Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

September 11: Asian session

• Asian stocks traded in a cautious mode
• The US President Barack Obama vowed to fight Islamic State militants is Syria, allowing air strikes
• China's economy showed new signs of weakness on Thursday, as August consumer inflation unexpectedly fell to a 4-month low
• Australia suprised with strong employemnt data
• RBNZ left monetary policy unchanged

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market attention was glued to New Zealand and Australia tonight. As it was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left monetary policy unchanged, while Governor Wheeler ended with pulling the currency lower by dovish comments. NZD/USD fell to $0.8170. AUD/USD soared to $0.9210 on a much better than expected labor market data. Australia employment growth was nearly 10 times size of consensus forecast (+121K vs. 15K expected). Unemployment rate fell from 6.4% to 6.1%.

USD/JPY hit a fresh 6-year high of 107.02 in the session. EUR/USD consolidates around $1.2910, while GBP/USD - slightly above the $1.6200 mark.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1717

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

September, 11: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst


Index of the dollar has fallen to the level of 84.25 after the negative data on the labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 315 thousand last week, though there was an analyst forecast of decline to 300 thousand. We also recall you that the previous value of the indicator has an amount of 304 thousand.

Stock markets also opened in the red zone in anticipation of the performance report of the United States. Thus, DJIA lost about 0.35%, while the S & P500 - a little more than 0.20%.

A little later, at 23-00 UT there’s expected ECB President M.Dragi’s performance.

In currency markets, there is a weakening of the dollar observed. For example, EUR / USD is restored to the resistance at 1.2950 once again. The currency pair GBP / USD grew to around 1.6250 - this is the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, which can somehow cool bullish players. USD / CHF has dropped to 0.9340 support area. However,USD / JPY pair dropped to morning lows of 106.65 after the new extremum of 107.15.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1721

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 12: Asian session

FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors await a key set of Chinese data over the weekend and the Federal Reserve meeting on the next week. US will release retail sales data on Friday, forecasts are upbeat. Investors are becoming increasingly hawkish on the Fed. European Union announced increased EU sanctions on Russia on Friday.

US dollar extended growth versus the Australian dollar and Japanese yen. USD/JPY hit a new high of 107.40, while AUD/USD dropped to the 0.9050 support.

EUR/USD trades almost unchanged at $1.2920, while GBP/USD remains capped at $1.6275. NZD/USD strengthened to $0.8180.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1722

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key options expiring today (Sep. 12)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

• EURUSD 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2960-65, 1.3000
• GBPUSD 1.6175, 1.6310, 1.6330-40
• AUDUSD 0.9100, 0.9160, 0.9200
• USDCAD 1.0905, 1.0910, 1.0955-60, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1035, 1.1050
• NZDUSD 0.8275
• EURGBP 0.8050

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1723

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Sep. 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2940, Take profit 1.2788, Stop loss 1.3011

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 106.85, Take profit 108.45 (revised), Stop loss 105.99 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4255, Take profit 1.3890, Stop loss 1.4365

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 171.00, Take profit 173.95, Stop loss 172.70 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8400, Take profit 0.8052(revised), Stop loss 0.8230 (revised)

Trade ideas

GBP/USD: SELL LIMIT at 1.6280, Take profit 1.6052, Stop loss 1.6350

USD/CHF: BUY LIMIT at 0.9300/0.9283

AUD/USD: SELL higher

EUR/CHF: BUY LIMIT at 1.2085, Take profit 1.2155, Stop loss 1.2065

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Look to BUY

EUR/JPY: Look to BUY at 137.40/35

________________________________________________

*Strategists at Danske Bank use trailing stop orders (move together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2334

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sept. 12: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index has begun to strengthen rapidly and added about 0.10% by the American session opening, after the release of data on retail sales which had risen by 0.6%, corresponding to analysts expectations. Apart from that, new data on consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan are expected to appear a little later.

Stock trading have opened in the red. Major US indexes are losing 0.30%.

