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EUR/USD: negative dynamics of the pair remains

11/12/2019


Eurodollar could not develop an upward trend above the marks reached last month near the resistance level of 1.1180.

The likelihood of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China has again declined, and market participants are waiting for Donald Trump to decide to impose 25% duties on the import of European cars and components for their assembly into the United States.

Against the background of the ongoing US trade conflict with China, the introduction of these duties would become a significant aggravation of the global trade situation and would make an additional contribution to the slowdown of the global economy.

In this situation, the role of the dollar as a defensive asset again comes to the fore. The US economy appears more resilient amid a general slowdown in the global economy. In the 1st quarter of 2019, US GDP growth amounted to 3.1% (in annual terms), in the 2nd - 2%, in the 3rd quarter - 1.9%.

Now market participants will follow the publication on Thursday (at 07:00 and 10:00 GMT) of GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone.

German GDP growth is expected to slow again (-0.1% after a similar fall in the 2nd quarter). An updated estimate of the Eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter suggests an increase of 0.2% (+1.1% in annual terms). Despite the positive data, this is significantly lower than the growth rate of the American economy.

Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index continues to grow. At the beginning of the European session, DXY dollar index futures were trading at 98.17, 20 pips above the opening price earlier this month.

The growing yield of US government bonds is also supporting the dollar.

So, the yield on 10-year US bonds is 1.938% at the time of writing, versus 1.691% at the beginning of the month.

Thus, the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure in the medium term.

In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.

Below the resistance level of 1.1070 (EMA200 on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts, EMA50 on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850

Resistance Levels: 1.1070, 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850

Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1135, 1.1180

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: until December 12, trading in the range is most likely

11/13/2019


As the UK National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, consumer prices rose 1.5% (on an annualized basis) in October after rising 1.7% in September. This represents the lowest annual increase in consumer prices since November 2016.

According to other data presented earlier in the week, the volume of industrial production in the country in September fell by -0.3% (-1.4% in annual terms), production in the UK manufacturing industry also decreased in September (-0.4% m/m, -1.8% y/y), worse than economists forecast.

However, the British economy has so far managed to avoid a recession. UK GDP in the 3rd quarter grew by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter after a decrease of 0.2% in the 2nd quarter. At the same time, annual GDP growth amounted to +1.0%, which is the lowest indicator since the 1st quarter of 2010.

The data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit and a slowdown in global economic activity have a chilling effect on the growth of the British economy despite the fact that the likelihood of a hard Brexit scenario has declined.

At the same time, leaders of the Bank of England last week signaled that they could raise interest rates a little in the coming years if the uncertainty surrounding Brexit weakened and global economic growth recovered.

This is a positive factor for the pound. Bank of England executives believe that if after the December elections the parliament approves the agreement reached by the Prime Minister on Brexit, then in the next few years the economy will grow slowly, but steadily, supporting inflationary pressures.

Recent polls show a significant gap between conservatives and the opposition Labor Party ahead of the December 12 election. A clear majority in parliament will allow Johnson to break the legislative impasse and pull Britain out of the EU.

Thus, there is currently no reason to significantly reduce the pound.

If the Conservative Party gains a parliamentary majority following the election results, and lawmakers then approve the Brexit plan proposed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, then this is likely to be followed by a strengthening of the British pound.

However, until December 12, the GBP / USD pair is likely to remain in the current range between the local levels of support 1.2765 and resistance 1.3000.

Breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3000 may cause further growth of GBP / USD.

Nevertheless, below resistance levels 1.3100 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) GBP / USD global bearish trend remains valid.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2665, the aim of the reduction will be the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0%).

Support Levels: 1.2765, 1.2665, 1.2620, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2755. Stop-Loss 1.2915. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2665, 1.2620, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2915. Stop-Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

11/14/2019


Australia's labor market situation worsened last month. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in Australia in October increased by 0.1% to 5.3%, while the number of jobs in Australia fell this month by 19,000 (the forecast assumed an increase of 17,000).

Another negative factor for AUD was the weaker macro statistics from China, which is Australia's largest trade and economic partner, published during the Asian session. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production in China grew by 4.7% in October after rising by 5.8% in September (forecast was +5.2%). The data indicate a worsening of China's problems while the country's government is trying to regulate trade relations with the United States.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the US and China have stalled on the issue of purchases of US agricultural products.

