Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro may return into the Cloud
11/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1050, 1.1000; resistance – 1.1060, 1.1090.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1090; SL — 1.1110; TP1 — 1.1050; TP2 – 1.1000.

Reason: golden cross of the rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is rising up; the prices are in positive zone, but the market is overbought.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11144

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: on strong support
11/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7640.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7630; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7740.

2. Sell — 0.7610; SL — 0.7630; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7510.

Reason: narrow weak bullish Ichimoku Cloud; new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11145

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: prices are back into the Cloud
11/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.35, 103.00; resistance – 104.00, 104.30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.35; SL — 103.15; TP1 — 104.00; TP2 — 104.30.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span B; new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11146

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, November 2nd
11/2/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 233 858 ? + 80 666 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1097; 1.1136; 1.1170; 1.1211
Closest support levels 1.1046; 1.1020; 1.0985; 1.0943
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1097, with target points at 1.1136 and 1.1170
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1046 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1020 and 1.0985

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 201 ? + 612 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2276; 1.2300; 1.2320; 1.2346
Closest support levels 1.2258(40?); 1.2212; 1.2188; 1.2158
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2258, with target points at 1.2212 and 1.2188
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2276 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2300 and 1.2320

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 884 ? + 1 607?
Closest resistance levels 103.85; 104.05; 104.23; 104.50
Closest support levels 103.47; 103.21; 102.85; 102.43
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.85, with the target points at 104.05 and 104.23
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.47 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.21 and 102.85

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 591 ? + 549 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3387; 1.3419; 1.3464; 1.3534
Closest support levels 1.3362; 1.3340; 1.3296; 1.3229
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3387, with the target points at 1.3419 and 1.3464
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3362 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3340 and 1.3296

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11147

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls broke Moving Averages
11/2/2016

The price is rising, but bulls faced a resistance at 1.1087, so we’ve got a local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.1103 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.1038.

We’ve got a “Pennant” on the one-hour chart, which has been broken by the bullish rally. So, the price is likely going to continue rising towards the nearest resistance at 1.1103 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11148

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: flat inside "Rectangle"
11/2/2016

There’s a “Rectangle”, so the current consolidation is likely going to be continued in a range of this pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2089.

The price is consolidating between the nearest Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2271. It’s likely that this flat is going to end soon by a possible bullish price movement. However, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish price movement in the direction of a support at 1.2226 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11149

 

[riki143]

Markets are kindly disposed towards Aussie, but for how long?
11/2/2016

The Aussie is trading higher against other major currencies. There are at once several contributors to the recent AUD growth.

Perhaps the most significant one is tremendous commodity prices rises that delivered a boost to Australia’s terms of trade. Yesterday Reserve bank of Australia released its annual index of commodity prices. It indicated a sharp increase (by 16% in SDR terms) in the selling price of exported commodities. Over the year, coking coal prices have surged 150%, thermal coal is up 50%; iron ore edged up by 6.3%. All these commodities are the key units of Australian export.
The market concerns over the RBA’s rate cut dissipated yesterday as the bank left its current policy stance unchanged.
The China’s manufacturing data went ahead of expectations yesterday. The official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 for October instead of forecasted 50.4. Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, the best improvement since March 2011.
The rationale for AUD appreciation in relation to USD. The US dollar after rising against G10 currencies over the past three months finally started to roll back on the market’s anxiety over a Trump victory in the US presidential election. Aussie, unlike other currencies, managed to withstand the greenback’s pressure.


Trump’s victory would lead to increased uncertainty and deterioration in the market’s risk sentiment. Aussie should hold up better than other currencies given the situation in the commodity market, acceleration of China’s economic growth and favorable monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. In addition, if Trump by good/bad fortune manages to win, the Aussie may get an additional boost as the Fed could disregard the need for the rate hike in December.

According to the average forecast of analysts, the currency should fell down to 0.74 by the end of this year (the forecasts compiled and estimated by Bloomberg). UniCredit and ING Groep NV are more positive in their predictions for AUD. They believe that it may rise to the 0.80 level by the end of this year.

Those who are planning to trade Aussie in the longer-term should think of the possible downside in commodity prices, as they are high enough to attract additional supply to the market. The recent boom in coal prices is not expected to be sustained as the surge has been excessive, so prices should retreat from the present levels in the longer term. Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow believes that drop in commodity prices could drag Australian dollar below the 0.70 mark by the fourth quarter of 2017.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11150

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600
11/2/2016

AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600
Next sell target - 1.0470
AUD/NZD continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to impulse 3 - which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the long-term resistance level 1.0740 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from April.

