Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is correcting. The dollar ended the day at the level of 95.29. The April trade balance and industrial production positive German statistics helped the pair to grow.

There was a negative trend in the securities market - the British bonds yield are reduced against the German ones and the USA Treasuries. In the light of this, the pound/dollar lost some positions. However, in late trade, the GBP/USD has managed to grow.

The January - March Japanese GDP was revised to the positive side and led to the dollar/yen decrease. The national currency devaluation affects positively the Japanese economy. These numbers show the highest positive growth since February.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro / dollar has been showing a high volatility since the summer beginning which may be related to the liquidity drop in the summer months. We have seen quite contradictory movements in major currency pairs in the last 2 weeks. The weak UK trade balance may support the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in turn will allow the pair EUR/USD to test the level of 1.1450.

The Friday's dollar growth was offset by the strong euro growth. Buyers not only managed to get out of the descending channel, but also to break through two resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1450, 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expected the trade balance release would not be able to please the traders with strong data. The release showed -1.202B.

The pound revaluation against the euro together with the manufacturing sector weakness point to that the data will not be very delightful. The UK government bond yields declined to their counterparts from the US and Germany that might also put pressure on the "cable".

We did not get the downward trend continuation yesterday. The price corrected upwards to 1.5390 on the low volumes. The level of 1.5550 plays the role of the key resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5390 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5460, 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment changed to bearish, despite the Japan and the United States important macroeconomic statistics lack. There was the bond yields negative differential expansion in Japan and the US markets which is a positive factor for the dollar. At the same time the Japanese currency devaluation has a positive effect on the economy of Japan - the current account balance shows a high positive gain since February. However it did not allow the pair to continue the growth.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123/50 breakthrough down the way to the support 12240 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend yesterday still the day the EUR/USD finished with an increase. The pair GBP/USD had decreased in spite of the UK April positive trade balance. However the pair increased by the end of the day. The pair USD/JPY had grown upwards amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales which contributed to the carry trade transactions closing and the demand for the Japanese yen. Then the pair sharply fell.

The US dollar keeps strengthening – the Treasury two-years bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the Fed interest rates may show a growth above the level of 0.75%. The current profitability level is 0.71% and therefore it is quite difficult to count on the dollar bullish sentiment. The May US retail sales positive report can change the situation, we expect the report today.

The US Federal Reserve meeting will be held a week later there on June 16-17. However, some analytics believe that even at this meeting the US central bank will dare to start its monetary policy tightening. Still markets are hoping that the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen will give a hint at the end of the press conference when to wait for this event.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The May US retail sales report will be published today that may affect the pair's dynamics. The German 10-year bond yields rose up relative to their UK and US counterparts which is a positive factor for the euro.

At the same time the Greece and the German bond yields have been increasing for three consecutive trading days that point out to the investors' negative expectations. However, the oil market positive dynamics may contribute to the euro demand.

The level of 1.1260 testing was short-term. Buyers again took an initiative and corrected the price upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK national statistics office published the April manufacturing sector production report. The production fell by 0.4% m/m and grew by 0.2% y/y. The PMI manufacturing sector and the Industrialists Confederation industrial orders balance negative reports pointed out to the weak data output. And late in the evening the Bank of England governor Mr. Carney gave his speech.

There was the level of 1.5460 breakthrough. The price output from the channel was on the reduced volume, but it signals towards the bearish trend reversal. The resistance level of 1.5550 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5460 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the machinery and equipment orders release. The machinery and equipment orders rose up to + 3.0% y/y in April and rose up to + 3.8% m/m. It is industrial production leading indicator and it is closely watched by traders. However, most of the positive data had a negative impact on the yen and a positive effect on the Japanese stock market.

We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields increase on the bond market which is also a bullish factor for the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 122.40 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 121.60, further then towards 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German 10-years bond yields rapid growth. At the moment the German 10-year bond yields reached the mark of 1.02%. However, the pair fell by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had increased as well amid the April UK industrial production positive release and high oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair slightly fell at the end of the day.

The chief newsmaker has rightly become the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda who noted in his speech that the Japanese yen is oversold. Against this background, the pair USD/JPY had decreased. By the end of the day the pair showed a growth.

In May the US domestic market car sales increased by more than 1 million units. The Conference Board indicator of consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.1 p at the end of May in comparison with the previous month which also points to the strong data output. The initial jobless claims release came out at the level of 279 000 against forecasted 275 000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the US statistics. The May retail sales report will determine the US consumer activity on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 17 of June. Leading indicators point out to the positive data output. The May retail sales report showed a growth by 1.2%.

There was a false resistance level of 1.1260 breakthrough that is a good signal towards the downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1450, 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was in demand amid the "black gold" price growth. The Brent crude oil has consolidated above the mark of $ 66 barrel amid the US inventories decline which is a negative factor for the US dollar. It should also be noted that the British pound is supported by the pair EUR / GBP quotations decrease.

