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Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by RF roboforex, Aug 27, 2019.

  1. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro couldn’t hold its positions. Overview for 27.08.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, the major currency pair stopped falling but is still rather unstable.

    EURUSD reached stability after falling on Monday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1101.

    All market players are still focused on trade wars. On the sidelines of the G7 summit, US President Donald Trump said that Chinese officials were trying to resume negotiations. Rumor has it that China want to use diplomatic officials to solve the problem instead of politicians.

    It would be good, but the fact that diplomatic officials and economists haven’t been able to handle many tense situations and come to terms after 8 months is pretty alarming. Both parties did a great job in exchanging additional tariffs, slowly destroying all possible “leftovers” of trading relations that they had before.

    The economic calendar is rather empty, just like it always is at the end of the month.

    Today, investors should pay attention to the statistics on the real estate market. The USA is going to report on the HPI, which is expected to add 0.2% m/m in June, better than the month before (+0.1% m/m). consumers are still active, despite an off-season.

    Later, the USA will publish the CB Consumer Confidence for August, which may be a rather unpleasant surprise. Market expectations are 129.3 points after 135.7 points in July. Partly, it may be just a correction after the high reading in the previous month, so before drawing far-reaching conclusions one should check the components of the report.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.
     
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  3. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro is trying to find support. Overview for 29.08.2019

    The major currency pair slowed down its decline again; all eyes are on the statistics.

    On Thursday morning, EURUSD is making another attempt to keep balance and avoid freefall. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1083.

    Today, market players will be focused on statistics. In the morning, they should pay attention to the Unemployment Change in Germany for August: it may well be that the indicator will increase. Not to say it’s too negative for the European currency, but there is nothing good in it as well.

    In the afternoon, the USA is scheduled to publish the revised GDP report for the second quarter. The indicator is expected remain the same in comparison with the preliminary reading at +2.4% q/q. Any deviations from market expectations may force investors to be more active.

    It will be interesting to check the preliminary report on the Wholesale Inventories in July, which may add 0.2% m/m. If actual and expected reading s match, it will be a good signal for the USD. Apart from this, there will be another interesting report, the Pending Home Sales, which may add only 0.1% m/m in July after skyrocketing by 2.8% in June. The contracts signed in the reporting months are considered to be fulfilled in 4-8 weeks, that’s why this decline will surely influence the real estate market numbers later and that’s an unpleasant surprise. The weaker the indicator, the worse for the real estate market and the USD in the future.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.
     
  4. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro reached the lowest levels over the last 36 months. Overview for 02.09.2019

    The major currency pair updated the lows of May 2017 and is pretty ready to continue its decline.

    Early in September, EURUSD is under quite significant pressure. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0989.

    Last Friday, “greenback” improved against a lot of major traded currencies, the Euro in particular. The key reason for such high demand for the American currency is a new phase of trade wars: new tariffs earlier announced by both parties, China and the USA, came into effect on September 1st. They cover a lot of different goods, from technologies to clothing and footwear. Step by step, the wars are switching from politicians to consumers.

    Most likely, this topic, I mean fears of an escalation of mutual import tariffs, will be the most important for market players at the beginning of September. Needless to say that this situation is in favor of the USD.

    This week, investors will focus on the US labor market numbers: the country will release them starting from Wednesday with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for August to Friday with all other important readings. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, while the above-mentioned indicator from ADP may show 159K after being 164L the month before.

    Another report to be closely watched by market players is the Average Hourly Earnings, which may add 0.3% m/m in August, the same as in July. These are good numbers, which may significantly support the USD.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  5. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Australian Dollar continues rising. Overview for 04.09.2019

    AUDUSD remains “in the black” and may continue recovering.

    On Wednesday morning, the Australian Dollar is rising against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6772.

    The Aussie remains positive the statistics published in the morning were rather neutral, but it was good given the current situation. The Australian GDP added 0.5% q/q in the second quarter, the same as expected. The country’s economy didn’t regress and that’s a good point.

    At the same time, the GDP outlook is quite questionable. If the economy of China, which is Australia’s key trade and economic partner, continues slowing down, Australian numbers will be affected sooner or later.