Currency markets have consolidated today, but by the session opening, the dollar has strengthened against most currencies. Thus, the EUR/USD pair has collapsed to the 1.2910 mark from the high of the day around 1.2950. The GBP/USD currency pair is sliding to the 1.6220 area. USD/CHF has recovered to the 0.9370 figure. In the meantime, USD/JPY is storming new highs around 107.35.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1726

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 15: Asian session

USD/JPY keeps trading above 107.00. Today is a bank holiday in Japan. Asian stocks fell after Chinese factory and retail data added to evidence a slowdown is deepening. MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 1%.

EUR/USD opened with a gap up at $1.2970, but then drifted lower. GBP/USD met resistance at $1.6275 and then drifted down by about 40 pips.

AUD/USD opened the week with a large bearish gap, falling below the $0.9000 figure and testing $0.8980. Downbeat Chinese figures increased pressure on the Australian currency. NZD/USD trades under bearish pressure, hitting $0.8120 in the session. Meanwhile, Gold price recovered from a yearly low on $1225.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1727

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Sep. 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2940, Take profit 1.2788, Stop loss 1.3011

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.6260, Take profit 1.6052, Stop loss 1.6345

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 106.85, Take profit 108.45 (revised), Stop loss 106.60 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8400, Take profit 0.8052 (revised), Stop loss 0.8230

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.2085, Take profit 1.2155, Stop loss 1.2065

Trade ideas

USD/CHF: BUY LIMIT at 0.9290, Take Profit 0.9437, Stop loss 0.9237

USD/CAD: BUY LIMIT at 1.1010, Take Profit 1.1188, Stop loss 1.0929

EUR/JPY: BUY LIMIT at 138.55, Take profit 140.09, Stop loss 138.20

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

*Strategists at Danske Bank use trailing stop orders (move together with the price)

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2340

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
15 September 2014

CHF: SNB may change policy

By Mark Jensen

The Swiss National Bank will meet on Thursday, Sep. 18. Some market players believe that the regulator will announce a negative deposit rate.

Swiss franc has recently risen to almost 2-year highs versus euro: last week EUR/CHF touched 1.2043 – remember that the SNB has pledged to keep the pair above 1.2000.

The problem is that the European Central Bank is on the verge of quantitative easing. Overnight rates in the euro area have dipped into negative territory, while Swiss overnight rates are above zero at 0.01%. This means that the rate differentials are in favor of CHF. In addition, franc was in demand as a safe haven. Obviously, the SNB isn’t pleased about the situation like this: the euro is likely to weaken, and if EUR/CHF falls to 1.2000 and attempts to go lower, the SNB will have to intervene.

According to Reuters, the SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan dropped broad hints when he said the bank was ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to defend the cap and could take further measures to ensure price stability. As the SNB’s benchmark rate is already near zero, the analysts say that the options for the central bank include lifting the minimal level for EUR/CHF from 1.20 to 1.25 or imposing negative deposit rates. the latter looks more likely at this stage. The pressure on the SNB is higher than before because the latest Swiss data shows economic growth slowing in Q2.

How to trade?

EUR/CHF recovered to the 1.2100 area on the speculation that the SNB will take steps to weaken franc and push this pair higher. However, analysts warn that unless the central bank makes a really big move the euro’s upward correction will be limited. Resistance is at 1.2150, 1.2188 (200-day MA) and 1.2235. If the SNB does nothing EUR/CHF will be vulnerable for further declines.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1728

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 15)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2945, $1.3000/05 (large), $1.3050 (large), $1.3075;

GBP/USD: $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6320;

USD/CHF: 0.9305 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9000 (large), $0.9030, $0.9160 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1070/80 (large), 1.1100;

NZD/USD: 0.8375 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7950, 0.7975 (large), 0.7980;

AUD/NZD: 1.1250 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1729

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
15 September 2014

OECD revised down economic forecasts

FXBAZOOKA.com - The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development revised down its 2014 economic forecasts for the most developped countries, referring to the increased geopolitical tensions and weak inflation in euro zone.

