Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO IS TRADING IN CONSOLIDATION RANGE
06:41 02.05.2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.085-1.095. A break of its lower border can lead to the realization of the "Three Movements" pattern and correction towards 1.077. In contrast, a successful test of the upper border of the range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the 1.091-1.102 convergence zone. There is an intersection of long-term downward and medium-term upward trading channels.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the bulls need to be cautious with trading breakouts. There is a 200% target of the AB = CD pattern near 1.1020.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_euro_is_trading_in_consolidation_range_814

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BULLS ARE PREPARING FOR BREAKOUT
06:42 02.05.2017

On the USD/CHF chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 0.9915-0.9975. A break of its upper or lower borders does not guarantee a restoration of the trend. The resistance is located near parity level. For the continuation of the rally and the implementation of the targets of the "Wolf Waves" and the "Shark" patterns, the bulls need to test the following resistance.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge is in the process of formation. A necessary condition for its implementation and restoration of the uptrend is a breakout of resistance at the parity level.

Recommendation: BUY 1,0000 SL 0,9945 TP 1,02.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/chf:_bulls_are_preparing_for_breakout_815

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST LAST HIGH
06:55 02.05.2017

The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Also, there’s a possible “Triple Top”. However, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0933 – 1.0951 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0819 – 1.0729.

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0933 – 1.0951. Meanwhile, this area could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the 89 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_bulls_going_to_test_last_high_816

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: GAP GOING TO ACT AS RESISTANCE
06:59 02.05.2017

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2945 – 1.2964. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to reach the next support at 1.2865 – 1.2816.

The 55 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.2935 – 1.2952. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2865 – 1.2844.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_gap_going_to_act_as_resistance_817

 

[riki143]

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
09:05 02.05.2017

Oil prices dropped to $50.40 on last Thursday following the restart of two key Libyan oilfields which can produce nearly 400K barrels per day. Libya is exempted from the OPEC output cut agreement. So, increased crude output of this country would offset efforts by OPEC members and other larger crude producers to cap a global oil glut.
Brent oil futures extended their losses on Friday after Baker Hughes showed a rise in US oil rigs for a 15th week in a row. Rising US oil production is one of the biggest headwinds for oil prices in the medium term.
In 2016, US shale companies reached the break-even point at prices of $30-40 per barrel, so, no wonder we see how the production of shale oil is growing. The breakeven cost per barrel, on average, to produce Bakken shale at the wellhead has fallen to $29.44 in 2016 from $59.03 in 2014, according to Rystad Energy consultancy. The only thing that might stem a nagging growth of the US oil industry is the shortage of natural resources. There is a great problem of exploration of new deposits. Donald Trump had recently signed an order allowing expansion of drilling activities to remote places such as the Arctic. But this will unlikely encourage shale oil producers to launch a range of new offshore projects, as they are very costly. The shortage of US oil resource might be supportive of oil prices in the longer term. At the present moment, the data indicating a revival in the US oil industry will continue exhibiting a certain degree of pressure on the oil prices.
In May, investors will closely monitor the process of negotiation on the extension of the OPEC-led output cut agreement. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in his recent comments said that efforts to get a consensus on the deal extension before the Vienna conference in May are under way. He also suggested that the supply cuts were rather effective in keeping oil prices above $50 and curbing global crude inventories. Therefore, additional deeper cuts are needed to reignite oil price rally through the mid $50-barrel level.
In the next few days, traders will be waiting for the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on the number of US crude and refined product stocks and for the official figures from the Energy Information Administration coming on Wednesday. A substantial drop in the US stockpiles will be a tailwind for oil prices.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview__819

 

[riki143]

本周多个重磅事件来袭 市场将大幅波动
07:38 02.05.2017

美联储将于本周二至周三再度召开政策例会，虽然考虑到外部各方面因素的影响，美联储在此次会议上“背靠背”加息的几率基本为零，但这并非意味着会议决议本身就毫无看点。至少，美联储对经济现况的评估，以及对未来政策预期的透露，仍会是各界瞩目的焦点。基于美联储此前所给出的年内“至少再加息两次”的预期，市场分析人士继续认为此后的6月和9月两次会议将会是其关键政策行动节点。不过，当前各界的共识是，至少在5月初的这次会议上，美联储将会继续按兵不动，因为在本周会议之后，并没有美联储主席耶伦的政策讲话。不过，即使美联储在此次会议上刻意回避对未来政策路线的前瞻，分析人士也依旧认为其在此后的6月会议上会有50%以上的可能性会实现半年内第三度加息。

5月5日本周五晚上美国劳工部将公布4月非农就业数据，预计4月就业人数增加约19万人。不过，上个月的预估也大致位于20万左右，数据最终令人大失所望，仅增加了9.8万。从非农季节性图显示，过去十年里，4月非农数据通常好于3月份，并且较前值有明显的上升。即便考虑到天气因素，3月就业报告也表现异常疲弱。我们基于PMI的模型显示，市场将迎来另一份疲弱就业报告，就业人数将增加10万左右。不过，鉴于3月报告非常疲弱，预计4月数据将反映出这些数据将进行一些修正。因此，预计就业人数将增加17万，其中制造业增加1.5万，服务业增加14万。

