Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/7/2017

We’ve got a “Tower” pattern, so the price came back to the upper “Window”. In this case, the bullish correction is likely going to be continued. If we see any bearish pattern on the 21 Moving Average afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have the market even lower.

There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, so the price is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on the upper “Window” as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12374

 

[riki143]

Paul Tudor Jones’ chamber of secrets
2/7/2017

Paul Tudor Jones II is noted as one of the most successful traders in the history of the stock market. Paul is widely known due to the film entitled Trader focusing on his activity during 1987 financial crash. The video surfaced in the end of 1980s. Paul undertook numerous attempts to remove it from circulation supposedly because it reveals his trading secrets.

We would question this statement; we think that the actor worried in vain. It seems that his trading secrets will be wrapped up in an enigma forever. Having gone through numerous Internet pages, we failed to find a formula for the success of 26-year-old chap who managed to predict one of the greatest collapses in the history of financial markets. Many sources indicate that he did it using methods similar to market forecaster Robert Prechter. The latter one is a well-known proponent of Elliott Wave theory stating that stock prices unfold in specific repetitive patterns. We were left unsatisfied with such explanations. By that time, many knew about this theory but failed to predict the occurrence of the 1987 market crash. Mr. Jones did predict it somehow and made a tidy sum from his guess. “People will be gasping,” Mr. Jones says in the video grinning like a Cheshire cat, and then adds in his rich Memphis drawl. “It will be total rock ’n’ roll.” And it happened exactly like he had predicted. The market collapsed having drained the traders’ pockets. And Mr. Jones augmented his capital considerably.

We decided not to wrestle with a question of how he managed to predict the occurrence of the financial crash, and explained his success as follows: Mr. Jones must have a really special gut feeling, you know, the feeling that grows out of a trader’s experiences and practice and helps him to make profitable bets.

After 1987, Mr. Jones continued his success. He managed to earn $4.3 billion staying in the hedge fund industry. The billionaire investor is also known for his philanthropic conducts. He has been involved in numerous environmental and charity projects. Mr. Jones as the legendary epic archer Robin Hood helps poor people of New York, but unlike the medieval hero, he doesn’t rob the rich. He operates through the Robin Hood Foundation. Another great deed of Mr. Jones – the foundation of the Excellence Charter School, the country’s first all-boys charter school located in Brooklyn, one of the most densely populated counties in the United States.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12372

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish extension
2/7/2017

Wave 2 has been ended in a form of a zigzag, so the price is declining. Previously we’ve got a wedge in wave 1. So, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave in the short term.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an extension in wave (iii). Meanwhile, wave iv is likely going to end during the day, so we could have wave v of (iii) soon. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12375

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY reached sell target 120.00
2/7/2015

EUR/JPY reached sell target 120.00
Next sell target – 119.00
EUR/JPY today broke the support zone lying between the support level 120.00 (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward impulse from November. The breakout of this support zone is likely to accelerate the active minor C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from December.

If the pair closes today below 120.00 - EUR/JPY can, then, be expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 119.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the aforementioned upward impulse from November).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12376[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
2/7/2017

GBP/NZD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Next sell targets - 1.6870 and 1.6700
GBP/NZD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance area located between the key resistance level 1.7450 (former strong support from November), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (1) from December.

GBP/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.6870 (low of the previous impulse (1)) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.6700 (which stopped the earlier primary impulse ③ wave).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12377

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound lost its way in broad daylight
2/8/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the implementation of the intermediate target at 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern was followed by a rollback in the direction of the 50% level of the CD wave. The downfall of quotes below the 38.2% level can lead to the realization of 5-0 pattern. In contrast, the rise of quotes above 78.6% and 88.6% level can lead to the restoration of "bullish" trend.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a final stage of the formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A breakout of the support at 1.2478-1.2484 followed by the activation of the 1-2-3 model will allow opening short positions. The 1.263 and 1.2665 levels can be used for the opening of long positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,2478 SL 1,2533 TP 1,2355,

BUY 1,263 TP 1,2575 TP 1,276.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12381

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears launched an attack
2/8/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, bears broke the diagonal support and pushed the quotes beyond the rising trading channel. If the sellers manage to test the 1.064 level (23.6% level of the last mid-term "bearish" wave), there is a risk of the recovery of the downtrend.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there was a breakout followed by the retest of the lower border of the upward trading channel. The bears will need to test the support at 1.0667 for the continuation of the downward movement towards the 113% target.

