Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: price going to test Moving Averages
10/17/2016

The price faced a support at 1.0978, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a local upward correction in progress. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1032 – 1.1045 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will have a chance to test the nearest support at 1.0951 – 1.0911.

We’ve got another “V-Bottom” pattern on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1000 – 1.0984.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10902

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" pushing market lower
10/17/2016

The price is consolidating along a level at 1.2226. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to push the market even lower towards the next support area at 1.2089 – 1.1726 until any bullish pattern arrives. So, if we see a reversal pattern, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction.

There’s a flat, which is taking place under the Moving Averages. Moreover, we’ve got another “Pennant” here, so the price is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2098 – 1.1726. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10903

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: diagonal triangle
10/17/2016

There’s a bearish impulse in wave , which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that wave (v) is going to be continued in the short term. If a pullback from 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

Considering that the last wave i is a zigzag, there’s a chance to have a diagonal triangle in wave (v). Meanwhile, wave ii is likely going to end in the coming hours, so wave iii could be started soon. The main intraday target is -2/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10904

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & CPI (YoY): A bottom in the Euro is already placed?
10/17/2016

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the CPI for September on a yearly basis for Europe and it seems that the reading will remain unchanged for this time and this week, we’ll have some action from the ECB, as their interest rate decision will take place on Thursday. Officials have been closely watching for the data mentioned above, but one could expect some volatility during the release, because of recent Euro’s selling pressure.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is very bearish, as the pair already managed to consolidate below the 500 SMA and at the end of last week, we saw that the price closed below the 1.10 psychological level. The nearest support is placed at the 1.0955 level and a breakout lower should expose the 1.0909 level. However, if EUR/USD does a strong rebound at the current stage, it should face a key resistance around 1.1043.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10899

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD ahead of BoC's interest rate decision: Re-taking the bullish bias?
10/19/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT will be published the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, where the central bank is expected to leave unchanged its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as the analysts are waiting for no changes. At the same time, will be released the monetary policy report, that could bring some further hints in terms of economic policies for coming months. Remember that interest rates from the BoC have been on hold since May 2015.

Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a key support around 1.3066, which is slightly below the 200 SMA. With dovish words by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie may perform a strong rebound at current levels and afterward, it can skyrocket towards the 1.3260 level in a first degree. By the other hand, if the pair manages to break the 1.3000 psychological level, then it can test the 1.2900 zone in coming days.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10939

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: "bulls" are going to counterattack
10/19/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bulls" failed to keep the quotes above resistance at 1.3306, it has become a signal of their weakness. "Bears" pulled down the pair to the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. Here the "bulls" may launch their counterattack.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" are trying to regain their initiative, having broken the boundaries of the downward trading channel. Successful test of resistance at 1,315 may lead to the restoration of uptrend. If the target 127.2% of the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern (1.3) is fulfilled, it will create prerequisites for the attack of "bulls".

Recommendations:

BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP1 1,324 TP2 1,3305

BUY 1,3 SL 1,2945 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,324.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10940

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is tired of moving southwards
10/19/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes came closer to the upper boundary of the consolidation range 1,2109-1,2317. Successful test of resistance line will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1,248 and 1,285.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, "bulls" failed to test the resistance line at 1.2215. Nevertheless, they are still determined to break this important level. If they manage to do so, the targets 78.6% and 127.2% in the "Hartley" and "Crab" patterns will be fulfilled. They are located at the 1.24 and 1.257 levels.

Recommendation: BUY 1,2315 SL 1,226 TP1 1,24 TP2 1,257

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10941

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: on the Cloud support
10/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is falling down; an untypical golden cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the correction may continue in the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10942

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: correction may continue
10/19/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2230; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400.

Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and formed a strong support near 1.2200.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10943

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for October 19
10/19/2016

Aussie and especially Kiwi did their best in the course of the last trading sessions. Despite the fact that dairy auction results fell short of expectations, kiwi experienced a significant upsurge. It managed to test the resistance above 0.7225 and continued its rally towards the new hurdle at 0.725. But since NZD and AUD outperformed in last sessions, there could be slight roll backs from their current position.

In China everything is proceeding according to plan. GDP data, retail sales and fixed asset investment came out in line with expectations. But there is always something that goes wrong. This time industrial production data disappointed Chinese authorities having reached 6.1% instead of forecasted 6.4%.

