Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls has shattered the "Window"
27 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The last “Three Methods” pattern did a great job as the price has broken the Moving Average lines. Moreover, it's likely to see a new “Three Methods” soon. If so, the market is likely going to move on towards the upper resistance levels. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold” at the last low. Therefore, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish as well as yesterday’s one.

There’s a “Three Methods” above the Moving Average. The market is likely going to test these lines during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, buyers will be more that just happy to deliver a new high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8762

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
27 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
-Next selltargets - 1.1030 and 1.0960

AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 3 - which started earlier – when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.1250 and 1.1340. This resistance zone has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from last year, as can be seen from the daily AUD/NZD chart below. The aforementioned resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

Having recently broken through the support trendline from the middle of January - AUD/NZD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.1030 and 1.0960.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8763

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630
27 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630
-Next sell target - 0.9550

AUD/CAD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) – which started earlier - when the pair reversed down from the parity. The price today broke through the pivotal support level 0.9630 (which stopped the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of March, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD chart below).

The breakout of the support level 0.9630 is likely to intensify the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9550 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8764

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Oil: the major trends of the week
27 April 2016

The week is still respectively positive for oil against the background of several crucial factors, including the following key issues: the US dollar easing, the US oil reserve decreasing and OPEC member’s disagreements about several fields development.

A key factor, influencing the oil quotes now and probably the next few weeks, is the fact that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran are planning to increase oil production volume. Saudi Arabia is upgrading the Shaybah field capacity, that may produce additional oil volume within the coming months, if the modernization is finished according to the plans, i.e. by June of the current year.

Kuwait’s oil production suffered last week because of oil workers’ strike, but as it ended oil will be produced more actively in Kuwait.

Iran continues to increase oil production, willing to return to the value before sanctions. Starting from the current year, the daily production performance is increased by 1 million barrel; that consequently leads to target value of 4 million barrels per day.

However, there is a number of crucial factors too: firstly, the US oil reserve report for the previous week shows the decrease by 1.1 million barrel, thought the increase by 2.4 million barrel was expected. The American Petroleum Institute (API) relies on the previously received data and says that the current oil reserve volume is on 538.4-million-barrel level.

By the same token, there is information about Saudi Arabia’s and Kuwait’s inability to continue Khafji field development. Let us remind, that the field was closed in October 2014 due to the environmental issues. The field’s potential is estimated as 300 thousand barrels per day, and it may lead to higher oil productivity of both counties, but the field seems to be still closed for now.

Moreover, one of the key factors is the US dollar easing prior to the Federal Reserve meeting. Despite the fact that the US dollar adjustments and its further easing are both possible after the meeting, investors are careful and tend to believe in the continuation of the “cheep” dollar era and the Fed rate stability in the near future. The factor positively influences the crude material price and supports both oil benchmarks.

The trades of current week:

At the time of writing (Wednesday, April 27), both benchmark crude oils are being traded around the 5-month maximum level prior to the Fed meeting results.

Starting from Monday, Brent crude oil shows the increase by $1.65 per barrel and reaches the $46.55 level. The maximum growth was noticed on Tuesday evening (April 26), when investors started selling the US dollars actively. WTI Crude oil reacts in the similar way: it is traded at $44,88 level, near the key level of $45. The US crude oil increased by $1.3 from Monday in total.

Brent/WTI, H1

If the Fed meeting’s results are negative to the US dollar, both oil benchmarks may show the increase by 1.5-2.5%. The Brent oil target value is $47.25 per barrel, the WYI oil target value is $46 per barrel.

In case of the Fed meeting’s positive results, both benchmark may be traded down; the expected support level for Brent crude oil is around the $44.5 level, and WTI crude oil is supported at $43 per barrel.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8770

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 28

By Elizabeth Belugina

A very important event for the US dollar is due on Wednesday: the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting will be released at 18:00 GMT. The change in the central bank’s interest rate is very unlikely, so the main thing to watch will be the Fed’s statement. There are some more hawkish members within the Fed, so the central bank may prepare ground for a potential rate hike this summer. Yet, the central bank will probably try to sound balanced. The main thing to watch is whether the phrases about “unstable situation at global financial markets” and “risks for global economy as a whole and the US economy in particular” remain in the text of the statement. If they do, the US currency will remain under negative pressure. If they don’t, the greenback will gain versus other majors.

