Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Trading using economic releases

You can snatch a large sum of money trading news.

The economic calendar is the key tool that helps traders not to miss important events.
The key principle – the future value of the currency is defined based on whether the actual data hits, misses or exceeds consensus forecast. If the actual data doesn’t match the forecast, the currency depreciates. A number that is close to our forecast and if the report exceeds the market’s expectations the currency appreciates.

Tips:

Focus on the most important news that could produce the greatest effect on the market;
Wait for the publication of the chosen release, and then dive into trade according to the plan;
The market’s reaction lasts from 30 min up to 2 hours;
If your fundamental and Technical analysis, fail to realize, and the market’s reaction to the news doesn’t match your expectation; you should follow the market trend (probably you missed some important details in your analysis.
Don’t rush into trade; wait for really strong signals and their confirmation.
Trade Forex with FBS and follow our Economic Calendar here
https://goo.gl/jPH34f

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:02 23.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3870; resistance – 1.3970.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.3930; SL — 1.3950; TP1 — 1.3870; TP2 — 1.3810.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are corrected to Kijun’s resistance and may continue the downtrend.

More:
https://goo.gl/nRiHD8

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
06:03 23.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7770; resistance – 0.7840

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7820; SL — 0.7840; TP1 — 0.7770; TP2 — 0.7730.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the falling lines; the market had corrected to Tenkan-sen and ready to continue the main trend.

More:
https://goo.gl/7GNCM3

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
08:31 23.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 1.2205

SL 1.226

TP1 1.2095 TP2 1.1965

On the daily chart EUR/USD, bulls are trying to return the pair within the upward channel. If they succeed, the pair will be able to continue rising as well as 161.8% and 224% targets of AB=CD patterns will be implemented. Vice versa, when fail, bears will be able to count on the activation of the “Broadening wedge” and “Double top” patterns. In this scenario, the possibility of the continuing correction in the direction of 1.2095 and 1.1965 is high.

On H1 of EUR/USD, bears are going to break supports at 1.2235 and 1.2205.

More:
https://goo.gl/WudkZn

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP Daily Analytics
08:41 23.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 0.8805

SL 0.886

TP1 0.874 TP2 0.8695 TP3 0.845

On the daily chart EUR/GBP, we see the continuation of the long-term consolidation in a range of 0.8695-0.9015 within the upward trend. The break of its bottom line will increase risks of 200% target’s implementation of the AB=CD pattern. To succeed, bulls have to hit the resistance at 0.8925.

On H1 of EUR/GBP, successful tests of the upward channel’s bottom line and support at 0.8805 may lead to the continuation of the sharp decline in the direction of 88.6% and 200% targets of “Shark” and AB=CD patterns.

More:
https://goo.gl/9kdr3Z

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
13:57 23.02.2018

The price is consolidating near the 55 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.2384. If a pullback from this level arrives little later on, there'll be a moment for another decline.

All the Moving Averages have been broken, but there's a bullish "Thorn" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for a downward price movement.

More:
https://goo.gl/TFKp2Q

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily Analytics
13:59 23.02.2018

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4066. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, there'll be a moment for a decline towards the next support at 1.3915 - 1.3835.

The last "Pennant" pattern pushed the price higher. So, it's likely that the pair is going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4048 in the coming hours.

More:
https://goo.gl/KRVhrf

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: LOWER "WINDOW" ACTED AS SUPPORT
14:02 23.02.2018

There's a bullish "Hammer", which has been confirmed enough. In this case, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for a decline.

The lower "Window" has acted as support, so there's a "Hammer". However, confirmation of this pattern has been canceled by the last bearish "Harami". So, the market is likely going to test the "Window" once again.

More:
https://goo.gl/2qiL3X

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY
14:05 23.02.2018

We've got a bullish "Hammer", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest support once again. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

All the Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there's a confirmed bullish "Harami", so we could have a local decline. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://goo.gl/7qYf4U

 

[riki143]

HAS OIL STABILIZED?
15:41 23.02.2018
This week was quite unstable for the oil. A rise was followed by a fall and vice versa during the whole week. So let's look at the events that created such oil volatility.

After the continuation of the last week rise, the oil was falling on Tuesday and Wednesday. The reasons were hidden in the recovering US dollar and anticipated growth of the US production. This week the greenback could find support. Fed’s meeting minutes that strengthened the confidence of soon rate hikes supported the dollar even more. So the oil prices were traded near such lows as WTI - $61 a barrel, Brent - $65 a barrel.

However, the anticipated rise of the US crude oil inventories was not proved. The data was unexpectedly low that led to the surge of the oil. So the prices appeared close to the highest in two weeks.

