USD/CNY has been trading up amid the deterioration of the European debt crisis. Last quoted around 6.3700 as capital flows seek shelter into the US Dollar safe-haven status, Standard Chartered Global Research Team has revised upwards the USD-CNY forecast for 2012-13.
"For the rest of this year, two-way variability rather than clear trending is likely to drive the USD-CNY cross rate, and we lift our year-end forecast to 6.31 from 6.21 (a very marginal net weakening in the CNY in 2012). Visibility on the 2013 trajectory is particularly poor given euro-area stresses and prospective US fiscal tightening, but as a central scenario we still expect net Chinese yuan ( CNY ) gains this year, albeit rather modest (the new end-2013 forecast of 6.19 is a 1.9% CNY gain)" the Team notes.
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"For the rest of this year, two-way variability rather than clear trending is likely to drive the USD-CNY cross rate, and we lift our year-end forecast to 6.31 from 6.21 (a very marginal net weakening in the CNY in 2012). Visibility on the 2013 trajectory is particularly poor given euro-area stresses and prospective US fiscal tightening, but as a central scenario we still expect net Chinese yuan ( CNY ) gains this year, albeit rather modest (the new end-2013 forecast of 6.19 is a 1.9% CNY gain)" the Team notes.
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