Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND KEEP STAYING ON CLOUD
04:52 05.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance – 1.2960.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2930; SL — 1.2910; TP1 — 1.2980; TP2 — 1.3050.

2. Sell — 1.2900; SL — 1.2920; TP1 — 1.2810; TP2 — 1.2710.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen in a Cloud; the prices are on the support of Cloud, but the bulls are weak.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_pound_keep_staying_on_cloud_883

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR MADE NEW HIGHS
04:53 05.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 112.00, 111.30; resistance – 112.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 111.30; SL — 111.10; TP1 — 112.00; TP2 — 112.80.

2. Sell — 112.40; SL — 112.60; TP1 — 111.60; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are breakout the support of Tenkan and Kijun.

Mre:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_dollar_made_new_highs_884

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BROKEN "TRIANGLE"
07:34 05.05.2017

Bulls have broken the last "Triangle", but price faced resistance at 1.0991, so there's a consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next resistance nears the current downtrend. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.0951.

The price has been consolidating since a pullback from resistance at 1.0991 formed. Also, we've got a "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to continue moving up during the day. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, bears will probably try to deliver a local downward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_broken_"triangle"_886

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: SUPPORT BY 34 MOVING AVERAGE
07:44 05.05.2017

There's a "Double Top", but bears couldn't move on because of support by the 34 Moving Average. At the same time, we've got a "V-Bottom", so the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2945 - 1.2964. If bulls stop here, we'll have an opportunity to see a correction.

Price is moving up and down along support at 1.2913. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach resistance at 1.2935 - 1.2952, which could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of support at 1.2900 - 1.2880.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_support_by_34_moving_average__887

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: UPPER "WINDOW" STILL ON THE TABLE
12:24 05.05.2017

There's a pullback from the lower "Window", but we've got a "Tower" at the last high. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards the next "Window".

The last "Shooting Star" has been confirmed, so bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement. In this case, we could have a new local high in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_upper_"window"_still_on_the_table_890

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "SHOOTING STAR" LED TO CORRECTION
12:33 05.05.2017

There's a downward correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. However, bulls are likely going to test the nearest "Window", which could be a departure point for a decline towards the 34 Moving Average.

The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so we've got a "Hammer" pattern on this line. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance by the "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, we could have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_"shooting_star"_led_to_correction_891

 

[riki143]

AUD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.7270
12:51 05.05.2017

AUD/CHF reached sell target 0.7270
Next buy target - 0.7320
AUD/CHF today reversed up from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 0.7270 (previous sell target, which has been steadily reversing the price from last August - as can be seen from the daily AUD/CHF chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii).

Given the deeply oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/CHF is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7390.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/chf_reached_sell_target_0.7270_892

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD RISING INSIDE SHARP C-WAVE
12:53 05.05.2017

GBP/AUD rising inside sharp C-wave
Next buy target - 1.7780
GBP/AUD continues to rise inside the sharp minor impulse wave (iii) - which previously broke above the key resistance level 1.7210 (which stopped earlier wave A and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 1.7210 accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii) and iii – both of which below to the sharp C-wave from the middle of March.

GBP/AUD is expected to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.7780 (top of the previous minor B-wave from last September).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/aud_rising_inside_sharp_c_wave_893

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE 2 ON THE WAY
14:02 05.05.2017

Price has been rising since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happens. Previously a leading diagonal has been formed in wave 1. The main target for wave 2 is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another bearish impulse wave.

As we can see on the four-hours chart, there's a developing double zigzag in wave 2. Wave (c) of [y] is likely going to be continued, so we should keep an eye on 7/8 MM Level as the nearest bullish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_wave_2_on_the_way_894

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 8-12
15:54 05.05.2017

EUR/USD rose to 6-month highs ahead of the final round of the French presidential election, which will take place on Sunday, May 7. The market expects that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win the run-off against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and become France's next president. Unlike Le Pen, Macron wants France to stay in the euro area. That’s why the market has been pricing in his victory by buying EUR/USD.

Although the euro has already strengthened on these optimistic expectations, Macron’s victory will likely keep it supported or even let it continue gaining, as in this case political risks in the euro area will significantly decline and traders will refocus on the region’s rather good fundamentals. Euro area’s retail sales rose by 0.3% in March. GDP growth in Q1 turned out to be steady at 0.5%).

After the elections, there will be only the data of minor importance in the European economic calendar. Among these releases, focus on the European Union’s economic forecasts on Thursday and German preliminary GDP on Friday.

EUR/USD has managed to stay above 1.0950 after the US NFP release. There was already a good daily close above the former 2017 resistance line. A weekly close above this level will open the way up to 1.1000, 1.1088 and 1.1100. Support is at 1.0930, 1.0890 and 1.0830.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_outlook_for_may_8_12_898

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 8-12
15:50 05.05.2017

USD/JPY has managed to strengthen to 112.50 during the past week. The pair traded in the situation of low liquidity as Japanese banks were on holidays from Wednesday to Friday. The US dollar gained as the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s June rate hike increased.

On Friday, there was some positive news for the yen. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sounded rather optimistic. He voiced confidence that the country’s inflation rate will accelerate toward his 2% target as robust economic growth pushes up wages and helps heighten inflation expectations.

Still, as far as we can judge, despite the fact that Japan’s economy showed some signs of life, inflation remains extremely low. The BOJ will surely have to continue its extremely loose monetary policy. This will limit the yen’s strength and provide support to USD/JPY. At the same time, a sharp decline in commodity prices and concerns about global growth outlook increase demand for the yen as a safe haven.

In the coming days, there will be some Japanese releases of minor importance like average cash earnings, Bank of Japan’s Summary of opinions, current account, and Economy watchers’ sentiment. Bets for the Fed’s rate hike should be the main driver of USD/JPY.