The UK 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a bearish factor for the pair.

Thanks to the two resistance levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460 breakthrough buyers have strengthened their position in this market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movment. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated amid the traders' escape from the US dollar and amid the Mr. Kuroda statements, concerning the oversold Japanese yen. Later, however, there was a demand for the dollar. The positive retail sales may contribute to the US two-years bond yields above 4-year maximum of 0.752% which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

After a decline more than 200 points the price recovered its position.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased amid the positive US statistics. Earlier the Swiss franc had strengthened its position. The dollar came under pressure after the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's comments. His words provoked the US dollar sales against the major currencies. Also, the frank grew up as a safe haven currency due to Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The foreign exchange market is still living in conditions of high volatility and fundamental unpredictability. The investors' attitude towards the US retail sales positive release was quite sluggish; the Treasury two-year bond yields have hardly exceeded the last week maximum level as soon as there was the rebound to the previous positions. The S & P agency has downgraded the Greece sovereign rating to CCC with a negative forecast. In the press release it was stated that the S & P agency assesses the very high default probability within the next 12 months. And at once the Greece stock market increased by 8% at the end of the day! The Greece and the Germany bond yields have declined that point out to the low risk. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the US retail sales positive data for May. Nevertheless, the euro showed a slight growth at the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had declined- the pair EUR/GBP quotations decline restrained the British pound sales. However the pair increased on Friday’s trades.

The US positive statistics with the upward trend in the US and the Japanese stock market supported demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a growth.

The June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came out at the level of 94.6. It was expected at the level of 91.4.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention is drawn to the April euro area industrial production report. The Old World leading economies manufacturing sector indicators showed mixed trends: Germany and Spain have reported about an increase while France reported about a decrease by 0.9%. The Markit Economics PMI is showing a moderately positive trend. The April PMI increased by 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y. The forecast was 0.4% m/m и 1.1% y/y.

After buyers failed to break through above the resistance level of 1.1260 (there was false breakthrough), the price declined downwards to the resistance level of 1.1150 where there is the sloping resistance line of 1.1260 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and from a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Great Britain did not please traders with the interesting report publication and in this connection we should pay attention to the US macroeconomic data. The leading indicator points out to the Michigan University PPI and Consumer Confidence positive data output which may contribute to the demand for the dollar. The US and the UK negative bond yields are increasing which is a bearish factor for the British pound. The June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data showed 94.6. The forecast was 91.4.

The pound upward trend remained stable. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.5550 upwards the price closed the trades above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last week there was a bullish sentiment in the world leading stock exchanges that indicate demand for the risky assets. In its turn, it is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. On the other hand, traders reacted quite sluggish to the May US retail sales positive statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing below the first target, the level 121.60 will become the next one.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The solid retail sales data supported the dollar against the franc. The US retail sales was + 1.2% against the expected + 1.2% in May. The initial jobless claims reached 279k against forecasted 277.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in the flat before Draghi's speech. Traders ignored the US positive macroeconomic statistics, still the "Greek factor" did not allow bulls to win during the day. However by the end of the trades the pair increased. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the EUR/GBP quotations decrease which supported the British pound. During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the flat as well amid the Japan and the US stock market sales.

Traders continue to believe that the next week the Federal Reserve may prepare the market to the interest rates growth in the short term. The Fed was in the spotlight after the US data that over the last few days have shown the economic growth signs which might serve as a basis to start the key rate raising.

The US producer price index rose up by 0.5% m/m in May, exceeding the growth forecasts by+ 0.4%. In April the index declined by 0.4%. The annualized rate fell by 1.1% in May against the decline by 0.8% in April. The basic price index rose up by 0.6% y/y that is below the growth forecast by 0.7%. Meanwhile, the core prices rose up by 0.1% m/m. The main index witnessed the maximum growth since 2012 while the benchmark index remains under pressure.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The United States has published the May industrial production statistics. The May manufacturing sector ISM indicator has increased by 1.3 p that allowed to count on the positive data output. In addition, there was the Greece and Germany significant bond yields which again may put pressure on the euro. It should also be noted that most of the investors will take a wait in anticipation of the Fed meeting.

The market was opened with a price gap. The gap was closed after the resistance level of 1.1260 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and from a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The debt market dynamics shows the British pound strong overvaluation. The UK bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts which is a bearish factor for the pair. The Germany and the UK bond yields points out to the EUR/GBP corrective movement development which may also put pressure on the GBP/USD.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar, having broken through on its way the resistance level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough will provide a good signal for the upward trend continuation in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan stock markets sales put pressure on the pair USD/JPY as investors closed their carry trade transactions and in this regard there is demand for the Japanese yen. The stock market decline will
contribute to the US Treasury bond yields which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing below the first target, the level 121.60 will become the next one.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the risk growth from the Greece part and the US industrial production negative statistics. By the end of the trades the pair fell.