Later on Wednesday watch Japanese inflation and retail sales figures: the forecasts are negative. There’s also chance that the Bank of Japan will ease policy on Thursday. You can learn more about trading on the Japanese central bank’s decision here.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will take place on Wednesday night. Support for NZD/USD is at 0.7800/7780, while resistance is at 0.6900/50.

Resistance for EUR/USD lies in 1.1350/1.1375 area, while support is at 1.1215/1.1190. The advance of GBP/USD stalled as British economic growth pace decline in Q1. Support is at 1.4550 and 1.4500. Resistance is at 1.4640/70.

AUD/USD fell below 0.7600 as Australian CPI unexpectedly contracted in Q1. This revived expectations of potential RBA rate cut next week. Watch support at 0.7560 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7400. Resistance is at 0.7690.

Find more analysis for the major currency pairs in the video.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8772

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Flag" brought a flat into the market
28 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been moving up and down between a resistance at 1.1364 and a support at 1.1269. Also, there's a possible downward “Wadge”, so the market is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to break the “Wadge’s” upper side.

There's a flat in progress under the local downtrend line. It's likely that the market is going to reach a resistance at 1.1339 – 1.1348 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.1295 as a possible bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8774

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: the downtrend line is restraining bears
28 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has faced a resistance at 1.4638, which led to form a “Double Top” pattern. The pair was falling down afterwards, but bears has been stopped by a “Thorn”. It’s likely that the market is going to decline towards a support at 1.4473 – 1.4458. If we see a pullback from these levels, the downtrend line will have a chance to be broken.

There’s a downward correction in progress, which brought a “Thorn” pattern at the local low. So, the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4588 – 1.4620. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.4495 – 1.4469.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next selltarget - 81.30

AUD/JPY continues to fall inside the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3), which started earlier, when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 86.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January, as can be seen below), 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from December and the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from last year.

AUD/JPY is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 81.30 (which stopped previous impulse wave (1) at the start of April).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8779

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY completed minor ABC correction 4
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY completed minor ABC correction 4
-Next sell target - 155.00

GBP/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone located between resistance level 162.30 (which also previously reversed the price at the end of March, as can be seen from the daily GBP/JPY chart below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 3 from the start of February. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction 4.

With the daily Stochastic still moving in the overbought area - GBP/JPY can be expected to fall down further toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Strong resistance now stands at 162.30.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8780

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

FTSE 100 reversed from resistance zone
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-FTSE 100 reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 6160.00

FTSE 100 continues to fall inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the index reversed down from the strong resistance zone surrounding the major resistance level 6400.00 (which has been reversing the index from September of 2015, as can be seen from the daily FTSE 100 chart below). The aforementioned resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from last May.

FTSE 100 is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 6160.00 (former strong resistance level, which has been reversing the index in March).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8781

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls has broken the "Wedge"
29 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has broken the upper side of the last “Wadge” pattern, which led to the current rise. Despite of a resistance at 1.1397, the market is likely going to move on towards a resistance at 1.1412 – 1.1431. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see a downward correction.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last downtrend line has been broken. We’ve got a resistance at 1.1398, but it likely brings just a local correction. So, bulls are probably going to reach a resistance at 1.1412 – 1.1431. If a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.1387 – 1.1367 as the next bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8797

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears were hit like a ton of bricks
29 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has been rising dramatically since a “Double Bottom” was formed at the last low. Moreover, the downtrend line was broken yesterday, so bears were hit like a ton of bricks. The market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4692. If we see any kind of bearish pattern on this level, it’ll be a sign for a downward correction.

There’s a “Thorn” at the last low, which led to the current upward movement. We haven’t got any reversal pattern so far that is why we’ll likely can see the pair higher in the short term. The main target is a resistance at 1.4692, which can bring a local correction into the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8798

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD broke daily down channel
29 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD broke daily down channel
-Next buytarget - 1.1460

EUR/USD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier, when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.1220, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of March. The active impulse wave (iii) belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from the start of December.

Having recently broke the daily down channel (which has enclosed the previous ABC correction (ii)) - EUR/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1460 (which stopped pervious impulse wave (i)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8799[/UR:]

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY broke support levels 109.00 and 107.70
29 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY broke support levels 109.00 and 107.70
-Next sell target - 106.00

USD/JPY recently broke through the support level 109.00, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November) – which today broke through the next strong support level 107.70 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) at the start of April, as can be seen below).

