Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 22: Asian session

Asian shares rose after reports from US housing to manufacturing showed that American economy is strengthening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2%. US dollar hovered just below its 2014 peak against a basket of major currencies with bulls turning cautious ahead of a speech by the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen.

USD/JPY has stopped rising just below 104.00. EUR/USD edged up to $1.3290. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.6580 area.

Commodity currencies found some support on Thursday. AUD/USD extended the upside to $0.9320 following the yesterday’s quick dip to $0.9235. NZD/USD rose to $0.8410. Gold price consolidates slightly above the yesterday’s low of $1272.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1633

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 22: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index has slightly decreased before the speech of Chair of FRB Board of Governors J. Yellen, to 82.20, from today's high of 82.30, but the positive trend is still observed. We would like to remind that a little later, at 22:30 GMT+3, they expect a speech of ECB President M. Dragi which may affect the course of trading as well.

Stock markets are in the red zone today: DJIA is losing about 0.11%, S&P500 - 0.15%.

Currency markets are consolidating at the extremes. The EUR/USD was sliding to the 1.3255 level, but returned to the 1.3270 mark at the session opening. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the 1.6570-1.6590 range. Bears may increase the pressure in the near future. USD/CHF has tested the 0.9100 figure, but then rebounded to 0.9120. The USD/JPY currency pair has adjusted to the 103.50 mark, when the bullish sentiment prevailed on the market. At the moment, the pair is returning to the highs around 103.80.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1634

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 25: Asian session

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid low trading volume as investors weighed comments from central bank leaders for clues to monetary policy ahead of conflict negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 104.25. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3200 and then tested $1.3185. Euro fell as Mario Draghi’s comments raised prospects of more policy easing as early as next week. GBP/USD opened with a gap down at $1.6546 and the recovered to Friday’s lows in the $1.6565 area. There’s a bank holiday in the UK today.

AUD/USD recovered to $0.9310 after a quick dip to $0.9280 in early Asia. NZD/USD dropped by 60 pips, finding some support around $0.8330. Increased demand for AUD/NZD pressured the overall kiwi demand – the cross renewed the 2014 highs today. New Zealand election on September 20 is coming in focus.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1635

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 25)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3300 (large), $1.3320/30, $1.3340 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6640, $1.6700;

USD/JPY: 103.35 (large), 103.50 (large), 104.00 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9275, $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0925, 1.0975, 1.1010;

EUR/CHF: 1.2100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1636

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
25 August 2014

CFTC: USD longs at July 2013 highs

FXBAZOOKA.com - According to the latest CFTC report, released on Aug. 22, large speculators increased their net USD longs from $27.00 billion on Aug. 12 to $30.4 billion on Aug. 19 (+$3.4 billion). The overall US dollar bullish position is now at the highest level since June 4 2013. The calculation considers the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week large speculators raised demand for CHF and AUD and decreased - for EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD and NZD.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1637

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
25 August 2014

Jackson Hole and its message

At the end of the last week global central bankers led by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen met in Jackson Hole. Even it’s clear that though monetary policies in the advanced economies are set to diverge, the policymakers underlined that they focus on the labor market conditions. All agreed that stronger hiring and wages are still needed to drive demand.

Federal Reserve

Yellen said while US hiring has improved and the debate at the Fed is shifting toward when “we should begin dialing back our extraordinary accommodation,” there is still a “significant” underuse of the workforce, and the labor market has yet to fully recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Yellen argued that the Fed must assess the health of the job market on more indicators than just the unemployment rate citing the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index, which includes 19 data points. The speeches of the other FOMC members showed that opinions of the FOMC members are divided: Bullard, George and Plosser spoke in favor of an earlier rate hike, while Lockhart and Williams don’t want to hurry.

Bank of England

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent suggested rate increases there will be gradual as he said officials “have tried to communicate that the path of interest rates that’s likely to be necessary to meet our mandate is going to be materially different” than in the past. Broadbent used the conference to argue the financial crisis has changed the economic landscape and central banks must now consult labor-market data to better assess inflation.

European Central Bank

According to President Mario Draghi, the ECB is ready to further adjust its policy stance. Draghi at last admitted inflation expectations declined. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence his current package of policies would work and urged governments to step up with easier fiscal policies where possible.