There was a demand for a pound after the US weak industrial production release publication and the trading day the GBP/USD ended with the quotations growth.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the narrow flat. On the one hand, bears shorted amid the world stock markets sales. On the other hand, bulls built up long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation.

Greece continues to draw the markets' attention. The new week started with another negotiations failure with the Greece international creditors that increases concerns about the country possible exit from the EU. The Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis rejected the possibility of the Greek exit from the EU: the Euro group finance ministers shall meet on Thursday and analysts say it will be the last chance for Greece which will have to pay 1.6 billion euro ($ 1.80 billion) to IMF on 30 June. The current financial aid program also ends this day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics shows the lack of the euro demand. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields significant increase amid the lack of compromise between Athens and creditors increases the risks for the euro. On the other hand, the "black gold" decrease has a positive impact on the US dollar. These two factors are negative for the European currency. However, the US dollar will not be always in demand.

The pair euro/dollar has been correcting for the third consecutive week. Two previous levels of 1.1260 breakthrough were followed by the short-term prices rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and from a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK consumer price index rose up again by 0.2% in May on the month basis as the previous month. The value is in line with expectations. The labor market indicators point out to the consumer prices increase there was the unemployment decrease and average earnings increase in the beginning of spring. The Bank of England indicated that inflation would be negative in the short term.

From the technical point of view, the upward trend remains stable due to the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the flat within the range of 122.85 -123.80. On the one hand, the world leading stock markets sales put pressure on the pair USD/JPY as investors close their carry trade orders as a result there was a
demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However, in general, all traders are now hiding in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results announcement.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. After fixing below the first target, the level of 121.60 will become the next one.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the risks increase, concerning the "Greek problem" resolution. Athens is still not in a hurry to negotiate with the creditors which may put pressure on the euro. The Germany and the Greece negative bond yields have been decreasing for three trading days which points out to the risk increase. The traders’ attention was focused on the Fed economic forecast as well as on the FOMC chairman press conference. The Fed did not surprise the market and left the saved rate at 0.25%. By the end of the trades the pair increased.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the EUR/GBP decrease because of the "Greek factor", the Fed’s decision and the May UK inflation positive data. Yesterday the UK bond yields declined relative to the US and Germany counterparts which is a bearish factor for the pound.

The pair USD/JPY has been in the narrow flat for the third trading day- investors took a wait –and- see position in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results announcement. The Fed did not change the rate. Against this background, the trades ended with the price decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics and the US Federal Reserve two-day meeting results announcement will determine the euro/dollar trend. The Germany 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In this context, we may expect the low euro demand. Analysts had expected the Fed officials positive comments. The Fed did not change its monetary politic.

The resistance level of 1.1260 testing at the yesterday's trading session was followed by its breackthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders' attention is focused on the UK statistics. The United Kingdom is on the verge of deflation and therefore the average wage release will attract the traders' attention as salaries have a direct impact on the CPI. In its quarterly economic forecast the Bank of England pointed out to the low productivity which will hold back economic growth. In this context, we expected the average earnings data output less than forecasted medians. The data came out at the level of 2.7% (forecast 2.1%).

According to the technical analysis, buyers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 1.5950 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The last three trading days the pair has been in the narrow range of 123.30 -123.60. Given the fact that the Japanese yen showed less corrective gains than all of the major currencies against the dollar we conclude that there are strong USD buyers in this pair who keep the market and gain positions towards the upward trend. However the pair fell amid the Fed’s report publication.

The price has consolidated below the strong resistance level of 123.50 amid the low volumes. Then the pair broke though this level and tested the level of 124.30. The price rebounded downwards from this level and closed the trades below the level of 123.50.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 122.40, 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main event of the day was the US Federal two-day meeting results announcement. Most the world leading investment banks' economists expect the Federal Reserve positive forecasts still the FOMC representatives sent the dollar to the knockout. The key forecasts for GDP, unemployment and interest rates have been revised to the negative directions which together with uncertainty in relation to the federal funds rate first increase have had significant pressure on the US dollar.

In the light of this the pair EUR/USD has increased, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well, the pair USD/JPY has fallen.

There was the Euro group meeting where they discussed "the Greek debt" solutions. The Greece and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been increasing for four trading days in a row that pointed out to the low probability of a compromise. Even if the parties were able to reach a consensus - the negotiations would be very long.

The USA published a weekly initial jobless claims report. There was 267 thousand claims last week, While analysts had expected 276 thousand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Fed deprived the dollar bulls all the trumps. They level the unemployment and GDP evaluation for the period 2015-2017 years which was negatively perceived by traders. The only thing that was left unchanged was the inflation forecast, but it is not clearly enough yet. The main event of the day was the US inflation data release. The data showed 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. And we cannot ignore the situation around Greece.

