Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 3 going to move on
12/30/2016

The market has been falling down since a triangle in wave (Y) of ended. So, there’s an opportunity to have an extension in wave 3. In this case, if the price finds a lodgement under 3/8 MM Level, bears are likely going to achieve 0/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the four-hours chart, there’s a pullback from 3/8 MM Level. Previously, a bearish impulse in wave has been formed. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver another impulse in wave [iii] in the coming days.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11908

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "High Wave" stopped bears
12/30/2016

The main trend is a still bearish, but we’ve got a bullish “High Wave”, which is hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to have a small flat and another test of the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average.

The last “High Wave” led to the current upward movement. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance one more time. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bears will probably try to deliver a local decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11909

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, January 2nd
1/2/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 28 999 ? + 65 896 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0578; 1.0603; 1.0632; 1.0655
Closest support levels 1.0512; 1.0485; 1.0450; 1.0429
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0512, with target points at 1.0485 and 1.0450
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0578 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0603 and 1.0632

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 168 ? + 114 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7226; 0.7242/45; 0.7274; 0.7311
Closest support levels 0.7191; 0.7178; 0.7157; 0.7126
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long AUD/USD above 0.7226, with target points at 0.7242 and 0.7274
Alternative scenario Moving below 0.7191 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 0.7178 and 0.7157

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 175 ? - 84 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3464; 1.3499; 1.3552; 1.3572
Closest support levels 1.3421; 1.3401; 1.3364; 1.3340
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3421, with the target points at 1.3401 and 1.3364
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3464 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3499 and 1.3552

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11913

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & German PMI Manufacturing (December 2016): It's time to sell?
1/2/2017

Today at 08:55 GMT will be released the final German PMI Manufacturing data for December and it’s expected to remain unchanged on 55.5. In the Eurozone, Spain, France and Italy are expected to release their PMI Manufacturing numbers, alongside with the EZ general data for the same month and analysts are expecting no major changes. However, it will be interesting to see the price action on EUR pairs if German’s data comes in stronger or weaker than expected.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing a recovery above the 200 SMA with a moving average’s crossover in place. The resistance zone of 1.0589 helped to cap further gains in the pair and that’s why we are seeing a bearish move with should help to erase overbought levels in the short-term. If the pair does a breakout above the 1.0547 level, then it can test the December 30th highs, while a downside continuation should extend the corrective bias towards the 200 SMA.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11914

 

[riki143]

Happy New Year to all traders!
1/2/2017

Here is the end of another choppy year that brought a great many of peaks and troughs to our technical charts. There were many joys and sorrows we will be nostalgic for, many turnaround events that will be stamped in our memories. May your gut feeling never go back on you, your setups be always profitable, and your financial accounts get fat next year!
FX BAZOOKA analytical team wishes you a Happy New Year and sends you this virtual greeting card!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11901

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Manufacturing PMI (December): Will the bears strengthen further?
1/3/2017

Today at 09:30 GMT will be published the UK Manufacturing PMI for December, which saw a decline during November to 53.4 and analysts are expecting more dips in the data, but the consensus is calling for a 53.3 number. In the last five months, Manufacturing PMI had been mixed for the United Kingdom, but as markets are waiting for a decline, then a positive number should help to boost the GBP pairs during the week.

Our technical analysis for GBP/USD at H1 chart is showing a bearish picture, as the pair was capped by the 200 SMA and it seems the demand zone of 1.2269 can be challenged ahead of the UK data. If GBP/USD manages to break that area with a negative number, then we can expect a decline towards the 1.2239 level, which should strengthen the bearish bias for the short-term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11917

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
1/3/2017

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next sell target - 1.4300
EUR/AUD continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which started previously, when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4700 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous sharp downward impulse (i) from September.

Having recently broken below the support level 1.4500, EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4300 (which reversed the pair in the middle of December).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11920

 

[riki143]

Happy New Year to all traders!
1/3/2017

Here is the end of another choppy year that brought a great many of peaks and troughs to our technical charts. There were many joys and sorrows we will be nostalgic for, many turnaround events that will be stamped in our memories. May your gut feeling never go back on you, your setups be always profitable, and your financial accounts get fat next year!
FX BAZOOKA analytical team wishes you a Happy New Year and sends you this virtual greeting card!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11901

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from support area
1/3/2017

CAD/JPY reversed from support area
Next buy target - 88.80
CAD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the support level 86.00 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The upward reversal from this support area started the active intermediate corrective wave (2) – which belongs to the primary downward impulse wave ③ from the middle of December.