Bank of Japan

Governor Kuroda said that he will keep policy easy until price stability is achieved and would shift tack if inflation softens. While Japanese labor market is “showing significant improvement,” there are still “important challenges to be addressed” in the form of weak wage growth and a reliance on part-time work. Japan may consider “utilization of foreign workers” to address potential labor force shortages in the future.

Bank of Canada

Governor Stephen Poloz said that his country’s labor market isn’t creating the full-time jobs and income that could be expected in a recovery, handing him scope to keep interest rates near historic lows.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1638

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 25: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst


Index of the dollar today jumped to the level of 82.65, keeping the reaction to Friday's speech of Fed Dzh.Yellen. At the beginning of the American session, index adds about 0.24%.

Stock markets opened in the positive positions, renewing highs due to gepapa: DJIA adds about 0.55%, while the S & P500 - about 0.46%.

The currency pair EUR / USD remains under pressure from the bears, trading under the figure of 1.3200. GBP / USD today corrected to 1.6600, but in the opening of the session fell to 1.6580. USD / CHF has issued a new yearly high 0.9177 this morning, and then corrected to 0.9150 support. Currency pair USD / JPY is struggling to stay above the figure of 104.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1640

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 26: Asian session

Asian shares swung between gains and losses on Tuesday. On the one hand, investors increasingly expect the ECB to expand liquidity as soon as next week. The mood in the market was supported by the S&P 500, which briefly topped the 2,000 mark for the first time in history on Monday. On the other hand, market players sought haven assets before the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet today.

USD/JPY declined to 103.74. Yen rose as technical indicators signaled the currency’s recent decline was too rapid. AUD/USD dipped to $0.9270. NZD/USD dipped to $0.8309. New Zealand’s dollar fell to the lowest in six months after the nation’s trade balance slipped into deficit.

EUR/USD keeps trading in the $1.3200 area. German 10-year yields hit a record low of 0.926%, before pulling back to 0.95%. GBP/USD edged up to the levels just below $1.6600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1641

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 26)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3185, $1.3250, $1.3300;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.25;

AUD/USD: 0.9225 (large), 0.9250, 0.9300 (large), 0.9325 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0900 (large), 1.0985/1.1000;

NZD/USD: 0.8350, 0.8400;

EUR/GBP: 0.7915, 0.7970 (large), 0.7980, 0.8050;

EUR/JPY: 138.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1642

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
26 August 2014

French government was dissolved

The French government was dissolved on Monday amid turmoil among top ministers.

It happened as from Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg called for a major reorientation of economic policy in a country where growth has stalled and unemployment remains high. Montebourg’s comments were seen as a challenge to the authority of President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Hollande asked Valls to form a new government, which will be announced on Tuesday.

Francois Hollande has the record low approval ratings of any French President. Valls’ popularity has also declined in recent opinion polls.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1643

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
26 August 2014

US data: preview

Analysts at RBS expect a surge in the US durable goods orders (due today at 12:30 GMT). The specialists say that the reason for this is a temporary surge in civilian aircraft orders. They expect a 9.0% m/m gain of the headline reading in July, but warn that the core orders may be flat dampening the positive impact. In addition, RBS expects that there will be a modest decline in the US confidence index (14:00 GMT) because of the slightly higher unemployment rate.

Rabobank points out that the expectations for durable goods are high, but this indicators used to disappoint the market so far.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1644

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 26: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

American trading session has opened relatively calmly today. US dollar index has decreased slightly (to -0.10%) after release of quite weak data on orders for durable goods (-0.8%, instead of the forecast 0.5%).

Stock markets are showing a slight increase. DJIA index is adding about 0.21%, S&P500 - 0.17%.

Currency markets are consolidating on yesterday's levels. Thus, the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.3200 figure. The GBP/USD pair has once again come up to 1.6600, but the bulls are having difficulty breaking through the level. USD/CHF is recovering to the 0.9160 resistance and the bulls have an opportunity to resume the uptrend. Bearish pressure is as well being felt on the USD/JPY currency pair which has remained under the 104.00 figure today.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1647

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

The 26th of August: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company


Today the American trading session was opened relatively quietly. The US dollar index fell slightly down ( to -0.10%) after publishing generally weak information about orders for durable goods (-0.8% instead of the forecasting 0.5%).

Stock markets show a slight runup. DJIA index adds about 0.21% and S & P500 - 0.17%.