Buyers have reached the strong resistance level of 1.1450 the third time for three weeks. They have reached the level amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the May UK retail sales data. We mark the average earnings growth acceleration at the end of March and April which indicates the consumer spending increase. In this context, we expect the data output bit better than the forecasted medians. The data shed a growth by 0.2% m/m и 4.6% y/y

In view of the US Federal Reserve negative economic forecasts - the pair may reach the psychological level of 1.5950 in the short term.

At the session the British pound session significantly strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the two strong resistance levels: 1.5670, 1.5775. The levels breakthrough was amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5950, 1.6080.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the Fed statistics publication the Japanese yen has strengthened less against the dollar among the majors. In the short term we may expect the quotations decrease as the US Federal Reserve chairman J. Yellen pointed out that they have to see "more convincing evidence" of sustained moderate economic growth to start the interest rates raising.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40, 121.60 and 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown rapidly against the dollar but then it fell again. The franc growth catalyst was the FOMC meeting results and the regulator head comments.

So, the Fed kept the base rate level forecast at the end of the year while lowering it for the next year. Until the end of 2015 they expect the interest rates increase to 0.625% which implies the twice increase by 25 bp. In the short term the rate is expected to reach 1.625% which is below the March forecast of 1.875%. In accordance with the FOMC statements the interest rate remains within the range of 0.25% to 0.50%.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the pair EUR/USD strengthened amid the May US inflation moderately negative data. The final indicator is higher by 0.1% that is worse than traders had expected that increased pressure on the dollar. However the euro showed a decreased on the Friday’s trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the May UK positive retail sales increased by 0.2% which is a positive factor for the British economy. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the profit taking on the carry trade transactions in the morning.

The situation with Greece continues to deteriorate investors' sentiment. If Athens is not able to negotiate with creditors, Greece will lose the new financial assistance tranche that is necessary for the debts repayment to the IMF in the amount of 1.6 billion euros ($ 1.82 billion).

The Euro group finance ministers meet in Luxembourg while Greece is on the agenda. However, the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that he would reject any offers that would force him to go to the "catastrophic" measures. It aggravates the prospects of signing the agreement. Speaking in the German parliament, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the agreement with Greece was still possible.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The May US inflation came out in the zero area while the market had expected the index of + 0.1%. In this regard, we get another negative factor for the US dollar. It is also necessary to note the payments balance report- the deficit has been over 100 billion dollars for two calendar quarter which is a direct consequence of the US dollar revaluation.

The European regulator has increased by 1 billion euro the amount that the Greece Bank to borrow under the emergency lending program.

Buyers failed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is still strong. Last week the UK traders were pleased with the average earnings and retail sales positive data while the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors with their negative economic forecasts. It is also necessary to note the UK and the US inflation trend. In April the spread was 1% (1.8% in the US and 0.8% in the UK).

The level of 1.5775 breakthrough led to the upward correction formation, aimed at the strong resistance level of 1.5950.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.5775 further on we expect a growth to 1.5950 and 1.6080.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy meeting results. The national currency devaluation is beginning to give its fruits- it was observed in recent reports the exports, industrial production and the payments balance positive trend. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged and pledged to increase the monetary base of $ 80 trillion yens per year. In this regard quotations decreased to 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair USD/CHF fell at the end of trades on Friday. The dollar consolidated its positions. The support for the US dollar came from the strong statistics which showed that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia business optimism index rose up to 15.2 pp vs. 8.0 pp in June and 6.7 pp in May.

In addition, the SNB President Jordan said yesterday that "it is risky to have long positions within the franc".

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD lost some ground expecting the EU emergency summit regarding the Greece situation, as well as the German bonds yield reducing to their counterparts from the US and the UK.

The GBP/USD fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pound slightly strengthened after the negative differential government bonds yields reduction in the UK and the US.

The USD/JPY lost the bearish sentiment background on the world's leading stock markets which caused the transactions carry trade closure. However the dollar strengthened and the pair increased.

Despite the relative stability which came from the dollar weakening rather than the euro increasing, the situation with Greece continues to worsen European investors’ mood. There was not adopted any Greek decision after the EU finance ministers meeting last Thursday which increases the default risks and the country's exit from the EU. Donald Tusk called an emergency meeting on Monday to decide the Greece fate. We expect the final agreement between Greece and creditors till the end of the week

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The week trading day was rich with important macroeconomic statistics. Still we highlight the May secondary market housing sales release in the USA. The 30-year mortgage growth rates at the end of May to the level of 4% contributed to a significant decrease in loans issued, indicating that the low volume of housing sales.

DO not forget about the Eurogroup meeting. The eurozone countries heads, including the ECB President Mario Draghi and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, met to discuss the current agreement with Greece with the European Financial Stability Mechanism. The officials show optimism pointed that a lot of work is ahead.

Buyers, updating the last week maximum, remain to dominate in the euro / dollar market . The pair is trading above the support level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1260. Then a consolidation can be formed.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

With the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we expect a moderate downward trend with long positions profit taking. There has been a strong quotations growth two trading weeks in a row - the British currency grew by 3.8%, and in this regard, some investors could like to close some deals.

