Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next sell target - 9500.00

DAX continues to fall inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the index reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 10400.00, upper daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from November and the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from February.

The index is currently trading near the support trendline of the aforementioned up channel. If the price breaks this support trendline – DAX can then fall to the next sell target at the support level 9500.00 (low of the previous wave B).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8864

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Flag" as a sign to the coming new low
6 May 2016

Yesterday the price reached a support at 1.1398, which successfully stopped bears for a while. However, the market is likely going to get the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be a chance to see a growth towards a resistance at 1.1453 – 1.1464.

We've got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so the pair is likely going to achieve the next support near the up-trend’s line. If bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1437.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8873

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears extract everything from the Wedge
6 May 2016

The price faced a support at 1.4458, so bulls are trying to show us a local correction. However, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305 subsequently. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance for an upward movement.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress under the Moving Average lines. The pair is probably going to reach a support at 1.4343 in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8874

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: expectations for NFP
6 May 2016
Consensus forecast for NFP: 203K (Previous: 215K)

Consensus forecast for unemployment rate: 5.5% (Previous: 5.0%)

Consensus forecast for NFP: 0.3% (Previous: 0.3%)

Bank of America: Nonfarm payrolls will show a good gain of 200K, unemployment rate will hold at 5%, although there’s risk that it will increase because of the higher participation rate. Average hourly earnings will rise by only 0.2% on the monthly basis. Buy US dollar ahead of the NFP release as the labor market stability will be enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in June.

Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K, while unemployment rate will decline to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.

Credit Agricole: NFP will add 190K with unemployment rate staying at 5.0%. As global financial conditions, the Fed will adopt a more optimistic tone.

SEB: NFP will show 180K gain,unemployment rate should decrease to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.

Deutsche Bank: After ADP employment report for April disappointed, the market is pricing in a reading around 175K. If NFP is closer to 200k, this will be mildly positive for the US dollar. In this case consider buying US versus Australian and Canadian dollars. If NFP is lower, in 100-125K range, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will decline. Consider selling USD/JPY, if it happens. NFP reading below 100K will make USD decline against JPY, CHF and probably USD, but commodity currencies will also fall because of negative risk sentiment.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8875

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" points to a correction
6 May 2016

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” on the last support line, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support line and continue falling down afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s no any reversal patterns so far, which means bears will probably try to return into the market soon.

There’s a strong support, which brought some reversal patterns such a “High Wave”, a “Harami” and an “Engulfing”. Therefore, it’s likely to see an achievement the 55 Moving Average as well as the nearest “Window”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8876

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for May 9-15
6 May 2016
Kira Iukhtenko

It has been another volatile week for the British pound. GBP/USD pushed to 1.4760 and retraced lower from this area. There is a strong resistance clustered at these levels: trend line, connecting the late-2015 peaks. Technically, we still see potential for a stronger move to 1.5000/5200 in the nearest future, so a break above 1.4760 would justify new short-term GBP longs. We stay medium-term bullish above 1.4400. This outlook will be negated in case if the cable slips below 1.4400.

Remember that the forthcoming UK referendum (June 23) poses an imminent risk to the upbeat view on the sterling. The risk of Great Britain leaving the EU hasn’t been priced in yet. European politicians are now doing their best to calm the “leave” mood down, but market uncertainty is still expected to increase by the end of May. That’s why we find a break above 1.5200 very unlikely this year, so get ready to sell the pound on rallies to these levels – if the rallies happen.

As for the economic calendar, watch the UK manufacturing production on Wednesday. On Thursday, don’t miss the Bank of England meeting and inflation report. The UK central bank is now consumed with preparing contingency plans for the potential Brexit, so the question of rate hike is off the table these days. Pay attention to the Marc Carney’s comments on the issue – he could point to high risks associated with the EU referendum.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8880

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for May 9-15

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week EUR/USD rose to 9-month high at 1.1614 before correcting down.