USD/JPY is expected to fall further in the accelerated impulse waves 5 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 106.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broke price level 107.70.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8800

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Star" discriminate in favour of bears
29 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

We’ve got the fourth “Three Methods” pattern in a row, which led to the new high yesterday. The price reached the upper resistance and formed a “Harami” on this level, which points to a possible beginning of a downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold”, so the market was rising until yesterday, when the price met with a resistance.

There’re a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” at the last high. Also, the price formed a pullback from the two upper resistance levels. So, it’s likely to see a bearish correction towards the 34 & 55 Moving Average lines.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8801

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: bears broken all "Windows"
29 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price has broken two “Window” in a row, but bears were stopped by the lower “Window”. So, we’ve got a “High Wave” pattern, but it hasn’t confirmed yet. The market is likely going to a local bullish correction and start to falling down afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, we haven’t got any reversal pattern, so there’s an open door for an achievement of the nearest support. At the same time, if the price finds a lodgement under the current “Window”, it can act as a resistance subsequently.

We've got a “Harami” at the local high, which has been confirmed. There’re two “Three Methods” patterns in a row, so the market is likely going to continue the current decline.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8802

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: Fed on hold; wait for NFP
29 April 2016
Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the April 27 meeting. The Fed’s statement didn’t change significantly and leaves the prospects of the June 15 rate hike pretty uncertain. Of course, the economic releases will matter, but what should we expect from the US central bank? In my opinion, interest rates will likely remain on hold at least until December. The regulator will likely stand pat as additional volatility on the global markets is unwished ahead of the US November election.

Hesitant Fed is limiting the upside of the US dollar these days. What’s more, the Bank of Japan also hit the greenback by leaving policy unchanged last week and kicking USD/JPY below 108 yen. As a result, we’ve seen the USD Index falling below 94 points by the end of the week – this is the lowest level since August 2015. Support for the index is seen at 93.15 (May 2015 low). Some pullback could happen here, but the medium US Dollar trend remains bearish for now.

On the new week we’ll be watching the April PMI indices in the United States. Strong figure could render some temporarily support to the greenback, but are unlikely to change the whole picture. On Friday, May 6, markets will focus on the April labor market report. The US economy added 215 new jobs in May.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8804

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: more growth ahead?
29 April 2016
Kira Iukhtenko

British pound pushed higher on the new week, breaking above the neckline of an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation. The pair reached the next strong resistance at 1.4670 by Friday (this is the February 2016 high). A short-term bearish correction is likely from here, but in the medium term the pair is expected to extend the upside towards the 1.5000 mark. We maintain a buy-on-rallies strategy.

The fundamental picture creates space for more rallies in GBP/USD. The Fed remains dovish and, as a result, the US Dollar growth is limited. Brexit fears are not influencing the market these days as politicians all over the world are trying to persuade the British people to stay in the EU. Be careful, though: pressure on the pound is expected to return at the end of May. The Brexit referendum will take place on June 23.

On the new week UK is scheduled to release a bag of April Purchasing Managers' Indices. You should watch the Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, Construction PMI on Wednesday and Services PMI on Thursday. Note that banks in Great Britain will be closed for a holiday on Monday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8805

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Wedge" has worked fine
2 May 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has been rising since the “Wedge’s” upper side was broken. The price faced a resistance at 1.1464, so there’s a chance to see a local downward correction. Anyway, bulls are still have enough power to deliver new highs, so the rally is likely going to be continued towards a resistance at 1.1494 – 1.1533.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price was rising dramatically during last week. We’ve got a local “V-Top” pattern, which brought a local correction into the market. It’s likely that the pair is going to get a support at 1.1437 – 1.1431. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to see more bullish pressure.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8819

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bulls has stopped by the "Double Top"
2 May 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has been moving in a range of a flat since the downtrend line was broken. It's likely to see a local correction during the day. If the price gets a support at 1.4576 – 1.4513, there'll be a chance for bulls to resume their rally.

We’ve got a flat in progress, so the price is likely going to reach a support between the 55 Moving Average and the level at 1.4538 If we see a pullback from this area, buyers will probably feel free to start a new stage of the current upward trend.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8820