The second time buyers rose the price to the resistance level of 1.5950. The first approach to this level happened amid the increased volumes without breaking it up. The second approach to the 1.5950 occurs at a reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.8880 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan H. Kuroda moderately positive comments may support the Japanese currency in the short term, as the US currency remained without drivers for growth after the US Federal Reserve meeting.

The upward trend of the pair halted in strong resistance level of 123.50. The resistance level at 123.50 test was on the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 124.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD lost some ground after the long positions profit taking. The final decision on Greece has not adopted yet and traders are in no hurry to long.

The GBP/USD fell as well amid the UK government bonds yields falling in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pair USD/JPY grew which caused the carry trade transactions opening.

They reported that the Greece government has submitted new proposals that include significant concessions related to the deficit reduction and pension reform. That news supported the euro as prompted the market to believe that the negotiations with the Athens creditors can get the ball rolling and finish with positive solutions. There were also reports on the euro side that the European Central Bank increased the emergency funding amount to the Greece banks. However, the warnings from the euro area members that the immediate breakthrough in the negotiation is unlikely to happen soon changed the investors' sentiment.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview
The final decision on "Greek debt" has not been accepted, however, everybody hopes that a positive decision will be made in the second half of the week as Athens has proposed a new plan to reduce costs.

Markit Economics published the business activity indices in the France and Germany manufacturing sectors.

Buyers have not been able to break through and stay above the strong resistance level of 1.1450. The approach to the resistance level of 1.1450 was followed by a rebound and a pulse break of the support level 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The yield on UK 10-year government bonds decreased toward their taxes in the US and Germany, which is a negative factor for the British currency. It is worth mentioning the UK and Germany bonds yields decrease which helps the cross-rate EUR/GBP to grow that in its turn puts pressure on the pound.

The strong support of 1.5775 break down happened on low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders positively reacted to the possible agreement between Greece and the creditors. This factor may increase the number of carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Traders expect the positive May USA durable goods which could support the demand for the dollar.

There was formed the two-day correction from the strong support level of 122.40. The correction target is the mark 123.50 that has been worked out.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

There has been an increased demand for the American currency - the dollar index basket USDX finished the trading day at around 95.61.

The EUR/USD is in the "red zone" the third day in a row. Traders ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, showing the lack of interest to the euro. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The GBP/USD lost some ground against the UK and the US government bonds negative differential expansion.

The USD/JPY ended the day in the "green zone". The new wave of carry trade deals against the demand for risky assets continued to put pressure on the Japanese yen.

There was a faint hope that Greece found a common language with creditors in respect of the country's next financial aid terms. After the Greek Government showed new proposals at the weekend new investors hoped that Greece did sign an agreement with the international lenders. The sources from the EU reported that Greece's new proposal is ambitious, still they need to solve the pensions and VAT issues. As we know Greece could not come to an agreement with creditors. So the optimism that was in the week beginning – vanished.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro ignored positive news background which indicates the strong sellers presence. The Markit Economics published the Germany production and non-production sphere PMI report. The releases were expected with a positive data, however the data showed a decrease in these sphere. Traders expected the moderately positive data from the institute IFO. The United States published the final Q1 GDP data. It reduced to 0.2%.

The level of 1.1290 breakthrough was accompanied by an active euro fall against the US dollar. The price has fallen more than 200 points and broke through all the closest supports.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1260, 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There was a bearish sentiment predominance on the debt market negative dynamics in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany that will put pressure on the British currency. The third US GDP assessment impacts on the pair's strengthening. The data showed a decrease to 0.2%.

The British pound upward trend turned down after the strong support level of 1.5810. The breakthrough occurred on the lower volumes. Currently, there is a short-term upward correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bulls dominate. There was the price growth two consecutive days at the world's leading stock exchanges which indicates the investors' risk appetite presence. There has been the Japan and the US government bond yields negative differential expansion since the beginning of the week that is a bullish factor for the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was trading in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Traders took a pause after euro strong sales in spite of the debt market negative trend.

The GBP/USD lost its ground after the negative government bonds yields expansion in the UK and the US. However the pair slightly increased at the end of the day.

The USD/JPY has set a new 5-day high of 124.38, after which traders decided to take some profits on long positions as a result the market made a technical correction to 123.50.

Rumors that Greece may again return to the EU leaving discussion led to a renewed euro decrease. In addition, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras confirmed that the creditors rejected the list of proposals recently submitted by Athens.

The number of the USA unemployed who applied for unemployment compensation came to 271 000 with 273 000 forecasted. The previous record was 267 000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone will not please market participants with interesting macroeconomic statistics. The USA and Germany 10-year government bonds yields negative differential again expanded and already reached the maximum level over the past 3 weeks.

The United States published the initial jobless claims report. The data showed a growth from 267 000 up to 271 000. The forecast was 273 000.