USD is losing its momentum across the trading desk and depreciates in relation to yen, Aussie, EUR, NZD...Well, I guess you got the idea.

Pound is lagging again. It struggled to test the resistance at 1.231, but gave in very fast. Now it’s hovering around the 1.227 level. Today the monthly update on the UK labor market will show up. We’ll also see new numbers on US residential housing construction for September. The forecast for these data is neutral.

Today we expect USD/CAD to work in a sweat ahead and after the Bank of Canada’s rate statement and monetary policy report. Analysts say that there shouldn’t be any significant changes in the BOC’s monetary stance. Once the dovish tone is caught in the words of BOC, Canadian dollar could slide from its current position (the pair may rise in the direction of 1.317 level. If the BOC decides to keep rate on hold, Loonie may take it out on the US dollar (the pair could fall towards 1.306 – 1.301 area).

Oil prices rose significantly on the report of a drop in U.S. crude inventories and declining production in China. Long-awaited OPEC statement on its planned output cut offers additional support to the oil market. A weaker dollar boosted oil as well. International Brent crude futures added almost 40 points from the opening of today’s session. Later on we will receive the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official crude and fuel storage data. Analysts expect the reduction of oil inventories. It might lift oil prices again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10944

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" points to new local low
10/19/2016

There’s a local consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the price is likely going to test a support at 1.0951 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.1045.

We’ve got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.0960 – 1.0951 during the day. At the same time, there’s an option to see an upward movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10945

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
10/19/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2476.

The 89 Moving Average has acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a local flat. In this case, it’s likely to see a bearish price movement towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476 as an intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10946

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, October 19th
10/19/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 68 950 ? + 286 946 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1011; 1.1040/56; 1.1077; 1.1103
Closest support levels 1.0991; 1.0970; 1.0952; 1.0928
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0991, with target points at 1.0970 and 1.0952
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1011 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1040 and 1.1077

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 402 ? + 199 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2357; 1.2383; 1.2400; 1.2419
Closest support levels 1.2268; 1.2245; 1.2211; 1.2164
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2268, with target points at 1.2245 and 1.2211
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2357 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2383 and 1.2400

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 674 ? + 797 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.94; 104.18/36; 104.59; 104.87
Closest support levels 103.34; 103.19; 102.98; 102.72
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 103.34, with the target points at 103.19 and 102.98
Alternative scenario Moving above 103.94 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 104.18 and 104.59

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10947

 

[riki143]

Tips on trading NZD from Westpac
10/19/2016

Westpac turns off from the beaten trail and suggests to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD. The kiwi may appreciate in near-term as overall economic activity remains strong across all sectors in New Zealand. Confidence among businesses and consumers doesn’t fade away, and the dairy sector shows green shoots. Despite all these factors NZD may fall in relation to USD because of the looming threat of the RBNZ’ rate cut in November and anticipated rate hike from the Fed. That’s why the Australian bank believes that buying NZD/CHF is safer than NZD/USD (it buys NZD/CHF at 0.7080 with a stop at 0.6995).

The inflation data for New Zealand surprised markets yesterday with a stronger than expected print of 0.2%. This lifted the kiwi in relation to other currencies across the trading desk. But the recent bounce in NZD’s movement shouldn’t last long as rate cut expectations continued to build ahead of the RBNZ meeting. So, the decision to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD could be wise.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10949

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD into the ECB
10/19/2016

EUR/USD failed to close above 1.1000 on Tuesday, although the US dollar was weakened by lower core CPI. According to CME, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rate in December declined from 64% to 60%.

Tomorrow’s meeting of the European Central Bank will be in the center of the market’s attention after the recent speculation that the ECB may start tapering its quantitative easing program. The event should cause a spike in volatility. The ECB president Mario Draghi will have to comment on these tapering rumors. In addition, traders will be looking for signs that the ECB will extend QE program beyond March 2017. The prevailing opinion of the economists is that the regulator will announce QE extension this year.

