Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are not discouraged
7/22/2016

On the daily chart the attempt of the sellers to break below 1.1 once again didn't succeed. However, the bears are still retain the initiative and keep try pulling the pair out of 1.1-1.1175 range aiming at 161.8% of AB=CD (1.089) target. the nearest resistance is at 1.1072 (38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave).

On H1 EUR/USD chart resistance at 1.1038 mentioned in the previous article twice stopped the bulls. The pair is currently consolidating in the 1.0987-1.1052 range. Successful test of its upper border will bring the pair up to 1.1074 and 1.1096, break of the lower border will open the way down to 1.089.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9722

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls are driving the market
7/22/2016

On the daily USD/CAD chart the bulls aim to test the upper border of the triangle (1.3186). Successful break of this resistance will allow the pair to rise to 1.3306 (38.2% Fibo of the last decsending wave and 1.3540 (161.8% target according to AB=CD). The buyers are holding the initiative.The main recommendation is to buy the US dollar on the pullbacks down.

On H1 USD/CAD is trading within an uptrend. The level of 1.314 acts as a target (target at 161.8% according to AB=CD). The nearest support is at 1.3075.

Recommendation: BUY 1,3075 SL 1,3 TP1 1,33 TP2 1,354.

CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9723

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF reached buy target 0.7600
7/22/2016

CAD/CHF reached buy target 0.7600
Next sell target – 0.7420
CAD/CHF continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 - which began earlier- when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 0.7600 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7600 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7600 completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 from June.

CAD/CHF is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 0.7420, which has been reversing the price from May.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9724

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
7/22/2016

EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
Next buy target - 1.4600

EUR/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started recently – when the pair reversed up from the support level 1.4280 (upper boundary of the strong support zone which has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from last November, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below). The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to wave (3) - which also began from the aforementioned support zone.

EUR/CAD is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4600 (which previously reversed the price in June).

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9725[B

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: two "V-Bottoms" in a row points to possible new high
7/22/2016

The price is consolidating under the previously broken “Triangle”. Also, we’ve got two local “V-Bottoms” in a row. So, the market is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970.

We’ve got a local flat between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0980. Therefore, the pair is likely going rise in the direction of a resistance at 1.1057 – 1.1074. However, if a pullback from this area arrives later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.0970.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9726

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: flat in the "Triangle"
7/22/2016

The price has been moving in a flat’s range along a resistance at 1.3226. Also, we’ve got a “Triangle”, so the pair is likely going to move up towards the 89 Moving Average. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to have a downward movement, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3116 – 1.3015.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress. It’s likely that the market is going to reach the closest resistance at 1.3313 – 1.3336 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably reach the next support at 1.3104 – 1.3063.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9727

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY will test mark at 104.69
7/22/2016

The pair failed to consolidate above the level of 4/8 (106.25). In addition, there was price fixing below STH4, that indicates a possible decline to the level of 3/8 (104.69). STD1 changed color, which also contributes to the bearish scenario. The fall can be held with the current position, so in the near future we should testing of mark at the level 3/8 (104.69). Slight breakdown upward STH4 is unlikely to change the plans of the bears.

Trade recommendation:

Sell – 106.30; sl – 107.20; tp 104.60.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9728

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to come back to the market
7/22/2016

There’s a resistance by the upper “Window”. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance by the middle of the last huge black candle. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a couple of “High Waves”, but their confirmation hasn’t arrived yet. So, a downward movement is going to move on until any reversal pattern forms.

We’ve got a local correction under the upper “Window”. At the same time, there’s a resistance by the 55 Moving Average, but we have a confirmed “Harami” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9729

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Harami" brought the bearish correction
7/22/2016

There’s a “Harami” at the last high, which has been confirmed enough, so the price reached the 144 Moving Average afterwards. The pair is likely going to achieve the middle of the last huge black candle. However, if a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to continue the current downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation is still on the way. Therefore, bears are going to achieve the 21 Moving Average soon.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Hammer” at the nearest strong support level. So, it’s likely to see a local correction during the day, but the next stage on the current bearish correction is still on the table.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9730