The downward trend turned to a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Three trading days has shown the pound's weakness, the current levels look attractive for the medium-term investors who are counting on the upward trend continuation. However, the debt market dynamics shows a mixed background - the British 10-year Treasury bonds profitability has been lowering against the US Treasuries and is growing to German bonds.

The Pound continued its downward correction relative to the US dollar. After three days of a corrective decline the pair broke the strong support level of 1.5775 and tested the level of 1.5670. Then the pair slightly corrected upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a predominance of bearish sentiment and long positions profit taking in the US and the Japanese stock market. Investors closed their carry trade transactions which creates a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

In this connection, we expect the price lowering. Still the bulls can take the initiative in their hands against the background of positive dynamics in the debt market. The level of 123.50 breakthrough served as a downward reversal correction signal.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40 and 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The sentiment against the "greenback" were supported with hope that Greece will solve all debt issues. The fact that the Greeks once again failed to reach agreement with the creditors supported the dollar. The latest US Q1 GDP estimate supported the dollar as well.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading was quite enough last week. The EUR/USD was mostly in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Investors are waiting how the Greece situation will be solved and in no hurry to open new positions. By the end of the trades the support level of 1.1150 was tested and the pair decreased.

The GBP/USD decreased after of the cross-rate EUR/GBP falling which supported the demand for the British currency. However, in general, the pound is consolidating.

The USD/JPY has lost ground amid the US and Japanese market shares downward trend. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased amid the US economic data

Meanwhile, market sentiment remained under pressure as talks between Greece and its creditors broke down again on Thursday. Greece has critical little time to find money before the impending deadline (30 June), we remind you that Greece has to pay loans in the amount of 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary fond. If Greece misses the payment, it may declare a default which could cause its going out from the euro zone.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We just highlight the money supply changes report among the published macroeconomic releases. The ECB QE is in full swing, we expect money supply aggregate M3 increase . Still not an inflation problem is on agenda but Greek with its default menace. Decision on "Greek debt" is still pending, some analyst say that the parties may agree as early as this week.

The downward trend stopped at the support level of 1.1150 and got into a three-day consolidation. The current price is trading at levels ranged 1.1260 - 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150, 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Current levels are attractive for medium traders who believe in the upward trend continuation, however, the debt market does not show any sign of this, the signal to long is weak.

Sellers failed to break below the strong support level of 1.5670. The reverse return to has led to a growth to the level of 1.5775 with a consolidation below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan published a unit of important macroeconomic statistics where we highlight the inflation and the household expenditure. Growing the 10-year Japanese government bonds yields, combined with a reduction in unemployment and moderate wage growth pointed to the yield data within or slightly better than the median forecasts.

The correction movement came close to the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 124.30. After breaking 124.30 the buyers may go to 125.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

A driver is still the talks on Greece, where the parties can not reach an agreement. The new proposals are not accepted by the Athens' creditors, the parts keeps to search for a consensus. In these circumstances investors do not rush to trade and actually ignore the economic data.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Greek crisis provoked a sharp euro decline on Monday, during the Asian session.

The German investors expect the euro and European bonds to experience a significant pressure. They believe that the market preference will be given to safe-haven assets such as the Germany government bonds, as well as the gold.

Last week, the EUR/USD has grown a bit after the positive US consumer confidence release from the Michigan University. On Monday, the pair fell in the light of Greek news. The euro fell yesterday in the first part of the day amid the Greek issue still the tool was able to recover, thanks to the Swiss regulator interventions.

The GBP/USD finished trades in the negative area, still the cross-rate EUR/GBP decrease did not allow the British pound to weaken significantly. The gap was closed by the end of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY showed growth on the demand for risky assets. "Bulls" are returning in the hope of a Greece positive decision. However the pair decreased on the yesterday’s trades.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The situation around Greece tense to the limit. Last Saturday the Greece Prime Minister Tsipras met with the international creditors, the meeting was unsuccessful, no agreement was reached out. Now all the attention is on 5th of July, when Greece shall hold a popular referendum on the country's withdrawal from the debt crisis.

Most of the previous week, the price stayed above the support level of 1.1150. All attempts to break below were accompanied by a short-term rebound. The new week has allowed sellers to break below the strong support level of 1.1150 using the price gap (the gap). The support level of 1.1050 was also broken. The SNB intervention supported the euro. The pair managed to recover the loss and returned to 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers closed the gap. We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There has not been published anything interesting from the United Kingdom and the United States macroeconomic statistics and therefore we should pay attention to the debt market dynamics. The bond market is in the flat - the 10-year UK government bonds yield slightly fluctuated to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pound is unlike the euro opened at the previous week closing price. Then it was a gap but not as strong as in the pair EUR/USD. This trade is above the strong support level of 1.5670, which has been constrained sellers four days.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the May retail sales and industrial production releases. The increase in household spending amid rising employment and wages allows us to hope that we will get to a positive retail sector sales report.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 122.40 soon. The way to the mark of 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

A. Merkel said that the debate about Greece are to hold in the Bundestag on Wednesday. The Greek 10-year government bonds yield reached a level of 15%, pointing to the high economic risks that is a negative factor for the euro. On Monday, the EUR/USD began trading with a gap in the area of 1.1009, then it showed a growth above the 12 figure amid rumors of a possible agreement between Athens and the creditors. The growth was permanent and the pair fell by the end of Tuesday.