RBA may again lower rates at the last meeting of the year on December 3.

"Given the events in the world and evidence of the availability of free resources in the Australian economy, it would be reasonable to expect that Australia would need a long period of low interest rates to achieve full employment and inflation target", said RBA managing director Philip Lowe in a statement following the meeting Bank in November. He reiterated that the central bank was prepared to lower rates "if necessary".

AUD / USD broke through the support levels of 0.6837 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6830 (lows of June 2019 and 2016) and reached the level of 0.6782 by the time this article was published, remaining in a long-term downtrend.

In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (lows of 2019), 0.6600, 06570 (the lower line of the downward channel on the weekly chart).

In any case, the possible correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6890 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.6935 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

A negative trend prevails. Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6830, 0.6837, 0.6855, 0.6890, 0.6935



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market, Sell Limit 0.6830, 0.6835. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6890, 0.6935

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: short positions are preferred

11/15/2019


A report released on Thursday by the US Department of Energy indicated another increase in US oil reserves (+2.219 million barrels, with a forecast of +1.649 million barrels). US oil inventories rose to 449 million barrels and are still 3% above the 5-year average for this time of year. The EIA also reported an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories by 1.9 million barrels and an increase in US oil production by 200,000 barrels per day, to a new record high of 12.8 million barrels per day.

The report indicates that US oil reserves continue to grow. This is the eighth consecutive week of oil reserves growth.

Despite the negative data for oil quotes, the optimism of the oil market participants, which was associated with expectations of a trade agreement between the US and China, contributed to an increase in oil prices in the last 2 months.

As announced earlier this month, the Ministry of Commerce of China, the parties agreed to abolish duties at the same time and in equal amounts if a trade agreement of the first phase is signed.

Oil demand also grew thanks to growth in the global and US stock markets.

All three major US stock indexes hit record highs thanks to a robust US labor market, hopes for a US-China trade dispute and a successful corporate reporting season.

Nevertheless, trade disagreements between the US and China continue despite oral agreements that gave hope for a delay in the introduction of new duties, while US oil reserves are growing with rising production levels.

These are negative factors for oil quotes.

Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs in the USA, which will be presented at 18:00 (GMT), will be in the focus of attention of oil market participants on Friday. It will probably indicate a further slowdown in drilling operations in the United States, as the relatively low oil prices force some shale oil producers to temporarily slow down.

Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

Nevertheless, it is still premature to talk about a change in the bearish trend of oil to bullish.

The price could not develop an upward trend above 63.30. Above it, there is a key resistance level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and a Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel).

And while the price is trading in the zone below this resistance level, short positions look preferable, which speaks in favor of resuming sales when local correction levels of resistance will be reached.

The breakdown of the support level of 61.45 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) will mean the resumption of the global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50% and the middle of the downward channel on the daily chart).

Support Levels: 61.45, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 62.20, 62.75, 63.30, 63.90



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market, Sell Limit 62.75, 63.30, 63.90. Stop-Loss 64.10. Take-Profit 61.45, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 64.10. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 68.00, 69.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
DJIA: Current Dynamics

11/18/2019


US stock indexes continue to grow and break new records, updating absolute highs.

At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the S&P 500 is trading near the 3122.0 mark, and the Nasdaq100 is near the 8330.0 mark. Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through the resistance level of 28000.0, trading at the time of publication of the article near the mark of 28050.00.

Investor enthusiasm stems from expectations of a trade agreement between the US and China. Investors continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations. The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices.

The Fed’s propensity to maintain soft policy, as well as a revival of economic activity in the US, which is exceeded by expectations for GDP data for the 3rd quarter and the improvement of the American labor market in October, according to data presented at the beginning of the month, are also of positive importance for American stock indices.

In an alternative scenario, the signal for DJIA sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 27700.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal of the decline is located at the support level of 27250.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

In case of further decline, the targets will be the key support levels 26600.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 26400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 26400.0 may provoke a further decrease to support levels of 25270.0 (August lows), an important support level of 25050.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 24600.0 (lows of June 2019).

Nevertheless, the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices remains. Long positions by DJIA are preferred.

