Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[RF roboforex]

The Fed is starting to print money. Overview for 14.10.2019​

EURUSD is trying to rise early in the week; market players are keeping a wary eye on the Fed.

The major currency pair remains “in the black” and intends to continue its growth while investors are very cautious about the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1033.

If one decides to explain in simple terms what is happening in the US monetary policy, saying that the US Federal Reserve is turning its money printing press on and starting to bankroll the market would suffice. However, if digging into the matter, it goes like this: last Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released papers, according to which the US regulator would start buying treasury bonds in the amount of 60 billion USD per month. The process is expected to last at least until the end of the second quarter 2020, this means that the QE, and that’s QE for sure no matter which way you look at it, will cost at least 510 billion USD.

The Fed itself strongly disagrees on the term “QE” here, because it would mean that the regulator caved in to the White House and loosed its monetary policy for the long haul. The liquidity in the amount of 60 billion USD will be directly emitted to the market and might as well weaken the American currency. For the record – US President Donald Trump won’t like it a lot.

Why doing this? At least, to help the American economy handle trade wars, which are now put on hold, but may revive any moment.

The Fed said on several occasions that these money infusions are just technical, but the history shows otherwise. Of course, the USD doesn’t like these circumstances as well.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Pound keeps its hopes to rise. Overview for 15.10.2019​

After a short pause, GBPUSD is back to growing; market players believe in the Brexit.

The British Pound is rising against the USD again after a two-day pause. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2661.

London and the European Union are coming to a head of the Brexit negotiations: the parties are running short of time for making a deal, but seem very determined to do it until the end of the month. This Thursday, October 17th, the EU is set to start its two-day summit and if there is no news relating to the Brexit by October 19th, the British Prime Minister is obliged by the law to ask for renewal of negotiations and extension of the deadline. However, this contradicts what Boris Johnson was saying during his ascendancy to the Prime Minister position.

Right now, the United Kingdom really needs no pauses in this process. If the deal with the European Union is signed this week, Johnson will require some time to rush all documents through the British parliament.

Later in the evening, the UK is scheduled to report on the labor market. For example, one should pay attention to the Average Earnings Index, which may add 4.0% 3m/y. Another report to be released is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% and that’s quite good. And the final indicator, the Claimant Count Change, may show 21.3K in September after being 28.2K in the previous month.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Pound is waiting for the Brexit news. Overview for 16.10.2019​

GBPUSD is trading close to May’s highs; investors’ attention is focused on the Brexit deal draft.

The British Pound moved a bit away from yesterday’s highs, but may yet continue rising. The current quote for GBPUSD is 1.2756.

Last night, the Pound was pretty popular in the view of talks about the Brexit deal draft prepared by the United Kingdom and the European Union. They said that the draft might appear in the media on Wednesday morning, but there hasn’t been any news about it so far.

Meanwhile, the talks continue. On Thursday, the EU is set to have the Brexit summit and some of the documents had to be ready at the opening.

It seems like the Pound will remain volatile in the next 24 hours, so investors may try to benefit from everything that is relating to the Brexit procedure.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% in August to 3.9% in September. The Claimant Count Change was 21.1K, bringing the total amount to 1.31M. The Average Earnings Index added 3.8% 3m/y against the expected reading of +4.0% 3m/y.

Overall, the British labor market is estimated as stable and neutral, and the August decline might have been temporary. In this light, it will be interesting to check on September numbers.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Australian Dollar rose on statistics. Overview for 17.10.2019​

AUDUSD is trading upwards thanks to strong numbers on the Australian labor market.

The Australian Dollar is growing pretty well against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6775.

According to the statistics published today, the Unemployment Rate went from 5.3% in August to 5.2% in September, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change was 14.7K in September and the previous reading was revised from 34.7K to 37.9K.

This is good news that supported the Aussie. The situation on the Australian labor market didn’t worry investors before, but one more signal that the sector is okay is surely positive.

However, investors barely noticed another report, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence, which was -2 points in the third quarter after being 5 points the quarter before. Moreover, the second quarter reading was revised downwards, which is also not good. The indicator being below 0 shows the deterioration of market conditions. There is a direct correlation here between Australia’s domestic economy and its foreign contacts, China first of all, whose economy is slowing down.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro is trading at 6 weeks highs. Overview for 18.10.2019​

The major currency pair continues rising influenced by Brexit positive.

