Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped upward correction
10/27/2016

We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0873. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to have an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0971.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last “Double Bottom” pattern has been confirmed by a bullish “Flag”. However, the price faced a resistance at 1.0951 afterwards, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver another decline.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11066

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: another pullback from Moving Average
10/27/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2089, so we’ve got a consolidation. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2089. If this level be broken, bears will be absolutely free to move on until any reversal pattern arrives.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation under a resistance at 1.2248. Therefore, this flat is likely going to be continued until we see any bearish pattern here. If so, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2089 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11067

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, October 27th
19/27/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 92 347 ? + 15 637 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0946; 1.0973; 1.0997; 1.1028
Closest support levels 1.0903; 1.0885; 1.0858; 1.0824
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0903, with target points at 1.0885 and 1.0858
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0946 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0973 and 1.0997

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 107 ? - 195 ?
Closest resistance levels 104.72; 104.92; 105.20; 105.55
Closest support levels 104.28; 104.08; 103.89; 103.62
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.72, with the target points at 104.92 and 105.20
Alternative scenario Moving below 104.28 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 104.08 and 103.89

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 222 ? - 40 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3383; 1.3401; 1.3434; 1.3484
Closest support levels 1.3332; 1.3305; 1.3266; 1.3210
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3383, with the target points at 1.3401 and 1.3434
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3332 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3305 and 1.3266

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11068

 

[riki143]

Stock market and US earnings season
10/27/2016

There is an earning season in the US, the period of time when many large companies release their quarterly earnings reports. This is a very attractive time for trading as the market experiences a lot of movements and immediately reacts to the new data. At the present, US companies with ever increasing frequency disappoint investors with worse-than-expected earnings records and don’t give hopes for the big profits in the near-term.

US stocks extended losses on Wednesday after the disappointing earnings report from technology bigshot Apple dragged on Wall Street. The S&P 500, slipped 3.73 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index heavily dependent on the performance of technology companies fell 33.13 points. The only winner was the Dow Jones Industrial Average which added 3.06 points due to better-than-expected results from Boeng Inc.

Current situation in the market

Besides the disappointing earnings reports, there is additional pressure on the stocks that comes from the inexhaustible US dollar strengthening. Typically, a rising dollar reflects into the disturbed stock market; the stocks fall when greenback adds a certain degree of strength. The U.S. dollar index which measures the value of the US dollar against other major currencies is rising since the end of September on the expectation of a rate hike in December. Now it stopped for a while consolidating near the 98.60 mark. The “bullish” trend may proceed until the Presidential elections scheduled for November 8, that will be a landmark event for all financial markets.

The US Dollar Index

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11070

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
10/27/2016

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0600
AUD/NZD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.0740 (which has reversed the price multiple times from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 (which also previously started from this resistance area).

AUD/NZD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0600 (which reversed the price earlier this month). Strong resistance remains at the aforementioned price level 1.0740.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11071

 

[riki143]

EUR/CHF reversed from support zone
10/27/2016

EUR/CHF reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0900
EUR/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0800 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse (1) from the end of June. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2).

EUR/CHF is likely to rise in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0900. Strong support remains at 1.0800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11072

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tower" prevented further decline
10/27/2016

There’re a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed enough. Also, the 21 Moving Average acted as a resistance. If this line be broken, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Doji” and “High Wave” patterns have been confirmed, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction.

We’ve got a “Tower” at the local low, which has a good confirmation. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bulls are likely going to move on in the short term. So, the last high could be broken soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11074

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US Q3 GDP: A top is already placed?
10/28/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US GDP Q3 and according to the market’s consensus, we could expect an increase to 2.5% from 1.4%. With the recent hopes fo a possible rate hike by the Fed in December’s meeting, it will be interesting to see which clues can bring us this indicator. During the second quarter, the US economy saw a modest expansion to 1.4%, but it was below the forecast. Let’s see if greenback’s strength will remain alive after the release.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is very bullish but overbought. A resistance can be seen at the 105.28 level, where a pullback can happen towards the 104.84 level. Currently, the pair is following a bullish trend line from October 19th low and 200 SMA has been acting well as dynamic support. If data comes above the expectations, then we can expect a cling to the 105.87 level, while a weak data, can produce a pullback to the 104.84 support zone.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11078

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi came closer to the Rubicon
10/28/2016

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes returned to the lower boundary of the long-term upward trade channel. Breakout of the support will lead to the correction in the direction of 0.7 and lower. In contrast, a rebound followed by activation of the "Bat" inverted pattern will create the prerequisites for the "bullish" trend.

