Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro is losing firm ground
10/20/2016

On the daily EUR/USD chart the bearish trend is resuming. This conclusion may be drawn from the fact that the pair returned to the previous descending channel. The attempts of the bulls to launch a counterattack have failed. The break of support at 1.0950-1.0955 will make the euro resume the decline. Targets are at 1.0895 and 1.0840.

On H1 «Three moves» pattern means that the pair may slide to 1.09 and lower. The nearest resistance lies at 1.1040. It it's tested successfully, we'll see a correction.

Recommendation: hold short from 1.1.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10963

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: testing the September highs
10/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7730; TP2 — 0.7780.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the rising lines of Indicator Ichimoku.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10965

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: on the bearish pressure
10/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 103.50, 103.05/10; resistance – 103.80, 104.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10966

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: resistance by Moving Average
10/20/2016

The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089 in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bulls will have a chance to reach the 34 Moving Average.

We’ve got a flat, which is taking place between the nearest resistance at 1.2323 and the 55 & 34 Moving Averages. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10968

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720
10/20/2016

AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720
Next sell target - 0.7600
AUD/USD today reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7720, which is the lower border of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing this currency pair from April (As you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The upper boundary of this strong resistance zone stands at the resistance level 0.78000 (which reversed the previous primary ABC correction in the middle of April).

Given the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/USD can be expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the nearby support level 0.7600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10970

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row
10/20/2016

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0911. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0978 – 1.1001.

We’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.0951 – 1.0911 during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.0960 – 1.0978.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10967

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: trading in the Cloud
10/20/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2230, 1.2260; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400.

2. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400.

Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but a rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10964

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, October 20th
10/20/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 81 420 ? + 205 883 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1030; 1.1047; 1.1070; 1.1098
Closest support levels 1.0974(?); 1.0946; 1.0924 (Critical); 1.0896
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0974, with target points at 1.0946 and 1.0924
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1030 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1047 and 1.1070

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 583 ? + 562 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2329; 1.2373(56?); 1.2393; 1.2416
Closest support levels 1.2257; 1.2239; 1.2210; 1.2167
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2257, with target points at 1.2239 and 1.2210
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2329 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2373 and 1.2393

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 784 ? + 1 088 ?
Closest resistance levels 103.65; 104.04; 104.31; 104.65
Closest support levels 103.14(?); 102.90; 102.74; 102.54
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.65, with the target points at 104.04 and 104.31
Alternative scenario Moving below 103.14 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.90 and 102.74

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 237 ? + 440 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3191; 1.3236; 1.3294; 1.3364
Closest support levels 1.3113; 1.3094; 1.3077; 1.3048
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3191, with the target points at 1.3236 and 1.3294
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3113 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3094 and 1.3077

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10969

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: correction started
10/20/2016

The price has been falling down since an “Engulfing” was formed at the local high. However, we’ve got a “Doji” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, but these patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, it’s likely that bulls will try to reach the nearest resistance line, which could be a departure point to a new bearish rally.

We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Tweezers” at the last lows, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, there’s an option to have another decline afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10973

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "High Wave" led to bullish correction
10/20/2016

We’ve got a “Belt Hold” at the local low, which has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a resistance by the upper “Window”. Also, we’ve got a confirmed “Dark Cloud” pattern. In this case, bears are likely going to push the market lower soon.

There’s a “High Wave” pattern, which has a confirmation. Meanwhile, the nearest Moving Averages are acting as a support. So, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10974

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: diagonal triangle
10/20/2016

Wave is likely going to end soon, because we’ve got a diagonal triangle in wave (v). So, there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200).

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave iv of the diagonal triangle is going to end. Therefore, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low shortly. At the same time, there’s an option to have an upward correction later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10975

 

[riki143]

Recap on the BOC rate statement + forecast for USD/CAD
10/20/2016

Yesterday the Bank of Canada announced that it holds rate at 0.5%. Governor Stephen Poloz in his speech delivered later that day noted that the board discussed the possibility of adding stimulus to the staggering economy, but ruled in favor of not changing its monetary stance. The policy makers decided that it would be better not to take any radical measures because of the increasing number of uncertainties related to the effects of the new mortgages rules, the path of exports, the effect of the U.S. election on business confidence and national economy. The bank has already cut interest rates twice this year striving to spur the stubbornly stagnating economic growth. The current interest rates seem to be appropriate for the period of heightened uncertainty, according the BOC’s members.

