Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the dollar lost to the euro more than 13%

29/12/2017

Current dynamics


Today is the last trading day of the outgoing year, and the dollar remains the focus of investors' attention, demonstrating a large-scale decline. This year became worst in a decade for the index of the dollar WSJ, dropping from the beginning of the year by 7.3%.

Euro since the beginning of the year has strengthened to the dollar by 13.6%, which was the maximum growth since 2003. The British pound in 2017 rose to the dollar by 9.1%, and this happens despite the still unclear prospects for negotiations of the UK with the EU over Brexit.

In December, finally, the US Senate fully approved tax reform, which envisages an unprecedented tax cut from US corporations from 35% to 21% (previously 20% was assumed). Reform, according to its supporters, should support the growth of the US economy. It will also accelerate inflation, which will allow the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening policies in 2018.

And, nevertheless, investors are actively selling the dollar, the fall of which does stop neither positive US macro statistics, nor adoption of new tax legislation in the US, nor the Fed's actions to tighten monetary policy. As you know, the Fed raised interest rates three times in 2017, and three more increases are scheduled for 2018.

Probably, the focus of investors' attention in 2018 will be the dynamics of wages in the US. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will take higher salaries. If wages are growing steadily, then, while maintaining the stability of the economy and the US labor market, interest rates can rise faster than market participants suggest.

It is possible that the actions of the Fed will still be able to reverse the situation in the new year with a deteriorating attitude toward the dollar. The reason for the reversal of the market and the bearish trend of the dollar may be the repatriation of profits earned abroad by US companies. As is known, within the framework of the tax reform, a one-time privilege for the repatriation of profits and capital to the United States is envisaged. If in the next few months US companies begin to return money to the United States, earned in other countries, it will cause an increase in demand for the dollar.

In recent months, unexpected movements and fluctuations in exchange rates have occurred on the market. Also, we should not discount the earlier statements of Donald Trump about the need for a weak dollar, including in order to increase the competitiveness of American goods abroad.

Thus, the intrigue around the dollar and its dynamics in the new year persists.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend long positions.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR / USD broke through the resistance level at 1.1960 (November highs) and continues to rise towards the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and 1.2100 mark.

You can return to consideration of short positions only after the breakthrough of the short-term support level 1.1875 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). And only after the price returns to the zone below the support levels 1.1800 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900) you can return to consideration of short (already mid-term) positions with targets at support level 1.1550 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

So far, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1875, 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1650, 1.1540

Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1875, 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1650, 1.1550

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the rising dynamics of prices

09/01/2018

Current dynamics

With the coming of the new year, the decline in the dollar, especially noticeably observed at the end of the past year, continued. Nevertheless, the dollar is gradually beginning to win back the lost positions.

Despite the fact that the negative dynamics of the dollar is observed in relation to commodity currencies, such as Canadian, New Zealand, Australian dollars, against the euro and the assets-shelters (yen, franc, gold), the dollar is strengthening.

Meanwhile, with the coming of the new year, oil prices are also rising. During today's Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil was again in the zone of multi-month highs near the level of 68.00 dollars per barrel. The last time the price was at current levels in May 2015.

Cold frosty weather in the US and riots in Iran, held several days ago, provoked a sharp rise in oil prices at the beginning of the year. According to various estimates, Iran possesses about 10% of the world's proven oil reserves, being the 4th largest oil producer after Venezuela (20% of the world's reserves), Saudi Arabia and Canada. Russia, by the way, is on the 8th place with reserves of 80,000 million barrels as of 2016. Iran is the third largest in terms of oil production in OPEC. Therefore, the information received from Iran on anti-government actions, made investors fear of possible interruptions in oil supplies, which, in turn, affected the next increase in oil prices.

As the American oil service company Baker Hughes reported last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 units to 742 over the past week. This also has a positive effect on oil prices, as it indicates some decrease in oil production in the US.

Meanwhile, US oil companies have a significant prospect and an incentive to increase production while oil prices remain high. The growth of oil production in the US is one of the deterrents to the growth in oil prices.

In November 2017, OPEC and another 10 oil-producing countries that are not part of the cartel have extended the deal to reduce global oil production by the end of 2018. The surplus of oil on the world market, which exerted pressure on prices for several years, is gradually being absorbed. The positive dynamics of oil prices, in general, remains. A further price increase is likely to reach $ 70 per barrel.

Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 21:00 (GMT) will report on oil and petroleum products in the US. And on Wednesday (15:30 GMT) the official weekly report of the US Energy Ministry will be presented. As expected, this agency will report a drop in oil and petroleum products by 4.1 million barrels last week (after a decline of 7.4 million barrels in the week before last). If the data are confirmed, they will further increase oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 67.00, 66.20, 64.50, 63.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 57.00, 56.00

Resistance levels: 68.00, 68.20, 69.00, 70.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 66.90. Stop-Loss. 68.20. Take-Profit 66.20, 65.00, 64.50, 63.00

Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 66.90. Take-Profit 69.00, 70.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: pound reacted positively to industrial production data

10/01/2018

Current dynamics

According to official data published on Wednesday, UK manufacturing production in November increased by 0.4% (forecast was + 0.3%) and by 3.5% in annual terms. Data for October were revised upwards (+ 0.3%, and not 0.1%, as previously thought). Despite the fact that industrial production accounts for about a fifth of the country's economy, with the largest contribution to the economy by the service sector and retail trade, the pound reacted positively to the data presented.

At the same time, data showed a slight increase in the UK trade deficit in November (to 12.2 billion pounds from 11.7 billion pounds in October, with a forecast of -10.7 billion pounds). Nevertheless, the pound continued to rise against the dollar after the release of the data.

The dollar is again falling today after growth in the beginning of the year.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan cut of 5% to 190 billion yen in buying some long-term government bonds. Market participants considered this a foreshadowing of the beginning of the curtailment of a large-scale program to stimulate the Japanese economy. Sales of the dollar against the yen against the backdrop of an increase in the yield of 10-year and 25-year Japanese government bonds provoked its decline against other currencies. By the beginning of today's European session, the dollar index DXY fell to 92.07 from the level of 92.2 on Tuesday.