    There are issues with Export. Due to the decline in global demand for energy commodities, Australian coal may not be sold as well as in the past and that’s a serious impact on the budget. It’s bad news, but may be only a theory so far.

    This week, Australia will report on the Trade Balance for July, which may provide answers to some of the questions.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  6. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Yen is surrendering. Overview for 12.09.2019

    USDJPY is keeping positive momentum and getting close to its six weeks highs.

    The Japanese Yen continues falling against the USD on Thursday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 107.92.

    In the morning, Japan published a lot of numbers. The first one, the Producer Price Index, lost 0.9% y/y in August after reducing by 0.6% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.8% y/y. The indicator describes the wholesale market prices and if there is a decline in it, there will be the same in the retail prices later.

    The Tertiary Industry Activity added 0.1% m/m in Japan in July, which is quite good, because it was expected to lose 0.3% m/m.

    The Core Machinery Orders became weaker as it lost 6.6% m/m in July. The indicator is rather volatile: In June, it added 13.9% m/m, but this month investors expected it to drop by 9.0% m/m. As a rule, this indicator is estimated as investments in the production sector. In case of decline, the amount of money invested in production is decreasing, which is not good for the Japanese economy.

    The Yen seldom responds to the statistics, but, of course, the numbers should be closely monitored, because they may help to predict further activities of the Bank of Japan. The current decline of the Yen rate is mostly connected with contraction in demand for “safe haven” assets.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  7. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    EURUSD will wait for decisions from the Fed. Overview for 16.09.2019

    Early in another September week, EURUSD is quite stable; major news and events are ahead.

    The major currency pair is barely moving at the beginning of another September week as investors are totally focused on the oil market. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

    Only China published several macroeconomic reports this morning; no new numbers are expected from both the USA and the Euro Area.

    This week’s major focus will be on the September meeting of the American regulator, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday and last until Wednesday evening, September 18th. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points. The White House’s pressure is too great for the regulator to continue resisting. Most likely, there will be one more rate cut by the Fed this year, probably in December. The country’s economy is surely in no need of such stimulus right now, but it may happen for political reasons.

    After that, the Fed is highly likely to take a long pause and watch the economy both inside and outside the country.

    It will be very interesting to check the comments that follow the meeting: if there must be any hints at future fiscal measures, the comments will have them. For the USD, the rate cut will be neutral, just because it is being discussed for several weeks; hence, it’s no news for investors.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  8. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    EURUSD is standing still in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. Overview for 18.09.2019

    On Wednesday, the major currency pair is barely moving; investors are saving strengths in anticipation of news from the US Federal Reserve.

    EURUSD is standing still on Wednesday morning and waiting for the FOMC meeting to be over. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1065.

    Yesterday, the USD weakened a little bit as market players were adjusting their positions before the Fed’s highly anticipated decision to cut the rate. The regulator’s September meeting will be over tonight and investors are expecting the Fed to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. As for CME (Current market expectations) that imply another rate cut until the end of this year, they are 80%. The White House is putting a lot of pressure on the Fed, hammering it for lack of activities, and believes that there should more significant rate cut than 25 basis points. Anyhow, tonight we will learn the regulator’s stance on this.

    Yesterday’s numbers from Germany supported the European currency pretty well. The ZEW Economic Sentiment went up from -44.1 points in July to -22.5 points in August. Of course, the indicator remains negative and the current correction doesn’t mean any bright future in the next 6 months, but the fact of recovery is surely positive.

    Numbers from the USA were also quite good. The Industrial Production added 0.6% m/m in August after losing 0.1% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.2% m/m. major contribution was made by machinery (+1.6%, primary metalы (+1.3%), and nonmetallic mineral products (+1.1%). However, the key problem is the same: everything in this area is very difficult to predict as long as there are trade wars between the USA and China.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  9. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Pound intends to rise. Overview for 20.09.2019

    On Friday, GBPUSD is growing towards July’s highs.

    The British Pound is trading upwards against the USD on Friday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2570.

    Yesterday, the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, just as expected. The regulator’s September meeting was over and the results were rather neutral: all 9 members voted in favor of keeping the regulator’s current monetary policy intact. The BoE Quantitative Easing remained at £435B.

