the Friday high of $0.9320. Australia new motor vehicle sales fell by 1.3% versus prior 2.2% growth. NZD/USD trades in a narrow $0.8470/8500 range. Gold sits at the 200-week MA ($1301.70).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1608
 
MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 18)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

USD/JPY: 101.75/80, 102.15, 102.65, 102.80 (large), 103.00;

USD/CAD: 1.0925/30 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.9310;

EUR/CHF: 1.2000 (large), 1.2150;

EUR/GBP: 0.7965, 0.8000 (large), 0.8010 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1610
 
MARKET NEWS
18 August 2014

CFTC: net USD longs declined


FX BAZOOKA - According to the latest CFTC report, released om Aug. 15, large speculators reduced their net USD longs from $29.41 billion on Aug. 5 to $27.00 billion on Aug. 12. This was the first decline in positions value after 3 weeks of growth. The calculation considers the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

us-cot-values.png

However, the amount of USD contracts rose last week from 129K contracts to 144K contracts. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies: the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

EUR net short positions rebounded last week from the most bearish level since Aug. 2012, but still remain heavily bearish.

cftc%20sds.png

Source: CFTC

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1611
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 18: American Session


US_eng.jpg


Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index has kept hold above the 81.40 support today. Bullish sentiment is noticable at the American session opening, which stimulated the index to add more than 0.15%. Stock markets are also on the rise: DJIA has opened with a gap-up and is currently in the green zone - +0.80%, while S&P500 is adding over 0.65%. Important macroeconomic indicators are not expected today.

Currency markets are also witnessing strengthening of the dollar positions against other major currencies. Thus, EUR/USD has bounced down from the 1.3400 figure and is now in the area of Friday's lows - 1.3360. The USD/CHF currency pair has risen to 0.9060. GBP/USD has failed to overcome the 1.6730 resistance and is decreasing into the 1.6720 area. In the meantime, bulls are restoring the USD/JPY rate to the 102.60 mark - bullish sentiments is obvious to remain.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1612
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 19: Asian session


Asia_eng.jpg

US dollar held gains against major peers as signs of economic recovery supported the case for the Fed to raise interest rates. Asian stocks rose after confidence in the US housing industry climbed to the highest level in 7 months and tensions eased over global political conflicts. USD/JPY edged up to 102.65.

AUD/USD rose to $0.9340. Australian dollar gained after the nation’s central bank reiterated a period of rates stability is prudent. NZD/USD slid from $0.8475 testing $0.8424. New Zealand’s currency fell for a third day after a producer-price index declined by 0.5% in Q2.

EUR/USD slid to the $1.3350 area. GBP/USD is trading on the downside, but managed to stay above $1.6700.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1613
 
MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 19)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3350 (large), $1.3365/75, $1.3390;

GBP/USD: $1.6600, $1.6685, $1.6795;

USD/JPY: 102.50, 102.60, 103.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9290, $0.9340;

USD/CAD: 1.0850/55, 1.0950;

NZD/USD: $0.8425, $0.8450;

EUR/CHF: 1.2100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1614
 
MARKET NEWS
19 August 2014

GBP/USD fell as inflation slowed


GBP/USD fell to $1.6623, the lowest level since the beginning of April closing this week’s opening gap.

Pound weakened as the UK inflation data came lower than expected. Note though that the inflation (1.6%) is still rather close to the Bank of England's 2% target. Further dynamics of GBP will depend on the market's expectations ahead of the BoE's minutes release on Wednesday, 08:30 GMT).

UK%20CPI.png


More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1615
 
MARKET NEWS

The 19th of August: American Session


america1.png


Tatiana Norkina, the analyst at FBS Company



The American dollar continued its strengthening and has grown to the point of 81.92 today. At the beginning of the session, the Index added about 0.30%. The main driver of the movement was the relatively positive information about inflation, as well as the strong statistics of the construction sector.

Stock markets are going way up the fifth consecutive session increasing by 0.35% at the opening today.

Also the strengthening of the dollar has affected the majority of dollar currency pairs. Thus, the pair EUR / USD has fallen to a new low of 1.3310. Currency pair USD / CHF got around the 0.9100 figure, enhancing the chances of the bulls in the handled violation and the resnewal of the up trend. GBP / USD pair has collapsed to the support level of 1.6620, losing more than the half of the figure in the morning. But USD / JPY has recovered to the upper limit of the range 102.60-102.80 constraining bulls movement from the beginning of August.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1617
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 20: Asian session


Asia_eng.jpg


FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar strengthened on speculation the Fed is moving toward raising interest rates. Good US housing data helped Treasury yields get higher.

USD/JPY rose to 103.25 as Japanese trade deficit widened more than expected and the all industries activity contracted. AUD/USD slid to 102.78. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that the central bank has decided to stick to its current policy for a time being and reiterated the risk of a material fall in the Australian dollar is “underestimated.” NZD/USD fell to 5-month low at $0.8370 as the greenback’s strength added to bearish factors including soft dairy prices and investor preference for the neighboring Aussie dollar.

EUR/USD declined to $1.3300. GBP/USD edged down to $1.6600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1618
 
MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 20)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3350/55, $1.3400 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6650;

USD/JPY: 102.00, 102.50 (large), 102.75/80, 103.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9100 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9225, $0.9335;

USD/CAD: 1.0880, 1.0900;

EUR/JPY: 136.65.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1619
 
MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

GBP jumped on the MPC minutes


FXBAZOOKA.com - GBP/USD jumped back from $1.6600 on the Bank of England’s meeting minutes. As it turned out, 2 MPC members (Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale) voted for a rate hike, while other 7 voted to keep rates unchanged. At the previous meetings the all 9 MPC members voted for no changes in rates.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1620
 
MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

EUR: be ready for data on Thursday


FXBAZOOKA.com - The euro area is due to release manufacturing & services PMIs for August tomorrow. This is the first report to signal whether sanctions against Russia – and Moscow's countersanctions – are dragging down activity further across the euro zone.