According to the renewed forecast, euro zone's economy will grow by only 0.8% this year, compared to the May forecast of 1.2%. The economists especially point to a slowdown in Germany, France and Italy. OECD strongly recommends ECB to to implement QE in order to avoid slipping in deflation.

The US and the UK economies tend to move in a right direction, OECD says. Need for the use of unconventional measures is coming to an end. However, forecasts have also been revised down from 2.6% to 2.1% and from 3.2% to 3.1% respectively. Japan's GDP will grow by 0.9% versus previously expected 1.2%, while China's estimate remains unchanged at 7.4%.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1730

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

The 15 th of September: The day of consolidation

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS


The Industrial production of the United States has fallen by 0.1% over the past month while analysts forecasted the increase to 0.3%. This information put pressure on the American dollar, which sank with today's high level of 83.53 to 83.40. However, the positive trend of the index is preserved: it added about 0.13% at the opening of the American session.

Stock markets were opened slightly down losing just over 0.10%.

Foreign exchange markets are consolidated. The quotation of the currency pair EUR / USD dropped to 1.2920 support level, but the bulls were trying to return to the highs. GBP / USD pair was trading at the bottom of today's range - 1.6230. As for USD / CHF, the pair had recovered to the level of 0.9370, but then fell to the support in the area of 0.9350. But USD / JPY was gradually decreasing to support the upper limit of the Ichimoku indicator to the 107th figure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1734

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

FBS: trading plan for Sep. 16

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON TUESDAY

AUD: RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (00:00 GMT), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (01:30 GMT)
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks (05:30 GMT)
GBP: CPI (08:30 GMT)
EUR: German & Euro Zone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment (09:00 GMT)
CAD: Manufacturing Sales (12:30 GMT), BOC Gov Poloz Speaks (16:45 GMT)
USD: PPI (12:30 GMT)

TRADE IDEAS

EUR/USD showed a series of higher lows. However, the bears are quite persistent, and the pair once again turned down from the 200-hour MA. Euro met resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4 and may test the lower Bollinger band at $1.2890. Below this level euro will be vulnerable for a slide to $1.2850 – this is our base scenario. Forecasts for the euro zone’s data due tomorrow are negative. A return above $1.2962 is needed to switch the outlook to bullish with $1.3015 in sight.

GBP/USD managed to close the last week’s gap, but faced resistance at $1.6275 on Monday. Market participants remain nervous ahead of the Scotland’s Independence referendum on Thursday. Don’t miss the inflation data on Tuesday: UK annualized CPI growth is forecasted to slow from 1.6% to 1.5%. Negative surprise could resume the GBP selloff. However, hawkish BOE monetary policy minutes on Wednesday could render some support to the currency.

USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the Friday’s 107.30 high. The BOJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech on Tuesday. However, this week trader’s attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday – disappointing tone of the Fed will trigger a strong bearish correction. Support lies at 106.60, 106.00 and 105.70.

AUD/USD opened today with a 30-pip gap down on poor data from China and Australia, but then moved higher after finding support in the $0.9000 area. Tomorrow Aussie will trade under impact of the RBA minutes. We view the downtrend as strong, but see some room for correction. Resistance is at $0.9060, $0.9100 ahead of $0.9180. The next downside target is at $0.8950.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2348

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: Trade ideas for September 16

Felipe Erazo

The EURUSD has found strong resistance at the level of 1.2979, where the 200 EMA (green line) is located. Now, this pair is trying to perform a bearish retracement, so currently, the EURUSD has made a rebound above the level of 1.2919, where is located the 61.8 Fibo level.

If the EURUSD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.2919, the next target would be the support level of 1.2883, which would mean a bearish consolidation in the medium term for this pair. However, if the EURUSD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.2956, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.2979. The RSI indicator stays in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations: Place buy orders if the EURUSD does a rebound at the support level of 1.2931 with take profit at 1.2979.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2349

 

[Steta77]

What I liked most about FBS wascustomized approach to every client, high quality of provided services, opportunity to check one’s trading strategy not risking money

I learnt about FBS fromthe Internet, my acquaintances’ recommendations

I am completely satisfied with the services quality.