On the hourly NZD/USD chart, if quotes go out from the downward trade channel with the subsequent attack of resistance at 0.7222, the "Bat" pattern can be activated. Its target 88.6% is located near the 0.743 level.

Recommendation: BUY 0,7222 SL 0,7167 TP 0,743.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11079

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are going to attack
10/28/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, "bears" are keeping the market under control. They are going to fulfill targets127.2% (1.0836) and 161.8% (1.0692) of the "Crab" pattern. However, the breakout of the resistance at 1,095-1,096 could lead to the correction in the direction of 38.2% (1,104) and 50% (1.1103) Fibonacci retracement levels from the last mid-term downward wave.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the inverted pattern 5-0 has been activated. Rebound from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the wave CD should lead to the change of the trend and correction. If it does not happen and the "bulls" fail to break resistance at 1,095-1,096, the fall of quotes below the 88.6% (1,086) level will be a signal for opening short positions.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11080

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for October 28, 2016
10/28/2016

The dollar Index changed a little having risen about 0.2% as smooth US data including unemployment claims, pending home sales and manufacturing activity increased chances for an interest rate hike in December. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell slightly due to the reduction of defense spendings. Today’s focus will be on advanced third-quarter US gross domestic product data due to show up at 12:30 GMT. Meanwhile, the US dollar still appreciates in the relation to other currencies.

USD/JPY remained at a three-month high on Friday (near the 105,3 level). Yesterday we got a package of inflation data from Japan. Core inflation figures show us that central bank failed to fight the deflation. National core inflation came in line with expectations. As we can see the yen hardly reacted to these numbers. The Bank of Japan is going to meet on Monday and Tuesday next week to discuss its monetary policy and set the rate. From the BOJ’s Governor Kuroda’s speeches, we may conclude that further easing is not at the table at the upcoming meeting.

The euro inched up a little having reached 1.09 level. Later today we will get GDP and inflation data from key Eurozone countries. This could offer some support to the European currency or dragged it lower.

Aussie and Kiwi rose yesterday in relation to the greenback. Earlier today we saw a number of Australian home sales. The release fell short of expectations, the new home sales rose by 2.7% in October, following a 6.1% gain in September. The data reflects a sharp deceleration in constructing activity. In addition, we had disappointing inflation data (producer price index was worse-than-expected). This caused AUD to lose some points.

Crude oil gained some momentum, having reached $50.47 on Thursday when Saudi Arabia claimed that it is going to reduce production at about 4% and thereby assuaged some lingering doubts about cooperation from other oil-producing countries at the OPEC meeting in November.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11081

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears get a chance
10/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2160; resistance – 1.2200.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2250; SL — 1.2270; TP1 — 1.2130; TP2 — 1.2100.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A and B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen but the prices are under Kijun-sen; the prices are under a Cloud.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11082

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: trades moved to negative area
10/28/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7580, 0.7520; resistance – 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7580; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7500.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud.

https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11083/03-audusdh4(43).png]

More:
[URL=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11083]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11083[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant"
10/28/2016

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the price achieved a support at 1.0873, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0847 in the short term. If this level be broken, bears will move on.

The last “Double Top” pattern confirmed by a bearish “Pennant”. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0867 – 1.0858 during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11084

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls
10/28/2016

The last “Pennant” has been broken, so the price meet with a support at 1.2135. The next target is a support at 1.2089. If this level turns out to be broken, the market is going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern arrives.

We’ve got a “Triple Top” on the one-hour chart. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.2089 – 1.2081. If bears smash this area, we could have a massive decline afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11085

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD weekly outlook for Oct.31-Nov.4
10/28/2016

AUD/USD spearheaded on Wednesday having reached the 0.7708 resistance line as the inflation data went ahead of expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.7% in the last quarter followed by a moderate rise of 0.4% in June. The quarterly increase could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting of Reserve Bank of Australia scheduled for November 1. But with persistently low annual inflation rate hardly reaching bank’s 2-3% target and below-trend domestic activity, the prospect of a rate cut should not be discarded in the longer-term.

Having surged on Wednesday, Aussie lost its momentum and started sliding back towards the support at 0.7563 located against the 100-day MA. All this happened due to the US dollar strengthening as the market anticipates a rate hike in December.

