Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current RBA monetary policy

05/03/2018

Current dynamics

On Tuesday, when the next meeting is held, the RB of Australia is likely to maintain the current level of the interest rate unchanged (1.5%).

After the previous meeting of the RBA (February 6), a number of macro statistical indicators worsened: inflation expectations and consumer sentiment deteriorated, and the level of retail sales decreased, the labor market deteriorated, and the trade balance deficit doubled.

In a recent speech to Parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low," although "business sentiment is improving".

The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019.

The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years.

According to Philip Lowey, "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar". The Australian dollar remains largely a commodity currency, and an increase in world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, contributes to the growth of the Australian dollar.

The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA do not see. The RBA's decision on the interest rate, in practice, will not have a noticeable effect on the Australian dollar. But data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) will be published on Thursday (00:30 GMT) may have a much greater impact on the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and buyer of its primary commodities (primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, and agricultural products). The decline in Australian imports to China could have the most negative impact on the Australian dollar.

This week, investors will also follow the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market (for February). The publication, as expected, of strong values will strengthen the position of the US dollar and give the Fed an extra trump card in the execution of the planned plan to further tighten monetary policy in the US. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT) of indicators of business activity in the US services sector for February. Despite the expected slight decrease, the indices remain well above the 50 mark, which is a positive factor for the USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7730. Stop-Loss 0.7775. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Buy Stop 0.7775. Stop-Loss 0.7730. Take-Profit 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction

06/03/2018

Current dynamics

Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration .

For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures.

If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum,

the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark.

At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865

Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars

07/03/2018

Current dynamics

More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war.

On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply.

Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session.

Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties.

Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me".

The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum.

Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said.

Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn.

Today we expect a busy trading day.

After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published.

The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.

We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists

12/03/2018

Current dynamics

Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days.

Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD.

On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published.

Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics




Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165

Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Bank of Canada concerned about talks over NAFTA

13/03/2018

Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of Canada retained its key rate at the previous level of 1.25%, referring to the growing uncertainty of the prospects for negotiations on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The USA is Canada's largest trading partner. Protectionist measures on the part of the US cause concern among all US trade partners, including in the leadership of Canada and its central bank. Recent US rhetoric increases the likelihood of a negative outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. As you know, the USA introduced 25% of the duty on the import of steel and 10% of the duty on the import of aluminum to the USA from all countries, except Canada and Mexico, the US partners for NAFTA. Import tariffs come into force 15 days after last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose duties. For Canada and Mexico, there is a 30-day delay. If the participating countries (the USA, Canada, Mexico) manage to agree on new conditions for the extension of NAFTA, steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada and Mexico will not be introduced. Otherwise, Trump promised to leave NAFTA.

The US share in Canada's exports is about 75%, which is 20% of Canada's gross domestic product.

The economy of Canada lost 88,000 jobs in January. In addition, the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, published earlier this month, pointed out that companies' investments could significantly slow down this year.

Last Wednesday, when the meeting was held, the Bank of Canada said that economic prospects are expected to justify higher interest rates over time. However, it is possible that instead of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, some monetary easing will be required. This will become especially important if there are difficulties in the mutual trade relations between Canada and the United States. Any disruptions in trade flows between these two countries can have big consequences for the Canadian economy.

Many investors expect that this year the Fed will raise rates four times, rather than three, as the central bank's leaders planned at a meeting in December. If the Federal Reserve receives signals about the intention to speed up the tightening of the policy, it will support the dollar.

While the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, the failure of other major world central banks to normalize monetary policy will help strengthen the US dollar.

Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, which will begin at 14:30 (GMT). The soft rhetoric of his speech on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as the concerns voiced by Poloz about US protectionist actions and the prospects for NAFTA, will further lower the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170

Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the current situation can be described as flat

14/03/2018

Current dynamics

The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry recently made another forecast, according to which, the production of shale oil in the country in April will increase by 131,000 barrels a day to a record level of 6.95 million barrels per day.

The rapid growth in the production of shale oil in the US reduces OPEC's efforts to stabilize the level of demand and supply of oil and maintain world oil prices. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.

In the opinion of the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the president of OPEC at the present time, "reducing the cartel's production has prevented chaos in the oil market". And this, to a large extent, is true. But the increase in oil prices began, mainly, from June 2017, when OPEC confirmed the extension of the contract to reduce oil production before the end of 2018. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh in February that Saudi Arabia is ready to take additional measures in this direction. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", said Khaled Al-Falih.

