Your volatility calendar for January
1/5/2017
January 6, 15:30 MT time
US Nonfarm Payrolls
This report is the strongest Forex market mover. The indicator shows how many jobs were created in the US during the past month. Along with NFP the US Department of Labor will publish unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on these figures while making its monetary policy decisions. As a result, the release has a great impact on the US dollar in all currency pairs.
American central bank raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points in December and forecasted 3 rate hikes in 2017. Whether the Fed follows this scenario largely depends on the NFP strength. The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen claimed that although the state of the US labor market has improved, challenges still remain, so this release will once again draw the market’s attention.
January 11, 11:30 MT time
British Manufacturing Production
Manufacturing production is one of the main barometers of the UK economic health as it reflects producers’ responsiveness to the changes in the business cycle.
To tell the truth, British industrial production remains a cause of concern due to the prolonged uncertainty over the EU-UK trade relationship. Another reason is that the UK industrial sector lacks structural competitiveness. The previous release of the indicator showed a drop in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by the UK manufacturers hinting on the possibility of Britain’s falling into recession after Brexit. The release at 11:30 MT time will surely have an impact on GBP.
January 13, 15:30 MT time
US Retail Sales & Producer Prices
US retail sales & producer prices are the so-called pace indicators for the US economy. US retail sales data reflect the buying activity of the US citizens, while producer price index shows the changes in the prices of finished goods and services supplied to the market for sales. Higher costs tend to eat into real wages and hit consumers’ purchasing power. Heightened rates of consumer inflation may push the Fed to raise interest rates. All in all, higher readings of these indicators are good for the USD bulls.
The release will take place at 15:30 MT time.
Chinese GDP & Industrial Production
China will publish its economic growth data for Q4 and December industrial production at 04:00 MT time.
China is the world’s fastest growing economy, so its economic performance matters to all Forex traders. Note that Chinese economy has been experiencing a slowdown during the past several years, so market participants will be keen on finding out whether this trend continues.
Risk-sensitive currencies will be most affected by the release. If Chinese figures exceed forecast, we expect Australian and New Zealand’s dollars to strengthen. If the release disappoints, it will be a good time for buying the safe havens like Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
January 18, 17:00 MT time
BOC Rate Statement
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. Short-term interest rates represent one of Canadian dollar’s key drivers.
At its December meeting Canadian central bank didn’t change its benchmark rate from 0.50%. The BoC was encouraged by higher oil prices, improving domestic economic data and weaker national currency.
Traders will be looking for hints on the BoC’s future intentions in its monetary policy report, rate statement and the following conference. Currency pairs with CAD will feel the impact of these events.
January 19, 15:30 MT time
ECB Press Conference
The European Central Bank’s policy is behind most trends of the single currency. The ECB extended its bond-buying program until December 2017 at its last meeting. This decision provoked a selloff in the euro.
Traders are awaiting the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi in order to see what’s his take on the European economy and whether the central bank is still confident about the extremely loose monetary policy it has chosen. The press conference is to start at 15:30 MT time.
January 23, 11:00 MT time
German Ifo Business Climate
German Ifo business climate will be released at 11:00 MT time. This indicator provides one of the most reliable projections for the country’s future economic growth. Changes in the business sentiment can produce a hefty market impact. The latest report showed that German economy may be back in the fast lane after its recent slowdown. The euro tends to rise if the released figures exceed analysts’ expectations.
January 25, 02:30 MT time
Australian CPI
Australia releases inflation figures once in a quarter. This release is one of the benchmarks for the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Note that Australian CPI growth picked up in Q2 and Q3 after posting a negative reading in the first 3 months of 2016. If you trade Australian dollar, don’t miss this release!
January 26, 11:30 MT time
British Prelim GDP
British preliminary Q4 GDP will be published at 11:30 MT time.
British GDP is the primary indicator of the country’s economic activity. It is believed to be one of the key data releases that impacts the exchange rate of the pound. A reading which is better than the consensus forecast is bullish for the sterling.
January 27, 15:30 MT time
US Advance GDP
This is the broadest measure of American economic activity. It will be the first information about the US economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. Market participants will scrutinize this macroeconomic gauge, and so it will have a sizeable impact on the US dollar.
January 31, 12:00 MT time
European CPI Flash Estimate
The euro area will release consumer inflation figures for January at 12:00 MT time. Inflation data is important for the euro’s exchange rate as rising prices lead the central bank to raising interest rates. Higher rates, in turn, help to increase demand for the euro making the rate go up. As a result, the release should be a significant driver of EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs containing the European currency.
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