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
16 September 2014

USD: The day of consolidation

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS

The Industrial production of the United States has fallen by 0.1% over the past month while analysts forecasted the increase to 0.3%. This information put pressure on the American dollar, which sank with today's high level of 83.53 to 83.40. However, the positive trend of the index is preserved: it added about 0.13% at the opening of the American session.

Stock markets were opened slightly down losing just over 0.10%.

Foreign exchange markets are consolidated. The quotation of the currency pair EUR / USD dropped to 1.2920 support level, but the bulls were trying to return to the highs. GBP / USD pair was trading at the bottom of today's range - 1.6230. As for USD / CHF, the pair had recovered to the level of 0.9370, but then fell to the support in the area of 0.9350. But USD / JPY was gradually decreasing to support the upper limit of the Ichimoku indicator to the 107th figure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1734

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Sep. 17

Trade ideas

Tomorrow will be a volatile day as the Federal Reserve meets to set policy. There’s the risk for USD to weaken if the Fed doesn’t sound more hawkish.

EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of big events later this week (FOMC tomorrow and the ECB’s TLTRO on Thursday). The Ichimoku Cloud keeps providing resistance at H4. The pair’s trading range has been getting narrower and narrower. We have a sell stop at $1.2900 targeting $1.2810. If the FOMC meeting activates a short squeeze, we’d put a buy stop at $1.3020 targeting $1.3100. Don’t forget that news trading may be a risky business.

GBP/USD is expected to have a volatile day tomorrow. Unemployment in the UK is expected to contract, while the average earning index – to increase. Meanwhile, claimant count contraction is forecasted to slow down. Don’t miss the BOE meeting minutes – hawkish tone will support the sterling. If GBP/USD overcomes $1.6300, it will test $1.6450.

For AUD/USD we have in mind long from $0.9070 to $0.9110. If Aussie fails to overcome $0.9070 will be selling targeting levels back at $0.9000. USD/CHF may be vulnerable for $0.9260. USD/JPY may correct towards 106.00.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON WEDNESDAY

GBP: Unemployment data, MPC meeting minutes (08:30 GMT)

EUR: Final CPI (09:00 GMT)

USD: Core CPI (12:30 GMT), FOMC Statement & Economic Projections (18:00 GMT), FOMC Press Conference (18:00 GMT)

NZD: GDP (22:45 GMT)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2358

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Sep. 17: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2950 (large), $1.3000 (large), $1.3050 (large), $1.3120, $1.3180, $1.3325 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6495, $1.6500 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.00 (large), 105.75, 106.75;

AUD/USD: $0.9100 (large), $0.9150, $0.9290;

USD/CAD: 1.0760, 1.0775, 1.0875, 1.0880, 1.0910, 1.0950, 1.0980 (large), 1.1000 (large), 1.1030 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7943, 0.7980, 0.8020, 0.8100;

EUR/CHF: 1.2090, 1.2100;

EUR/JPY: 137.15, 138.25, 138.30.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1736

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
17 September 2014

BNP Paribas: FOMC will support USD

Analysts at BNP Paribas think that the Fed will shift to a more hawkish direction and make more optimistic comments on the economy. They expect the Fed’s median forecast for the Fed funds rate to rise to 1.25% from 1.13% for end-2015 and to 2.75% from 2.50% for end-2016. At the same time, the specialists think that the Fed will stop short of altering the forward guidance and its reference to the considerable period between the end of QE and the start of rate hikes.

BNPP recommends buying USD on the dips and maintains a short position on EUR/USD from $1.2940 targeting $1.2500.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1739

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
17 September 2014

GBP: unemployment rate falls to 6.2%

FXBAZOOKA.com - Great Britain released strong labor market data on Wednesday with unemployment rate falling from 6.4% to 6.2%, average earnings index rising by 0.6% and clamant count contracting by 37.2K. The readings overcame the market consensus.

However, GBP didn't push much higher as the release coincided with rather bearish MPC meeting minutes.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1740