Meanwhile, in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), disagreements arose over the necessary level of oil prices.

Saudi Arabia is aiming for prices around $ 70 per barrel or higher, while Iran would like prices to be around $ 60 per barrel. According to Iran, prices in the levels of $70 per barrel will provoke oil companies in the US to increase production even more rapidly, which will cause a collapse in prices.

There is a certain share of truth in this. For example, US Deputy Energy Minister Dan Brulett said recently that US oil production this year may show "phenomenal" growth, making oil rally almost impossible.

Participants in the oil market are waiting for OPEC's monthly reports, which will be released this week.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week. However, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.3 million barrels, which could push up oil prices.

And today the attention of traders will be riveted to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on data on oil reserves in the US, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks in the US increased by 2,023 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, oil quotes may decrease.

Meanwhile, the second week Brent crude oil is trading near the level of 65.00 dollars per barrel. It seems that the oil market lacks drivers for either resuming growth, or for further, deeper, lowering. Thus, the current situation can be described as flat.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 64.80, 64.00, 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50

Resistance levels: 65.40, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 63.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50

Buy Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 63.80. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: inflation in the Eurozone is still low to change the parameters of the QE program

15/03/2018

Current dynamics

Speaking on Wednesday at the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi again drew the attention of investors to low inflation in the Eurozone, as well as to the increased risks for the European economy in connection with the prospect of a new trade war with the United States. "Among the risk factors for the outlook for inflation are new US trade measures, the strengthening of the euro. We will adhere to the order that is outlined in our leading indications, namely, our promise to maintain interest rates at current levels for a long time after the completion of net purchases (bonds)", Draghi said.

Thus, on the part of the ECB leadership, the ECB's commitment to a soft monetary policy is again and again being confirmed. Interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time", Draghi said last week, when the ECB's regular meeting on monetary policy was held.

In response to Mario Draghi's declarations, the euro is falling against the dollar, but the deeper decline of the euro is constrained by its growth in crosses against other currencies, primarily commodity ones.

Friday (10:00 GMT) is expected to publish important inflationary indicators for the Eurozone, including labor costs (in the fourth quarter), consumer price indices for February. According to these data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone remains low. It is expected that the consumer price index in February rose by 0.2% (against the decline of -0.9% in January) and by 1.2% in annual terms. However, the publication of these data, despite their importance, will most likely provoke a weak market reaction, since this is a later release, and the data is already included in the prices. Volatility may increase in case of deviation from the forecast values.

Investors are beginning to prepare for a meeting of the Fed, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy.

Until the end of this week, EUR / USD is likely to remain positive, staying in the zone above support levels 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading above support levels of 1.2330, 1.2310. Long positions are relevant. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.2348 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go to the lower border of the range formed between the levels 1.2550 and 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the EUR / USD drop from 1.3900 in the last wave of decline since May 2014).

The breakdown of support level 1.2200 (50% Fibonacci level) will significantly worsen the outlook for EUR / USD and provoke a decline to support level 1.2100 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, while EUR / USD is trading above support levels 1.1870 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), a long-term bullish trend persists.

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: the index completes the week in a negative territory

16/03/2018

Current dynamics

On Thursday, the US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 24873.00 points. Nevertheless, the DJIA seems to be wrapping up this week and the first half of the month in negative territory. DIJA remains in the bullish long-term trend; however, the positive momentum of further growth is dying out more and more.

Investors continue to assess the impact of the protectionist trade measures of the Donald Trump administration, and also expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a more rapid increase in interest rates in the United States.

After earlier in March, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, representatives of the world's largest economies protested against US protectionist actions. The EU has already prepared a package of countermeasures against American goods. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. Now the White House is exploring the possibility of implementing a package of initiatives aimed against China, including duties on the import of certain goods.

However, China is the largest holder of US government bonds and stock assets. If China, in response to the US protectionist actions, begins to massively get rid of them, then this may cause a new wave of sales on the US stock market.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.824% from 2.815% on Wednesday, staying close to the psychologically important level of 3.000%. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. If their profitability exceeds the mark of 3.000%, it will sharply increase the degree of anxiety and lead to another wave of sales of stock assets, according to many economists.

Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed in early February.