On Wednesday (at 19:00 GMT) the minutes of the October meeting of the Fed will be published, which may cause increased volatility in the financial markets if the protocol texts contain unexpected information regarding the prospects for monetary policy or the state of the US economy.

Support Levels: 28000.0, 27700.0, 27400.0, 27250.0, 26900.0, 26600.0, 26400.0

Resistance Levels: 28100.0



Trading Scenarios


Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 27680.0. Take-Profit 28100.0, 28500, 29000.0

Sell Stop 27680.0. Stop-Loss 28040.0. Take-Profit 27400.0, 27250.0, 26900.0, 26600.0, 26400.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
NZD/USD: after the meeting of the RBNZ

19/11/2019


In the period after 14:00 (GMT), data from the milk auction will be published. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index prepared by Global Dairy Trade came out with a value of +3.7% (against the forecast of +1.9% and an increase of 0.5% in the previous 2-week period). A significant part of New Zealand exports is dairy products, primarily milk powder. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of export foreign currency earnings.

According to the forecast, it is expected that prices for dairy products rose again in the previous 2 weeks, and the price index will come out with a value of +1.6%. If the data coincides with the forecast or is better than it, then the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains vulnerable after weak data on US industrial production came out Friday, as well as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell met on Monday to discuss economic issues, including the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Trump later said after a 30-minute meeting with Powell that he had protested that the Fed’s rate was still too high compared to the interest rates of competing countries. In his opinion, the interest rate in the United States should be lower than in these countries.

The New Zealand dollar resumed growth after last week the RBNZ unexpectedly did not change its policy and left the interest rate at 1.0%.

At the beginning of the European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6410, 0.6420, continuing corrective growth in the upward channel on the daily chart. The upper boundary of this channel runs near the 0.6520 and EMA200 level on the daily chart. The upward correction of NZD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6465 (EMA144), 06520 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

A breakdown of the support level of 0.6385 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume sales of NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.

Support Levels: 0.6390, 0.6385, 0.6372, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6435, 0.6465, 0.6520



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6380. Stop-Loss 0.6425. Sell Limit 0.6465, 0.6520. Stop-Loss 0.6550. Take-Profit 0.6372, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6425. Stop-Loss 0.6380. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6465, 0.6520

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: Current Dynamics

11/20/2019


In the first ten days of October, the USD / CAD pair broke through an important support level (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), which at that time passed through the 1.3230 mark and reached a local minimum near the 1.3042 mark by the end of October.

Nevertheless, there was no further decline of USD / CAD, and after the meeting of the Bank of Canada and the Fed, at which the Fed leaders announced the suspension of the rate reduction cycle, the US dollar began to strengthen, including in the USD / CAD pair.

The long-term positive dynamics of the US dollar and, accordingly, the USD / CAD pair, which continues to trade above the key and long-term support level of 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), remains.

At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading above 1.3300 mark, developing an upward trend.

While USD / CAD is trading in the zone above the support level of 1.3227 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), you should look for the opportunity to enter long positions.

A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 1.3227. In this case, the reduction targets will be the support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.

From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of consumer price indices in Canada, as well as weekly data on oil reserves in the USA (at 15:30 GMT). Forecast for October: the consumer price index will come out with a value of +1.9% (in annual terms). Core CPI is also expected to increase by +1.9% in October. Data better than expected and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar. If the data for October is worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect CAD.

Also, CAD may be negatively affected by the publication of US Department of Energy data on oil reserves, which are expected to rise again last week (+1.1 million barrels).

Pessimism over US-China trade relations is forcing investors to give up risk by raising demand for safe assets and the dollar, as well as putting pressure on commodity goods prices and commodity currencies, such as CAD.

Oil prices are falling, as the stalled US-China trade negotiations causes worry about demand prospects. The overall decline in oil prices this week was already 4.7%.

As Carolyn Wilkins, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, said on Tuesday, “the risks for global GDP growth have intensified”, and “the uncertainty surrounding foreign trade remains heightened”. “We cannot afford to lose our vigilance”, she said, “especially when it comes to recession”. The next meeting of the Bank of Canada on the issue of monetary policy is scheduled for December 4.

Volatility growth in the financial market today is also expected at 19:00 (GMT), when the minutes from the October meeting of the Fed will be published, especially if they contain unexpected information regarding the issue of monetary policy of the US central bank.