EUR/USD is trading below the weekly pivot level of 1.1047 and should remain below this point as the market is waiting for the outcome of the ECB meeting. Taking into account the fact that last week it breached 2 important support lines – support from the end of 2015 and 2016 support – the risks for the euro have shifted to the bearish side. If the ECB hints on additional easing, we’ll see another selloff of the single currency. The target is 1.0950/11 area (important support of June/July lows, 61.8% Fibo of 2015-2016 increase) ahead of 1.0890 (first weekly pivot support). Note that the euro’s decline on the ECB may be short-lived as the regulator’s loose monetary policy is largely priced in. On the upside, above 1.1047 further resistance lies at 1.1060 and 1.1100/20.

Other important events for EUR/USD include the third and the last presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. There will be also comments from the Federal Reserve members Williams and Kaplan, who don’t vote this year, and Dudley, who is a voter, though his speech will likely be not about the monetary policy.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10950

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end
10/19/2016

We’ve got an ended impulse in wave . The price couldn’t find a lodgement under 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), so we’ve got wave [ii], which is likely going to be continued in the short term. If a pullback from 5/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave (i).

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave [ii] is taking form of a double zigzag. So, it’s likely that the price is going to break the last high of wave (w). However, bears will probably try to deliver another downward impulse later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10956

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen is gathering momentum
10/19/2016

USD/JPY experienced some losses in the course of today’s trading session. Now the pair is hovering around the 103.3 level. The recent yen’s appreciation has occurred due to several reasons:

1. On Monday we got disappointing release of US manufacturing data. These numbers could have an important bearing on the Fed’s interest rate decision in December. That’s why the US dollar showed a slack in relation to other currencies.

2. Volatility index posted a slight upsurge as investors become nervous ahead of the third US Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. JPY appreciates in time of crisis and financial instabilities that’s why any additional up-tick in VIX could cause the yen to rise.

3. It’s still unclear whether the Bank of Japan will recourse to additional easing as it had promised earlier or not. For much of 2016 it stayed on the sidelines not changing radically its monetary stance, despite a weak economy and deflation concerns. If BOJ doesn’t change its current interest rates at its next policy meeting scheduled for October 31, the yen could get additional support.

If we look at the technical chart, we will see that USD/JPY stepped into the Ichimoku cloud which means that we may expect a consolidation in the near-time. Any further disappointing US economic data may drag the pair towards the 102.8 mark (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). Alternatively, if investors’ expectations over an imminent Fed rate-hike move reinforce once again, the USD/JPY might test resistance line located at 103.76, against the 50-day MA on the 4H chart.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10957

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears ready to deliver new low
10/19/2016

We’ve got a “Tower” on the 13 Moving Average, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average once again in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Thrusting Line”, so bears are likely going to move on.

There’re an “Engulfing” and a “Doji” at the local lows, which both have been confirmed enough. So, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average during the day. However, if a pullback from this line be on the table, bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

More:
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[riki143]

EUR/USD & ECB's interest rate decision: Will Draghi provide some hints on further QE "tapering"?
10/20/2016

Today at 11:45 GMT we’ll have the ECB’s interest rate decision, where is highly expected to see that officials will leave unchanged its policies and rates will stay on hold. During the last meeting, economic forecast was changed slightly by Mario Draghi, but today’s headline could be any hints that ECB’s president may provide about a possible QE tapering. If we hear some words about it, then EUR may pop higher, as demand will increase.

Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a very weak pair, as the spot is finding support at the 1.0969 level. There is still a high risk to the downside, because if the pair manages to do a breakout there, we could expect another decline towards the 1.0821 level, which is well below the July’s lows. In another scenario, where Draghi’s words may be hawkish or specifically, he brings some hints about QE tapering., we can expect a rebound towards the 1.1154 level in a first degree.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10961

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls retreat, but don't give up
10/20/2016

On the daily chart AUD/USD reached 0.7710 target of the long positions. The bulls failed to move higher because of the bears' counterattack. Never the less, if Aussie manages to settle above 0.7690, this may be regarded as the retest of the neckline of the inversed "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It will be a signal for opening long positions.

On H1 AUD/USD the break of support at 0.7660 will activate the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is at 0.7595 level. If the buyers manage to return inside the borders of the short-term channel, they may easily restore the bullish trend.

Recommendation: BUY 0,769 SL 0,7635 TP 0,785 BUY 0,7595 SL 0,7540 TP1 0,769 TP2 0,775.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10962