Strong euro is very unwelcome by the European Central Bank as it affects the region’s already low inflation and weak economic growth. Euro area’s flash GDP for Q1 is due next Friday. The European Commission cut its forecast for euro zone growth this year from 1.7% to 1.6%. Higher euro is bad for the European exports and stocks. So far, the latest increases in the ECB’s huge monetary stimulus didn’t drive the single currency down. However, there are no bullish drivers for the euro from the euro area, and the risk of more action from the ECB to weaken the currency should limit the euro’s advance. There’s also an opinion that investors from outside of Europe will sell their European assets, thus selling the euro.

Note, however, that American data doesn’t give much reason for stronger US dollar. Labor market data weren’t very bright and the prospect of the Fed’s rate this summer is under big question. Technically, declining 100-week MA at 1.1637 is a strong obstacle for the euro bulls. Weekly close below 1.1460 will confirm the bearish candle with a long upper shadow signaling a temporary top. Yet, there are little reason to expect a big decline in EUR/USD. Bearish correction should find support at 1.1300/1.1250. The bulls need to return above 1.1500 to regain power.

Other events in European economic calendar next week include German factory orders and the Eurogroup meetings on Monday and industrial production data on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8881

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for May 9-15

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY hit 105.55, the lowest level since October 2014. Then US currency managed to get a bit higher thanks to brighter comments of the Federal Reserve’s members. US economic data were mixed: ISM manufacturing index disappointed, but services index exceeded expectations. American nonfarm payrolls also missed expectations. All in all, at this point strengthening in the greenback looks more like a correction or consolidation.

The main reason behind the yen’s strength was the lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan in April. Forex intervention to weaken yen are unlikely at this point with Japan hosting the next key G7 meeting on May 26-27, especially if further decline in USD/JPY is gradual.

Another important factor for USD/JPY is the market’s risk sentiment, with which the pair is closely correlated. Japanese stocks are declining because of the weak corporate earnings, and this doesn’t make investors feel optimistic. Watch Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday. Weaker Chinese PMIs already affected USD/JPY in the past days.

Support is at 105.20 (October 2014 low, 100-week MA), 105.00 (psychological level) ahead of 103.70 (May 2013 high). Resistance is at 108.30, 110.00 and 111.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8882

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Gold: forecast for May 9-15

Kira Iukhtenko

Gold price spent the week in a consolidative mode, forming a doji candle. Bullion failed to overcome the $1300 resistance for now (January 2015 highs), but we expect the bullish move to be extended after a short-term correction.

The Friday’s US job report caused a volatility boost for the yellow metal: price gapped higher to $1280, but has quickly retraced gains. We believe the sluggish labor market lowers the chance for a hawkish Fed in June. This is negative for the greenback and positive for gold.

Trade idea: BUY gold on a decisive close above $1300, TP1 at $1325 (next major resistance, 200-week MA), TP2 at $1345, STOP LOSS at $1280

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8883

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for May 9-15

Kira Iukhtenko

US labor market data came out mixed on Friday. The economy added only 160K new jobs in April, while the March reading was revised down to 208K. At the same time, average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 0.3%.

The US Dollar developed a bullish correction last week and extended the move on Friday, retracing from the 92 points low to almost 94 points. From the technical view, the US currency found support at the 2015 lows.

However, the jobs report failed to shed the light on the Fed’s decision at the June meeting – there is still a lot of uncertainty. In our view, the economic data is not strong enough to justify a hawkish Fed in June, so the greenback still remains highly vulnerable for selling in the coming weeks. A double top with targets around 80 points could be formed in the coming months.

Watch the US crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday. On Thursday pay attention to jobless claims data and import prices. FOMC members George and Rosengren will deliver their speeches as well. On Friday the market focus will turn to the producer price index and retail sales data.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8884

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: forecast for May 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

AUD/USD fell from the levels above 0.7700 below 0.7400. The Reserve bank of Australia cut benchmark interest rate from 2% to the record low of 1.75%. In addition, the RBA cut its inflation forecast for the end of this year from a range of 2-3% to just 1-2%. Inflation outlook for 2017 and 2018 was also revised to the downside. According to the central bank, economic prospects of China – one of Australia’s biggest trading partners – is a “key source of uncertainty.”