Now investors are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019. If the Federal Reserve signals to the Fed's determination to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace, the outlook for the US stock market will deteriorate significantly.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 24650.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

Resistance levels: 25050.0, 25750.0, 26620.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 25070.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Sell Stop 24600.0. Stop-Loss 25070.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: The dollar is rising before the Fed meeting

19/03/2018

Current dynamics

While the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, and market participants are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held on March 20-21, gold prices are down, today is the fifth week in a row. The growth of the dollar makes gold and other commodities traded for the US currency, less attractive to holders of other currencies.

As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. Earlier in December, Fed executives planned 3 interest rate increases in 2018, and 2 increases in 2019. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy amid the fast-growing US economy.

So, the macro data published on Friday confirmed the growth of industrial production in the USA. The index of industrial production in February was + 1.1% (the forecast was + 0.3%, the previous value was -0.3%). At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in March (the forecast was 99.3 and 99.7 - the previous value), a maximum of almost 14 years.

It is likely that at the March meeting, the Fed will also raise its forecast for economic growth for the next two years. The expected increase in budget spending in the US, as well as stimulation of the economy due to lower taxes on the activities of US corporations against the backdrop of low unemployment will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.

Investors are trying to understand whether the Fed will raise interest rates 4 times, whereas the Fed previously talked about 3 interest rate increases in 2018. At higher interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with assets that generate interest income, for example, with treasury bonds. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold. However, the decline in gold prices will be restrained by its purchases from retail buyers and also by some investors using gold to hedge the risks of growth in consumer prices amid the expected increase in inflation.

The drop in gold prices will also be hampered by political and economic uncertainty in the world, as many investors prefer to invest in reliable assets during periods of instability in the markets. Another reshuffle in the administration of the White House, as well as the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US, which provoked fears of unleashing trade wars, increase the demand for protective assets, such as gold.

For today, important news in the economic calendar is not planned, and, apparently, the positive dynamics of the dollar will remain, and the pair XAU / USD will remain under pressure, until Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be published and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will begin, and the comments of the Fed on the decision and prospects of monetary policy in the US will be published.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1308.00, 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1316.00. Take-Profit 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00

Buy Stop 1316.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: on the eve of the Fed and the RBNZ meetings

20/03/2018

Current dynamics

On the eve of the Fed meeting and the publication of an interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US dollar is rising against commodity currencies, including against the New Zealand dollar.

Most market participants expect that the Fed will announce the first interest rate increase in 2018, as well as give slightly more positive predictions about the growth of the US economy in the next 2 years. The forecast of economists for 2018 envisages US GDP growth of 2.7%, as well as a decrease in unemployment to 3.9% by the middle of the year and 3.8% by December.

At the same time, many market participants will look for signals in the Federal Reserve's statement regarding the possibility of accelerating rates of rate hikes this year in order to prevent overheating of the economy. The Fed's inclination towards more aggressive policy tightening may support the dollar, as raising borrowing costs in the US makes the dollar more attractive to investors.

If the Fed leaves its forecast for 3 rate increases this year, the US dollar may fall, as the probability that rates will be raised this year 3 times is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.

On the same day, when the decision of the Federal Reserve on the rates will be published, the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy in New Zealand will conclude. The RBNZ decision on the rates will be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT).

As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. The New Zealand currency remains robust against the US dollar, despite the threat of a trade war between China and the United States, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand.

According to the data released last week, New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter (+ 2.9% in annual terms). This is quite strong data, indicating a stable state of the New Zealand economy, which remains one of the fastest growing in the world. Nevertheless, the RBNZ is unlikely to go on to tighten monetary policy, economists expect, until mid-2019.

If, however, the accompanying statement of the RBNZ, which will also be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even in spite of The Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy in the US.

From the news for today we are waiting for the data with the results of the milk auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), which will be published after 13:00 (GMT).

The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. If the data points to another decline in world prices for dairy products, primarily for milk powder, the New Zealand dollar will decrease. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.6%) against the previous values of -0.5%, + 5.9%, + 4.9%, +2.2 % and + 0.4%.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: investors took a pause

21/03/2018

Current dynamics

The second trading day, the main US indices are traded in a narrow range. Traders paused before the decision of the Fed on rates, which will be published today at 18:00 (GMT).

Virtually all market participants believe that interest rates will be increased. As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase is estimated at 95%, and this decision is already included in the price.

Greater interest for investors will be presented by a press conference of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, which will start at 18:30 (GMT). Investors will seek in his comments signals for the possibility of faster monetary tightening. The steady rise in inflation and the growth of the US economy forced some investors to put in price 4 rate hikes this year. If Powell confirms this probability, the dollar will rise sharply, and US stock indices will decline.