In general, the positive dynamics of the GBP / USD pair remains. Nevertheless, traders who trade in the pound and GBP / USD pair are cautious ahead of the start of trade talks between the EU and the UK. Uncertainty in the prospects for economic relations between the UK and the European Union and the disagreements in the British government over Brexit put pressure on the pound. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU.

Back in November, UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond published negative forecasts for the growth of the British economy, and in December the IMF published a forecast that the GDP growth of the UK in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% against the backdrop of declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit .

At 13:00 (GMT) the report NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research of Great Britain) will be published with an estimate of GDP growth rates of the country. This indicator estimates the growth rate of the British economy during the last three months and is able to influence the monetary policy of the Bank of England. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for GBP. Forecast: UK economic growth for the last three months was 0.5% (against + 0.5% in the previous 3-month period). If the data are confirmed, then you can expect a 2% increase in the UK economy in 2017. This is a very positive indicator, given the gloomy forecasts of economists regarding the British economy after the referendum on Brexit, held in June 2016.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Short-term support level 1.3520 (EMA200 on 1-hour and EMA50 on 4-hour charts) kept GBP / USD from a deeper decline.

The pair GBP / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts.

In case of consolidation above the local resistance level 1.3550, the GBP / USD growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3700 (EMA144), 1.3970 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1.4050 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The decline scenario will be related to the breakdown of the support level 1.3420 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the further decline of the GBP / USD to support levels of 1.3300 (the lows of December), 1.3210 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). The breakdown of the key support level 1.3150 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart) will return GBP / USD in to the global downtrend began in July 2014.

Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3150

Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3700, 1.3970, 1.4050



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3590. Take-Profit 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3150

Buy Stop 1.3590. Stop-Loss 1.3470. Take-Profit 1.3630, 1.3700, 1.3970, 1.4050

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: euro decline is suspended

11/01/2018

Current dynamics

As the statistical agency Eurostat reported on Thursday, industrial production in the Eurozone rose by 1.0% in November (+ 3.2% in annual terms). The forecast of economists assumed an increase of 0.6% (+ 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year).

Eurostat also raised the estimate of industrial production growth in the Eurozone for October.

In December, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Eurozone's manufacturing sector reached its highest level in the history of such observations (since mid-1997).

The increase in investment costs of companies has contributed to the strongest growth in the Eurozone economy since 2007. The growth of industrial production at the moment is the strongest since August 2011.

It is worth noting at the same time that such a strong growth in industrial production of the Eurozone is provided, mainly at the expense of Germany, where in November industrial production grew by 3.6% compared to the previous month.

The data also show that the bullish economic trend persists in Germany. The surplus of the country's budget in 2017 amounted to 1.2% of GDP. The Bureau of Statistics Eurostat reported that Germany's GDP increased by 2.2% last year.

The euro reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented, and the pair EUR / USD is trading today in the range near the 1.1950 mark.

At the beginning of the year, the EUR / USD rose above 1.2070, however, subsequently fell to current levels. Investors are still cautious about buying euro against the dollar with EUR / USD rising above the level of 1.2000. ECB executives may fear that the strengthening of the euro could have a negative impact on the recovery of the Eurozone economy.

Market participants expect that the minutes of the December meeting of the ECB (will be published at 12:30 GMT) will demonstrate "fairly neutral" rhetoric of the ECB leaders.

If, however, the number of supporters of policy tightening in the Governing Council of the ECB grows, then it will exert increasing pressure on the ECB towards faster completion of monetary stimulus.

And this is a positive factor for euro buyers and its further growth. In general, we can say that the positive dynamics of EUR / USD remains. As far as leaders are tolerant with respect to the growth of the EUR / USD pair towards 1.2400, 1.2500, it is likely to become clearer from the published protocols.

Meanwhile, the US dollar rose on Thursday after the drop on Wednesday, when China denied media reports that Beijing could cut or stop purchases of US government bonds. This, in particular, was reported in the agency Bloomberg News.

The dollar index DXY rose by 0.2%, to 92.46. However, the cautious-negative attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains; any upward correction in the DXY index is likely to be limited to 93.00 and used to build short positions in the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR / USD is trading in the range near 1.1950, below the short-term resistance level 1.1970 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The reduction to support levels 1.1855 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.1800 is corrective.

So far, long positions are preferable. In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1970, the EUR / USD pair growth will resume with the nearest target near the resistance level 1.2100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Only in case of breakdown of the key support levels 1.1660 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA200 on the daily chart) can we speak about the reversal of the bullish trend of the EUR / USD pair.

Support levels: 1.1890, 1.1855, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1660, 1.1585

Resistance levels: 1.1970, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1910. Stop-Loss 1.1975. Take-Profit 1.1890, 1.1855, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1710, 1.1660, 1.1585

Buy Stop 1.1975. Stop-Loss 1.1910. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: indexes continue to update highs

12/01/2018

Current dynamics

While the dollar continues to scale down, the rally in the US stock market continues. On Friday, the main US indices reached new record highs, having successfully started in 2018.

Against the backdrop of the continued confidence of investors that companies will report again on the strong profit growth for the last quarter of 2017, the American stock market continues its rapid growth, which began in January 2016.

According to FactSet, the profits of companies from the S & P500 in the fourth quarter increased by about 11%. JPMorgan Chase & amp; Co. and Wells Fargo & amp; Co., part of the financial sector S & P500, today the first of the leading US banks will report on quarterly results. Economists expect profit growth.

Investors also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy.

Today, investors will follow the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of US consumer inflation data. According to the forecast, retail sales in the US are expected to grow by 0.5% in December (+ 0.8%, according to the previous release, and + 0.2% in November), CPI grew by 2.1% (in annual terms).

Nevertheless, signs of a sharp increase in inflation are still few. So, the US producer price index (PPI) for December, published on Thursday, decreased by 0.1%.

The threat that the current state of inflation may become a catalyst for the reversal of the bullish trend in the stock market is not yet relevant.