Support Levels: 1.3300, 1.3270, 1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Buy Stop 1.3320. Buy Limit 1.3270. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: the Fed took a wait and see position

11/21/2019


The minutes published on Wednesday from the Fed meeting in October confirmed the central bank’s leadership’s attitude to take a wait-and-see attitude to determine if the economy will need additional stimulus in the coming months.

"Most participants decided that monetary policy after lowering rates by a quarter percentage point at this meeting will be precisely tuned to maintain prospects for moderate economic growth, a strong labor market", the minutes said.

The probability of the next one reduction in rates by the middle of next year, according to the CME Group, is about 50%.

However, the dollar is falling on Thursday. At the start of today's European session, the DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 6 pips below today's open price and 13 pips below open price earlier this week.

Now, participants in the financial market will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of the minutes from the ECB meeting in October. If the protocols contain unexpected statements or new information regarding the prospects of monetary policy, this could lead to a surge in volatility in trading on the euro and on the European stock market.

In October, the ECB did not change its monetary policy and announced no new measures. At the same time, among the Governing Council of the ECB, voices of opponents of the current incentive policy are increasingly heard.

The next meeting of the ECB on monetary policy will be held on December 12, and any changes in the mood of the ECB leaders and their opinion on the current monetary policy of the central bank may lead to increased volatility in the financial markets, especially for the euro and EUR / USD.

Currently, EUR / USD is developing an upward trend, trading above short-term support levels of 1.1065 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.1060 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Nevertheless, EUR / USD growth is above key resistance levels of 1.1130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1175 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is unlikely.

In general, the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD remains. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1060 will be a signal for the resumption of sales of EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.1065, 1.1060, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1110, 1.1130, 1.1175



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1050. Stop-Loss 1.1110. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850

Buy Stop 1.1095. Stop-Loss 1.1050. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1130, 1.1175

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: near key resistance levels

11/22/2019


Against the backdrop of investor optimism regarding the imminent conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China, Brent crude prices rose in the past 2 months, exceeding $64.00 per barrel last Thursday. Nevertheless, the price has not yet been able to develop an upward trend above this mark, near which strong resistance levels 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) are located.

Currently, Brent crude is trading in the zone of these resistance levels, from which either a rebound or consolidation is possible. For further price movement in one direction or another, new drivers are needed. They may be trade negotiations between the US and China and the OPEC meeting in December.

At the same time, OPEC’s decision to reduce oil production was mainly taken into account in prices, the level of oil production in the United States remains high, and there is no tangible progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. These factors indicate that further growth in oil prices will be limited.

On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 674 units at the moment (from 800 units at the beginning of June and 742 units at the beginning of September). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

Nevertheless, to say that optimism of investors dominates the oil market is hardly appropriate. The global bearish trend in oil prices remains in force. Brent oil price decline into the zone below 61.80 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) will mean the resumption of a global downtrend with support at 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level 50%).

The first important signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels 63.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 62.45 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

In an alternative scenario, the resumption of growth and the breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.00 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to resistance levels of 66.10, 67.50.

Further price increases are unlikely.

Support Levels: 63.60, 63.00, 62.45, 61.80, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 64.00, 65.10, 67.50



Trading recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 64.30. Take-Profit 63.00, 62.45, 61.80, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 64.30. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: the euro is vulnerable against the dollar

11/25/2019


Last Friday, the publication of positive US macro data for November supported the dollar.

At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading at 98.19, 29 pips higher than the closing price last Thursday.

The growth of PMIs for purchasing managers for the manufacturing and service sectors, as well as the consumer sentiment index also triggered a decline in demand for defensive assets - gold and government bonds, increasing the tendency of investors to buy risky assets of the US stock market.

The final consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan at the end of November amounted to 96.8 against the October level of 95.5, which is also higher than the forecast of 95.7.

American consumers positively assess the prospects for the US economy, which still demonstrates greater stability in the context of international trade conflicts than the economy of other US partner countries.

Due to concerns about the state of the Eurozone economy, the euro is unlikely to show significant growth against the US dollar in the near future.