The Fed's fresh economic forecasts will also be of interest, according to which the Fed may slightly raise forecasts of US GDP growth for 2019 and 2020. Tax reform in the US can provide support to the economy for at least a few years. These are the factors in favor of the growth of stock indices.

Meanwhile, investors are also monitoring the situation around the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, which will begin to operate in the US since Friday. On Thursday, the administration of the US president is expected to announce new foreign trade measures directed against China, including duties of $ 30 billion. This will again remind of the possibility of unleashing new world trade wars.

Also on the agenda of the US Congress is the question of the adoption of a bill on the financing of the government in the amount of $ 1.3 trillion, in order to avoid the third for the year 2018 a partial cessation of work of state institutions. The decision on this issue should be made by the end of the trading day on Friday.

On Thursday, investors' attention will also be directed to the meeting of the Bank of England, which will address the question of the interest rate in the UK.

Thus, volatility on global financial markets will be high until the end of this trading week.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2738.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2690.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2690.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors analyze the results of the last meeting of the Fed

22/03/2018

Current dynamics

The decision of the Fed to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, and adhere to the previously planned plan for further tightening of monetary policy, was negatively welcomed by investors, which caused a decline in both the dollar and the major US stock indexes.

If dollar buyers were disappointed that the Fed did not directly state the probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the stock market participants are disappointed that the Fed has confirmed the direction of its monetary policy for its further tightening.

Seven of the fifteen participants in the last meeting of the Fed still expect at least four increases this year.

The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts up by 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The Fed also expects that unemployment, which remained at 4.1% in October, will fall to 3.8% this year against 3.9% in the December forecast.

With the opening of today's trading day, the major US indices are declining.

Investors analyze the comments of the Fed, the dynamics of the monetary policy of the world's central banks and the prospects for increasing tensions in trade.

Investors believe that the Fed's confidence in the US economy and its restrained tone, ultimately, should positively affect the stock market. However, the prospect of further intensifying trade tensions could put pressure on stock indices.

Later on Thursday, the White House will announce a series of restrictive measures directed against China, including import duties on Chinese goods with a total value of at least $ 30 billion.

Donald Trump previously repeatedly pointed to the inadmissibility of a huge deficit in the US trade balance in trade with China.

As you know, the US foreign trade deficit in January amounted to a record $ 56.6 billion. And the introduction of import duties in the US should contribute, on the one hand, to increasing the competitiveness of national producers, and on the other hand, indirectly contribute to reducing the deficit of the foreign trade balance.

At the same time, in the long run, world trade wars do not contribute to the growth of the world economy and stock markets.

Today (at 12:00 GMT) the decision on monetary policy should be announced by the Bank of England. Investors will wait for hints of possible actions on the tightening of monetary policy in May.

Volatility in this period of time will grow throughout the financial market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

Resistance levels: 24650.0, 24970.0, 25750.0, 26620.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24850.0. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24850.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: the mood in the markets remains negative

23/03/2018

Current dynamics

The newly exacerbated threat of the emergence of world trade wars provoked another decline in world stock markets. So, the US DJIA index lost 2.9% on Thursday, which was its worst one-day percentage drop since February 8, the S&P500 fell 2.6% and lost all growth this year, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite dropped 4.3%.

European indices are also under pressure. For example, the European EuroSTOXX50 opened today's trading day with a gap down after yesterday's sharp decline of 2.1%.

In Europe, the decline was led by the core resources sector. Shares of the steel company Outokumpu Oyj fell 4.8%. The decline in government bond yields led to a pullback in the banking sector.

So the world stock indexes reacted to the new restrictive actions of Washington. Restrictive measures were taken by China. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on the introduction of charges for the import of goods of Chinese production for a total of $ 60 billion. The restriction also concerns the access of Chinese business to American technologies.

Previously, the US imposed import duties on steel and aluminum at 25% and 10%, respectively. Today these duties have come into force.

Protectionist actions of the White House cause sharp criticism from the leaders of the world community. So, Japan's trade minister Hiroshige Seko said today that "This measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.

South Korea, the EU, Australia and some other countries, including those belonging to the NAFTA (Canada and Mexico), are temporarily exempted from these duties.