The Fed said about 3 rate increases in 2018. Nevertheless, the Fed may slow the rate of rate hikes if inflation continues to be weak and macroeconomic indicators will deteriorate. Soft monetary policy will contribute to the further growth of the US stock market. Thus, soft monetary policy, expectations of economic growth amid the new tax policy, and strong reporting by US companies continue to stimulate purchases of US stock assets.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2735.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0

Resistance levels: 2775.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2730.0. Stop-Loss 2780.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2680.0, 2640.0, 2600.0, 2550.0, 2520.0

Buy Stop 2780.0 Stop-Loss 2730.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: a day off in the US

15/01/2018

Current dynamics

Published on Friday, the macro data, pointed to the growth of inflation in the US. According to the US Ministry of Labor, CPI in December rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, the base CPI index excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.3% (+1.8% in annual expression). Economists expect that by April, annual inflation will be above 2%. This is the most important fundamental factor, as the FRS relies on this basic CPI index when assessing the need for tightening monetary policy.

Janet Yellen, leaving the post of the head of the Federal Reserve on February, said earlier that the weakness of inflation observed last year is a temporary phenomenon. The growth of inflationary pressures against the backdrop of a stable labor market and positive macro statistics gives the Fed the opportunity to raise rates this year at least three times, as expected.

At the moment, the dollar is falling large.

The US dollar index DXY fell to its lowest level since December 2014. This was promoted, first of all, by the growth of the euro. Published on Thursday, the ECB's protocols showed that leaders at the beginning of this year can change the targets of leading indicators if economic growth remains strong. Expectations of tightening monetary policy outside the United States, especially in the Eurozone, contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the growth of the euro.

The euro in the basket of 6 currencies in the dollar index DXY takes about 57%, and its growth contributes to an active decline in the dollar.

However, investors probably can underestimate the Fed's determination to raise interest rates.

In addition, the tax reform and the consistently low unemployment rate in the US (about 4.1%) create the preconditions for accelerating the growth of wages, and this is also a factor that accelerates consumer inflation. There is a high probability that in the current year rates can be raised not three, but four times.

There may be a situation where investors, skeptical about inflation and raising rates in the US, will be taken by surprise when the Fed starts raising rates quarterly, and the bearish trend of the dollar against this background will suddenly be broken.

In conditions of an increase in the interest rate, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.

Meanwhile, this week investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators in Germany and the UK (Tuesday), the Eurozone (Wednesday), China's GDP (Thursday), the Bank of Canada decision on the interest rate (Wednesday), the publication of the Beige Book Fed (Wednesday) and data from the Australian labor market (Thursday 00:30 GMT).

Economists expect that data on employment in Australia for December will be weak. Unemployment will remain at the same level of 5.4% and an excess of labor resources will remain.

It is likely that the RBA is unlikely to decide to change the current monetary policy in conditions of weak growth in the labor market and the purchasing power of the population. While the growth rate of wages in the country will not grow, the RBA will not go on raising the interest rate, despite the emerging trend towards an early tightening of monetary policies in other major world central banks.

The current growth in the AUD / USD pair is explained, first of all, by the weakening of the US dollar. If the ratio of investors to the US dollar starts to change for the better, then the bullish trend of the AUD / USD pair will not stand.

At the moment, the number of short speculative positions on the AUD / USD pair in the foreign exchange market is 90%.

Today in the US, a day off, US stock exchanges do not work, and against a background of a reduced volume of trades, large players can push the quotes of the AUD / USD pair even higher.

Well, tomorrow, with the opening of the Asian session, the situation may change in the opposite direction. It is necessary to be vigilant when building long positions in the AUD / USD pair.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7925. Stop-Loss 0.7975. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7795, 0.7710

Buy Stop 0.7975. Stop-Loss 0.7925. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8160

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: amid rising commodity prices

16/01/2018

Current dynamics

On the eve, the DXY dollar index has reached its minimum for more than three years near the 90.13 mark, and for the year of 2017 the index has decreased by almost 10%, which was the strongest annual decline since 2003. At the beginning of the European session, the DXY index is near the 90.50 mark.

After a many-day decline today for the first time there is a recovery in the US dollar.

In general, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains. Expectations that soon the world's largest central banks will begin to wind down their stimulus programs for national economies and begin to raise interest rates, increase the attractiveness of major world currencies and reduce the attractiveness of the dollar.

After strong growth over a period of ten years, American stock markets are receding into the background, and the largest regional stock markets, such as the European and Japanese stock markets, are coming to the fore. And this increases the demand for the euro and yen, for which the national stock assets are acquired. In this sense, commodity currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are especially sensitive to the cost of primary commodities on the world market, also keep pace. The observed large-scale weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices. This fully applies to oil and gas, metallic ores, as well as to agricultural products.

The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder.

In the last 203-th auction GDT (Global Dairy Trade), held on January 2, 2018, the price index for dairy products increased by 2.2%. Prices for powdered milk increased by 4.2%. The weighted average world price for dairy products was 3,124 USD / kg. And, although the prices are on average lower than the prices for the level of a year ago, there has recently been a slight increase in the price of dairy products. This, in particular, is contributed by the weakening of the US dollar, as commodity prices are mainly in US dollars.

The general elections in New Zealand that took place at the end of September, as a result of which the conservative government, which achieved significant growth in the New Zealand economy, resigned, led to the fall of the New Zealand dollar. The business-sentiment of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still at a low level, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government.

Nevertheless, the NZD / USD pair recovered completely after the fall against the background of the September elections in New Zealand. This was facilitated also by the weakening of the US dollar/

So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the pair NZD / USD still prevails.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of 2.2% (against the previous value of + 0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7310, 0.7430, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7315. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7210, 0.7090

Buy Stop 0.7315. Stop-Loss 0.7225. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: probability of rate hike is high

17/01/2018

Current dynamics

Despite the fact that the probability of today's interest rate increase in Canada is high, the Canadian dollar declined during the Asian session, and the pair USD / CAD rose today to 1.2460. In December, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 1.0% after doubling it during 2017. The head of the Bank of Canada Poloz said that when making decisions, the central bank will be guided by incoming economic data.