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for July 25-31
7/22/2016

Data released in the United States during the past week were mostly positive: building permits, housing starts and existing home sales exceeded expectations, while unemployment claims were at their lowest since April. The biggest disappointment was the slide in Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

Next week the focus will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve since the Brexit vote. The central bank is not expected to raise interest rate, but traders, as usual, will be watching the changes in its statement. It’s interesting how the Fed evaluates the impact of Britain’s decision to leave the euro area on the US economy. According to the Federal funds rate futures, the possibility of a rate hike in the US by December increased since the beginning of the month from 12% to 45%. If American data keep coming positive, traders will start pricing in higher US rates. Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, which are expected to ease policy this summer – the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand, – will once again become the main driver of the market supporting demand for the US dollar.

US dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the greenback versus a basket of currencies, breached resistance at 96.80. This level limited dollar’s advance since the end of June. Above 97.00 next targets lie and 97.50 and 98.00.

Other important events in the US economic calendar next week include CB consumer confidence and new home sales on Tuesday, core durable goods orders on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday and advance GDP for Q2 and Chicago PMI on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9731

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for July 25-31
7/22/2016

During the past week EUR/USD moved lower, but remained in range, within which it’s staying since the end of June. The euro was affected by extremely weak economic sentiment indicators from Germany and the euro area. In addition, despite the fact that traders didn’t expect the European Central Bank to ease policy on Thursday, they were looking forward to dovish comments by the regulator’s president Mario Draghi.

However, Draghi gave very little insight on future policy of the ECB. He noted that growth and inflation were moving along the path projected in June and that the regulator will monitor the economic situation. Draghi also said that if needed the ECB will act using all available tools. However, the regulator’s head gave no hints that monetary stimulus may be extended in September. That’s why there was no big euro selloff after the meeting. In addition, the euro area’s July manufacturing and services PMIs released on Friday turned out better than expected showing that these sectors aren’t much concerned about Brexit.

The economic calendar for the next week is also rather interesting. On Monday Germany will release retails sales and Ifo business climate. On Wednesday German consumer climate will be published and on Friday we’ll learn euro area’s flash inflation and preliminary GDP for Q2. Statistics from the US may be even more important for EUR/USD, so check American calendar as well. We think that there will be opportunities to sell the pair on its attempts to get a bit higher, but with the lack of action from the ECB we expect no strong decline in the euro. Support is at 1.0970 and 1.0920. Resistance is at 1.1080 and 1.1130.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9732

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for July 25-31
7/22/2016

GBP/USD spent most of the week between 1.3330 and 1.3070. On the one hand, the pound was supported by higher UK labor market data. However, British retail sales contracted and services PMI fell by almost 5 points.

All in all, the picture for sterling looks more negative than positive. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its forecasts for the UK, while G20 draft communiqué stated that the recent ‘Brexit’ vote could collaborate with the global uncertainty. The Bank of England is expected to ease monetary policy in about 2 weeks. As the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike start to revive, this won’t allow GBP/USD to achieve any sizeable growth. We expect the pound to stay under pressure.

Next week pay attention to the UK preliminary GDP on Wednesday, Gfk consumer confidence on Thursday and net lending to individuals on Friday. Support is at 1.3050 ahead of 1.2860 and 1.2500. Resistance lies at 1.3300 and 1.3500.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9733

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for July 25-31
7/22/2016

USD/JPY made an attempt to take out 107.50, but failed to break higher and returned to the 106.00 area. The advance of the pair since the beginning of July was caused by speculation the Bank of Japan would directly finance Japanese government debt – a policy known as “helicopter money”. This week selloff was triggered by the release of the interview given by the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda to BBC Radio, in which he said that Japan doesn’t need to and won’t do such thing.

Yet, note that after the retracement to the downside the pair stayed above the key support levels at 105.00 and 103.50. The reason of such resilience is that traders think that even if the BOJ doesn’t use such unconventional tool as “helicopter money”, it will expand its current monetary stimulus measures at its meeting on Friday, July 29. As Kuroda said, “there are no significant limitations to further monetary easing”.

