Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls are losing their interest
2/9/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears managed to return quotes to the support at 0.7605. A breakout of this support can lead to the correction towards the 0.754 level. Alternatively, a rise of prices above the 0.7665 level can lead to the restoration of the trend and fulfillment of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a consolidation within the uptrend. A successful test of the support at 0.7605 will allow Aussie to return to the 0.7515-0.7605 range. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to raise quotes above the resistance at 0.769.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12401

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Wolf Waves will indicate a further path for the yen
2/9/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation within the mid-term upward trend. The nearest resistance level is located at the 112.5 level. A successful test of this resistance will allow quotes to return to the previous trading range located at 112.5-114. The support can be found near the 111.15 mark (38.2% level of the last upward medium term wave).

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of Wolf waves. A breakout of the diagonal resistance at 112.45 will allow opening long positions in direction of 114.55. There is a 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern.

Recommendation: BUY 112,45 SL 111,90 TP1 113,35 TP2 114,55.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12402

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 9
2/9/2017

Kiwi skidded to 0.7190 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement and Governor wheeler’s press conference. The market has been pricing for 1.5 hikes from the RBNZ over the upcoming 12 months after heightened Q4 inflation figures, but the RBNZ made it clear that it is not planning any hikes until 2019. The bank’s officials noted that the present value of NZD is not sustainable for balanced growth, so, they will try to talk it down in the process.

It seems that NZD weakness was carried over to the Aussie as it dipped to 0.7610 in the course of the session having ended it with a modest gain (moved higher to 0.7625 after downfall). Earlier today, we got a NAB business confidence survey that was a bit weaker than the Q3 update. The tone of the survey was rather positive indicating solid investment intentions and adequate long-term employment expectations. So, AUD reacted with a blip on the technical chart. Later today, traders will be watching the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaking at the A50 Australian Economic Forum.

The US dollar has clawed back a tad against the euro in the early hours of the Asian session. EUR/USD retraced to 1.0680 on the tantalizing prospects of corporate tax reductions, deregulations from Trump’s administration and French election jitters. The latest Institut français d'opinion publique poll shows Macron winning in the second round against le Pen 64:36 because of the two-round system requiring the broad-based support to become the next president. But this doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, as the National Front leader is ahead in polling for the first ballot that is expected on April 23. Today’s focus will be on the US unemployment claims and FOMC member Evans’s speech. Chicago Fed President Evans seems comfortable with multiple hikes this year; so, we might expect some support for the US dollar from his comments.

GBP/USD slid to 1.2595 on the session. The Brexit bill passed by the House of Commons overnight and now it is heading to the unelected Housed of Lords with the final vote to be delivered on March 7. At the time being, Theresa May is meeting her self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50 by the end of March.

USD/CAD retraced to 1.3140 in the course of the Asian session mainly on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures spearheaded on Wednesday after the US crude inventories data indicated an unexpected drop.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12403

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound keep staying in Cloud
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the top border of the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12404

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel again
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines SSA and SSB are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are in channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12405

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls pushing the market higher
2/9/2017

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2548, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2548. Meanwhile, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2486 – 1.2458. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12408

 

[riki143]

Trade signal from NAB
2/9/2017

The NAB’s technical analysts draw our attention to the AUD/USD weekly chart. There is a bullish reversal pattern formed in the beginning of this year. Another bullish signal – a crossover of 50 MA and 100 MA on the weekly timeframe. There is a number of long-term resistance lines on the Aussie’s upside path located at 0.7730 (the ascending trendline) and at 0.7778/0.7835 (last year highs). They represent rather difficult hurdles to overcome to establish a more sustainable bullish trend.

Weekly RSI line overcame two key trend lines last week which is a powerful confirmation of the bank’s bullish signal. A weekly close above aforementioned 0.7730- 0.7750 range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 2016 highs and ultimately towards 0.8150/0.8300 in the long-term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12409

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, February 9th
2/9/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 41 518 ? + 451 586 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0723; 1.0746; 1.0784; 1.0811
Closest support levels 1.0698; 1.0679; 1.0656; 1.0638
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0698, with target points at 1.0679 and 1.0656
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0699 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0746

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 755 ? + 22 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2581; 1.2608; 1.2625; 1.2645
Closest support levels 1.2528; 1.2506; 1.2487; 1.2437
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2581, with target points at 1.2608 and 1.2625
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2528 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2506 and 1.2487

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 311 ? + 107 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3154; 1.3179; 1.3196; 1.3226
Closest support levels 1.3135; 1.3108; 1.3082; 1.3046
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3154, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3196
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3135 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3082

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12410

 

[riki143]

7 imminent risks you should worry about
2/9/2017

The biggest threats to portfolio/financial accounts you should beware of

1. Bonds

Many asset managers see the hazard on the bond side. The bond yields reached historically low in July 2016; then, the yields on government bonds skyrocketed due to the upbeat macroeconomic releases and uptick in inflation rates. Surging yields hurt investors holding the debt and raise financing costs for companies.

2. US Dollar

The resurgence of the US and European economies marks the end of the global economic crisis lasting for almost 10 consecutive years. The danger now is an unexpected rally in bond yields coupled with a significant upsurge in the US dollar exchange rate. It can be very disruptive for markets especially for the emerging ones because investors would rather favor US assets than risk-taking developing markets’ currencies. Strong greenback hurts the country’s exporters and decreases corporate profits.

3. Trump’s policies

Market participants can be grossly disappointed once Trump’s expansionary policies are not realized. Increased spending, tax cuts, and deregulation policies have already well priced in my market participants.