    In the comments, the BoE said that the inflation might weaken in case of uncertainty around the Brexit deal. In the future, the regulator is planning to shape its monetary policy based on the Pound exchange rate and the Brexit influence on the country’s economy. As they say in the BoE, prospects of global economic growth deteriorated due to trade wars. The British labor market looks quite tight, but not weak, and that’s good.

    According to expectations, the third-quarter GDP may add 0.2%, while the CPI may remain slightly below 2.0%.

    Market players decided that this time the BoE’s comments were too soft and, given all these Brexit influences, concluded that the regulator might consider cutting the rate in the future if necessary. The Pound’s response to that was quite positive.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  10. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Yen slowed down its recovery, but may resume it at any moment. Overview for 24.09.2019

    On Tuesday morning, USDJPY stopped falling, but demand for the Yen may revive very soon.

    After yesterday’s recovery, the Japanese Yen is consolidating against the USD on Tuesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 107.52.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the Manufacturing PMI for September, which was only 48.9 points after being 49.3 points the month before and against the expected reading of 49.5 points. The last time the indicator surpassed 50 points, the level that separates optimists from pessimists, this May, but couldn’t fix above it.

    The key reasons for the current slowdown are the decline of the global economy and the expansion of trade tensions. Everything is very simple: the export-oriented Japanese economy can’t operate at 100% with global trade wars around it.

    The components of the report show that new order declined at a weaker pace with the export and import as well. All this proves that external factors are more significant than meets the eye.

    The next meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for October 31st, and the weak statistics may increase market expectations relating to the introduction of new stimulus measures.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  11. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The USD strengthened significantly. Overview for 26.09.2019

    On Thursday, the major currency pair remains under pressure after the statistics and talks about Trump’s impeachment.

    EURUSD is trying to recover on Thursday, but quite unsuccessfully so far. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0954.

    Speculations of the US President Donald Trump’s impeachment ahead that appeared yesterday resulted in the drawdown of all USD-related assets. Needless to say that under such circumstances the USD was doing great.

    Another stressful factor was Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against China because market players really counted on the quick resumption of trade talks between the parties, but it was in vain.

    The statistics published by the USA yesterday were positive and provided additional support to the American currency. The New Home Sales went up to 713K in August after being 666K the month before and against the expected reading of 652K. Investors could have been more restrained in their response to the report, but the components showed that the sales of new single-family houses improved significantly, meaning that the real estate sector was reviving: people have no problems with creditworthiness, loans are available, and the economy is feeling fine. In this light, the USD is doing more than safely and happily.

    Today, one should pay attention to the final report on the US GDP for the second quarter, which is highly expected to remain unchanged at 2%.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  12. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Australian Dollar is getting cheaper. Overview for 30.09.2019

    AUDUSD is retreating under pressure of the strengthened “greenback”.

    The Australian Dollar is losing positions against the Usd early in the week. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6752.

    The statistics published by China in the morning were mostly positive. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 points in September, which is much better than 50.4 points the month before. The Manufacturing PMI added 0.3 points this month, going from 49.5 points to 49.8 points. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped a little bit, from 53.8 points to 53.7 points.

    Numbers from China are very important for Australia, because China is its key trade and economic partner.

    The key highlight in the financial world right now is the non-resumption of US-China trade talks. While these two giant economies are dividing the world’s sales market, other participants of the global trade are suffering as well.

    Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to have another meeting, where it is highly anticipated to cut the rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. in general, the Aussie is ready for this scenario, but may fall at the time of market emotions in response to the RBA’s comments.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  13. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Australian Dollar continues falling. Overview for 01.10.2019

    On Tuesday, AUDUSD is retreating; the RBA rate decision did match expectations.

    The Australian Dollar remains week against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6734.

    This morning, the October meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over, where the regulator decided to cut the rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75% to 1.00%. However, this scenario was expected by investors, because earlier the regulator said that it would be necessary to boost the country’s economy.