Next week should bring volatility to the chart as there will be the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, the FOMC’s meeting on November 2 and bunch of Australian statistical data (annual commodity prices, trade balance, the monthly update of the retail sales report). We should also pay attention to building approvals reflecting current constructing activity, one of the main Aussie’s drivers in the last consecutive months.

In the light of the FOMC’s meeting, we would rather be bearish on AUD/USD from current levels towards the nearest supports located at 0.7550 (trendline) and at 0.7470 (200-day MA on the daily timeframe). The RBA is more likely to stay on hold this meeting maintaining an easing bias as economic activity and inflation risks are still skewed to the downside. In contrast, the perspective of the Fed’s rate hike in December looks more brightly than ever. We should also keep in mind that AUD is a commodity currency. Possible tightening restrictions in China and the country’s commitment to cut carbon emissions under Paris Agreement could lead to a slowdown in its commodity demand and drag commodity prices from their present positions. And Aussie may fall with them.

Alternatively, if there is an increase in commodity prices, or if we get some positive statistical releases from Australia, AUD/USD will be up to test 0.7650, 0.7700 resistance lines once again. Also, Aussie may rise significantly if we hear some “dovish” statements/comments from the FOMC members.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11088

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to break local high
10/28/2016

We’ve got a “High Wave” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave” patterns, which both have a confirmation. Therefore, the current upward correction is going to be continued towards the last “Thrusting Line” pattern’s level.

There’s another “High Wave” on the one-hour chart. At the same time, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on the 89 Moving Average. So, there’s an opportunity to have a consolidation during the day. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11089

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as support
10/28/2016

The last “Three Methods” pattern has done a great job, cause the price is still rising. Moreover, there’s an opportunity to have another “Three Methods”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance level. As we can see on the Daily chart, the nearest “Window” has been broken, so bulls are free to move on until any reversal pattern arrives.

There’s a very strong bullish trend on the one-hour chart. However, we’ve got a “Doji” at the local high, so the price is likely going to get a support on the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11090

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for Oct. 31 - Nov. 4
10/28/2016

USD/JPY has risen significantly this week having reached the 105.4 from 103.8. This can be referred to the US dollar strengthening on the anticipation of a rate hike in December.

Yesterday we got a package of inflation data from Japan. Japan’s deflated economy experienced little evidence of price growth since August. Core inflation in Tokyo fell at 0.4%. National core inflation came in line with expectations (-0,5%). The USD/JPY showed a blip in response to the data, having lost some points, but then, started rising again.

Next week we will be anxious to get more hints on what the Bank of Japan will do next to spur inflation. It is widely expected to stand pat as Japan’s economic situation is not so different from that in late September, when the bank held its previous policy meeting. Back then the BOJ shifted its policy target to the yield curve instead of having recourse to a rate cut. The introduction of the cutting-edge policy of “yield curve control” was aimed at alleviating the negative impact of drastic quantitative easing.

Last week, Kuroda said that the BOJ will have to push back the time frame for hitting the inflation target once again. It is going to be the fifth time since Kuroda’s tenure. Lowering crude oil prices, tepid domestic demand and financial market instability brought to naught repetitive attempts of the bank to reach its inflation goal over three years.

Recently, we saw oil prices turning upward due to the anticipation of the oil output cut initiated by OPEC nations, this partially causes the yen to fall. A possible rate hike by the Fed could also weaken the yen against the greenback and help to push up consumer prices as Japan heavily depends on import. All these factors let the BOJ’s senior officials draw a rather positive picture for reaching their inflation goal in the future and hold off on the rate cut at this meeting.

Next week the yen has all chances to depreciate further against the US dollar. If FOMC members sound “hawkish” in the course of their meeting and if the BOJ divert from further easing, the pair may surge higher or continue to consolidate at its present level (at 105.2). Any disturbing manufacturing, labor data from the US could send the USD/JPY towards the nearest support lines located at 104.6, 104.1 (50-day MA), 103.9 (100-day MA) levels. Watch closer a bunch of the US releases on consumer prices, personal spending/income, manufacturing data releases coming on Tuesday and Thursday, statistical data on the labor market (NFP, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings) at the end of the week.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11091

 

[riki143]

GBP/CHF reversed from resistance zone
10/28/2016

GBP/CHF reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.2000
GBP/CHF recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.2200 (top of the earlier minor correction (a)), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the pervious downward impulse (v) from the end of September and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from June.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone started the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from September. GBP/CHF is likely to fall to the next sell target at the round support level 1.2000 (low of the earlier impulse wave 1).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11092