EURUSD intends to continue its growth on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1124.

The major currency pair is feeling fine while being supported by the news that the United Kingdom and the European Union agreed on the Brexit deal. The Euro did feel nervous while policymakers were trying to reach consensus, so now it is regaining its positions.

Yesterday, the USA published a lot of numbers. First of all, the weekly Unemployment Claims report, which showed 214K against 201K last week. It’s not critical.

The Housing Starts declined in September and was only 1.26M after being 1.39M in August and against the expected reading of 1.32M. The same for the Building Permits: 1.39M in September against 1.43M the month before.

The Capacity Utilization Rate dropped from 77.9% to 77.5%. The indicator really was anticipated to fall, but the final reading was worse than expected. The Industrial Production lost 0.4% m/m in September after adding 0.8% m/m in the previous month. In the case of this indicator, some decline was also expected, but no one thought it would be so serious. However, this bad news has a quite conceivable reason: there were strikes at General Motors, which had a significant influence on the volume of car output and spare parts. The future outlook for the company still remains uncertain in the light of the global demand decline. In addition to that, the entire sector is looking rather weak due to trade wars between the USA and China.

In the future, the indicators may return into a positive area after trade agreements are signed or arranged at least, but it will take the manufacturing sector some time to recover and feel itself better.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Pound doesn’t believe in possible Brexit complications. Overview for 21.10.2019​

GBPUSD stopped rising; investors are waiting for the news from the British policymakers.

The British Pound slowed down its growth against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2900.

Last week, the European Union and the United Kingdom agreed on the deal that might help to carry out the exiting procedure according to a “soft” scenario, which implied minimum damage to the British economy. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to persuade the European policymakers to consider the aspects that were the most important to the Brits. Everything was good, but no one could predict what would happen later.

During its emergency meeting last Saturday, the British Parliament declined the deal, which means that policymakers might go back to discussing it today-tomorrow, but Johnson is highly likely to be forced to ask the European Union for another delay, this time until January. We remind you that the Brexit was set for October 31st, but the deal is there yet.

It appears that Johnson tripped over the same stone the former Prime Minister Theresa May did. Earlier, he deployed a lot of efforts to bar the Parliament from making such decisions, because he thought that policymakers might cause a lot of troubles. So they did.
Right now, market players aren’t ready yet to believe that the Brexit may fail again, but the activity in GBPUSD is already lower than earlier – investors are waiting for the news.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro is saving strengths. Overview for 22.10.2019​

On Tuesday morning, the major currency pair is waiting for the Brexit news and saving strengths in anticipation of the ECB meeting.
EURUSD is consolidating without any particular direction on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1155.

So far, there is no news relating to the Brexit as the Parliament Brexit Vote is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. That’s why the best thing for investors to do is saving strengths.

This Thursday, October 24th, the European Central Bank is set to have another meeting. There are two key points here. The first one is that this will be the last meeting of the regulator in 2019. The second one – it will be the last meeting Mario Draghi acts as the ECB Governor. On November 1st, 2019, Christine Lagarde will take the office and become the first woman in the position of ECB President. It is her, who will assess the results of the QE announced earlier and expand the list of stimulus tools. Sooner or later, she will have to do this, there are no doubts about it.

The tools the ECB has aren’t very numerous. It might well be that the regulator will have to slowly decrease the interest rate, but let's not run ahead.

it is obvious that the last ECB meeting “hosted” by Mario Draghi may pass without any disturbances, although one should admit that the European economy has significantly deteriorated since the previous meeting. Market players are waiting for an assessment of existing problems, at least, and that may weaken the Euro.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

They are selling the Pound on Wednesday. Overview for 23.10.2019​

GBPUSD is moving downwards after House of Commons of the United Kingdom approved the Brexit deal.

The British Pound is falling against the USD on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2860.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has finally succeeded in persuading the Parliament to approve Brexit deal her earlier made with the European Union. It took two ballots, the first one last Saturday, which failed, and the second one this Tuesday, which finally succeeded: 329 votes for and 299 votes against.

However, this approval doesn’t guarantee that the same House of Commons will have no problems in quickly ratifying the deal. However, it’s a very important step for Johnson, because he managed to pass at least the first obstacle of his way.

Right now, no one can be sure that the Brexit will really start on October 31st as was scheduled before. The ratification itself may be a serious problem. Johnson said that the EU wouldn’t likely agree to postpone the deadline one more time, that’s why he was trying to force the process, even if the British policymakers failed to ratify the exiting procedure and refused to implement it on the legislative level.