    Probably, now the RBA may take a pause and view the happenings, but if the global market conditions don’t change for the better, the regulator might as well cut the rate one more time until the end of the year.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the AIG Manufacturing Index went from 53.1 points in August to 54.7 points in September. The fact that the indicator is still above 50 points, which separates decline from growth, is surely positive.

    At the moment, the thing the Aussie is mostly responding to is the USD strength, but not external news, that’s why it retreating.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  14. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Pound managed to reach stability. Overview for 02.10.2019

    After being pretty volatile on Tuesday, GBPUSD found support and is ready to consolidate.

    The British Pound has reached stability against the USD by Wednesday; the volatile Tuesday is gone. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2274.

    The Pound rose significantly during yesterday’s trading session after Bloomberg reported that “the EU had discussed giving the UK a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border”. In addition to that, there were speculations that the European Union might consider some easing of its requirements in case the United Kingdom settled for a compromise in the Irish issue.

    However, later it became known that the European Union didn’t consider this option, and that’s what made the Pound retreat.

    Everything that is somehow relating to the Brexit and complications surrounding it has a strong influence and pressure on the Pound behavior. Meanwhile, the Brexit is only 29 days away.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  15. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Pound is very volatile. Overview for 03.10.2019

    The British Pound has been pretty volatile recently; however, there is more to come.

    The British Pound is very volatile against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2293.

    It’s all about the Brexit nuances, which are moving to the forefront these days. So, the EU's Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union Michel Barnier said yesterday that there was visible progress in negotiations. The United Kingdom offered Brussels several suggestions, but they had to be fully canvassed. Barnier once again emphasized that the European Union wouldn’t accept any no-deal Brexit scenarios.

    As for London, they also mentioned that there was progress in Brexit talks and the country was ready to discuss everything in detail.

    The statistics published today showed that the Services PMI dropped to 49.5 points in September after being 50.6 points the month before and against the expectedigitalcashpalace.comd reading of 50.3 points. The decline below the psychologically crucial level of 50 points says that market sentiments in the sector, which is very sensitive to consumer demand, are getting more pessimistic. It’s a very bad signal for the British Pound and economy.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  16. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro slowed down its growth. Overview for 04.10.2019

    The major currency pair has significantly improved over this week, but investors need new catalysts.

    EURUSD slowed down its growth on Friday morning in anticipation of the statistics from the USA and speeches to be delivered by the US monetary policymakers. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0973.

    Yesterday, market players had concerns about signs of weakness in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the USA, because they might influence the global economy in general. However, maybe investors just got tired of buying and decided to wait for news.

    The news will surely be today: later in the afternoon, the USA is going to report on the labor market for September. The Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.7%, which is the same as expected. The Average Hourly Earnings is expected to add 0.3% m/m after increasing by 0.4% m/m in August, and that’s a very good result.

    Of course, investors’ attention will be focused on the Non-Farm Employment Change, which may show 145K after 130K the month before. In general, market expectations are quite favorable, and if they match actual readings, the USD may recover a bit.
    In the evening, several US Federal Reserve members are scheduled to speak, including the Chair Jerome Powell, so the major currency pair may become very volatile along towards evening.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  17. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro intends to continue rising. Overview for 07.10.2019

    On Monday, EURUSD is consolidating, but may yet resume its growth.

    The major currency pair is doing fine early in another October week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

    Last Friday, the USA published several September reports on employment, which turned out to be quite good after all. The Unemployment Rate wasn’t expected to change, but it dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which is the lowest level since 1969.

    The Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged in comparison with the August reading. However, on YoY, the indicator showed +2.9% in September after being +3.2% in the previous month. It’s not good news, but there are no reasons to worry so far. The Non-Farm Employment Change was 136K in September and it’s the lowest indicator value over the last four months. However, the August reading was revised upwards, up to 168K, and that made investors happy.

    Generally speaking, these numbers indicate that the labor market remains stable, thus preventing the recession and allowing market players operating actively. In addition to that, the statistics don’t increase the Fed’s chances to raise the rate until the end of this year and that provided additional support to the USD.

    Today, one should pay attention to the Sentix Investor Confidence for October. The indicator may decrease from -11.1 points to -12.9 points.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  18. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro is barely moving. Overview for 08.10.2019

    On Tuesday, EURUSD is barely moving; the pair is saving strengths in anticipation of news.

