EUR/USD: negative dynamics of the pair remains
11/12/2019
Eurodollar could not develop an upward trend above the marks reached last month near the resistance level of 1.1180.
The likelihood of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China has again declined, and market participants are waiting for Donald Trump to decide to impose 25% duties on the import of European cars and components for their assembly into the United States.
Against the background of the ongoing US trade conflict with China, the introduction of these duties would become a significant aggravation of the global trade situation and would make an additional contribution to the slowdown of the global economy.
In this situation, the role of the dollar as a defensive asset again comes to the fore. The US economy appears more resilient amid a general slowdown in the global economy. In the 1st quarter of 2019, US GDP growth amounted to 3.1% (in annual terms), in the 2nd - 2%, in the 3rd quarter - 1.9%.
Now market participants will follow the publication on Thursday (at 07:00 and 10:00 GMT) of GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone.
German GDP growth is expected to slow again (-0.1% after a similar fall in the 2nd quarter). An updated estimate of the Eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter suggests an increase of 0.2% (+1.1% in annual terms). Despite the positive data, this is significantly lower than the growth rate of the American economy.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index continues to grow. At the beginning of the European session, DXY dollar index futures were trading at 98.17, 20 pips above the opening price earlier this month.
The growing yield of US government bonds is also supporting the dollar.
So, the yield on 10-year US bonds is 1.938% at the time of writing, versus 1.691% at the beginning of the month.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure in the medium term.
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
Below the resistance level of 1.1070 (EMA200 on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts, EMA50 on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1070, 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180
Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
11/12/2019
Eurodollar could not develop an upward trend above the marks reached last month near the resistance level of 1.1180.
The likelihood of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China has again declined, and market participants are waiting for Donald Trump to decide to impose 25% duties on the import of European cars and components for their assembly into the United States.
Against the background of the ongoing US trade conflict with China, the introduction of these duties would become a significant aggravation of the global trade situation and would make an additional contribution to the slowdown of the global economy.
In this situation, the role of the dollar as a defensive asset again comes to the fore. The US economy appears more resilient amid a general slowdown in the global economy. In the 1st quarter of 2019, US GDP growth amounted to 3.1% (in annual terms), in the 2nd - 2%, in the 3rd quarter - 1.9%.
Now market participants will follow the publication on Thursday (at 07:00 and 10:00 GMT) of GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone.
German GDP growth is expected to slow again (-0.1% after a similar fall in the 2nd quarter). An updated estimate of the Eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter suggests an increase of 0.2% (+1.1% in annual terms). Despite the positive data, this is significantly lower than the growth rate of the American economy.
Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index continues to grow. At the beginning of the European session, DXY dollar index futures were trading at 98.17, 20 pips above the opening price earlier this month.
The growing yield of US government bonds is also supporting the dollar.
So, the yield on 10-year US bonds is 1.938% at the time of writing, versus 1.691% at the beginning of the month.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure in the medium term.
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
Below the resistance level of 1.1070 (EMA200 on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts, EMA50 on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1070, 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180
Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com