本周热点相对较多，美联储利率决议，法国总统大选、非农、OPEC是否延长减产期限，都是市场有可能炒作的热点，投资者需要留意市场情绪的变化。今日重点关注中午发布的澳洲联储公布利率决议。

美元指数

上一个交易日美元指数维持震荡，目前交投于98.95。北京时间5月1日上午，据国会助理透露，美国国会已经通过了1.1万亿美元的临时综合支出计划，以便让美国政府维持运行到9月30日。这缓解了市场对于美国政府关门的紧张情绪，市场避险品种出现回落。在传出美国政府极有可能避免关门的消息后，市场马上体现出了乐观的情绪。本周风险事件主要集中于下半周，包括美联储5月利率决议、美国4月非农就业报告和周末的法国大选最终投票。技术面看，美指上周基本收平，在周线上收出低位十字星，日线上仍是横盘整理状态，本周美指或进一步下行，下方重要支撑位置在50周均线切入点98.40附近，建议逢高做空为主 。

欧元美元

上一个交易日欧元兑美元小幅收高，目前交投于1.0909附近。法国大选第二轮投票将于5月7日进行，但基于当前落差悬殊的民调状况，各界普遍认为“中间派”独立候选人马克宏当选已成定局。乐观人士预测，这位脱胎于法国两大传统主流政党之外的新总统可以闯出自己的一番天空。最新民调虽然显示勒庞在过去一周已经缩窄了与马克宏的民调差距，但离出现翻盘的可能性还相去甚远。在经济低迷的状况下，法国的就业市场也只能用惨不忍睹来形容。而无法兑现实现失业率大幅下降这一承诺的结局，也是该国现任总统奥朗德不得不心灰意冷放弃竞选连任的主因。技术面看，欧元上周在高位收出小幅阴线，但日线上形态整体偏强，后市或进一步上涨，上方重要阻力位置在1.10附近，建议逢低做多欧元。

现货黄金
上一个交易日现货黄金从高位1270大幅下跌至1261，目前交投于1263附近。现货黄金价格下挫，此前美元小涨，因美国国会谈判代表敲定一项支出计划，使联邦政府直到9月30日本财年结束前仍有资金可支用。美国国会一位高级幕僚上周日称，国会谈判代表已就支出达成一项两党协议，以使联邦政府直到9月30日，即本财年结束前仍有资金可支用。当地时间周日晚间，美国国会谈判人员就1.1万亿美元支出法案达成临时协议，以维持政府运行至9月30日。这份协议消除了政府在5月5日之后关门的风险。尽管金价第一季表现强劲，但银行仍对今年金价前景较为谨慎，因升息预期削弱黄金魅力。技术面看，黄金虽然在日内出现下跌，但日线上看，仍然出于横盘整理状态，而周线金价已经连续两周从高位下跌，本周大概率延续下跌走势，建议逢高做空为主。
More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/本周多个重磅事件来袭_市场将大幅波动_818

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH PATTERNS INSIDE STRONG RESISTANCE
11:17 02.05.2017

There’s a strong resistance area, where we’ve got bearish patterns such a “Tweezers”, a “Shooting Star” and a “Doji”. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as a support on the one-hour chart. At the same time, there’re a bearish “Shooting Star” and a “Doji”, but both patterns have a quite weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bears will have a chance to deliver a local decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_bearish_patterns_inside_strong_resistance_821

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST "WINDOW"
11:23 02.05.2017

The price as approaching the upper “Window”, but we still don’t have any reversal pattern. So, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the Moving Averages.

The last candles are bullish, but the price has reached the nearest resistance, so we could have a local correction during the day. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the price even higher afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_bulls_going_to_test_"window"_822

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE (III) NEARLY OVER
11:34 02.05.2017

The pair is still consolidating under 7/8 MM Level. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a new local high in the short term. Anyway, wave (iii) is likely going to end soon, which means we could have wave (iv) later on.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (iii) is taking form of a double zigzag. Also, we’ve got a possible triangle in wave , so bulls are likely going to deliver wave [C] of y of (iii) during the day. At the same time, there’s a chance to have wave a or w afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_wave_(iii)_nearly_over_824

 

[riki143]

BANKS FORECASTS AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING
12:35 02.05.2017

The Federal Open Market Committee will deliver its rate statement on May 3. Most analysts expect the FOMC to stay on. Current Target Rate probabilities for the Fed Meeting: 95.2% for leaving interest rate unchanged at 1%, and only 4.8% for the rate increase. Investors also may get some insight into the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet.