The US action was a response from China, which announced the introduction of duties on goods from the US, and alarmed markets in Asia. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce today announced that it will return duties on imports of American goods, including pork and processed aluminum, in the amount of $ 3 billion. On Friday, the Nikkei Stock Average closed with a decline of 4.5%, and the yen asylum currency rose against the dollar to its highs since 2016. Stock indexes of South Korea, China and Hong Kong decreased by more than 3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.8%. Earlier, the EU also announced the introduction of restrictive measures to import a number of American goods. In response, Trump threatened to introduce import duties on European cars.

Negative news will continue to rock the markets.

Today, traders will be focused on the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of important macro data on the US and Canada, which will increase the volatility of trading in financial markets.

However, investors will evaluate US protectionist actions against their trading partners. It is likely that in the foreseeable future, the mood in the markets is likely to be negative.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2650.0, 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2615.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2615.0. Objectives 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: investors are concerned about recent decisions of the White House

26/03/2018

Current dynamics

Due to increased tension in trade relations between China and the United States, the demand for protective assets, in particular gold, has risen sharply. March gold futures on COMEX on the basis of trading rose in price by 1.7%, to 1349.30 dollars per troy ounce, which was the most significant one-day growth since February 14.

Fears that the protectionist trade policy of the US and China will provoke trade wars caused a large-scale decline in the dollar, world stock indices and supported the quotes of gold. Another surge in the volatility of trades in this non-ferrous metal was caused by the US decision to impose restrictive measures against China. Among these measures - import duties on supplies from China worth $ 60 billion, restrictions on the acquisition of American companies and the transfer of technologies to China.

This was stated on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, who intends to reduce the US trade deficit with China to $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.

China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce of China said in a statement.

Investors are extremely concerned about the threat of the emergence of world trade wars. Previously, the US announced the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, and first of all, it will affect Japan and China, the largest suppliers of these products in the US. Japanese Commerce Minister Hiroshige Seko said last week that "this measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.

Under normal conditions, monetary tightening strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations. At the March meeting, the Fed raised its forecast for economic growth for the next two years and left its intention to raise the rate this year two more times. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold.

But, despite the Fed's decision to stick to its plan to tighten monetary policy, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks related to the prospect of new trade wars are coming to the fore.

With the opening of today's trading day, gold is traded in a narrow range. On the one hand, the dollar continues to become cheaper today, which positively affects gold quotes. On the other hand, today there is an increase in the main US stock indices, which reached important support levels on the eve, which indicates the resumption of purchases of risky assets of the US stock market. Against this background, gold, usually, becomes cheaper.

If the dollar starts to recover when the positive dynamics on the US stock market resume, then the XAU / USD will start to decline again.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1341.00, 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00, 1277.00, 1268.00

Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00



Trade Scenarios

Sell Stop 1340.00. Stop-Loss 1351.00. Take-Profit 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00

Buy Stop 1351.00. Stop-loss 1340.00. Take-Profit 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: investors monitor the negotiations of representatives of the United States and China

27/03/2018

Current dynamics

As you know, last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a number of measures aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China by $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.

China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

The increased threat of the beginning of world trade wars, provoked by US protectionist actions, contributed to a sharp drop in world stock indices.

Investors also sold the dollar, moving funds into defensive assets, such as the franc, yen, gold.

On Tuesday, the dollar and major US stock indexes are rising. The optimism of investors is fueled by reports that high-ranking representatives of the United States and China are negotiating to resolve the recent contradictions in the trade relations between the two countries.

The chief economic adviser to the Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Liu He, met with representatives of American companies and other representatives of the business community, counting on the resumption of the dialogue. Chairman of the State Council of China Li Keqiang on Monday evening reaffirmed Beijing's readiness to continue negotiations with the US in order to resolve the contradictions in trade and reach a mutually beneficial result.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% on Monday to 24200.00 points, the S&P 500 grew 2.7% to 2660.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3% to 7220.00 points. On Tuesday, the recovery of indices continues.

If China and the US come to an agreement that suits both sides, then the recovery of the indices will continue. Otherwise, the stock markets are waiting for another collapse. Trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone, although, in the short term, a party that introduces protectionist measures can gain advantages in trade.