Recommendation: SELL 1,0667 SL 1,0722 TP1 1,0595 TP2 1,0535.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12382

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 8
2/8/2017

The euro moved below 1.0675 against the US dollar amid the investors’ concerns over looming French elections. Many analysts believe that the EUR is en-route to parity in the upcoming three months with moderate monsieur Francois Fillon still being embroiled in the scandal, monsieur Hamon still making overtures to Melenchon, and Marin Le Pen being confident in her win in the first round.

The yen extended its losses against the greenback. The latter one managed to move to 112.30 on the session. We don’t expect significant moves from the pair today; it seems that the trading will be subdued on the back of Abe-Trump meeting scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD slid to 0.7630 on the Asian session having given back the yesterday’s post-RBA gains.

Today’s economic calendar is rather light with the RBNZ rate and monetary policy statements, and the US crude oil inventories.

NZD/USD moved lower to 0.7290 in the countdown to the Reserve Banks of New Zealand meeting. The bank is expected to leave its official rate cash unchanged at 1.75%. Traders will be looking for the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement struggling to decipher the future rate path. The bank’s officials will unlikely introduce any significant changes to its present monetary policy stance despite the uptick in Q4 inflation data. Therefore, the New Zealand shouldn’t receive a weighty support from today’s statement to recoup its recent losses.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2545 overnight. The rally was triggered by hawkish comments from a BoE senior official Forbes. She said that the Bank of England might soon need a rate hike as inflation could rise faster than it is expected. The pound for the present moment is the only currency that is still holding its ground against the US dollar.

The Canadian dollar has strengthened against its US peer in the course of the Asian session striving to erase its yesterday’s losses. USD/CAD jumped above 1.3210 on the falling oil prices and disappointing data releases from Canada. Brent oil futures pared significant losses as China’s demand for oil has shrunken overshadowing the OPEC members’ efforts to cut output.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12383

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
2/8/2017

The price has broken the lower side of the last “Rising Wedge” and the local uptrend. The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0619. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697.

The pair faced a support at 1.0655, which led to the current consolidation. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0619 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have a bullish movement in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.0670 – 1.0678.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12384

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance
2/8/2017

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached a resistance at 1.2548. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.

There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which pushed the price to a resistance at 1.2548. In this case, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2458 – 1.2432. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance to see the market higher, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12385

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro will test SSB
2/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0650; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in correction and under the support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12386

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie will be supported by Cloud
2/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a correctional irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12387

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD outlook on the back of RBNZ announcement
2/8/2017

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements today at 10:00 pm MT time. The bank will probably hold its official cash rate on hold at 1.75% even though inflation gathers pace faster than the RBNZ expected. The bank officials will most likely be reluctant to raise interest rate any time soon willing to hinder the NZD appreciation and looking for further pieces of evidence of the acceleration of the actual inflation rates. So, at the coming meeting, RBNZ might adopt a wait-and-see approach and remain in its November’s neutral comfort zone for a while. And such accommodative monetary policy stance may result in market's disappointment.