4. China

China could be the biggest threat to global economic and market stability. The economic growth of the country may eventually slow down. Another key risk to the Chinese economy in 2017 and 2018 is the possibility that faster than expected U.S. interest rate increases could intensify Chinese capital outflows posing additional pressure on China's financial system and exposing it to a debt crisis. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year; the number is expected to exceed 300% of GDP in the next 2 years.

5. The Fed

The Fed can be more hawkish than the market expects if the US steps into the inflationary spiral. Heightened inflation rates could prompt the Fed to raise the interest rates more often. This would decelerate the US economic growth rates and dent investor appetite for risk assets.

6. Europe

Upcoming elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands potentially leading to the victory of anti-establishment candidates place a downside pressure on the euro and strengthen the US dollar. Also, there is a chance of early elections in Italy. The Apennine Peninsula also has its populist movements (greeting to Five Star Movement).

7. Australia

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has recently placed financial stability at the forefront of monetary policy. Homeowners, property investors and consumers around Australia started to refer to financial helplines as three warning signs pick up the demand: lenders’ bad debt provisions have increased mortgage arrears are increasing, personal insolvencies are at their highest levels. Australians’ private debt spiked to 187% of their income encouraged by low-interest rates. Australia’s households are probably ones of the most indebted in the world with $1 trillion of mortgages amid a housing boom that spread in various parts of the country. Australia was almost deprived of its AAA rating in December. Now, it should face this debt problem until it is too late.

The realization of at least one of the aforementioned scenarios can spur a chain reaction potentially leading to the new financial crashes or global economic crises.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12411

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
2/9/2017

We’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a bullish “Three Methods”. So, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point to a local upward price movement.

There’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12413

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/9/2017

The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Tower” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline.

The last “Doji” and “Tower” patterns led to the current upward price movement. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12415

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish extension
2/9/2017

We’ve got a possible zigzag in wave 2, so the price is declining in wave . Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction.

There’s a possible extension in wave (iii). Therefore, wave v of (iii) is likely going to be continued. If a pullback from 0/8 MM Level arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (iv).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12416

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
2/9/2017

NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
Next sell target – 0.7120

NZD/USD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous intermediate (B)-wave in November and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Shooting Star.

NZD/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7120 (which reversed the price in the middle of January and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from December).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12417

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
2/9/2017

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
Next buy target - 1.0650

AUD/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the resistance level 1.0550 (which reversed the previous waves B and (ii), as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January.

Having just broken the resistance level 1.0600 - AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0650 (former monthly high from November).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12418

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie is wandering in the channels
2/10/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, Wolf wave are still relevant. The diagonal line of resistance shifted lower due to the formation of a new fractal. A necessary condition for the restoration of "bullish" trend is the successful test of 1.3220 and 1.3305 levels. The nearest support can be found near the 1.3 level.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 1.315 followed by the quotes' exit from the descending trading channel will allow "bulls" to regain their confidence. But first, they will have to keep quotes above the 1.3125 mark (38.2% level of the AB wave).

Recommendation: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP 1,3305.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12421

 

[riki143]

Gold isn't afraid of the correction
2/10/2017

On the daily chart of gold "bulls" failed to attack the resistance located at $1,241. The rollback sent quotes towards the support at $1,220. If it is tested successfully, bears may count on the movement towards the upward trading channel.

On the hourly chart of gold, the trendline in the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern has been broken. The correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel is likely to continue.

Recommendation: BUY $1206 SL $1190 TP $1235.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12422

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 10
2/10/2017

The trade was reignited overnight after the US President flagged an impending tax announcement within two or three weeks. The markets took a new lease of life waiting for more details on Trump’s fiscal plans. In addition, US Appeals Court upheld the suspension of Trump’s immigration ban having said that the new administration failed to offer ground evidence that national security is threatened. The ruling was a positive input for the US markets as it justified the dominance of law over poorly framed whims of the executive branch of power. The euro retraced to 1.0645 against the US dollar still being pressured by political concerns over France’s presidential elections.

USD/JPY spearheaded on Thursday and extended its gains in the course of the Asian session. Today’s focus will be Abe-Trump meeting. Japan’s prime minister will propose talks on trade, security, macroeconomic issues. In addition, Abe will try to convince Trump in the purity of Bank of Japan’s undertakings. USD/JPY rose to 113.70 on the back of the meeting.

The Australian dollar traded higher in the early hours of the Asian session after a rather sanguine RBA’s monetary policy statement. Chinese upbeat trade balance data released earlier this morning nudged Aussie a little higher to 0.7640.

Aussie’s strength was handed over to kiwi. NZD took a baby step in the northern direction against its US counterpart. Yesterday NZD/USD slumped 0.7170 after Reserve bank of New Zealand put the kybosh on the possibility of rate hikes in 2017. Further elucidation of Trump’s fiscal policies will pressure the kiwi’s upward movement.

GBP/USD dipped to 1.2500 on the Asian session on the strengthening of the greenback. Today’s focus will be on the UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance data and the US University Michigan consumer confidence index.

USD/CAD was trading choppily in the course of the past session. For the present moment, the pair is hovering around the 1.3140 showing readiness to shoot in either direction. Traders should keep an eye on the Canadian labor data coming at 3:30 pm MT time. Brent futures extended its gains having risen to $55.75 from yesterday’s low at $55.20. The oil prices were bolstered by evidence that the gasoline demand could strengthen in the nearest future. Keeping the focus on the oil there are two pieces of data investors should be aware of – monthly oil report of the International Energy Agency and the Baker Hughes rig count.


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12423

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support
2/10/2017

The price is still consolidating near the broken uptrend. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0619 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697.

We’ve got a “Double Top”, so the price reached a support at 1.0655. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.0640 – 1.0619. However, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12424

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro testing SSB again
2/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0660; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770.

Reason: Ichimoku Cloud changed the character; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are still in correction and on support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12425

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie still on the Cloud
2/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12426