The current level of inflation in Canada is below the target level of 2.0%. Nevertheless, ignoring a strong labor market and rising oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, is unlikely to work either.

Most economists agree that today the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. It is likely that the Canadian dollar will strengthen on this event. However, further dynamics will depend on what the leaders of the Bank of Canada will say in the accompanying statement. If the Bank of Canada indicates that further increases will depend on the data, the upward momentum of the Canadian currency may soon weaken, while the USD / CAD pair will stop falling.

If the accompanying statement points out improvements in the economy and signals about plans for further tightening, the Canadian dollar will continue to rise. In general, today's rate increase is already taken into account in prices. Only signals about further tightening of monetary policy in Canada will cause a significant strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

The press conference of the Bank of Canada will begin at 16:15 (GMT), and the publication of the decision on the rate is scheduled for 15:00 (GMT).

Later (at 19:00) will be published economic review "Beige Book". The publication of this report by the Fed usually does not have a strong impact on markets. Nevertheless, this document will contain a look at the current state of the economy, from the point of view of leading economists, analysts, representatives of US business.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2470. Take-Profit 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Buy Stop 1.2470. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2620, 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: US dollar received support

18/01/2018

Current dynamics

Today, the dollar gained support and grew at the beginning of the Asian trading session. On Wednesday, Fed representatives, Robert Kaplan and Loretta Mester, spoke in favor of raising interest rates. They expect acceleration in the growth of the US economy and inflation. According to Robert Kaplan, inflationary pressures are "growing", and it will be better if the Fed starts raising rates "sooner rather than later".

Apple announced on Wednesday that it would repatriate most of the profits it received abroad. Under the new tax laws, US companies that make profits outside the US will be able to pay a one-time tax of 15.5% of the repatriated assets. Apple said that the company will pay a one-time tax of $ 38 billion as a result of the repatriation of its foreign cash. If other large American companies follow Apple's example, this will increase demand for the dollar.

Nevertheless, the negative mood of investors regarding the dollar is still preserved. The growth of the world economy outside the US will support the currencies of other countries where econic growth is expected, and will cause their strengthening against the dollar.

At 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States will be published. The publication of the report of the US Department of Labor about the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the last week is expected, according to which the number of initial applications for unemployment fell to 250,000 (against 261,000 in the week before last). The result higher than expected will indicate the weakness of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar. If the data is confirmed, it should positively affect the dollar. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong labor market.

Also at this time will be published indicators of activity in the real estate market in the US in December, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in January.

At 21:30 (GMT) index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) of New Zealand, assessing conditions in the business environment of the country, will be published. The production PMI is considered an important indicator of general economic conditions. In November, the PMI was 57.2. If the updated data for December will be better than November's value, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Yesterday, the NZD / USD upgraded the 2-month high near the 0.7330 mark and today again develops an upward move. So far, the negative attitude of investors to the US dollar remains, and the positive dynamics of the NZD / USD still prevails. The breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.7330 (January highs) will cause growth towards resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 Fibonacci level of 50%).

The signal to the resumption of sales of the NZD / USD will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (EMA200 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart, and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

The purpose of the downward correction is the most important support level 0.7090 (EMA200 on the daily and monthly charts, EMA50 on the weekly chart).

The breakdown of support levels 0.6865 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.6800 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the global downtrend.

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7090, 0.7000, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7430, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7340. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7100

Buy Stop 0.7340. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: correction on the dollar

19/01/2018

Current dynamics

The House of Representatives of the US Congress extended government funding until February 16. This is the fourth resolution on the provisional financing of the federal government. The issue of the suspension of the US government for the time being removed from the agenda.

If the Senate and the House of Representatives can not agree on the procedure for financing the government, then state institutions will be closed, and their employees will go on temporary unpaid leave. So it was already in 2013 because of the budget crisis.

The dollar received a temporary respite. Nevertheless, investors are following developments. On the second half of the trading day, the economic calendar is empty, there is no important news.

Therefore, the dynamics of the dollar will, in the main, be determined by technical analysis.

And on most charts of dollar currency pairs, the dollar is oversold. In the middle of the European session, there is already a technical correction, and the dollar is growing against most of the competing currencies, including against the pound.

After today (09:30 GMT), the UK National Statistics Office presented updated data on retail sales for December, which were worse than the previous release and forecast, the pound fell in the foreign exchange market.

In December, according to the report, retail sales in the UK fell by 1.5% with a forecast of a decrease of 0.8%. Reduction of retail sales in December was the strongest since June 2016, when the referendum on withdrawal from the EU was held. It also became the sharpest for December in seven years. This is a bad sign for the pound and the British economy, focused mainly on the domestic market. In the fourth quarter of 2017, retail sales, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, failed to make almost no positive contribution to GDP growth.

Until now, the large-scale weakening of the US currency contributed to the active growth of the GBP / USD pair after the referendum on Brexit.

The negative attitude of investors to the dollar remains, despite the adoption of new tax laws in the US and the Fed's determination to further tighten monetary policy. Most likely, after the "working off" of the upward correction, the dollar will resume its decline. And for the pound, more important than today's publication on retail sales, will be the publication of data on the wages of the British, expected next week.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3735, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4250



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3820. Stop-Loss 1.3910. Take-Profit 1.3800, 1.3735, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.3910. Stop-Loss 1.3820. Take-Profit 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4250

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the pair gets double support today

22/01/2018

Current dynamics

Analyzing the consequences of the temporary cessation of the work of the US government, investors reacted with restraint to the news that on Sunday the senators did not agree on voting for the bill on financing the government for one month. Pause in the work of the US government is unlikely to become a threat to the global economy, however, the major US stock indices and the dollar are moderately declining on Monday.

Last week, the dollar index DXY reached a multi-month low near the mark of 90.15, and today DXY again decreases, being at the beginning of the European session near the 90.20 mark. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds grew on Monday to 2.651% from Friday's level of 2.639%, which was the maximum for the end of the session since July 2014. The dollar receives support from the growth of yield on US bonds, restrainedly declining in the foreign exchange market, even on an unfavorable domestic political background in the United States.

