Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EUR continues to decline. Overview for 15.04.2024

The primary currency pair is below the previous level on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0650.

The US dollar strengthened its position for two reasons. The Federal Reserve’s reactions to the US inflation data delayed the expected timing of a rate cut, pushing it back to September, and the Middle East conflict intensified.

Last week, EURUSD experienced the most significant weekly decline since 2022. US inflation figures were unambiguous: prices remain high. This situation made the Federal Reserve hesitant about its forthcoming decisions. Investors immediately shifted the likely date for an interest rate cut in this monetary cycle from June to September. It seems the Federal Reserve only has two rate cuts left for this year. For comparison, back in January, it was expected that there would be six.

The Middle East disputes are escalating to a new level, reducing risk appetite on the stock market and contributing to demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

Combined, all these factors have worked against the EURUSD, pushing the pair to its lowest value since 11 March.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP is too weak. Overview for 16.04.2024

The British pound, paired with the US dollar, attempted to recover but without success. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2437.

Yesterday’s release of US retail sales data reduced the pound’s ability to recover from its sharpest decline since June.

The UK will publish statistical data on the employment market on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. All these reports will be crucial for the Bank of England, which meticulously selects statistics for analysis. This week could significantly influence the BoE’s policy in the coming months.

Any surprises in the wages report could substantially impact the trajectory of the GBP.

Markets believe August could be when the British regulator decides to reduce the interest rate.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR halted. Overview for 17.04.2024

The primary currency pair paused its sell-off on Wednesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0624.

The market has grown weary of selling, particularly as the five-month lows have been updated repeatedly. Monetary policymakers from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were quite active yesterday, but the market has already factored in all their comments in the quotes.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated yesterday that the regulator hopes to receive more confident data on inflation stabilisation in the future. Investors interpreted his remarks literally, concluding that the Fed is not ready to cut interest rates in June and is shifting forecasts to September.

European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted the ECB's ability to adjust the pace of interest rate cuts if the Middle East conflict has a long-term impact on energy prices. The ECB is expected to make its first interest rate cut after the June meeting. Inflation in the region is confidently heading towards 2%. Market participants expect to see three rate cuts by the end of 2024.

While there is no contradiction between monetary policies, the market's reaction to Powell's remarks is evident: investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the absence of decisive action from the Fed on a global scale.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is recovering. Overview for 18.04.2024

The primary currency pair is rebounding on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0674.

The US dollar lost some strength as the market grew tired of worrying about shifting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Investors already know that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy settings will remain restrictive for some time. It is high time the EURUSD normalised.

The US dollar has recently surged as the released macroeconomic statistics confirmed the robust performance of the US economy, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate reduction in June. Additionally, the US dollar has been in demand as a safe-haven asset while the Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions.

Risk appetite is now recovering, and this is becoming more evident with the agreement among the US, Japan, and South Korea to consult on currency market issues.

Today, the market awaits weekly data on jobless claims in the US and the March report on existing home sales.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZD hit new lows. Overview for 19.04.2024

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US dollar, is declining on Friday. The current NZDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.5882.

Investors are avoiding risks, which affects the New Zealand dollar, among other factors. The geopolitical factor in the Middle East currently plays a significant role as the primary market catalyst.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive commentary pressured the NZD. Investors are considering that the Fed might not reduce interest rates this year. This situation strengthens the US dollar’s position and hurts other currencies.

This week, New Zealand released statistics indicating that inflation in Q1 dropped to 4% y/y, the lowest CPI value since summer 2021.

Meanwhile, the RBNZ’s official inflation forecast for Q1 remains at 3.8%.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is rising moderately. Overview for 22.04.2024

The primary currency pair maintains its upward trajectory on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0663.

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve have led investors to reconsider global interest rate cut timelines. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is believed to start reducing the interest rate in the mid-year.

ECB member Madis Muller stated on Friday that the regulator may cut interest rates several times by the end of the year after the initial move in June if inflation is in line with expectations. ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at the same last week without providing indications of specific timelines.

ECB official Robert Holzmann stated earlier that the ECB will likely need more time to be prepared to cut rates as aggressively as planned.

As usual, opinions differ, but this diversity of viewpoints proves positive: the market is concerned about prospects and, therefore, carefully analyses the developments.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY is falling again. Overview for 23.04.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, paused in the morning but has since resumed its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.78.

Today, the USDJPY pair reached a new 34-year high of 154.80, prompting further commentary from Japanese policymakers within the framework of verbal interventions. Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, referred to last week's meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea, saying that this trilateral meeting laid the groundwork for addressing the yen's high volatility issue. Suzuki's statement today became the strongest warning to the market.

The Bank of Japan's next meeting will be held this week, but no miracles are expected from it. The quarterly forecast on the economy and prices will be of interest. In this release, the CB should show how the yen's devaluation has influenced the economic system.

Last week, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the regulator might raise interest rates again if the yen's weakness induces sustainable growth due to higher import costs.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD is confident. Overview for 24.04.2024

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, looks promising mid-week. The current AUDUSD exchange rate is 0.6515, marking the highest level in almost two weeks.

Investors are reacting to fresh statistics on Australian inflation and believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not lower interest rates for now.

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% q/q in Q1. The figure exceeded the forecasted 3.4% level but continued to slow down for the fifth consecutive quarter. Data from earlier this week revealed the private sector's most impressive expansion in two years. Manufacturing activity in Australia approached the break-even point, while service sector activity reached its highest in three months. All this confirms that the Australian economy is stable and sturdy.

The prospect of the RBA keeping the interest rate unchanged logically supports the Aussie.

Additional support comes from the local weakness of the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR has paused. Overview for 25.04.2024

The main currency pair paused its ascent on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0705.

Nothing significant happened; the market remains highly sensitive to even the slightest changes in global sentiment.

Today, the US will release the GDP statistics for Q1 2024. The economy is expected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous 3.4%. A local slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of the year may be a normal response to some dip in activity. However, the GDP is forecasted to gain dynamics later on.

The market believes the US dollar is emerging as the most effective currency this year. Simultaneously, the fundamental performance of the US economic system compared to other countries suggests that USD could continue rising against other currencies.

The US dollar is supported by rising US government spending and high demand for the safe-haven asset. Moreover, the deflationary effect of China's economic decline buoys the USD.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR is rising smoothly. Overview for 26.04.2024

The primary currency pair demonstrates a modest increase on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0722.

The market is uncertain whether the US Federal Reserve has all the necessary arguments to lower the interest rate in the near future. Yesterday's weak US GDP release for Q1 2024 could have been a reason to soften the monetary policy if the Fed were prepared to act.

The US economy increased by only 1.6% in January-March, contrary to the expected rise of 2.5%. In Q4 last year, the GDP demonstrated a 3.4% increase.

Meanwhile, consumer demand remains high. This factor limits the Fed's actions, compelling it to await a more opportune moment to lower the rate.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with statistics. The focus is on the March Core PCE inflationary component and reports on Americans' income and spending for the previous month.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team