Today, regarding the dollar and the euro, the publication of important macro statistics is not planned. This week, investors will follow the publication on Thursday and Friday of inflation indices in Germany and the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, EUR / USD continues to decline, trading below key resistance levels of 1.1125 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1170 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

A break into the zone below the local support level of 1.0995 (November lows) is likely to indicate a strengthening of the downward trend with targets at support levels of 1.0940, 1.0900. Any corrective growth of EUR / USD will be limited by resistance levels 1.1125, 1.1170. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1053, 1.1060, 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1175



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1070. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1070. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1110, 1.1125, 1.1175

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

11/26/2019


AUD / USD remains in a long-term downtrend. Disappointing data from the Australian labor market, according to which unemployment rose in October by 0.1%, contributed to a sharp weakening of the Australian dollar and the fall of the pair AUD / USD.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the weekly and daily charts are on the side of sellers.

In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (lows of 2019), 0.6600, 06570 (the lower line of the downward channel on the weekly chart).

The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the resistance level 0.6802 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

However, the growth of AUD / USD will be limited by resistance levels of 0.6875 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.6920 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Despite the recent lower interest rates and lower income taxes, consumer confidence in Australia last week fell to its lowest level in more than four years. Consumers' assessment of the future prospects of the Australian economy is currently at the lowest level in the history of this survey.

This year, Australia's central bank lowered its key interest rate three times (to the current record low of 0.75%), and markets expect another cut in early 2020.

The next RBA meeting on monetary policy will be held next week. It will take place against the backdrop of rising unemployment (up to 5.3% in October), weak GDP growth and declining consumer confidence.

If the RBA decides to lower the rate already at this meeting, then AUD is likely to fall under mass sales.

RBA managing director Philip Lowe said today that if the key rate is lowered to 0.25%, the issue of quantitative easing will be considered.

"There may come a time when quantitative easing will be necessary to support our collective well-being, but that moment has not come yet, and I hope that will not", Lowe said.

“I hope that other options for state policy will also be included in the agenda”, he said.

Thus, we should expect further weakening of AUD and the fall of the pair AUD / USD.

Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market, Sell Limit 0.6800, 0.6820. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6770. Take-Profit 0.6870, 0.6900

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
XAU/USD: Current Dynamics

11/27/2019


Against the background of increased expectations of investors in the soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is declining.

According to reports received earlier this month from the Ministry of Commerce of China, if a “first phase” trade agreement is signed, the parties will cancel duties at the same time and in equal volumes.

This news triggered a sharp increase in stock indices and a drop in gold prices.

On Tuesday, investor optimism was reinforced by another report by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that the parties agreed to continue discussion of the remaining issues that need to be agreed upon to conclude a "first phase" deal.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, XAU / USD is trading below the important short-term resistance level of 1464.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, XAU / USD will go towards the support levels of 1440.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1420.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Above these levels, a long-term bull trend remains.

Return to the area above the resistance levels of 1478.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will create conditions for further growth of XAU / USD.

Nevertheless, investors are cautious before Thanksgiving and before the publication of important macro data from the United States today (at 13:30, 14:45, 15:00 GMT), including data on orders for durable goods, the second estimate of GDP for 3- the first quarter and data on applications for unemployment benefits, data on personal income and expenses of Americans, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. At 19:00 (GMT) the Fed Beige Book will be published.

If the data indicate the stability of the US economy, the dollar will strengthen, and gold prices will come under pressure.

Conversely, weak macro data from the United States, as well as new difficulties in the negotiation process between US and Chinese trade representatives, could trigger a fall in stock indices and an increase in demand for gold.

The first signal to resume the long XAU / USD positions will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1464.00.

Support Levels: 1440.00, 1420.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00

Resistance Levels: 1464.00, 1478.00, 1484.00, 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1451.00. Stop-Loss 1465.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1420.00, 1380.00, 1368.00

Buy Stop 1465.00. Stop-Loss 1451.00. Take-Profit 1478.00, 1484.00, 1497.00, 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: in the last days of the month

11/28/2019


Today is a day off in the USA (Thanksgiving). US financial markets and banks will be closed, and on Friday, trading will end earlier. In this regard, trading volumes during the US trading session will be low.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains positive. After the publication of a number of positive macro data from the United States on Wednesday, the DXY dollar index reached a local 6-week high near 98.37, while maintaining multi-month positive dynamics.