Meanwhile, as it became known from media reports, on Sunday the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which adheres to the center-left views, agreed to negotiations with the conservative bloc of Angela Merkel on the creation of a coalition. Thus, the domestic political situation in Germany, whose economy is leading in Europe and the Eurozone, has improved, and Merkel overcame a key obstacle in an attempt to form the government for the fourth time.

Thus, the EUR / USD is receiving double support today and is growing again at the beginning of the European session after the pair opened today's trading day with a gap up, reaching 1.2268.

The focus of investors who trade the euro will be the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be held on Thursday. Also this week is expected a large amount of macro data on the economy of the Eurozone. On Tuesday (10:00 GMT), the ZEW Research Institute will release a January report on business sentiment and expectations in Germany. On Wednesday, PMI (preliminary release) indices for the manufacturing and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone will be published. On Thursday, the indices GfK and Ifo of the sentiment in the economy of Germany will be published. On the same day, at 12:45 (GMT), the ECB's interest rate decision will be published. It is expected that the current monetary policy of the ECB will remain unchanged, and ECB President Mario Draghi will favor the preservation of a soft monetary policy. The press conference of the ECB will begin on Thursday at 13:30 (GMT). On Friday, investors will be waiting for data on consumer confidence and business sentiment in France, as well as data on the euro money supply M3 and consumer lending (08:00 GMT). Thus, a very volatile trading week is expected.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the zone of multi-month highs, above the important support level of 1.2200, which corresponds to the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1630

Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2320, 1.2430, 1.2600



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2190. Stop-Loss 1.2290. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1630

Buy Stop 1.2290. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2320, 1.2430, 1.2600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged

23/01/2018

Current dynamics

As expected, the Bank of Japan left all three monetary policy goals unchanged during today's meeting. The report of the Bank of Japan said that expectations about the pace of economic growth and inflation remained the same, while in December the bank said that they are "in the phase of weakening". In the course of his speech, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda stated that "we have not yet reached the point at which we should discuss the exit from monetary stimulus". The Japanese stock index Nikkei added 1.3% and for the first time since November 1991 closed above 24000 points, even despite the strengthening of the yen.

During the European session, the pair USD / JPY continued to decline. The dollar has only briefly received a breather by resolving a potential crisis with funding from the US government. As it became known, yesterday the Senators approved the bill on provisional financing of the government until February 8. Nevertheless, the restrained-negative attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains, which is facilitated both by the internal political tensions in the US and by the expectations of a faster growth of the economy outside the United States, especially in countries with the world's largest economies.

At the beginning of today's European session, the DXY dollar index is near the 90.25 mark, while last week DXY reached a multi-month low near the 90.15 mark.

For today, important news on the US is not planned for publication. At 23:50 (GMT), the Ministry of Finance of Japan will publish a report with data on imports and exports, as well as the overall trade balance for December. The trade balance surplus and exports (+ 10%) of Japan are expected to increase, which will positively affect both the yen and the Japanese stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 110.15, 109.50, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 111.10, 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.30. Stop Loss 110.40. Take-Profit 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40

Sell Stop 110.40. Stop Loss 111.30. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Dollar expects further weakening

24/01/2018

Current dynamics

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to decline. Concerns about US protectionist trade policies have come to the fore once after US President Trump threatened trade barriers to Chinese goods. After that, the media reported that China intends to start getting rid of US government bonds, which led to a sharp short-term drop in the dollar. So far, the US has not imposed additional duties on imports from China. Nevertheless, on Monday, the administration of the US president announced the introduction of duties on the import of cheap solar batteries and washing machines that are produced in other countries in Asia. And this, according to the American leadership, is only the first such step in the sphere of trade.

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is growing, rising to a 3-year high of 2.63%. However, this does not support the dollar, which is actively falling against the basket of other major currencies. So, during today's European session, the dollar index DXY reached a new multi-month low near the 89.50 mark, falling below the key level of 90.00.

It is likely that in the next few months we should wait for the continuation in the US of the policy of trade restrictions on imported goods, including from China. This should lead, theoretically, to reciprocal measures on the part of the PRC. The escalation of tensions between the US and Asian countries, primarily with China, against the backdrop of the protectionist trade policy of the White House will lead to an even weaker dollar. Moreover, a cheaper dollar is beneficial to the US economy. A strong national currency has a negative impact on the US economy, making US exports less affordable for overseas buyers. Trump has repeatedly stated that the US foreign trade deficit has reached an impressive $ 500 billion precisely for this reason.

On Monday, economists at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported that, according to their calculations, the US dollar is still overvalued by about 10%, despite the fact that last year the dollar has already decreased by 7% against a basket of 16 currencies tracked by Wall Street Journal. Thus, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 14:45 (GMT) of business activity indexes (PMI) in the services sector and manufacturing sector in the US for January. The publication of indicators with strong values is expected. If they exceed their expectations, the dollar may strengthen for a moment.

From the fundamental point of view, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.

Meanwhile, at 09:30 (GMT), data from the British labor market was published, indicating that the unemployment rate in November was 4.3%, which is the minimum for the past 40 years. The number of new jobs also reached a record high, while the number of unemployed fell to a minimum in more than 15 years. Such data was cited by the National Statistics Office of Great Britain.

However, higher demand for labor did not lead to an acceleration in the growth of wages of the British. The worsening of the financial situation of consumers after the referendum on Brexit, apparently, continues.

Nevertheless, the pound reacted with growth on the data presented. The GBP / USD pair updated the annual and multi-month high near the 1.4115 mark. For the last time at this point, the pair GBP / USD was at the end of June 2016, on the eve of the referendum on Brexit.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Levels of resistance: 1.4100, 1.4180, 1.4250



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4070. Stop-Loss 1.4135. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.4135. Stop-Loss 1.4070. Take-Profit 1.4180, 1.4250

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: what will Mario Draghi now say?