The kiwi spiked to 0.7375 on Tuesday but failed to hold its positions or rise further. As a result, a bearish shooting star has been formed leading to the retracement in short-term. There are several supports on the downside located at 0.7270 (the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe), 0.7245 (100-day MA), that won’t allow kiwi to slide to the bottom. The upcoming RBNZ rate announcement may bring lots of choppiness to the chart which eventually might not result in any gains or losses.IMG]

More:
[UURL=[URL]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388[/URL][/URL]

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, February 8th
2/8/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 35 706 ? + 66 233 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0710; 1.0734; 1.0756; 1.0793
Closest support levels 1.0659; 1.0639; 1.0615; 1.0586
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0659, with target points at 1.0639 and 1.0615
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0710 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0734 and 1.0756


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 475 ? + 657 ?
Closest resistance levels 112.31; 112.50; 112.80; 113.02
Closest support levels 111.86; 111.68; 111.35; 110.85
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.31, with target points at 112.50 and 112.80
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.86 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.68 and 111.35


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 75 ? + 177 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3205; 1.3233; 1.3273; 1.3324
Closest support levels 1.3153; 1.3125; 1.3106; 1.3080
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3153, with the target points at 1.3125 and 1.3106
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3205 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3233 and 1.3273

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12389

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a support
2/8/2017

The price is continue declining, so bears faced a support on the lower “Window”. The market is likely going to try to break this “Window” in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

We’ve got a developing bearish candle in a range of the “Window”. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12391

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a resistance
2/8/2017

There’re a “Tower” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could bring any bullish pattern. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low one more time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12392

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave is on the way
2/8/2017

The price has been declining since wave 2 was ended in a form of a zigzag. Previously a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, bears are likely going to break 7/8 MM Level in the short term.

There’s an extension in wave (iii), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave iv. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (iii) afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12393

 

[riki143]

Review on George Soros's book
2/8/2017

“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is the truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.”
― George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance

This phrase succinctly explains the meaning of the book's title. The primary objective of trading is to unravel the behavioral pattern of other market participants for generation of maximum profit.

George Soros is best remembered as a speculator who tilted against the Bank of England in 1992. Traders thrust a status of a financial guru upon him. Some people will remember him for his philanthropical conducts. This article was written to present George Soros as a man notable for his crackling wit exerted in the book The Alchemy of Finance.

In this writing, the author explains the philosophical underpinning of his approach to financial markets, widely known as the theory of reflexivity. Its main position states as follows: investor’s and trader’s biases can change the fundamentals that assist in determining market prices. According to Mr. Soros, the direction of market prices is determined by market participants, their prevailing expectations. And financial success can be achieved by those who can recognize the dominant patterns in the behavior of market participants. The latter ones cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy; they make presumptions, formulate various hypotheses about how the events will unfold and then submit them to the test engaging in the financial markets’ operations. Prices are mere reflections of the dominant strand of thought in the markets; they foreshadow events, but don’t shape them. If the prevailing view in relation to a certain event is wrong the prices change their direction and adjust to the actual situation.

In his book, George Soros describes his own decision-making process. First, he makes a projection with regard to a certain event and then tries it on practice. All his forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments. Mr. Soros admits that his predictions are not always consistent with the actual course of events; sometimes his perceptions are flawed. His approach is not to make valid predictions, but to be able to sort out the false ones with the help of the market action mechanism. If you want to know more about Soros’s strategy of trading, read the Alchemy of Finance. For many successful traders, this book has become a desk companion, a plentiful source of inspiration and confidence. Even our old friend Paul Tudor Jones II in his foreword to the first edition of “The Alchemy of Finance” says that he constantly refers to Soros’s writing to regain self-reliance when he enters the inevitable losing streak.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12394

 

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00
2/8/2017

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00
Next sell targets – 81.00 and 80.50
NZD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 82.50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – leading to the subsequent breakout of the next support level 82.00 (previous sell target set for this currency pair).

NZD/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 81.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 80.50 (low of the previous correction (ii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12395

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700
2/8/2017

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700
Next sell target - 1.4400
EUR/NZD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the key support level 1.4700 (which reversed the previous impulse waves 1 and (i), as can be seen from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the extended intermediate impulse sequence (3) from last October.

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4400. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the aforementioned price level 1.4700.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12396