It is currently known that the United Kingdom asked the EU to approve rescheduling the Brexit date from October 31st, 2019 to January 31st, 2020. However, there hasn’t been any news from the European policymakers yet.

Everything that is happening right now is not good for the Pound. Yes, the procedure is underway, but it is too slow to be very productive.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro is keeping balance. Overview for 24.10.2019​

On Thursday, EURUSD remains stable; it is still waiting for the news.

The major currency pair is quite inactive on Thursday morning – there will be a busy day ahead. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1135.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the Consumer Confidence in the Euro Area deteriorated and was -8 points in October after being -7 points in the previous month. It’s not good news for the European currency, but not surprising at the same time.

There will be a lot of October numbers from Europe today, such as the Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Germany, France, and the Euro Area itself. All reports are preliminary and barely expected to have any influence on the major currency pair. However, they may provide insight into what is currently happening in the region.

In the afternoon, the European Central Bank is scheduled to have another meeting. Everything has already been said, but the regulator’s comments might be interesting.

Later in the afternoon, market players should pay attention to the September Durable Goods Orders report from the USA, which is expected to show -0.5% m/m after adding 0.2% m/m the month before. The indicator is extremely volatile and changes all the time, that’s why one should carefully read the components of the report even if the numbers are weak.

Apart from this, the USA is going to report on the New Home Sales in September, which may drop from 713K to 710K. This decline is not critical and can be easily explained by the current imperfect situation on the real estate market.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro is trying to regain positions. Overview for 25.10.2019​

EURUSD fell after the ECB meeting. Right now, it is trying to recover.

The major currency pair is correcting at the end of the trading week after an unsuccessful Thursday. The current quote for the instream is 1.1119.

During the meeting that took place yesterday, the European Central Bank left all key interest rates unchanged: the benchmark rate at 0%, the deposit facility rate at -0.5%. A negative rate is one of the tools the ECB has to influence its monetary policy, which means that banks have to pay the regulator for keeping their money, but not vice versa. As a result, the ECB motivates banks to invest money in real sectors or businesses, but not very successfully so far.

In the comments, the ECB said that businesses paid attention to the increase of pressure on the value of labor power. It means that conditions on the labor market are getting more complicated and a weak impulse from this sector may slow down the inflating in the future.

According to the regulator, the stimulus programs launched in September will provide the Area’s economy with monetary incentives. Later, it may support households and small companies.

The ECB intends to continue its loose monetary policy for a long time. they said it was necessary for keeping the inflation close to target levels.

Right after the meeting, investors lost interest in the Euro – they decided that the regulator had already run out of fiscal tools and next time it would have to cut the rate.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

They stopped selling the Euro. Overview for 28.10.2019​

On Monday, EURUSD stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating close to week’s lows.

The major currency pair is quite calm early in the week, but there will be a lot of reasons to be more active later this week. The current quote for EURUSD is 1.1088.

There will be several events that may influence the Euro behavior. First of all, it’s a meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The key anticipated thing is whether the regulator is going to continue cutting the rate or not in the future, that’s why investors’ attention will be focused on the comments following the meeting. As for the rate decision itself, no one has any doubts that the regulator will decrease it down to 1.50-1.75% this time. However, this was already shown up in EURUSD prices, so there might be no significant fluctuations at all.

Secondly, this Friday the ECB Governor Mario Draghi will step aside from his position in favor of Christine Lagarde. Market players do not expect any serious changes in the regulator’s policy, but they are surely eager to hear first comments from Lagarde, a new head of the ECB, who is a very experienced monetary policymaker. Mid-term market expectations imply that the regulator might have to change its monetary policy earlier than predicted before due to a decline in the Euro Area GDP and a lot of targeted problems in several European countries.

There will be some statistics worth paying attention to. For example, the USA is scheduled to report on the GDP for the third quarter. Although the report isn’t likely to contain any numbers to impress investors, the market will be volatile whatever the case.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Pound is keeping balance. Overview for 29.10.2019​

On Tuesday, GBPUSD is waiting for new information on Brexit; market players are in no hurry to get back to buying.

The British Pound is consolidating against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. Investors are in no hurry to make any quick movements until there is no new information on Brexit. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2847.