25/01/2018

Current dynamics

Unconditional center of attention of traders today is the meeting devoted to the issues of monetary policy and the ECB press conference. The probability that the ECB's current basic interest rates will remain at the same level (the key rate is 0%, the deposit rate is -0.4%), and the volume of purchases of European assets is at the level of 30 billion euros per month, close to 100 %.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to scale down. This week, the dollar received additional impetus to the fall from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which said that the US dollar, according to their calculations, is still overvalued by about 10%, from the administration of the US president who signed decrees on limiting the import of cheap Asian goods,

as well as from the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that "a weaker dollar has a positive effect on trade".

Over the past 3 weeks, the dollar index DXY fell 3.3% to 88.8 points, to a three-year low (from December 2014). The euro strengthened over these three weeks to the dollar at the same 3.3% (the euro's share in the basket of the DXY index is about 58%).

Undoubtedly, the Eurodollar has grown in recent months not only due to the weakening of the dollar, but also due to the growth of the economy of the Eurozone, which is ahead of the growth rate of the American economy.

However, a strong euro is also not needed by the European economy, as a strong dollar - to the US economy. This, in full measure, refers to other major world economies. It is not excluded that after the strengthening of national currencies to the dollar, the world's central banks will undertake retaliatory actions.

Investors today will closely monitor what Mario Draghi will say about the strengthened euro and the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone. Given the current strengthening of the euro against the dollar, Mario Draghi is unlikely to talk about curtailing the stimulus program for the European economy and will try to cool the zeal of euro buyers.

If "Eurobulls" will be disappointed with Draghi's speech, then the EUR / USD pair may be corrected. Nevertheless, in the medium term, the pair EUR / USD should continue to grow.

Investors will still try to understand today how much the ECB's attitude towards the strengthening of the Eurodollar will be tolerated. In any case, in the period from 12:45 (GMT), when the ECB's decision on the rates will be published, until 13:30, when the ECB press conference begins, a surge in volatility in financial markets is expected.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD keeps positive dynamics, has been trading in the zone of multi-month highs, above the important support levels of 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

The pair EUR / USD broke yesterday the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, which indicates a strong upward impulse. The target of further growth is resistance levels 1.2600 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 1.2650 (the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart and the line of the convergent triangle on the monthly chart).

The target of the downward correction in case of breakdown of the support level 1.2360 will be support levels of 1.2200, 1.2060 (highs of 2017), 1.2000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, long positions are still preferable. Only in case of breakdown of key support levels 1.1680 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1.1650 (EMA200 on the daily chart) we can speak about the reversal of the bullish trend of the EUR / USD.

Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650

Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US stock indexes are still growing

26/01/2018

Current dynamics

During the US trading session on Thursday, US President Trump, in an interview with CNBC at the International Economic Forum in Davos, said that "the dollar will become stronger and stronger, and I want to see a strong dollar after all". This statement by Trump goes against his last year's statements about the usefulness of a cheap dollar for the more successful promotion of American goods to the foreign market. This, in particular, and the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said on Wednesday. In his opinion, "a weaker dollar has a positive effect on trade".

After yesterday's statement by Trump, the dollar jumped sharply in price, and the EUR / USD pair decreased by 120 points in a moment. Nevertheless, during the Asian session on Friday, the pressure on the dollar resumed, and its decline continued with renewed vigor.

The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 16 other major currencies, fell 0.5% at the beginning of the session on Friday. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index DXY fell by 3.3% to 88.3 points, to a three-year low (from December 2014). At the beginning of the European session DXY is near the mark of 88.70.

According to market participants, the large-scale decline in the dollar will continue. The reasons for the reversal of its bearish trend so far there.

At the same time, the US stock market continues to grow. This is facilitated by both a weak dollar and positive corporate reporting by US companies.

Rally on the US stock market continues. On Friday, the main US indices reached new record highs, having successfully started in 2018.

Investors also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy.

Traders are preparing for the performance of Trump in Davos, which will be held today at 13:00 (GMT).

Market participants are also waiting for preliminary data on US GDP for the 4th quarter. According to the forecast of economists, GDP growth in the 4th quarter was 2.9% - 3.0% per annum. This will be another high indicator. Data on US GDP will be published at 13:30 (GMT).

Strong growth in the US economy will be another factor in favor of further growth of US stock indices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2800.0, 2740.0, 2680.0, 2610.0, 2550.0

Resistance levels: 2850.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2795.0. Stop-Loss 2855.0. Objectives 2740.0, 2680.0, 2610.0, 2550.0

Buy Stop 2855.0 Stop-Loss 2795.0. Objectives 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: there is an eventful week

29/01/2018

Current dynamics

On Monday, the dollar makes an attempt to adjust after a long day's fall. The dollar index DXY recovered to the beginning of the European session, halving the Friday's decline and reaching the level of 89.10. On Friday, the dollar closed with a decline for the seventh week in a row, and this was the longest period of decline since 2010.

The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, also rose by 0.2% on Monday, recovering slightly after falling to new 3-year lows last week.

The large-scale decline in the dollar last week was facilitated by the decision of the White House administration to impose restrictions on the importation of a number of goods produced in Asian countries in the US, as well as the statement of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "the weakening of the dollar is favorable for trade". Despite the current correction, the dollar remains vulnerable. The negative attitude of investors towards the dollar is preserved, and its bearish trend remains predominant.

A series of important economic news are expected to come out this week, beginning with the Fed meeting, ending with the publication on Friday of data from the US labor market for January. In view of this, volatility in the financial markets will continue to be increased.

With regard to the Eurozone, it is worthwhile to pay attention to the publication on Tuesday of preliminary data on Eurozone and France GDP for the 4th quarter (10:00 GMT) and consumer price inflation data in Germany for January (13:00 GMT). On Wednesday (10:00 GMT) report on inflation in the Eurozone for January, as well as data on employment in the Eurozone and Germany (09:00 GMT) for January, will be published. On Thursday, the PMI is expected for the manufacturing sector in Italy, France, Germany (08:45, 08:50, 08:55 (GMT), respectively), Euro zone (09:00) from Markit. Data on consumer inflation in Italy and producer prices in the Eurozone will come out on Friday (10:00 GMT).