According to official data released on Wednesday, US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was 2.1% (the initial estimate assumed US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter by 1.9%), mainly due to strong indicators of consumer spending. Rising wages, historically low unemployment and low interest rates in October supported consumer spending, which is about 2/3 of US GDP.

Speaking on Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "this growth period has been going on for 11 years and is the longest in US history, so overall economic conditions can be called favorable".

The US economy in the current conditions looks more stable compared to other major economies in the world, which will help maintain the demand for US assets and the dollar.

Meanwhile, USD / CAD has been growing since the opening of today's trading day. At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading above the short-term support level 1.3275 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the important support level 1.3235 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which speaks in favor of purchases of this currency pair.

Therefore, you should look for the opportunity to enter long positions, for example, when roll back (lower) to the support level of 1.3275. Above this level of support, long positions are preferred.

A breakdown of this level of support will be a signal for sales. In this case, the reduction targets will be the support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.

Despite the optimism of Bank of Canada managers, many economists believe that the central bank should consider lowering interest rates to prevent the negative economic effects of ongoing trade conflicts.

The next meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held on December 4. If at this meeting, the Bank of Canada will signal its intention to lower the rate in the coming months, then the Canadian dollar may come under pressure, which may intensify amid falling oil prices.

Support Levels: 1.3275, 1.3235, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3235, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: Strong drivers are needed for price increases

11/29/2019


Expectations of a soon conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China contributed to higher prices for commodities, including oil. So, Brent crude oil has risen in price over the past 2 months by almost 6%, reaching $ 64.55 a barrel this week.

However, further price growth stopped. The price is trying to gain a foothold in the zone above the key resistance levels 63.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel).

A breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.55 (monthly highs) will strengthen the bullish momentum and

will direct the price to resistance levels 65.10, 66.10, 67.50.

However, the global downtrend of the price is prevailing. Its further growth is unlikely without strong fundamental drivers.

A signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels 63.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 63.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The targets for further decline are located at the levels of 60.40 (May lows), 58.50, 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

Continued tensions in international trade relations, as well as significant oil reserves in the United States will put pressure on oil prices in the direction of their decline.

A stronger dollar is also putting pressure on oil prices. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY futures are trading near 98.32, 17 pips above the opening price last Monday, staying close to the highs of the last 7 weeks.

Support Levels: 63.35, 63.00, 62.30, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 64.00, 64.55, 65.10, 67.50



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 64.60. Take-Profit 63.35, 63.00, 62.30, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 64.60. Stop-Loss 63.30. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
S&P500: New Year rally continues

12/02/2019


After progress appeared in US-China trade negotiations, growth in the US stock market accelerated.

According to statements by the Ministry of Commerce of China made last month, the parties "agreed to properly resolve key issues and confirmed that the technical consultations on some parts of the text of the agreement have basically been completed".

Last week, US President Donald Trump signed law to support protesters in Hong Kong, but China refrained from retaliation. The parties are still set to sign a trade agreement. Trump is likely to also refrain from introducing December 15 previously announced new import duties on Chinese goods.

On Monday, world and US stock indices received additional support after the publication of positive macro data, indicating that the second largest economy in the world continues to grow, despite a trade conflict with the United States. So, the Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector according to Caixin in November rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in October. The indicator is growing above level 50, signaling an increase in demand for Chinese goods.

US stock indices are rising, rewriting absolute highs and continuing New Year's rally. At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the S&P 500 is trading near the 3155.0 mark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average - near the 28200.0 mark, and the Nasdaq100 - near the 8450.0 mark.

Trading above the key support level of 2940.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), as well as the level of 2962.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), S&P500 maintains a long-term positive dynamics.

Long positions are preferable, and above support levels 3130.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 3078.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe.

Support Levels: 3130.0, 3078.0, 3028.0, 2962.0, 2940.0, 2845.0

Resistance Levels: 3157.0




Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 3128.0. Stop-Loss 3158.0. Objectives 3078.0, 3028.0, 2962.0, 2940.0

Buy Stop 3158.0. Stop-Loss 3128.0. Objectives 3150.0, 3200.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

12/03/2019


According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, the manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October (the forecast was 49.2).

The manufacturing sector does not have such a significant effect on US GDP as consumer spending. However, it is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole.