Yesterday, it became known that the European Union agreed to extend the Brexit deadline until January 31st, 2020. So, the British Parliament doesn’t have to be in a rush to ratify the agreement between parties. However, according to the extension, the United Kingdom may exit the alliance at any moment prior to January 31st, as soon as the parties are ready.

It’s good news because the ratification process of those agreements reached by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brussels won’t be hasty and speedy. And that’s a good thing: who knows what else may scare British lords and how they may react to tight deadlines.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the CBI Realized Sales in the UK improved in October and was -10 points after being -16 points the month before and against the expected reading of -20 points. Growth of the indicator may show that the Retail Sales sector is reaching stability, which is quite good for the British economy.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Yen is slowly rising. Overview for 30.10.2019​

USDJPY is falling a little bit in the middle of the week; investors prefer to avoid risks in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

The Japanese Yen is getting a bit stronger against the USD on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 108.83.

In the morning, Japan published a rather interesting report on Retail Sales in September. The indicator added 9.1% y/y after showing +1.8% y/y in August; it was really expected to improve, but not by so much.

Most of all, consumers were buying general merchandise (+ 13.9%), motor vehicles (+16.9%) and machinery & equipment (+37.9%). However, it seems quite reasonable: starting October 1st, the sales tax in Japan went up from 8% to 10%, that’s why people were buying rather expensive things that were expected to get even more expensive, given the fact that Japanese households are usually very careful with spending money when the financial outlook in the country isn’t very bright.

As a result of the sales tax increase, quite a lot of money will be credited to the country’s budget, but everyone understands that the Retail Sales indicator won’t continue skyrocketing.

Investors are “dormant” today as they are waiting for the US Federal Reserve two-day meeting to be over on Wednesday night. As usual, this event tends to be pretty emotional for market players, that’s why they prefer to save strengths until some important information is released.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Fed made the American Dollar plunge again. Overview for 31.10.2019​

EURUSD is processing results of the US Federal Reserve October meeting, where the regulator cut the key rate the third time this year.

The major currency pair is rising Thursday morning in response to the Fed’s decision. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1162.

So, it was the third time this year the Fed cut its benchmark rate, now it’s 1.50-1.75%, just as expected. Eight members voted in favor of the decision and two were against. However, that’s wasn’t the point. The Fed’s comments that followed the rate decision might be perceived as readiness to take a break in loosening its monetary policy.

For example, the previous reference that it “will act as appropriate” to sustain the economic expansion was removed from the policy statement.

Meanwhile, the regulator is going to continue supporting the economy as much as it requires. The Fed said that open market operations would continue at least until the end of quarter II 2020, and Repo – until the end of January 2020.

Global investors were rather calm in their reactions to this news, but the USD went down nonetheless. However, the fact that the Fed is ready to take a break in the easing cycle means that the regulator managed to escape the White House’s pressure and will implement the monetary policy as it finds fit.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the US GDP added 1.9% q/q in the third quarter, which is better than market expectations. In the previous quarter, the economy expanded by 2.0% q/q, so the negative difference was too little and the USD avoided serious decline.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[lioneld]

I trade on EURUSD according to my Price Action trading knowledge & I was fully bullish here! Just closed my buy trade here that I opened in the last week! Now waiting to break the resistant.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Australian Dollar intends to continue rising. Overview for 01.11.2019​

AUDUSD was correcting a little bit after hitting its two months high, but right now it is ready to continue growing.

The Australian Dollar continues rising against the USD early in November. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6907.

Today’s statistics from Australia were rather minor, but the Aussie doesn’t seem upset. The AIG Manufacturing Index dropped from 54.7 points in September to 51.6 points in October, which means that managers of the largest Australian companies see signs of deterioration of market conditions. Of course, it’s not a good signal for the country.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index in Australia added 0.4% q/q in the third quarter, just as expected. As for this indicator, everything is fine, although there were no reasons to worry in the first place.

The Aussie positively responded to the statistics from China, which is the country’s key trade and economic partner. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China expanded up to 51.7 points in October after being 51.4 points in the previous month. An increase in business activity in this sector may signal that market risks regarding trade wars are going down and that‘s very good.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro plunged to its three weeks lows. Overview for 06.11.2019​

Bears continue pushing EURUSD; investors are waiting for the trade agreement.

The major currency pair slowed down its decline on Wednesday but remains pretty weak. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1076.