The US crude stockpiles fell to 1.62 million barrels last week. It was the biggest fall in five weeks. The average forecast was at 2.2 million.

But the data was mixed. The US exports reached 2 million barrels a day, the highest figure since October 2017. Net imports fell below 5 million barrels a day. It put pressure on the oil. During Friday the oil prices were volatile, but they could stabilize and go further.

Stabilization of the oil is based on the significant support from the OPEC and Russia with their output cuts. According to tanker-tracker Oil Movements’ forecast, the exports are anticipated to decline by 300,000 barrels a day to March 10. Moreover, experts are talking about the prolongation of the cuts. According to the International Energy Agency the supply from North America, Brazil and Mexico can cover global demand growth for the next two years. So it will force OPEC and Russia to expand the cuts for longer than it is planned now (until the end of 2018).

Making a conclusion, we can say that at the moment the prices have stabilized: WTI is traded near $63, Brent is near $66.40. OPEC and Russia still support the oil prices with its output cuts policy. However, the strength of the greenback is affecting the oil a lot. It is quite difficult to forecast prices because firstly, the greenback is not stable yet. This week stabilization of the dollar may be ruined next week. Secondly, the production of non-OPEC countries is growing, thus it can lead to the oversupply again. However, Saudi oil minister gave a positive forecast. He said that the oil market is rebalancing, and we can expect the continuation of inventories’ decline this year. So let’s see.

More:
https://goo.gl/nL9Vue

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: MOVING AVERAGES ACTING AS RESISTANCE
14:05 23.02.2018

We've got a bullish "Hammer", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest support once again. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

All the Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there's a confirmed bullish "Harami", so we could have a local decline. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://goo.gl/gL3iMi

 

[riki143]

FOREX Basics: Fibonacci tools

Forex traders continuously use these useful indicators. You’d better know them very well since many analysts use these tools to identify support and resistance levels or to predict the potential scope of price movement.

Read in our guidebook the different Fibonacci tools and learn how to use them in your trading https://goo.gl/HeiJmb

 

[riki143]

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[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
05:05 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2380.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2300/10; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2380; TP2 — 1.2450
Sell — 1.2270; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2220; TP2 — 1.2180
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the market is on the strong support of 1.2300.

More:
https://goo.gl/bRbBFC

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD Daily analytics
05:07 26.02.2018
Technical levels: support – 1.3960; resistance – 1.4010, 1.4050.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.4000; SL — 1.3980; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.
Sell — 1.3930; SL — 1.3950; TP1 — 1.3870; TP2 — 1.3810.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel of the lines; the prices are returned to the Cloud.

More:
https://goo.gl/BAKSkh

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD Daily Analytics
08:11 26.02.2018
Recommendations:

SELL 0.728 SL 0.7335 TP1 0.7205 TP2 0.717

BUY 0.743 SL 0.7375 TP1 0.753 TP2 0.763

On the daily chart NZD/USD, bulls should break the resistance at 0.743 to continue the rally. On the contrary, if quotations are out the uptrend channel, it will strengthen risks of a pullback.

On H1, the pair reached targets of the “Broadening wedge” pattern. The break of the resistance at 0.7365 will activate the “Shark” pattern. This level is in the “dead zone”. A rebound from the bottom line of the uptrend channel will support a sale of Kiwi.

More:
https://goo.gl/YkVZR8

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD Daily Analytics
08:15 26.02.2018
Recommendations:

BUY 0.79

SL 0.7845

TP1 0.799 TP2 0.8055

On the daily chart AUD/USD, the exit of quotations from the downtrend channel and the break of resistance at 0.7892-0.7902 will increase risks of the activation of Gartley pattern and the continuation of the pair’s rise in the direction of its 78.6% target. Vice versa, a rebound will let bears continue correction.

On H1 of AUD/USD, the pair reached targets of the "Widening wedge" and the "Shark" patterns. Currently, the “Crab” pattern is being activated. To continue the rally bulls should break the resistance at 0.79, 0.7945 and 0.799.

More:
https://goo.gl/tVBzFo

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:08 26.02.2018

There's a bullish "Hammer", so the price is rising. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest resistance area happens, there'll be a moment for another decline.

The 144 Moving Average is acting as resistance, but there's still no any reversal pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to test the closest support by the last "Three Methods" pattern, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://goo.gl/ZmE7nq

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:11 26.02.2018

The 21 & 34 Moving Averages have acted as resistance, but there's still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 MA once again. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.

There's a bullish "Hammer", which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average. If this line acts as resistance, bears will probably try to break the last low.

More:
https://goo.gl/UqajUL