Loonie initially rose after the BOC’s announcement, but Poloz’s comments at the press conference skewed the market bullish sentiment, and the currency slipped a little again. Now the quotes are hovering around the 1.318 level, having broken the resistance line at 1.317 plotted against the 50-day MA. Stochastic stepped in overbought area on the 4H timeframe, so, we may expect USD/CAD to fall down the 1.315 mark (50% Fibonacci retracement level) and the support line at 1.318 in the near-term (also note, that the 50-day MA is almost crossed the 100-day MA, technically, it is considered be a rather good selling signal). Overall sentiment in relation to this currency pair remains bullish, especially if today’s update on the Philly Fed’s regional index and unemployment claims come in ahead of expectations.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10976

 

[riki143]

Oil prices down again
10/20/2016

Oil prices were rising during the last consecutive trading sessions. Energy Information Administration figures released on Wednesday were in line with expectations. The EIA’s data showed a significant decrease in the US crude inventories by almost 469 mln barrels. This offered additional support to the oil prices.

Today oil fell on profit-taking after the last trading session. Brent crude slipped down the $51.63 mark. Despite this drop, sentiment remains upbeat on hopes that OPEC will freeze oil production at its meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that Saudi Arabia is planning not only to freeze, but also to curb the current production volumes pursuing the target of oil glut reduction. However, we should consider the fact that usually in summer Saudis increase oil output substantially, while in autumn it normally decreases. Saudis will try to bluff everybody into believing that their seasonal reduction of oil output is their attempt to fulfill their obligations under the oil freeze deal. Another thing to beware of it that the OPEC members are going to cut their production of oil only for a period of 6 months or year. Then, they might try to catch up and increase their market share. So, the reduction of global oil glut followed by significant rise in prices on this fuel is more like a pipe dream, than reality in a long perspective.

Baker Hughes rig count figures are due out Friday. Higher prices could encourage an increase in U.S. shale activity.

The dollar index is higher today. A stronger dollar may also depress demand for oil and force quotes to fall down the key support at $50 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10977

 

[riki143]

30 Pips A Day Forex Trading Strategy
10/20/2016

Today I am going to tell you a story of a guy named Fred who managed to earn $1,000,000 with just 40 trades. Very impressive, I agree. Here is one of the strategies he suggests. It’s called a 30 pips a day forex trading strategy. You know that GBP/JPY is rather volatile currency pair that can make big swings (from 100-200 pips). So, our aim is not to capture all this price margin in the course of a trading session, but just 30 pips. Once we are done with embellishment of a story, we can proceed to real things – the description of the strategy.

“Key ingredients”:

Choose GBP/JPY currency pair
Switch to the 5 minutes’ screen
Add some indicators to your chart: 10 and 26 exponential moving averages (EMA)
How to trade:

If 10 EMA intersects 26 EMA and goes up, we are facing with an uptrend. If 10 EMA intersects 26 EMA and goes down, there is a downtrend. After we found the EMA’s crosses, we should identify traders’ action zone (a reversal zone, a zone of buying or selling depending or what the market main trend is). It occurs at the end of the minor rally in the dominant bullish trend

Imagine that the market main trend is down, there could be some minor rally in a downtrend market. That price rally (short-term upward price move) usually ends in a traders’ action zone when the price starts falling in the direction of the main trend again. A similar in logic, but opposite situation also happens if the market is bullish.

Your actions in the case of a downtrend:

You notice that 10 EMA crosses 26 EMA and goes down.

You don’t sell immediately after the formation of the cross; you should wait for a retrace.

Then, you sell immediately when a candlestick gets into the traders’ action zone halfway between the 10 EMA and 26 EMA.

You place stop loss at 15-20 pips

Your take profit target is 30 pips

Your actions in the case of an uptrend:

You notice that 10 EMA crosses 26 EMA and goes down.

You don’t buy immediately after the formation of the cross; you should wait for a retrace.

Then, you buy immediately when a candlestick gets into the traders’ action zone halfway between the 10 EMA and 26 EMA.