The GBP / USD fell amid the cross-rate EUR/GBP growth. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The pair USD/JPY closed the day in the "red zone". Traders ran from risky assets to the "safe yen."

The United States can please us with positive macroeconomic statistics. Last Friday, the Michigan University reported about the consumer confidence maximum level over the past 5 months. Еhe positive trend was confirmed by the Conference Board (the data showed a growth from 94.6 to 101.4) - we noted demand for the US dollar.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is more than closed the Monday gap, however, a further upward trend is not so obvious as it seems. The inflation Weak data in Germany can not be expected to yield the eurozone CPI positive data. The "Greek debt" issue has not completely resolved yet and there is also a possibility of negative surprises. Athens will not be able to repay the debt of 1.55 billion, still traders agree that the IMF and the international rating agencies will not consider this step as a default. The consumer price index grew during the first summer month increased by 0.2% per annum.

The price closed the price gap of more than 200 points. The buyers did not stop raising rates even higher by 100 points. There was the resistance 1.1150 breakthrough and the level of 1.1260 testing on the increased volume. Then it were a rebound to the 1.1150 and its breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Statistics National Office has published the UK balance of payments and the first quarter GDP. The negative "black gold" trend did not support bullish sentiment in the pair GBP/USD. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The downward correction from 1.5925 stalled at the strong support level of 1.5690.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.5670, 1.5550. The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated at the market. Instability around Greece have a negative impact on the global stock markets, which favored to the carry trade deals closing and lead to a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. There were two sectors outsiders in the US stock market: the financial and high-tech ones which indicates a very low "risk appetite".

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 121.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 120.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sent to Greece the details of a new agreement with creditors. According to Juncker, if the Greeks rejects the proposal in the referendum, it will mean that they will vote for the eurozone exit. The ECB, Benoit Ker said that Greece's exit from the Eurozone can not be excluded now.

The EUR/USD decreased after the June positive US consumer confidence release. The Conference Board index came to the level of 101.4, indicating increased consumer activity.

The pair GBP/USD finished trading in the "red zone". The British currency was under pressure due to lower government bonds yields.

The USD/JPY fell against the demand for safe assets due to the situation around Greece. However the pair increased by the end of the day.

We shall pay attention to the United States statistics: the ADP US employment and business activity in the manufacturing sector. In the first two months of the second quarter, the US economy is steadily creating more than 200 thousand new jobs, indicating that the output data will be within the median forecasts. During June, the jobs number in the private sector amounted to 237 thousand. The forecast was 220 thousands. The business production activity showed 53.5 when the forecast was 53.2.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The eurozone inflation release has not caused a strong reaction at the market. The CPI dropped to the level of 0.2% year on year, which coincided with the investors' expectations. The government bonds yields differential in Greece and Germany expands, indicating a high risk of "Greek issue". As it became known Greece declared default.

After a sharp jerk up 300 points the price is slowly correcting downwards. The corrective weakness allowed sellers to break and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925. The buyers need to break above 1.1150 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1260, 1.1450 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should pay attention to the Markit Economics PMI index in the production sphere: the index fell to 51.4 from 51.9 in June. You should also pay attention to the US ADP employment statistics and the business activity in the manufacturing sector. The data showed 237 000 and 53.5. The data came out slightly better then forecasted medians.

After the sixth day of the downward correction the pair is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5670. Then the broke this level down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen show and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460 and 1.5390

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan released the Tankan economic survey which is traditionally closely monitored both by economists and market traders. According to Tankan surveys during the second quarter - the index for large manufacturers 15 (12 expected), previously 12, this is the first index increase for the first three quarters, the value has been the highest since March 2014. The uncertainty around Greece continues to provide negative impact on risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD fell after the US positive business climate report in the manufacturing sector. The index has risen to its highest level in the past five months, indicating to the USA economic growth acceleration. The pair slightly increased by the end of the day.

The GBP/USD ends two trading days in a row at "minor note." The British currency came under a wave of sales after the negative UK manufacturing sector PMI publication. The long-term interest rates growth has a negative impact on the mortgage market. The mortgage loans approved applications number decreased in May by 3.1 thousand, while the mortgage is the main growth driver in the construction sector.

The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand. However the pair decreased amid the dollar weakness.

The dollar consolidated when investor strengthened in the opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. The ADP National Employment Report showed that the June new jobs number in the US private sector was 237,000 vs. the forecast - 218,000.