    The major currency pair is standing still in comparison with yesterday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

    Right now, the USD is looking stable, because the entire investment world is braced for another upcoming round of US-China trade talks. It’s not easy to predict where it may lead to, but investors have great expectations ща this event.

    In the evening, there will be a lot of numbers from the USA. For example, the country is going to report on the Producer Price Index for September, which is expected to add 0.1% m/m, the same as in August. The Core PPI may expand by 0.2% m/m after adding 0.3% m/m the month before.

    In addition to that, market players will be offered the NFIB Small Business Index report, which may show 102.6 points in September after being 103.1 points in the previous month. If small businesses do reduce their expectations and plan to become less active at the time when the buyer's interest is going down, it’s a bad signal for the American economy.

    Later in the evening, several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak. The regulator’s Chairman Jerome Powell is one of them.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  19. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Euro is fighting for yesterday’s losses. Overview for 09.10.2019

    In the middle of the week, the major currency pair is recovering after yesterday’s losses; investors are analyzing the Fed’s intentions.

    EURUSD is growing on Wednesday afternoon, but investors are very cautious. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0987.

    Demand for the USD is not as active as before, because investors’ hopes for successful trade negotiations between the USA and China are fading: there was no new information relating to the trade talks. As a result, market players switched to other assets, thus helping the major currency pair to recover.

    While delivering the speech yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told about the regulator’s intentions to expand its portfolio of government-backed securities. It is about Treasury Bills, but investors are sure to take it as some kind of “compact” QE. Powell himself explained several times that this procedure was necessary for recovering the regulator’s balance, not for supporting the financial system. Nothing was said about the program volume, but Powell mentioned that it wouldn’t be too big.

    As a result, the Fed’s “printing press” is on again. The cash liquidity will increase a bit (investors would like to know by how much and that might be announced later). In this light, the USD may fundamentally weaken a little.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  20. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Pound is looking for support. Overview for 10.10.2019

    On Thursday afternoon, GBPUSD stopped falling but may resume its decline at any moment.

    The British Pound is growing a little bit against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2227.

    The European Union and the United Kingdom continue debating on the Brexit. The current discussions are about the exact time of Britain’s exiting the alliance: right now, the time may yet be revised based on the existing deal draft. The European Council will meet on October 17th and 18th, so if the parties do have any thoughts on delaying the Brexit, they should be voiced prior to these dates.

    The United Kingdom is scheduled to publish a lot of macroeconomic reports today. For example, the August GDP report, which is not expected to increase after adding 0.3% m/m in July. Apart from this, investors will be offered the Industrial Production report, which is also expected to remain the same after adding 0.1% m/m/ the month before. The Manufacturing Production may expand by 0.1% m/m, which is worse than the July reading. The Construction Output may drop by 0.4% m/m after being +0.5% m/m in July.

    Slowdown in the British production is obvious and it’s not accidental, but looks more like a tendency. For the Pound, it’s a risk.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.
     
  21. RF roboforex

    RF roboforex

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    The Pound rose thanks to progress in Brexit talks. Overview for 11.10.2019

    On Friday morning, GBPUSD remains energetic and is ready to rise thanks to progress in Brexit talks.

    The British Pound intends to keep growing against the USD on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2450.

    The Pound skyrocketed yesterday after investors found out that the United Kingdom was ready to make significant concessions in the Brexit talks. Pat Leahy, the Irish Times editor, twitted that “there had been very significant movement from the British side on the customs issue in the Johnson-Varadkar talks”.

    Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar “held make-or-break Brexit talks”, after which market players started active debates on a possible deal soon. The “hardcore” Brexit is not a good thing for Ireland and here’s the reason why: according to the current calculations, this scenario might result in the hasty growth of unemployment, up to 7% on average. Later, it might get much worse.

    Deteriorations on the Irish labor market will be clearly seen right after implementation of the no-deal Brexit scenario and may continue for the next two years, and the Irish party would like to avoid it. That’s why any progress relating to the Brexit deal, including the Irish border, is absolutely positive for the British Pound.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.