Index values below 50 indicate a decline in activity. At the same time, the value of the manufacturing PMI below this mark has been observed for the fourth month in a row.

New manufacturers were pressured by new import duties and uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute.

The DXY dollar index reached a new 7-week high last Friday near 98.50. However, on Tuesday, the DXY index is down for the second day in a row. At the beginning of today's European session, futures on the DXY dollar index was trading near 97.75, 45 points below the closing price last Friday.

This week, investors will be waiting for the publication of data on the US services sector (on Wednesday at 14:45 and 17:00 GMT), as well as a report on employment by the Department of Labor (on Friday at 13:30 GMT). In general, strong data are expected from the US labor market. At the same time, unemployment remained at a multi-year low of 3.6%.

If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the US dollar will quickly catch up.

In the first half of the trading day on Tuesday, NZD strengthened, and the NZD / USD pair rose, and for the second day in a row. At the beginning of the American session, NZD / USD is trading near the 0.6512 mark, through which the key resistance level passes (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). At 0.6545, there is another strong long-term resistance level (EMA50 on the weekly chart). To pass these strongest levels, the NZD / USD pair needs additional drivers. If positive macro data begins to arrive from the USA, then NZD/USD can rebound from current levels and return into the global downtrend.

Below the support level of 0.6465 (EMA144 on the daily chart) short positions will again become relevant.

Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6512, 0.6545




Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6490. Sell Limit 0.6545. Stop-Loss 0.6610. Take-Profit 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6610. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6790

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

12/03/2019


According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, the manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October (the forecast was 49.2).

The manufacturing sector does not have such a significant effect on US GDP as consumer spending. However, it is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole.

Index values below 50 indicate a decline in activity. At the same time, the value of the manufacturing PMI below this mark has been observed for the fourth month in a row.

New manufacturers were pressured by new import duties and uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute.

The DXY dollar index reached a new 7-week high last Friday near 98.50. However, on Tuesday, the DXY index is down for the second day in a row. At the beginning of today's European session, futures on the DXY dollar index was trading near 97.75, 45 points below the closing price last Friday.

This week, investors will be waiting for the publication of data on the US services sector (on Wednesday at 14:45 and 17:00 GMT), as well as a report on employment by the Department of Labor (on Friday at 13:30 GMT). In general, strong data are expected from the US labor market. At the same time, unemployment remained at a multi-year low of 3.6%.

If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the US dollar will quickly catch up.

In the first half of the trading day on Tuesday, NZD strengthened, and the NZD / USD pair rose, and for the second day in a row. At the beginning of the American session, NZD / USD is trading near the 0.6512 mark, through which the key resistance level passes (EMA200 on the daily chart). At 0.6545, there is another strong long-term resistance level (EMA50 on the weekly chart). To pass these strongest levels, the NZD / USD pair needs additional drivers. If positive macro data begins to arrive from the USA, then NZD/USD can rebound from current levels and return into the global downtrend.

Below the support level of 0.6465 (EMA144 on the daily chart) short positions will again become relevant.

Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6512, 0.6545


Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6490. Sell Limit 0.6545. Stop-Loss 0.6610. Take-Profit 0.6465, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6610. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6790

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: will the Bank of Canada reduce the rate?

12/04/2019


Bank of Canada managing director Stephen Poloz said last month that the central bank is pursuing the right policy, given the current uncertainty about how global negative factors will affect the country's economy.

"We believe that monetary policy is in line with the current situation", said the head of the Bank of Canada, and "remains largely stimulating", he added.

In his opinion, the overall economic situation in Canada is favorable, although trade conflicts harm Canada’s exports and the investment of Canadian companies.

During 2019, the Bank of Canada kept the key rate at 1.75%, and according to the majority of financial market participants, at its meeting on Wednesday, the central bank will leave the key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%.

According to the economic advisers of the central bank, the easing of monetary policy could provoke credit growth and lead to overheating of real estate markets in the country, especially in large cities.

At the same time, there is an opinion that the central bank should nevertheless consider reducing interest rates in order to prevent the negative economic consequences of the current trade conflicts.

Last Tuesday, US President Donald Trump signaled that a trade war with China would continue next year. Trump said he “has no deadline” to conclude a trade agreement with China, and he “likes the idea of waiting until the election”.