Here are some strategies/forecasts from major banks
Barclays
Barclays Capital Research expects the FOMC to leave its present monetary policy stance unchanged at its May meeting on Wednesday. The bank’s analysts forecast two additional rate hikes this year (in June and September) and balance sheet reduction towards the year-end (most likely in December). The Fed’s officials might acknowledge the recent soft economic data. If they mention probability of the imminent economic slowdown, it will be a signal that action in June might be off the table. USD will be hurt.
Credit Agricole
The bank’s analysts noted that the yen has weakened following the first round of the French Presidential election. They found out an important pattern for the JPY to watch going to the FOMC meeting this week.
"The pattern for more than a year now has been for the JPY to strengthen post FOMC meetings, as they have tended to disappoint the hawkish rhetoric by FOMC members ahead of the meeting."
This time the currency might not follow this pattern as there is less potential for disappointment around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
Societe Generale
According to SocGen strategists, if the US dollar manages to keep at least a modest bid going to the FOMC meeting, there is a risk for USD/CAD to spike higher towards 1.40.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/banks_forecasts_ahead_of_the_fomc_meeting_825

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY CLOUD
05:37 04.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0890; resistance – 1.0960.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0900/10; SL — 1.0880; TP1 — 1.0960; TP2 – 1.1000.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_euro_supported_by_cloud_865

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE MADE NEW LOWS
05:38 04.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7380, 0.7340; resistance – 0.7450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7450; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7380; TP2 — 0.7340.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the new lows for the last four months.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/usd:_aussie_made_new_lows_867

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: POSSIBLE "TRIPLE TOP"
06:44 04.05.2017

The price is still consolidating near the upper side of the current “Wedge”. At the same time, there’s a possible “Triple Top”. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

Bears faced a support at 1.0882, so the price is consolidating. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest support area at 1.0855 – 1.0851 during the day. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0910 – 1.0918.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_possible_"triple_top"_869

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT
06:50 04.05.2017

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Moreover, we’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of a resistance area at 1.2913 – 1.2945.

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed by the last “Pennant”. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. Nevertheless, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.2844 – 1.2816. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2865 – 1.2880.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp/usd:_bears_going_to_test_nearest_support_870

 

[riki143]

ATTENTION: FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
10:09 04.05.2017

The decisive second round of French presidential election will take place on Sunday, May 7. Two candidates will compete for France’s top position. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who aims to fight immigration and leave the euro area. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, wants to strengthen the European monetary union by setting up a separate budget for the 19 countries that use the euro.

Financial markets have already priced in high probability of Macron’s victory. According to the recent opinion polls, young centrist can win 65% of votes in run-off against Le Pen. The main task for Macron in the countdown to the second-round vote is to pull in the left-leaning electorate of Hamon and Mélenchon as well as those who voted for center-right Fillon in the first round.

How to trade?
While preparing for trading on the outcome of the French presidential election, remember that just because a candidate won the first round, it doesn’t mean that he/she will win the presidency. There are concerns that French voters may stay at home. The turnout is the biggest challenge for Macron’s team. Le Pen’s supporters may prove to be more devoted to their candidate and eager to come to the voting stations. Macron’s voters, on the contrary, are pretty sure in an absolute win of their candidate, so there’s a risk that they won’t go to cast their votes this Sunday. As a result, there is a room for uncertainty. Beware of unexpected outcomes!

Whatever be the result of the second round, remember one thing: the EUR and high-risk assets will like Macron’s victory, while Le Pen’s success might seriously hurt the single currency and boost safe-havens.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/attention:_french_presidential_election_871

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION GOING TO MOVE ON
14:22 04.05.2017

The 21 Moving Average has acted as a support, but we still don’t have any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the lower “Window”.

We’ve got a pullback from the 89 Moving Average. However, there’s a bearish “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. In this case, we could have a local downward correction during the day. If a pullback from the Moving Averages happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_consolidation_going_to_move_on_873

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO PUSH PRICE HIGHER
14:29 04.05.2017

The price is still rising, so bulls have broken the nearest “Window”. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, the price is likely going to climb even higher. However, if a pullback from the next resistance happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bearish correction.

The last reversal patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. The main intraday target is the upper “Window”, which could be a departure point for a local correction towards the Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd/jpy:_bulls_going_to_push_price_higher_874

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH CORRECTION JUST AROUND THE CORNER
14:52 04.05.2017

Wave (iii) is going to end soon. If a pullback from the upper side of the current ending diagonal happens, there’ll be time for correction. The main target for wave (iv) is 5/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another bullish wave.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a triangle in wave , so the price is rising in wave [C]. At the same time, wave a or w is likely going to start in the short term. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/usd:_bearish_correction_just_around_the_corner_875

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD BROKE SUPPORT ZONE
16:11 04.05.2017

AUD/USD broke support zone
Next sell target - 0.7320
AUD/USD continues to fall after the earlier strong breakout of the important support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 0.7450 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of December, as can be seen below. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3- which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (3) from the middle of March.

AUD/USD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 0.7320 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud/usd_broke_support_zone_878

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD BROKE PIVOTAL RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.4650
16:12 04.05.2017

EUR/AUD broke pivotal resistance level 1.4650
Next buy target - 1.4900
EUR/AUD continues to rise inside the sharp minor impulse wave 3 - which previously broke the pivotal resistance level 1.4650 (which stopped earlier waves (4) and (i), as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4650 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the sharp intermediate (C)-wave from the end of March.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.4900 (which stopped the previous minor B-wave in last November).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur/aud_broke_pivotal_resistance_level_1.4650_879