Fort Financial Services
Broker Representative
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
17.04.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.47. During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed the demand amid the moderately positive comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi about the European economy current state and amid the energy cost increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.
Both the UK and the US 10-year negative bond yields reduction with the oil quotations growth amid the US stocks reduction contributed to the bullish sentiment within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased.
The pair USD/JPY has finished the trades in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive trading day. The basic commodity assets quotations growth was supported only the US dollar and against this background, the pair dollar/yen had decreased by the end of the day.
The United States published the March building permits number – the data came out worse then forecasted medians – 926 000. We expected the data output better than the consensus-forecast 1,24 millions. The USA jobless claims number increased by 12 thousand. up to 294 thousand last week.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
According to the ECB meeting results the monetary regulator shows positive changes in the lending sector, but it still expects that inflation in the coming months to remain in the negative area.
We expect the demand for the euro amid the oil prices increase. However, the resistance level of 1.0790 can be a strong barrier for bulls.
The whole week the euro was actively strengthening against the US dollar and came close to the strong resistance level of 1.0790. Trading volumes are in the increased zone.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.
The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.1050.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. The oil quotations strong growth after the US stocks reduction cheered bulls to long. It is also worth noting the fact that there was the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a positive factor for the British pound.
The formed price increase was at the higher volumes and reached the resistance level of 1.4920, that was broken through.
The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The United States did not please traders with the building permits number very positive release which did not encouraged bulls to long. Yesterday we saw a global growth in the equity markets which indicates a strong demand for the risky assets. In this regard, the yen will once again be a funding currency for the carry trade deals and we can expect the Japanese yen decline. Now the pair is in the flat trading.
The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets is 117.50.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The US weak economic data triggered the US dollar weakening against the most of its competitors, including the Swiss franc.
The US Treasury Secretary Lew said that the US economy achieved sustainable growth. According to the Fed economic review "Beige Book" the activity growth was noted in the most regions.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
17.04.2015
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.47. During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed the demand amid the moderately positive comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi about the European economy current state and amid the energy cost increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.
Both the UK and the US 10-year negative bond yields reduction with the oil quotations growth amid the US stocks reduction contributed to the bullish sentiment within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased.
The pair USD/JPY has finished the trades in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive trading day. The basic commodity assets quotations growth was supported only the US dollar and against this background, the pair dollar/yen had decreased by the end of the day.
The United States published the March building permits number – the data came out worse then forecasted medians – 926 000. We expected the data output better than the consensus-forecast 1,24 millions. The USA jobless claims number increased by 12 thousand. up to 294 thousand last week.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
According to the ECB meeting results the monetary regulator shows positive changes in the lending sector, but it still expects that inflation in the coming months to remain in the negative area.
We expect the demand for the euro amid the oil prices increase. However, the resistance level of 1.0790 can be a strong barrier for bulls.
The whole week the euro was actively strengthening against the US dollar and came close to the strong resistance level of 1.0790. Trading volumes are in the increased zone.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.
The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.1050.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. The oil quotations strong growth after the US stocks reduction cheered bulls to long. It is also worth noting the fact that there was the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a positive factor for the British pound.
The formed price increase was at the higher volumes and reached the resistance level of 1.4920, that was broken through.
The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The United States did not please traders with the building permits number very positive release which did not encouraged bulls to long. Yesterday we saw a global growth in the equity markets which indicates a strong demand for the risky assets. In this regard, the yen will once again be a funding currency for the carry trade deals and we can expect the Japanese yen decline. Now the pair is in the flat trading.
The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets is 117.50.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The US weak economic data triggered the US dollar weakening against the most of its competitors, including the Swiss franc.
The US Treasury Secretary Lew said that the US economy achieved sustainable growth. According to the Fed economic review "Beige Book" the activity growth was noted in the most regions.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.