You should place stop loss at 15-20 pips

Your take profit target is 30-40 pips

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10979

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bulls brought the situation under control
10/21/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, quotes move towards target 127.2% located at 1,007 in the "Ideal butterfly" inverted pattern. The "bulls" managed to push quotes out of the consolidation range of 0,985-0,992. If there is a retest of the support at 0.992, it will be a signal for opening long positions.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there are great risks of realization of the target 261.8% located at the 1.0015 level in the AB = CD pattern. There is the upper limit of the upward trading channel.

Recommendation: BUY 0,992 SL 0,9865 TP1 1,0015 TP2 1,007.

More;
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10980

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears are setting a trap
10/21/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" are trying to regain the initiative in their hands. If there is a test of the resistance line located at 104.45, it could open the way towards the target 78.6% (105.8) in the "Hartley" inverted pattern. The support line lies near the 103.5 mark.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to break the resistance line at 104.55, it will be a signal of their weakness. If it happens, the quotes may roll back towards the support at 103.5, followed by patterning of the expanding wedge.

Recommendation: SELL 104,55 SL 105,10 TP 103,5

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10981

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for October 21
10/21/2016

Euro fell down the 1.0892 level as the ECB left its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, but kept the door wide open for the more stimulus to boost staggering Eurozone economic growth. The ECB president Mario Draghi doused the recent paper hoax that the bank is going to taper its 1.7 trillion euro asset-buying program. So, in the near-term we may expect further broad USD strengthening across the trading desk.

US dollar, having taken dope from the ECB press conference, rose in relation to yen and franc in the course of last trading session. Today the yen managed to get its own back after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank may slow its bond purchases, if 10-year government bond yields fall well below its target of around 0%. BOJ once again had to push back the timing for reaching its 2% inflation target.

Sterling slipped down the 1.2234 level on the USD strengthening and on the comments from D. Tusk (president of the European Council) that Theresa May had confirmed to trigger Brexit talks by end March 2017. Aussie dropped significantly over the last trading sessions, but now it has finally started to show the revival signs as quotes failed to reach the support at 0.7615 level (50-day MA).

On the gold chart, a new downtrend is showing up. Gold lost a few dollars since yesterday.

There are no any significant events scheduled for today. We will keep an eye on the Canadian inflation data coming soon. Also, there will be EU Economic Summit, but it shouldn’t bring volatility to technical charts.

Morre:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10982

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: time for correction
10/21/2016

The last consolidation was finally ended the yesterday’s bearish rally. The price faced a support at 1.0896, but the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0847. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction.

We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current decline. Considering a support at 1.0896, bulls are likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0929 – 1.0951 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0896 – 1.0847.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10983

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: angry bears ready to move on
10/21/2016

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the closest resistance at 1.2323. So, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089 in the short term. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will have an opportunity to test the 34 Moving Average.

The price is moving up and down between the levels 1.2330 – 1.2226. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2132 during the day. However, there’s an option to have a local bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10984

 

[riki143]

Forecasts for EUR/USD from CITI bank
10/21/2016

CITI is short EUR/USD from 1.1080 with target at 1.0525. The bank traced the formation of the Head and shoulders” pattern on the EUR/USD daily timeframe indicating a possible downfall in the upcoming days. The first major support is located in the 1.0822 – 1.0826 area. Below these levels the losses may extend towards the next support lines located at 1.0458 and 1.0524 levels accordingly.

Fundamentally, there are several reasons that could confirm the technical picture described above.

While the Fed is considering the rate hike in the near-term, the ECB will unlikely make any moves towards tightening being overwhelmed with concerns about the efficacy of the low interest rates.
Inflation expectations in American continent are much more elevated than in the world of Grand Dame Europe.
The European yields compare poorly with their American homologues. American yields provide more profits with lesser risks, whereas Europe offers very lower spreads with high risks.
Brexit creates an uncertainty for the European Union as well as the UK
The recent scandal with Deutsche Bank showed the fragility of the European baking system and raised some concerns about capitalization of European banks.
Italian referendum scheduled for December 4 weights on the future of the Eurozone.
Immigration crisis + high risk of political instability is hovering in the air.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10985