Currency markets are consolidated on yesterday's levels. Thus, the pair EUR / USD is still trading below 1.3200 figure. As to the currency pair GBP / USD, it has increased to 1.6600 oce again, however bulls have difficulties with the handle violation. USD / CHF has restored the resistance level of 0.9160 and bulls are able to resume the uptrend. Though the bearish pressure is still felt in the case of the pair USD / JPY, that was traded under the figure of 104.00 that day.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1648

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Aug. 27: Asian session

Asian stocks rose, joining a global rally that’s driven world equity values to a record, and bond risk retreated after data signaled a stronger US economy and Russia’s president hailed as “positive” talks over Ukraine.

USD/JPY is trading in the 104.00 area. EUR/USD edged down to $1.3152. GBP/USD is trading close to the recent lows in the $1.6540 area.

Kiwi dollar was the biggest mover in the session: NZD/USD jumped by 50 pips to $0.8375, extending the recovery from $0.8300 support. The currency was supported by good news from the milk giant Fonterra. AUD/USD recovered to $0.9320 despite the downbeat data. Australia Construction Work Done fell by 1.2% in Q2 vs. -0.3% expected.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1649

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 27)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200 (large), $1.3215, $1.3300 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6500 (large), $1.6600;

AUD/USD: $0.9220, $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9305;

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1025 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8365, $0.8425 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7940/50, 0.8000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1650

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
27 August 2014

BoA: euro zone's inflation will decline

Euro zone’s August inflation data are due on Friday at 09:00 GMT.

Analysts Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect the euro zone’s inflation to slide in August because of the weaker-than-forecast oil prices. In their view, inflation should bottom in August and account to 0.4% in September rising slowly until the year-end, but the likelihood of further downside still appears high. The specialists consider worrisome the fact that the inflation expectations have declined.

BoA thinks that the September meeting may be too early for the ECB to recognize heightened risks to the inflation outlook, but, if risks persist and some materialize as they expect, it will not be able to avoid it. Ultimately, the ECB will be forced to act more before June next year, but it is uncertain whether it will be too little, too late..

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1651

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

August 28: Asian session

Asian shares declined as a rising yen dragged Japanese stocks lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2%. USD/JPY declined to 103.70.

The US dollar weakened before the US publishes today a second estimate for GDP, which probably rose an annualized 3.9% in Q2 vs. 4.0% initial reading. EUR/USD rose to $.3216. GBP/USD went up to $1.6600.

AUD/USD extended the upside, testing $0.9370 in the Asian session. Australia private capital expenditure figure surprised the markets to the upside. CapEx unexpectedly increased by 1.1% in Q2 (forecast: -0.6%, Q1: -2.5%). However, the details of the report (plant equipment) are not so optimistic and made many economists revise down GDP prospects. NZD/USD is currently testing the $0.8400 mark to the upside. RBNZ disclosed its currency reserves data: the central bank sold 2 million NZ dollars in July.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1653

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 28)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200 $1.3250/55;

USD/JPY: 103.50 (large), 104.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9290 (large), $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0910/15 (large), 1.0940, 1.0965, 1.1000/25 (large);

EUR/JPY: 136.75.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1654

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

Australian economy’s in trouble?

FXBAZOOKA.com - Australia released today stronger than expected business investment data for Q2: private capital expenditure rose by 1.1% vs. an expected decline by 0.6%.

Despite this seemingly good news, spending on equipment, plant and machinery disappointed, and this is the only component of capital expenditure that feeds directly into second-quarter GDP data.

This made many economists reduce their forecasts for Australian economic growth. Private sector forecasts place GDP growth in the June quarter in a range from 0-0.5%. Westpac also revised down its forecasts for Australia’s economic growth in Q2 from 0.4% to 0.3%. The thing that worries the experts greatly is that in the first 3 month of the year Australia’s economy was boosted by strong exports, while now there’s a real risk that correction in net exports could result in a negative quarterly GDP result.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1655

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

France: the new government

The new French cabinet, dubbed Valls II, started working on Wednesday. The reshuffled government is enforced with the loyal supporters of Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

Emmanuel Macron, a former banker and Hollande’s top economic adviser, was appointed as new economy minister replacing Arnaud Montebourg, who harshly criticized the policy of austerity measures and called for a change in the nation’s economic course.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1656