Having recently broken the support level 1.0600 (low of the previous impulse (i)) - AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the accelerated impulse wave (iii) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0470 (low of the previous wave (b) and the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11151

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640
11/2/2016

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640
Next buy target - 0.9800
NZD/CAD continues to rise sharply in the minor impulse wave 3 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 0.9640 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9640 accelerated the active minor impulse 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11152

 

[riki143]

GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680
11/4/2016

GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680
Next buy target - 1.7000
GBP/CAD continues to rise – after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.6680 (former support level and the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from June). The breakout of the resistance level 1.6680 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse (5) from the middle of September.

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the accelerated minor impulse wave 3 (of the primary impulse III) toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.7000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11187

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
11/4/2016

We’ve got a local bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to move on until any bullish sign arrives.

There’s a “High Wave” pattern at the last low, which has a confirmation. However, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have an intraday bearish correction. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, there’ll be an option to see more bullish pressure.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11176

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local correction coming
11/4/2016

The price reached the nearest resistance, so we’ve got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11175

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & US NFP October: A bullish USD ahead of US elections?
11/4/2016

Today at 12:30GMT we’ll have the US Non-Farm Payrolls for October, where the market’s consensus is calling for an increase to 175,000 jobs from 156,000 registered in September. This data should provide more clues about the timing that the Fed will hike rates and chances are still higher for December’s meeting. With that being said, it will be interesting the volatility that this number should provide to a weak US Dollar, which had been posting losses in the last few days, ahead of the US presidential elections on next Tuesday.

Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias that had been strengthening in the last few days, as the US dollar remains bearish. The pair is consolidating its gains above the 200 SMA and one breakout above the resistance level of 1.1115, if data comes weaker than expected, should open the doors to test the 1.1190, while a breakout below the 1.1068 support area can push lower the pair towards 1.1018.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11177

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bulls are going to attack

On the USD/CHF daily chart, the target 0.99 has been fulfilled, the "bears" were stopped by the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and intermediate target 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern. If quotes move above the convergence zone at 0,9763-0,9768, it will be a signal of the end of the CD wave followed by the downward movement of the quotes towards 0.985 and 0.989.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge increases the risk of reversal of the downward short-term trend. A break of resistance at 0.9768 followed by the exit of quotes from the "bearish" trading channel could lead to the correction.

Recommendation: BUY 0,9768 SL 0,9713 TP 0,989

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11178

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls need a rest
11/4/2016

On the daily chart of gold, the first ($ 1300) of two targets on the long positions has been fulfilled. "Bulls" were stopped by resistance at $1305. Quotes failed to hold above the convergence zone ($1298-1305) thereby creating prerequisites for the correction towards the short-term uptrend.

On the hourly chart of gold, the price rise above $1306 will be a signal of the continuation of their rally. On the contrary, a successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel will strengthen the rollback risks towards $1,275. There is target 88.6% of the "Bat" pattern.

Recommendation: BUY $1306 SL $1290 TP $1340 BUY $1275 SL $1260 TP $1310.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11179

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: local flat going to be continued
11/4/2016

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.1122, so we’ve got the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 89 Moving Average. However, we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern here, so there’s an opportunity to have a bullish price movement afterwards.

The price is consolidating between the nearest support at 1.1122 and the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to test a resistance at 1.1122 once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.1069 – 1.1057.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11180

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to break downtrend
11/4/2016

Bulls have broken the last “Rectangle” pattern, but the price faced a resistance on the downtrend line afterwards. In this case, bulls is likely going to try to break this line and climb even higher. The main intraday target is a resistance at 1.2621.

We’ve got a local consolidation on the one-hour chart. It seems like bears are going to test a support at 1.2429 – 1.2399 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward price movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11181

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: testing Senkou Span B
11/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480, 1.2520.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2480; SL — 1.2500; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2310.

Reason: overbought market; irregular created bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11182

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: oversold Dollar
11/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.05; resistance – 103.35, 103.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.20; SL — 103.00; TP1 — 103.90; TP2 — 104.30.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A, but the oversold market; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11183

 

[riki143]

NFP forecasts from banks
11/4/2016

The consensus forecast for Non-Farm payrolls is 174K, for unemployment rate - 4.9%, for average hourly earnings - 0.3%

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11184