However, the focus of traders will be the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market in January. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 175,000, which is above the average for six months of 166,000 (the previous value was +148,000). Unemployment remained at 4.1% in January, hourly wages of Americans increased by 0.3%.

If the data is confirmed or will be better, it is worth waiting for the strengthening of the dollar. How much the dollar will be strengthened will depend on data from the US labor market and comments from the Fed's leaders on the future plans of the US Central Bank regarding its monetary policy. The publication of comments by the Federal Reserve on monetary policy is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, along with the publication of the Fed's decision on rates.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Last week, the EUR / USD reached another multi-month high near the 1.2535 mark, continuing to move in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, and trying to gain a foothold in the zone above the important level of 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).

The closest targets in the case of continued growth in EUR / USD are resistance levels 1.2600 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.2650 (the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart and the top line of the convergent triangle on the monthly graphics). In case of breakdown of the level of 1.2650, the agenda will raise the question of the ECB's further plans for monetary policy and how much the ECB will tolerate against a strong euro. From a technical point of view, the next medium-term target is the resistance level 1.3900 (Fibonacci level of 100%, ie the beginning of the last wave of EUR / USD decline in May 2014).

There is a strong upward momentum and a bullish trend. Long positions are preferred.

Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2440. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680

Buy Stop 1.2440. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: it is not easy to deploy the strong bearish trend of the dollar

30/01/2018

Current dynamics

After the growth during the Asian session on Tuesday, the dollar again began to decline at the beginning of the European session. As the data published at 10:00 GMT by Eurostat showed, the Eurozone GDP growth in 2017 was the fastest in the last 10 years (+ 2.5% vs. + 1.8% in 2016).

The index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in January rose to 1.3 against 0.5 in December. The index of business optimism in the industry of the Eurozone in January 8.8, in the service sector 16.7 against 18.0 in December. The Eurozone economy demonstrates excellent growth rates, and the high level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone also indicates economic growth and strengthens the euro.

At the beginning of the European session, data on France's GDP were published, and according to the French national statistics agency Insee data, the GDP of the second largest economy of the Eurozone in 2017 grew by 1.9% compared to the previous year. The growth rate of the French economy accelerated sharply in 2017. The GDP of France has shown the most significant increase since 2011. The improvement of the economic situation in France was promoted by the policy of the European Central Bank aimed at stimulating the country's economy, as well as increasing consumer confidence caused by the election of Emmanuel Macron as French president. Macron spoke during his election campaign for France's further membership in the European Union and the strengthening of economic rapprochement with Germany. His convincing victory speaks of the centripetal sentiment of French citizens towards the European Union. Companies and investors have favorably taken steps to reduce taxes and eliminate bureaucratic obstacles. The revival of the French economy contributed to the growth of the economy of the entire monetary block to the highest level since 2007.

On the day when the results of the second round of elections in France became known, where the pro-European politician Macron won the victory, the euro rose sharply. This day (May 7) can rightfully be considered the starting point for the confident growth of the euro and the EUR / USD in the second half of 2017.

The data published today confirm the fact that the European economy is growing at a faster rate than the US economy.

This once again can remind investors that other major world economies outside the US are expected to grow faster, which may contribute to a more aggressive monetary policy of world central banks. All this together can contribute to the accelerated strengthening of national currencies against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the recent contradictory statements by officials and the actions of US authorities, including US President Trump, only exacerbate the negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.

So, last Thursday, after the statement of US President Donald Trump that the US currency should be "strong", the dollar grew. A day earlier, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said the opposite, dropping the dollar to a new three-year low.

During the economic forum in Davos, Trump again threatened to take action against trading partners. This time he hinted at a possible response to the "very unfair" EU trade policy against the United States. "I have a lot of problems with the EU," Trump said in an interview with the British media. Earlier, Trump had repeatedly said that multilateral trade agreements discriminated against the US. He threatened to take action. All this causes concern of investors in connection with the probability of imposing restrictions on trade and unleashing the world trade war. In January, the administration of the White House has already imposed such restrictions on the importation into the United States of a number of goods produced in Asian countries.

This week, the focus of traders will be the Fed meeting and the publication on Friday of data from the US labor market. On Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the Fed will publish decision on monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%. Monthly data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture, the unemployment rate and hourly pay for Americans will be published on Friday at 13:30 (GMT). Strong data are expected. Nevertheless, they are unlikely to be enough to deploy a strong bearish trend of the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680

Resistance levels: 1.2430, 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2440. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680

Buy Stop 1.2440. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan policy will remain soft

31/01/2018

Current dynamics

Dollar index DXY rose on Tuesday to 89.45, however, at the beginning of today's European session again decreases, approaching the level of 88.80. The value of US bonds continued to decline. The yield on 10-year bonds rose on Tuesday to 2.725% (the highest level in almost four years) from 2.695% on Monday. Nevertheless, this did not help the dollar and did not allow it to consolidate the upward correction, which turned out to be very short-term.

And today, against the background of the declining yield of 10-year US bonds, the dollar is becoming cheaper again. Market participants are preparing for the main event of today - publication of the Fed decision on rates (19:00 GMT). It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%. Nevertheless, volatility may increase if market participants find something new in the texts of comments by the Fed regarding further plans to tighten monetary policy. In the dollar quotations, there are already 2 increases in interest rates this year. The Fed outlined three increases. More bold predictions suggest 4 increases in the rate, i.е. quarterly. The bearish trend of the dollar at the moment may be break, perhaps, just by such a scenario.

The dollar is falling, as investors expect faster economic growth rates outside the US, which will contribute to a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the world's largest central banks. This, in turn, will lead to the growth of national currencies against the dollar.