For today, the economic calendar is empty. The dynamics in financial markets is currently determined by the situation in the US trade relations with their largest trade and economic partners.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

Resistance levels: 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24500.0. Stop-Loss 24270.0. Take-Profit 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Sell Stop 24270.0. Stop-Loss 24500.0. Take-Profit 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: price growth may soon resume

28/03/2018

Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) data, which was published Tuesday night, US oil inventories rose 5.3 million barrels last week. The reserves of gasoline decreased by 5.8 million barrels, and the reserves of distillates decreased by 2.2 million barrels.

Investors drew attention to the growth of oil reserves, and its quotes decreased.

Today Brent crude oil is trading in a narrow range near the $ 69.00 per barrel mark, pending the publication at 14:30 (GMT) of official data from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the US. Some analysts of the oil market expect an increase in commercial oil reserves in the US, by 1.4 million barrels in the week of March 17-23.

Other analysts expect the stock to decline by 0.287 million barrels. Given the data previously provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API), it is likely that stocks have grown.

While OPEC is making efforts to reduce oil production, the US successfully took advantage of the situation and increased oil production, including shale oil. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.

And now, as it became known from media reports last week, OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.

Another positive factor for oil prices and the argument for further price growth may be the prospect of the US withdrawing from the international agreement on the Iranian nuclear program concluded in 2015.

Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.

Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.

As the UAE energy minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the present time, said last month that OPEC is "more concerned about the supply shortage than its surplus".

There is a high probability that the oil price rally may soon resume.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 69.00, 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60, 60.00, 57.00

Resistance levels: 70.00, 70.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 68.50. Stop-Loss 69.60. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60

Buy Stop 69.60. Stop-Loss 68.50. Take-Profit 70.00, 70.75, 76.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend

29/03/2018

Current dynamics

"Economic prospects have strengthened in recent months", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. "Some factors confirm that the prospects for fiscal policy are becoming more stimulating, the continuing growth of jobs contributes to income and trust, foreign growth has been on a strong trajectory and the financial conditions as a whole remain mild".

The dollar demonstrates a large-scale strengthening, which is caused by the successful advancement of negotiations between high-ranking representatives of the United States and China regarding trade relations between the two countries, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US, and also by the continuing of receiving positive macro data from the US.

So, on Wednesday the US Commerce Department published data according to which GDP in the 4th quarter was better than forecast and rose by 2.9% (the previous release indicated GDP growth of 2.5%, and the forecast was + 2.7%). .

The report, published on Wednesday, also pointed to an increase in consumer spending in the 4th quarter, while investment by companies remained high. At the same time, investments in fixed assets of non-residents increased by 6.8% per annum. The growth leader was equipment costs, which grew by 11.6%.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic said on Wednesday that inflation is growing faster than some common indicators indicate, which gives the US central bank the opportunity to continue a gradual increase in interest rates.

On Thursday, the market is demonstrating the sluggish trading dynamics. Traders prefer not to open new positions before the long weekend in connection with the celebration of Catholic Easter.

It is likely that at the second half of the US session traders will also begin fixing long positions in the dollar, which will cause it to decline, unless, of course, the macro statistics published at 12:30 (GMT) on the US again surpass the market expectations and will not, therefore, support dollar. Among the data published at this time - indicators of personal income / expenditure, as well as the basic price index of personal consumption expenditure for February. The base price index is expected to grow by 1.6% (in annual terms) against + 1.5% in January. If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar will resume growth.

Weak indicators will have a negative impact on the dollar and may become a trigger for closing long positions in the dollar.

Also at 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on Canada's GDP for January. Probably, GDP will grow by 0.1%, as well as in December. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian currency will strengthen, including against the US dollar.

With all other unaccounted-for conditions, market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend. European stock exchanges will be closed from March 30 to April 2, although the work of the forex market will remain unchanged.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2917, 1.3000, 1.3100



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2925. Take-Profit 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700

Buy Stop 1.2925. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3200

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: ahead - Catholic Easter. The exchanges are closed.

30/03/2018

Current dynamics

Today there is a low activity of traders. The volume of trading on the forex market even more fell with the beginning of the European session. In Catholic countries today is a day off (Good Friday). Stock and commodity exchanges in Europe, the United States, as well as in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada will be closed. Although forex and works in the usual mode, volatility and trading volumes will be restored only on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day against all major currencies, including against the franc. The dollar is not helped by the positive macro statistics released yesterday, according to which the price index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in February rose by 1.8% compared to the same period of the previous year and by 0.2% compared to the previous month. This Fed's preferred inflation indicator indicates that inflation in February rose and approaches the Fed's target level of 2%.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and member of the FOMC Patrick Harker said on Thursday that, in view of the acceleration of inflation this year, it is necessary to raise the rates a total of three times, whereas previously he had forecast two increases.