The Bank of Japan has reasons to act, because Japanese economic statistics remains week and consumer prices keep contracting. Fresh inflation figures from Japan will be also released on Friday. Yet, with USD/JPY far above 100.00, the Bank of Japan can allow itself not to be very aggressive. For now, the general downtrend is still in place – see the declining daily MAs. A fix above 200-week MA at 106.70 is needed to give the bulls more power. Fundamentally the figures out of the United States will also have an impact on USD/JPY next week as they may change the expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s rates. If the pair manages to overcome resistance at 107.50, next stops will be at 108.25 and 109.60.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9734

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for July 25-31
7/22/2016

Australian dollar declined on the expectations that the Reserve bank of Australia will cut interest rate at the next meeting in August. The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the central bank thinks that the nation’s economic growth may have declined in Q2, while inflation remains weak.

The most important piece of information ahead of the RBA meeting will be the release of Australian Q2 inflation figures on Wednesday: the data will either strengthen the case for lower rates or make the market reprice the odds of a rate cut.

AUD/USD is trading just above 0.7450 – this is a support line connecting May and June lows. Below this point support is at 0.7400 and 0.7350. Resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9735

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & German Ifo Business Climate: En route to 1.0900?
7/24/2016

Today at 08:00 GMT will be released a key data for Germany, as we'll know the Ifo Business Climate for July and this would be an interesting event to pay attention following Brexit's outcome, as the last ZEW sentiment report gave hints that Brexit's referendum will play a role into the german economy's development for coming months. Numbers in recent months have been positive for Ifo, but a slight decline from 108.7 to 107.7 is expected by analysts.

The technical overview for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still calling for more downside after recent positive US data published. Also, the uncertainty around Eurozone's economy following “Brexit” is still alive. There is one bearish trend line projected from July 14th highs and the pair is consolidating below the 200 SMA. A breakout below the 1.0958 level (if Germany's data is dovish) will open the doors to reach the 1.0909 zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9737

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: will the bears manage to hold positions?
7/25/2016

On the daily EUR/USD chart the bears made another attempt to seize 1.1-1.1175 and suceeded. The level of 1.1 is currently acting as resistance. Downward target is at 1.089 (161.8% according to AB=CD).

On H1 resistance levels lie at 1.0987, 1.1036 and 1.1053. If the first of them is breached, the pair could test the upper border of the bearish trend and then move to 88.6% target of a "Bat" pattern. If the bears manage to protect their gains, decline towards 1.0890 will continue.

Recommendation: hold short positions.

EUR

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9738

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" blocked bearish rally
7/25/2016

The price has been consolidating under the previously broken “Triangle” pattern. Also, bears faced a support at 1.0970, which led to form a “Double Bottom”, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1001 – 1.1015 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to see a decline towards a support at 1.0911.

There was a flat between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0980. Finally, sellers tried to break the flat’s lower side, but a bearish rally didn’t happen, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1001 – 1.1015 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, a following downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9740

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears trying to escape from the "Triangle"
7/25/2016

The pair has been moving in a range of the current “Triangle” pattern. If the price gets a support at 1.3116, bulls will likely try to reach a resistance at 1.3289 shortly. However, bears are still in the game, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2849 – 1.2795.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price try to find a lodgement under the broken “Triangle”. At the same time, there’s a “Double Bottom” right after a support at 1.3063. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3238 – 1.3273. If we see a pullback from this area, another bearish movement will be on the table.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9741

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls have strong enemies
7/25/2016

USD/JPY failed to take out the upper border of the bearish channel for the second time in 2 weeks. The nearest support is at 105.62. If the bulls find strength to test resistance at 107.5, the risks of the pair moving north to 108.8 (target at 78.6% according to Gartley).

If USD/JPY manages to rise above the high, set during the Asian trading session on July 25 (106.75), it will activate the "Bat" pattern target at 88.6%). The move below support at 105.6 with the following recoil will create room for the formation of the widening wedge.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9739

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" calling an upward correction
7/25/2016

There’re an “Engulfing” and a “Hammer” at the last low, but both patterns have a quite weak confirmation. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at the middle of the last huge black candle. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, the two last “High Waves” haven’t been confirmed, so bears will probably move on until any reversal pattern arrives.

The price has been declining, but we’ve got a “Hammer” at the last low. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. However, if buyers be stopped by this line, bears will probably deliver a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9754