We got the ambiguous statistics from the USA: on the one hand the unemployment fell from 5.5 to 5.3%. The initial jobless claims number rose by 10,000, reaching 281,000. The NFP amounted 223,000, the previous index was above 250,000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Every day we get a lot of conflicting information about the situation with the "Greek debt." Every day the market is got excited by various rumors, still Greece held a popular referendum on July 5 and parties again sit down at the negotiating table on 6 July. Until that time, we should not pay attention to the publication.

Besides the Greek debt issue another worth mentioning this week event was the June USA NFP. The NFP showed 223K, with previous 250K. The unemployment fell from 5.5% to 5.3. The Initial Jobless Claims is 281000 versus previous 271000. This Friday the US markets are closed amid the Independence Day.

The euro has been down against the US dollar after a sharp pulse up to 300 points аor three days. The price decrease occurs at low volumes and is aimed to break the level of 1.1050. But the price rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Further on we expect the fall towards 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing sphere fell to the lowest level since May 2014, which calls into question the high economic growth. Moreover, the spread indicators UK/US widened in favor of the latter by the end of June, indicating that a high USA economic growth will provide support to the US currency.

Sellers reduced the price down amid the low volumes. There is consolidation between the support level of 1.5550 and the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5550, 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen has ignored the positive Tankan economic survey which indicates at the strong buyers presence in the market. The manufacturing sector business climate report from the ISM points to the USA economic growth acceleration that will contribute to the rumors re-emergence about the Fed rate hike in September.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell rapidly against the dollar this level. The dollar consolidated when traders believed in fact that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. However the franc strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9725.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market was relatively quiet at the end of last week - the major pairs were traded in narrow ranges, despite the US labor market publication which traditionally caused the volatility surge. The labor market report as a whole is positive - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the Non-Farm figure was 223 thousand. It is slightly worse than the median forecast, still the report is above 200 thousand. The average earnings index disappointed traders with the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will restrain the inflation growth.

Investors continue to monitor the situation with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed a compromise to extent the financial assistance program. Meanwhile, Tsipras continued to call on the citizens to vote against the proposed measures by creditors.

The EUR/USD increased and the pair GBP/USD fell at the end of the week. The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US labor market release as a whole can be considered positive. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the lowest level since May 2008. In the private sector created more than 200 thousand. new jobs during the second quarter, indicating a strong economic growth.

The May retail sales index in the euro zone increased by 0.2%. The forecasted growth was 0.1%.

The most important euro/dollar event is new negotiations between Athens and the creditors are held on July 6, immediately after the national referendum.

The support level of 1.1050 stopped the euro decrease in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. After this level breakthrough down the way to the supports 1.0925, 1.0790 will be opened.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the service sector business climate publication. This indicator is one of the leading ones. The index rose to 58.5 from 56.5. The bond market dynamics indicates the bearish sentiment predominance - the British bonds yields decrease relative to the US in Germany bonds.

The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

If traders are positive to the US dollar - we expect the demand for the dollar. However, the 2-year Treasury bonds decline after weak June average earnings indicates the expectations decrease about imminent monetary policy tightening by the Fed and this factor is negative for the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

When the market has received a signal from the European authorities that they will continue any negotiations with Greece only after the referendum, investors have focused entirely on the fundamental news.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were in the narrow ranges. Monday the pair EUR/USD opened with a gap downwards, but it had increased. However, it lost its positions by the end of the day. We have received the May euro zone sales positive data. The index rose by 0.2% that indicates the consumer spending growth and a positive factor for the economy.

The euro was declining the whole day in response to the Greece referendum results which further increases the full-scale default likelihood in the country and its exit from the euro zone. Greeks convincingly voted "no" to the EU creditors' offer and with only 38.69% of the Greeks having supported the bailout offer.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK bond yields reduction because of the oil market sales. Nevertheless the pound grew by the end of the day

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the bearish sentiment on the global equity markets. Investors closed their positions after the Greece referendum.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On Monday the trades were opened with a gap. We saw the increased volatility during the day. Greece was the main newsmaker yesterday. Athens and the creditors returned to the negotiating table and that
event has defined the euro/dollar dynamics in the short term. Now it can be concluded that the parties will reach a compromise.

The two-week downward trend encountered the resistance at the level of 1.1050. The short-term trend line testing and breakthrough was amid the low volumes and was followed by the rebound upwards. The gap (the price gap) gives an additional signal towards the prices growth. The gap as covered.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market was opened with a gap amid the Greece national referendum results, but the gap size was smaller than in the pair EUR/USD. The UK service sector business activity release came out positive on Friday, but if we look at the quarter dynamics, there we can see a smooth slowdown. In this regard, the Bank of England forecasts about the high economic growth in the second quarter can be called into question.

The British pound has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The pair slightly corrected by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5550 and 1.5460 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of the trades was determined by the global stock markets sentiments. In case of the "Greek debt" positive decision - the stock markets will show an upward trend and the pair dollar/yen will enjoy a steady demand amid the carry trade transactions opening. Otherwise, we expect the sales waves amid the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.