It is noteworthy that the dollar continues to fall even today against the yen after the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed during today's Asian session that the Japanese central bank will continue to pursue a soft monetary policy in order to further accelerate inflation. "We are striving to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% as soon as possible, and this is facilitated by the further implementation of monetary easing", Kuroda said in a speech at the country's parliamentary committee. Thus, he tried to cool down the recent assumptions about tightening the policy. Talks about a possible increase in rates in Japan later this year contributed to the strengthening of the yen recently. "... There is a long way to go to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% ...", said one of the board members at the meeting held on January 22-23, when the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-soft monetary policy unchanged, and also kept its forecasts on inflation and GDP growth unchanged. The central bank still expects to achieve an inflation rate of 2% only by March 2020.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 108.30, 108.00, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 106.00

Resistance levels: 109.45, 110.15, 111.00, 111.60, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 109.30. Stop Loss 108.50. Take-Profit 109.45, 110.15, 111.00, 111.60

Sell Stop 108.50. Stop Loss 109.30. Take-Profit 108.30, 108.00, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 106.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: amid rising price pressure

01/02/2018

Current dynamics

As the research company IHS Markit Ltd. reported today, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 against 56.2 in December and the forecast of 56.5. Although the index values above 50 indicate activity in the manufacturing sector, the data suggest that growth in activity slowed to a 6-month low against the backdrop of rising price pressures on companies and consumers.

In January, the index became minimal since June, as the shortage of raw materials and rising prices on it against the background of the accelerated inflation in the UK after the referendum on Brexit negatively affected the release of finished products, and the costs again grew. Procurement prices grew at the fastest pace in 11 months. Brexit remains the main theme that affects the pound at the moment. At the same time, company IHS Markit Ltd., which calculates the index, reported that the index remains "well above the long-term average of 51.7" and still indicates the growth of new export orders.

The pound declined slightly after the publication of the PMI index. The positive dynamics of the pound was supported, in particular, by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who in his speech in the upper house of the British parliament earlier this week said that he sees signs of accelerating the growth of wages in the UK due to higher demand for labor. "The demand for labor in the UK is growing, the pace of wage increases is accelerating", in his opinion, while "real income growth this year will resume." "Real incomes (households) this year may return to growth," added Carney. In his view, Brexit will have an impact on inflation rates for several more years, although the effect of the collapse of the British currency has already basically passed. Meanwhile, the pound remains stable against the dollar, which is growing today against the yen and commodity currencies, despite the fact that commodity and oil prices, again, have pushed up.

The dollar slightly reacted to the results of Wednesday's two-day Fed meeting, in which the Fed's interest rates were left unchanged in the range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The statement of the Fed was, on the whole, positive. The central bank signaled the strengthening of confidence in the optimistic outlook for the economy. Heads of the Fed expressed their hope that inflation will grow in 2018. "The level of employment, household expenses and companies' investments were marked by a significant growth, while the unemployment rate remained low", the Federal Reserve said in a statement.

Investors have already pawned in prices a 2-time rate increase this year. If the Fed will raise rates at a faster pace, then the dollar can break the already established multi-month negative trend. In a statement published on Wednesday the Fed has a hint that this year rates can be raised more than three times.

We are waiting for data from the USA today. In the period from 13:30 to 15:00 (GMT), data will be published on the number of initial jobless claims for the last week, labor productivity for the fourth quarter (preliminary release), PMI in the manufacturing sector of the US economy and gradual acceleration of inflation.

The dollar may continue its corrective growth if the data prove to be better than the forecast, while the GBP / USD will turn south, for now - in the short term while.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4180, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4160. Stop-Loss 1.4290. Take-Profit 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210

Buy Stop 1.4290. Stop-Loss 1.4160. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: investors are nervous, US stock indices are falling

02/02/2018

Current dynamics

After the Fed meeting this week, investors are preparing to publishing data from the US labor market for January. Publication of data is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Strong data are expected. Thus, unemployment, according to economists, in January remained at the level of 4.1%.

This is the lowest value in 17 years. Moreover, many economists expect that during 2018, unemployment in the US may fall below 4%. This has not been observed since 2000.

A strong US labor market is becoming the most important factor in the growth of the US economy.

According to the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 21 to 27 January fell by 1,000 and amounted to 230,000 (last year it was projected 238,000 and 231,000 applications). In January, the number of applications reached the lowest level in almost 45 years. The number of applications below the level of 300,000 has been observed for almost three years. This is the longest series since the 1970s.

Low unemployment indicates an increase in demand for labor resources for US companies, which in turn will contribute to higher wages for employees. And this will lead to an increase in consumer spending, GDP and inflation, which the Fed was so eager for.

Other articles of the report of the US Department of Labor are also expected with high efficiency. So,

hourly wages of Americans increased by 0.3% (+ 2.6% in annual terms), and the number of jobs outside of agriculture in January increased by 180 thousand (previous value is +148 thousand), which is above the average for six months 166,000.

The dollar is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value relative to the basket of 6 other currencies, also grows after its fall to a level of multi-month lows near the mark of 88.25. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY has already risen to the level of 88.70.

It seems that investors are serious about the growth of the dollar after a strong report from the US labor market. Well, in just a few hours details of the report of the US Department of Labor for January will be known. If the data really turn out to be strong, then the dollar will continue to grow, but, according to many market participants, it will continue to be limited.

Meanwhile, US and world stock markets are declining before the publication of the monthly US labor market report and after the publication of disappointing corporate reports and the sale of government bonds. Stoxx Europe 600 in the early trading lost 0.6% after the decline in the Japanese market.

Despite the fact that US indices remain at a record level, investors are beginning to get nervous against the backdrop of the growing yield of US government bonds, which reached multi-year highs. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 2.796% from 2.792% on Thursday and 2.712% on Wednesday (the highest level in almost four years).

Participants in the stock markets are beginning to understand that the yield of government bonds is growing, which makes the Fed easier to raise interest rates, which is a negative factor for the stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2800.0, 2766.0, 2740.0, 2670.0, 2630.0, 2560.0

Resistance levels: 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2790.0. Stop-Loss 2835.0. Objectives 2766.0, 2740.0, 2670.0, 2630.0, 2560.0

Buy Stop 2835.0 Stop-Loss 2790.0. Objectives 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com