Harker expects that in the coming years inflation will slightly exceed the target level of 2%. "Trade taxes increase costs", - said Harker. New forecasts of the Fed's leaders published last week suggest higher economic growth, higher inflation and lower unemployment compared with the December forecasts. Heads of the Fed refer to the likely acceleration of economic growth due to changes in tax policy and increased federal spending.

As you know, last week the leaders of the Fed unanimously voted to raise the key interest rate to a range of 1.5% -1.75% and outlined two more such increases this year.

Investors expected to receive signals from the Fed for 4 rate hikes this year. However, this did not happen, and the dollar declined shortly after the Fed meeting, as 3 rate increases are already laid in the prices and quotes of the dollar.

Concerns of investors is continued due to the cause increased risks of the emergence of world trade wars after the well-known steps of the US administration towards escalating the protectionist position and imposing restrictions on the importation of a number of foreign goods into the US.

In this situation, investors prefer safe assets, such as the yen, gold and franc.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc also remains under pressure, despite its purchases as a safe haven. As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.

"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.

Thus, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the USD / CHF.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.9720, 0.9690, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445

Resistance levels: 0.9775, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9690. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Sell Stop 0.9690. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: negative sentiment of investors

02/04/2018

Current dynamics

The European stock and stock markets of Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are still closed today on the occasion of the holiday (Catholic Easter).

Asian indices fell on Monday amid tensions in world trade and concerns about the technology sector.

The key index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 0.2% after the introduction of import tariffs; South Korean Kospi dropped 0.1%, Taiwan's Taiex declined 0.3%, Japanese Nikkei traded 0.3% lower.

The Chinese authorities introduced reciprocal import duties on US agricultural products, including a 25% tariff on American pork and a 15% duty on fruit. In total 128 items of goods imported from the United States are in the restrictive list.

As you know, President of the United States Donald Trump signed on March 9 an order to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Fees for import of steel amounted to 25%, for imports of aluminum - 10%, because according to Washington, the import of steel and aluminum "threatens the national security" of the country.

Then on March 22, the White House adopted a memorandum on imposing trade restrictions on Beijing in order to reduce the deficit in US trade with China, which "according to various estimates, was between $ 375 billion and $ 504 billion". In total, the amount of restrictions on Chinese imports will be $ 60 billion. In China, after this, the United States were warned against the "trade war".

Investors are worried about the aggravation of trade relations between the US and China and have not yet decided what exactly this situation will turn out.

It is likely that against the background of the decline in leading Asian stock indices today, the main US trading indices will also open on negative territory.

News background today is meager. Negative mood of investors will be reflected in the decline of US indices at the opening of the American market. In full, the volatility and trading volumes on world financial markets will recover only on Tuesday.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Resistance levels: 2650.0, 2658.0, 2702.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2615.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2615.0. Objectives 2702.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current monetary policy

03/04/2018

Current dynamics

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday at 1.5%. Interest rates remain unchanged as a result of 18 meetings in a row. In the comments RBA adhered to the usual rhetoric. "Despite the improvement in the labor market, wage growth rates remain low, which is likely to continue for some time", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe. "Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector", Lowe said, adding that the RBA will not follow other central banks in the world that are prone to tightening policies. The country is expecting a weak wage growth, as well as low inflation, which means interest rates can remain unchanged for most of 2019, according to many economists.

The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar after the publication of the RBA's decision on rates. Nevertheless, the negative trend of AUD / USD persists.

The tension associated with the trade relations between China and the US will continue to put pressure on commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar. The threat of further protectionist measures by the US against other countries (especially China) is a risk to economic growth in the world. If tensions in foreign trade increase, it can slow global economic growth and lower demand and commodity prices, which, in turn, will negatively affect the quotations of commodity currencies.

The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019. The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA are not seen, and this is the main negative factor for the Australian dollar, while other major world banks can start curtailing softening programs and raise interest rates.

The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD.

For today, important economic news is no longer planned. The attention of investors will gradually switch to the publication on Friday of data on the US labor market for March. Strong data are expected. If there are no unexpected events in the world until Friday, then we should expect the strengthening of the US dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7635, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7715. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500

Buy Stop 0.7715. Stop-Loss 0.7670. Take-Profit 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com