Technically the pair has met significant resistance at 113.00 (resistance line from January highs and 100-day MA). In addition, there’s 100-week MA at 113.35. If the Fed members sound hawkish late on Friday and we see a strong weekly close, the bulls will get a chance to continue their way up towards 115.00. Otherwise, we’ll be looking for a correction down to 111.70 (50-day MA), 110.45 (200-week MA) and 110.00.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_outlook_for_may_8_12_897

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 8-12
15:55 05.05.2017

GBP/USD was fluctuating around 1.2895 during the past week helped by strong UK economic fundamentals and the US dollar weakness.

Economic data from the United Kingdom came out positive: manufacturing, construction, and services PMIs exceeded expectations and showed that British economy is expanding. The early results from the UK local elections show the ruling Conservative Party strengthening its hold on the country. The political background is positive for GBP in the short term.

In the coming days, don’t miss British manufacturing production on Tuesday. In addition, traders await Super Thursday – the day when the Bank of England delivers not only its policy decision but also the Inflation Report, which contains updated growth and inflation forecasts. Officials are expected to keep their benchmark interest rate steady at 25 basis points, but traders will be eager to find out whether the central bank’s view on British economic outlook has improved. If it did, the pound will get new bullish drivers. If it doesn’t, the sterling will decline.

Technically the outlook for GBP/USD is positive as long as it’s trading above 1.2850. Upside targets lie at 1.3000. Above this level, the rally may extend to 1.3165 (38.2% Fibo of the post-Brexit decline). Below 1.2850 support is at 1.2755 and 1.2710.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_outlook_for_may_8_12_899

 

[riki143]

US DOLLAR: OURLOOK FOR MAY 8-12
15:57 05.05.2017

During the past week, the US dollar index (DXY) has been fluctuating around the 98.90 level.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at May meeting and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth, bolstering market expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates in June. According to the futures market, the odds of a rate hike next month rose to 74%.

American nonfarm payrolls added 211K in April, the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% and average earnings gained by 0.3%. Despite these good figures, USD bulls stayed on the cautious side. Some weakness of the greenback may be related to the fact that the readings for March were revised to the downside.

Donald Trump finally managed to pull the Health Care bill through the House of Representatives, but it’s still not clear whether he’ll manage to succeed in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slimmer majority. The success of this law will push the USD up as traders will become more optimistic about the future tax reform, which also needs the green light from the Congress. For now, the situation with tax reform remains uncertain depriving the USD of the important bullish driver.

In the coming days, the most important releases in American economic calendar will be on Thursday (PPI, unemployment claims) and Friday (CPI, retail sales, preliminary consumer sentiment). Comments from the Federal Reserve members late on Friday will shape the market’s expectations about the Fed’s actions in June and will determine the sentiment about the American currency.

DXY stayed below the former support line from 2016 lows and below 200-day MA located just above 99.00. The greenback remains vulnerable for a decline to 97.55 (100-week MA, July 2016 highs). The 50-week MA at 98.45 is acting as support. Return above 99.30 is needed for the bulls to regain power. The next stops will likely be 100.00 and 100.45.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/us_dollar:_ourlook_for_may_8_12_900

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO MADE NEW LOCAL HIGHS
05:15 08.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0960; resistance – 1.1000, 1.1070.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0960; SL — 1.0940; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 – 1.1070.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_euro_made_new_local_highs_910

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE ENTERED TO CHANNEL TENKAN-KIJUN
05:17 08.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7400; resistance – 0.7450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7400; SL — 0.7380; TP1 — 0.7450.

2. Sell — 0.7450; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7380; TP2 — 0.7340.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the channel Tenkan-Kijun and supported by Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/usd:_aussie_entered_to_channel_tenkan_kijun_911

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS CAN GO HIGHER
08:04 08.05.2017

The price is still consolidating under the main downtrend. However, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1025 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.0951 - 1.0933.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The main intraday target is resistance at 1.1025, which could be a departure point for a bearish price movement in the direction of a support area between the levels at 1.0969 - 1.0951.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_bulls_can_go_higher_913

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: RESISTANCE WAITING FOR BULLS
08:07 08.05.2017

There's a possible "V-Bottom" pattern, so the market is likely going to rise towards resistance at 1.3023. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a downward correction later on, so we should keep an eye on support at 1.2945 as an intraday target.

The pair is consolidating between resistance at 1.2995 and support at 1.2945. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2995 - 1.3023. If a pullback from this area happens, we could have a decline in the direction of support at 1.2952 - 1.2935.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_resistance_waiting_for_bulls_914

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "WINDOW" STILL ON THE TABLE
11:43 08.05.2017

The main trend is still bullish, cause we've got a pullback from the lower "Window". However, there's a bearish "Engulfing", which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to get support on the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement towards the upper "Window".

There's a bearish "Hanging Man", so the price is likely going to test the nearest support during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_"window"_still_on_the_table_917

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "HAMMER" ON MOVING AVERAGE
11:52 08.05.2017

There's a correction, which is taking place around the "Window". Also, there's a bullish "Hammer", which has been confirmed. If the 21 Moving Average acts as a support, bulls are likely going to break the last high.

The 34 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we've got a "Hammer" on this line. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" once again. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will have a chance to achieve the closest support area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_"hammer"_on_moving_average_918

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
16:14 08.05.2017

USD/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0100
USD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.9880 (which stopped the previous sharp downward waves (A) and (C) - as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. If the pair closes today near the current levels it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.

Given the strength of the support level 0.9880 - USD/CHF is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0100 (top of the previous intermediate impulse wave (1)).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/chf_reversed_from_support_zone_919