In these circumstances, it looks like Aussie has room for further weakness. Below 0.7330/15 AUD/USD will be vulnerable for a decline to 0.7250 and 0.7215. On the upside the pair will meet resistance at 0.7400, 0.7450 and 0.7500.

Watch the market’s risk sentiment and keep an eye on Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8886

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Thorn" helped bears to reach the low
9 May 2016

The price faced the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1327 in the short term. If so, an upward correction becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1398 – 1.1437 as a probable next bullish target.

There’s a “V-Top”, which led to the current decline. The market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1437 during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1369 – 1.1339.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8888

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: one more "V-Top"
9 May 2016

The pair has been falling down since a “Wedge” was ended. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305 in the short term. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on a resistance at 1.4473 – 1.4513.

There’s a local flat in progress between a resistance at 1.4443 and a support at 1.4402. It’s likely that the pair is going to test a resistance at 1.4472 on Monday. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a new low very soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8889

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20
9 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20
-Next buytarget - 74.60

NZD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the major support level 73.20 (which has reversed the previous sharp impulse waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below). The support level 73.20 is the lower boundary of the powerful support zone which has been reversing the price from August of 2015. The support zone near the support level73.20 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the strength of the support level 73.20 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/JPY can be expected to correct up to the next resistance level 74.60 (top of the aforementioned price range).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8890

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430
9 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430
-Next buy target - 1.5690

EUR/AUD recently broke through the resistance level 1.5430, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April. The active impulse wave 3 started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 1.5200 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous B-wave).

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5690.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8891

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Belt Hold" has stopped bears
9 May 2016

We’ve got a “Belt Hold” on the 55 Moving Average, so there's an opportunity to see the market rising in the short term. Also, there's a “Doji” on the Daily chart, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Anyway, today’s candle is likely going to be white.

The price faced with a strong resistance by the last “Three Methods” pattern on the 21 Moving Average. At the same time, the market hasn't reached the nearest “Window”, so it could be achieved soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8892

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Hammer" scared all bears away
9 May 2016

The nearest “Window” has been broken, so the market is likely going to reach the next “Window” in the short term, because we don’t have any reversal patterns so far. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re two “Hammers” at the last low. Under this circumstances, the pair is probably going to test the 13 Moving Average.

The price has successfully formed a pullback from the nearest support line, which brought a “Harami” pattern on it. The last candles are bullish, so the market is likely going to taste the upper “Window” shortly.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8893

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears are preparing for a correction
10 May 2016

There's a “Thorn” pattern, which helped bears to move on. Currently, the price achieved the 55 Moving Average and the uptrend line. Considering previously formed bearish patterns, it's likely that the market is going to break these levels. If so, the main bearish target will be a support at 1.1327, which is strong enough to enter the pair into an upward correction phase.

We've got a new low, but overall the pair is moving in a flat. So, the price is likely going to get a support somewhere on the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, there'll likely be even more bearish pressure on the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8900

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" has stopped the decline
10 May 2016

The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which stopped bears. However, the current downtrend is likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.4343 – 1.4305. Therefore, a bullish correction becomes possible afterwards.

There's a flat in progress under the Moving Averages. It's likely that the market is going to reach a resistance at 1.4406 during the day. At the same time, bears still have enough power to deliver a new low subsequently.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8901

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

United Overseas Bank: targets for FX majors
10 May 2016

EUR/USD: Neutral: Downside has potential to extend lower to 1.1300

GBP/USD: Neutral: Daily fix below 1.4400 could lead to more declines to 1.4300

AUD/USD: Bearish: Expect slow move lower, below 0.7300 targets 0.7240

USD/JPY: Switch from neutral to bullish: Recovery to extend higher to 109.70

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8902