Reducing the likelihood of a soon deal may put pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies quotes, in particular the Canadian dollar.

If, on the part of the Bank of Canada, signals are sent today aimed at easing monetary policy in the short term, the Canadian dollar could drop sharply. The decision on the rate will be published at 15:00, and at 16:15 (GMT) a press conference will begin, during which the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will explain the position of the bank and give an assessment of the current economic situation in the country.

Meanwhile, USD / CAD broke through the short-term support level 1.3286 on Wednesday (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and is developing a downward trend towards the key support level 1.3238 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of breakdown and a further decrease in USD / CAD, the targets will be support levels 1.3200, 1.3138 (September lows), 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042.

If the Bank of Canada today shows a tendency to soft monetary policy, then USD / CAD will resume growth, and a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3286 will signal a resumption of long positions.

Support Levels: 1.3238, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Resistance Levels: 1.3286, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Scenarios


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.3305. Take-Profit 1.3238, 1.3200, 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Buy Stop 1.3305. Stop-Loss 1.3270. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: prices rise again

12/05/2019


Oil prices rose sharply again on Wednesday amid positive reports regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China and in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC meeting.

Bloomberg announced that the United States and China are close to concluding a preliminary trade agreement, which may be signed as early as December 15. This deal could spur oil demand.

Oil quotes also rose thanks to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), published on Wednesday, according to which oil reserves fell by 4.856 million barrels last week (against the forecast of -1.734 million barrels).

ICE Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $ 63 a barrel, and today, prices continue to rise.

At the beginning of today's European trading session, Brent crude is trading at $63.90 a barrel.

The price again makes an attempt to gain a foothold in the zone above the key resistance levels 63.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) .

On Friday (at 18:00 GMT) the next weekly report of Baker Hughes will be published.

If he again indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs, this could give a new positive impetus to prices.

A breakdown of the local resistance level of 64.55 (monthly highs) will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the nearest resistance levels of 65.10, 66.10, 67.50.

Nevertheless, despite the growth, in general, the global downtrend of prices prevails.

A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 63.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 63.70, 63.00, 62.35, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Resistance Levels: 64.00, 64.55, 65.10, 67.50



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 63.30. Stop-Loss 64.60. Take-Profit 62.35, 61.00, 60.40, 58.50, 56.90

Buy Stop 64.60. Stop-Loss 63.30. Take-Profit 65.10, 67.00, 67.50

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: on the eve of NFP publication and unemployment data

12/06/2019


Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged, signaling that additional monetary stimulus could be implemented in the foreseeable future. “Further decisions regarding rates will depend on the bank’s assessment of the negative impact of trade conflicts on the sources of stability of the Canadian economy”, the bank said in a statement.

The pair USD / CAD fell sharply after the decision of the Bank of Canada not to change the monetary policy. Having broken through the key support level of 1.3235 (EMA144 and EMA200 on the daily chart), USD / CAD continues to decline towards the lower border of the range located between the levels of 1.3138 and 1.3345.

A breakdown of the support levels 1.3042, 1.3015, corresponding to annual minimums, and a decrease to the area below the support level 1.2920 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will indicate a break in the long-term bullish trend of USD / CAD.

In an alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level 1.3235, long positions will become relevant again.

On Friday, investors will be waiting for the publication of employment reports by the US and Canadian Department of Labor (at 13:30 GMT). Strong data expected in the USA. At the same time, unemployment remained at a multi-year low of 3.6%. Unemployment stays at current levels for 20 consecutive months. This is the longest period since the 1960s. The Fed is guided by the level of inflation, GDP and the state of the labor market, which remains a bright spot against the general background.

In Canada, unemployment in October was 5.5%. If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data turn out to be better than the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in unemployment is a positive factor for the currency, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.

Thus, during the publication of data from the US and Canadian labor markets (at 13:30 GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected in the financial market, especially in the USD / CAD pair.

Support Levels: 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Resistance Levels: 1.3235, 1.3286, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.3150. Stop-Loss 1.3210. Take-Profit 1.3138, 1.3100, 1.3060, 1.3042, 1.3015

Buy Stop 1.3210. Stop-Loss 1.3150. Take-Profit 1.3235, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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