CAD/JPY is expected to rise toward next buy target at the powerful resistance level 88.80 (which reversed the previous corrective waves (2) and ②, as can be seen from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). There is a high probability the pair will reverse down after reaching the resistance level 88.80.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11921

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead of FOMC minutes (December): No major hints are expected
1/4/2017

During December’s Fed meeting, the central bank decided to hike rates by 25 basis points in a move that was done mainly because the credibility should remain intact in the Fed, despite US election’s outcome. Also, Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that Trump’s victory didn’t influence on the rate increase by the central bank and she added that the economy is strong enough to support a rate hike. Today at 19:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from such meeting.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is calling for more downsides, as the pair plummeted during Tuesday’s session after strong data from the United States and it’s now testing the support zone of 1.0382. If the pair manages to break below that zone, then we can expect further weakness below the 1.0350 handle. However, if EUR/USD does a rebound over that demand zone, a rally towards the 1.0463 level could be followed in coming days.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11922

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local bullish correction is coming
1/4/2017

The main trend is still bearish, so the price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “Triangle”, which lower side has been broken. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 0.9859 – 0.9607 in the coming weeks. If we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0762.

As we can see on the Daily chart, bears faced a support at 1.0344, so we’ve got a pullback from this level. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.0522 – 1.0590 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have another decline afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11925

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to deliver new low after correction
1/4/2017

We’ve got a new historical low, so the pair is consolidating. Meanwhile, there’s a “Flag”, so bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1726. In this case, we could have a new low soon. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction.

The last “Thorn” pattern led to a bullish correction, which is taking place on the Daily chart. Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2556. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.2081 – 1.1726.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11926

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro started a new year with falling
1/4/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0400, 1.0360; resistance – 1.0420, 1.0450, 1.0500.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0450; SL — 1.0470; TP1 — 1.0400; TP2 – 1.0360.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the new lows since March 2003.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11927

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie returned into the Cloud
1/4/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7210, 0.7160; resistance – 0.7245, 0.7275.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7275; SL — 0.7295; TP1 — 0.7210; TP2 — 0.7160.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and forming a new golden cross; the prices are in a correctional movement in the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11928

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, January 4th
1/4/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 7 417 ? + 21 502 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0451; 1.0487; 1.0505; 1.0529
Closest support levels 1.0410; 1.0394(?); 1.0370; 1.0339
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0410, with target points at 1.0394 and 1.0370
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0451 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0487 and 1.0505

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 97 ? + 32 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2290; 1.2310; 1.2337; 1.2372
Closest support levels 1.2251; 1.2232; 1.2194; 1.2164
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2290, with target points at 1.2310 and 1.2337
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2251 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2232 and 1.2194

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 236 ? + 8 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3421; 1.3439; 1.3475; 1.3503
Closest support levels 1.3398; 1.3367; 1.3339; 1.3314
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3421, with the target points at 1.3439 and 1.3475
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3398 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3367 and 1.3339

AUD/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 163 ? + 386 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7268; 0.7307; 0.7333; 0.7353
Closest support levels 0.7201; 0.7168; 0.7135; 0.7104
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7201, with the target points at 0.7168 and 0.7135
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7268 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7307 and 0.7333

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11931

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Shooting Star"

A bearish trend is still on the table, so the middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance. Also, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives.

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed enough. However, bulls are likely gong to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11932

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls ready to move on
1/4/2017

The price has tested the nearest resistance again, but we still don’t have any bearish pattern. Also, the last candles have been closed under the middle of the huge white candle. In this case, bulls are likely going to break the resistance soon.

We’ve got a correction, which is taking place on the Daily chart. So, there’s bearish patterns such a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the closest support. If we see a pullback from this level, the last high is likely going to be broken.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11933

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
1/4/2017

Wave (i) has ended on 1/8 MM Level, so the price is rising in wave (ii). Previously, we’ve got a zigzag in wave [ii]. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens in the short term, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave (iii).

There’re a bearish impulse in wave (i) and a bullish impulse in wave a. So, wave c of (ii) is likely going to test 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11934

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD reversed from support area
1/4/2016

AUD/USD reversed from support area
Next buy target - 0.7320
AUD/USD continues to rise strongly inside the minor impulse wave (i) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3- which started earlier - when the pair reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the major support level 0.7150 (low of the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) from May and the previous sell target set for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

AUD/USD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7320 (previous powerful support level from November). Strong support remains at the aforementioned support level 0.7150.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11935

 

[riki143]

AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2
1/4/2017

AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2
Next buy target - 0.7500
AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor corrective wave 2, which started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 0.7270 (which reversed the price multiple times from July, as can be seen below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse from the middle of June.

AUD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7500 (target price calculated for the termination of the active minor correction 2).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11936