The key source of positive for the USD is the anticipation of the trade agreement between the USA and China, the first part of which may be concluded in the nearest future. For investors, it would mean an immediate reduction of any possible risks. These expectations are exactly what support the USD right now and make “safe haven” currencies go down.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the PPI in the Euro Area added 0.1% m/m in September after losing 0.5% m/m in August. The actual reading matched the expected one and surprised no one.

On the other hand, the statistics published by the USA in the evening were quite interesting. The final report on the Markit Services PMI showed 50.6 points in October after being 51.0 points the month before. At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI went from 52.6 points in September to 54.7 points in October. As a rule, we rely on the ISM report, which is currently showing a significant improvement in the sector. The thing that is really good is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, which increased from 50.4 points to 53.7 points.

In the afternoon, the Euro Area and some of its countries, such as Spain, Italy, France, and Germany are scheduled to publish final reports on their Manufacturing PMIs for October. Moreover, the Euro Area will report on Retail Sales in September, which is expected to be rather weak. The evening statistics from the USA are mostly minor, that’s why the key focus will remain on the US-China trade talks.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro continues falling. Overview for 07.11.2019​

EURUSD has been falling for the fourth consecutive trading session; market players are hoping for the better.

The major currency pair continues falling on Thursday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1062.

The key catalyst on the market remains the same: investors are hoping that the USA and China, who are actively working on the first phase of their trade agreement, will sign it in the nearest future. Market expectations imply November, which means that it may happen onу ща these days. This, in its turn, reduces the interest in “safe haven” assets and makes the American currency stronger.

It’s obvious that the parties, both the USA and China, need the deal. However, the time passes by, negotiations are impeded, although news media says that they keep going.

Yesterday, the Euro Area reported on the Retail Sales in September, which added 0.1% m/m, the same as expected. However, it’s worse than the August reading, which was revised upwards, from +0.3% m/m to +0.6% m/m, and that’s a good signal. Probably, season sales had their effect.

There will be a meeting of the Eurogroup today, while the European Commission is going to publish its Economic Forecasts. If there are no surprises here, the Euro will remain under pressure from the current drivers and catalysts. Later in the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Consumer Credit in September, which is expected to go from 17.9B to 15.6B.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Yen is retreating. Overview for 08.11.2019​

USDJPY intends to continue growing on Friday; investors no longer need “safe haven” assets.

At the end of the first November week, the Japanese Yen is retreating against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 109.30.

Market players are currently showing little interest in “safe haven” assets because they are sure that the USA and China will sign their trade agreement in the nearest future. In fact, these expectations are keeping them afloat for already a week, but nothing has changed so far.

The statistics published by Japan in the morning showed that the Household Spending skyrocketed in September by 9.5% y/y, which is much better than market expectations (+7.1% y/y) and the August reading (+1.0% y/y). However, it’s not surprising: most likely, consumers decided to spend a lot of money before the government introduced a new sales tax. This, in its turn, means that the October number may be pretty disappointing, at least.

Japanese consumers are very careful in their expenses and this tendency continues for years. The indicator behavior in September can easily be explained by economic uncertainty: the Bank of Japan provides stimulus to the country’s economy, but can’t jump-start economic growth.

The Leading Indicators report showed 92.2% in September, the same as expected. The month before, it was 91.9%.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

 

[RF roboforex]

The Euro starts consolidating. Overview for 11.11.2019​

The major currency pair is quite confident early in another November week.

EURUSD is no longer falling this morning; right now, it is consolidating. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1026.

Last Friday, the US President Donald Trump said that he wasn’t ready yet to consider the possibility of completely removing import tariffs on Chinese goods introduced earlier. That’s not good news, because investors are already tensed enough because of the trade agreement between these countries, which hasn’t been signed yet.

There were such rumors before: all these talks that after signing the first phase of the trade deal the parties might remove import duties on each other’s goods crashed into the White House’s tough stance.

However, right now there is neither fixed date of signing the agreement nor other nuances or details. Nevertheless, investors believe that the deal will be made in the nearest future because both the USA and China need it badly.

The USA celebrates Veterans Day today, so the markets are off. The Euro Area won’t provide any interesting statistics as well, that’s why investors in the major currency pair are left to their own devices. The European numbers that might really attract market players’ attention will be published not earlier than Thursday: the preliminary report on the Euro Area’s GDP in the third quarter of 2019.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.