Still, as the analysts at RBC put it, it doesn’t really matter whether PMIs will be slightly up or down, because “the underlying pace of growth is fairly lackluster”.

Although PMI data represent the result of the purchasing managers’ survey and don’t always translate into output, they do help to spot the economic turning points. This spring the European PMIs were declining and although they are mostly above the critical 50 level, the economic picture for the euro area looks discouraging.

euro%20pmis.png


More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1621
 
MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

FOMC minutes: what to expect


FXBAZOOKA.com - The FOMC meeting minutes are due today at 18:00 GMT.

Analysts at Standard Chartered think that any hawkish surprise (and, consequently, the positive effect for USD) in the FOMC July minutes is likely to be limited – the hawks already had the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser’s dissent and the accompanying statement.

The Fed’s forward guidance is that there will be a “considerable time” between the end of QE and the first rate hike. Standard Chartered says that the key in the minutes will be whether the FOMC is considering revising it. In their view, the central bank won’t say so and this phrase will remain in its statement after the next FOMC meeting in September as well, because the Fed realizes that to an earlier rate hike would mean to disappoint the market players which enjoy cheep financing in the US.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect an overall dovish theme to persist, but warn that the Fed might be done with concerns about lower inflation – and this is a hawkish moment.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1622
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 20: American session


US_eng.jpg


Before the publication of minutes of meetings of the Fed's, index of the dollar dipped slightly with today's maximum 82.17. However, trades are in the green zone - the index adds about 0.17%.

Trading on the stock market opened slightly lower in the leading index. So, DJIA losing about 0.06%, while the S & P500 - 0.01%.

We remind you that the Fed minutes will be released today at 22:00 GMT.

Dollar strengthened against most world currencies. For example, EUR / USD pair dropped to the level of 1.3270, forming a new low of the year. Currency pair USD / CHF breaks above the 0.9100 figure, over which consolidation is currently going. USD / JPY has been restored to an important level 103.40 - daily uptrend will obviously continue. Surprisingly good indicators of industrial orders in the UK forced to recover a couple of GBP / USD, the rate of which today has jumped to around 1.6675. But at the beginning of the American session, the pair is consolidating in 1.6640.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1625
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 21: Asian session


Asia_eng.jpg


FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar is strong versus its peers as after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes traders increased bets the Fed will raise interest rates next year. Asian shares outside Japan fell for the first time in 9 days on lower Chinese data – MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slid 0.7%.

USD/JPY rose to the levels just below 104.00. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3240 area. GBP/USD slid to $1.6563.

Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI (50.3 vs. 51.5 expected) impacted the commodity currencies. The index came at its lowest level since April 2013. AUD/USD dipped to the $0.9235 support, testing the August lows. NZD/USD extends the decline, testing $0.8345 in Asia. XAU/USD fell to the 200-day MA ($1285).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1627
 
MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 21)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200 (large), $1.3260 (large), $1.3300 (large), $1.3340;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.35 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9250, $0.9290, $0.9350/60, $0.9375 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0850 (large) 1.0945;

EUR/GBP: 0.7925 (large) 0.7985 0.8000 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1628
 
MARKET NEWS
21 August 2014

Euro zone PMIs came out mixed


FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD managed to recover to $1.3278 on better-than-expected German PMI data (52.0 vs. 51.7 in manufacturing and 56.4 vs. 55.5 in services). Note though, that although German readings exceeded expectations, they still retreated from July levels both in manufacturing and service sector. French services figures were also stronger (51.1 vs. 50.3), though France’s manufacturing PMI declined from 47.8 to 46.5.

However, the readings for the entire euro area were weaker than forecasts. The region’s flash manufacturing PMI slid from 51.8 to 50.8. The EMU PMI Composite came at 52.8 vs. 53.4 expected confirming the slowing of the euro zone economy.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1629
 
MARKET NEWS
21 August 2014

GBP dipped on weak UK retail sales


FXBAZOOKA.com - GBP/USD dipped to $1.6570 after the UK retail sales report. Data showed consumption demand increased less than expected: 0.1% m/m and 2.6% y/y versus 0.4% m/m, and 3.0% y/y forecasted. Cable now holds slightly above the daily lows of $1.6563.

According to analysts at Scotiabank, GBP/USD looks for a test of the March 1.6460 low. All the technical studies warn for a downside risk.

gbpusddaily.png

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1630
 
MARKET NEWS

Aug. 21: American session


US_eng.jpg


Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



In general, the positive data on applications for unemployment benefits for the past week (298 thousand, 300 thousand vs.) did not become a reason for strengthening of the dollar, which began to lose about 0.05% at the opening session. A little later, at 18:00 UT is expected to appear the statistics of the real estate market (existing home sales), as well as an index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed data. Volatility in the markets at this time may become higher.

Traiding opened with a slight increase on the stock markets. Major indexes rised to 0.12%.

There are corrective movement in currency markets, after yesterday's growth of the dollar against world currencies. The EUR / USD pair grew to the level of 1.3270, forming a new low of 1.3240. Currency pair USD / CHF turned back to 0.9120 support, from which is going to resume its recovery. USD / JPY is consolidating just above 103.70 support. The pair GBP / USD is fixed under the figure of 1.6600, adjusting to the continuation of the downtrend.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1632
 
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